The Next Pandemic: SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19

[Deranged Rhino]

4 minutes ago, shoshin said:

 

Pretty condescending. 

 

As an animal, we are wired to sense danger. That's something we can and do overcome often but it's a survival instinct hard-wired into us. Read some biological evolution books if you want to read up on it. The very good news is that as humans, we never have to do the things we are wired to do. So you can go climb a mountain, move towards the stick in the grass, etc. 

 

You're conflating a response with our "natural state". You really want to dig in on the position that it was human nature alone that made the world afraid of a virus from which 99% recover? 

Get real. Your'e all the way wrong. All the way. 

Edited May 26, 2020 by Deranged Rhino

[Taro T]

30 minutes ago, Deranged Rhino said:

 

 

NYS's # looks suspiciously low.  Wouldn't be at all surprised to find out that the actual # is closer to 50% like the rest of the country.  NY stopped counting deaths of nursing home residents as being nursing home deaths if the person died anywhere but in the nursing home.  Can't recall when that change was made (want to say mid-late April, but it might have been early May) but if everybody else is counting apples & NYS is only counting Cortlands that might explain that discrepancy.

[shoshin]

1 hour ago, Magox said:

 

 

The whole point of these stay-at-home orders was to "flatten the curve".  What was the point to "flatten the curve"?  So that the hospital systems wouldn't be overwhelmed and that patients who needed COVID care would have the care they needed.  In that regards, even at Sweden's peak, their health systems had plenty of capacity to do so.  That's it, that was the point.  Sweden accomplished that, Check mate.

 

 The people who were out and about in Sweden were not the ones' who suffered these casualties.  It was the sickest and most vulnerable who were already practicing stay-at-home practices due to their age and health conditions.

 

 

There are a bunch of demographic reasons why "Look at Sweden" is not checkmate on the US, not the least of which is how many Swedes live alone and their population density. But also others. 

 

Legally, Sweden gets a lot of credit for not locking down, but in behavior, they did something like a lot more like what we are doing right now. Most people working from home, distancing, and masks. We would do worse than Sweden per capita given our densities and population differences had we tried this but it is my hope that we do what Sweden did this fall and don't implement any more shutdowns. 

Edited May 26, 2020 by shoshin

[Magox]

This was what I was alluding to yesterday, about how some of the other flu's that we may have been contracting could potentially be providing partial immunity for COVID.

 

If so, this would be very welcome news.

 

 

 

 

[snafu]

3 hours ago, Buffalo_Gal said:

We had three live strains, but it didn't come from here! And, we messed with nothing! NOTHING I say!!
 

 

 

"Have" three live strains.

"May have had" four?

 

 

[shoshin]

 

1 hour ago, Deranged Rhino said:

 

You're conflating a response with our "natural state". You really want to dig in on the position that it was human nature alone that made the world afraid of a virus from which 99% recover? 

Get real. Your'e all the way wrong. All the way. 

 

I'll leave you to argue with your strawman. 

2 minutes ago, Magox said:

This was what I was alluding to yesterday, about how some of the other flu's that we may have been contracting could potentially be providing partial immunity for COVID.

 

If so, this would be very welcome news.

 

 

 

 

 

This goes with some other thinking that in countries where they still get the (evil) TB vaccine like India and Japan, rates of infection are lower because there's some immunity from having developed those antibodies. The articles about this are somewhere in this thread but it was interesting and scientific speculation--no proof on it yet.

[snafu]

2 hours ago, Deranged Rhino said:

It’s NOT human nature to live in fear.

 

...until any one of your teenagers/twentysomethings call you on your cell phone...

It is like a jump-scare every time one of their names pops up on my screen.

 

 

11 minutes ago, Magox said:

This was what I was alluding to yesterday, about how some of the other flu's that we may have been contracting could potentially be providing partial immunity for COVID.

 

If so, this would be very welcome news.

 

 

 

 

 

 

I've thought that about the Asian countries' infection and mortality rates.  This is a SARS-type virus and they were much more heavily exposed the first time around with SARS. I'm likely to be wrong about that, but it sounds good to me.

 

 

 

 

[Magox]

6 minutes ago, snafu said:

 

...until any one of your teenagers/twentysomethings call you on your cell phone...

It is like a jump-scare every time one of their names pops up on my screen.

 

 

 

 

I've thought that about the Asian countries' infection and mortality rates.  This is a SARS-type virus and they were much more heavily exposed the first time around with SARS. I'm likely to be wrong about that, but it sounds good to me.

 

 

 

 

 

It could be...I think there are going to be a lot of things that are going to surprise us about how and why some people, countries, demographics were affected differently than others.

 

This would be a plausible explanation.

[Magox]

24 minutes ago, shoshin said:

 

There are a bunch of demographic reasons why "Look at Sweden" is not checkmate on the US, not the least of which is how many Swedes live alone and their population density. But also others. 

 

 

 

Actually, I do think it is. Especially moving forward.  I understand why we did the stay-at-home orders considering it was a novel virus.  So I'm not criticizing that this is the route we went with, just that it was the wrong route now that we have plenty of data to make that assessment. 

 

Quote

 

The whole point of these stay-at-home orders was to "flatten the curve".  What was the point to "flatten the curve"?  So that the hospital systems wouldn't be overwhelmed and that patients who needed COVID care would have the care they needed.  In that regards, even at Sweden's peak, their health systems had plenty of capacity to do so.  That's it, that was the point.  Sweden accomplished that, Check mate.

 

 The people who were out and about in Sweden were not the ones' who suffered these casualties.  It was the sickest and most vulnerable who were already practicing stay-at-home practices due to their age and health conditions.

 

 

 

We never had any areas that weren't able to cope with the influx of COVID related hospitalizations, which was the whole rationale behind "flattening the curve".   In retrospect, protecting the most vulnerable and some additional social distancing measures would have been much more prudent than these draconian lock downs that didn't net nearly the reduction in COVID related deaths that they had hoped.

 

Now moving forward, there should be no circumstance that states reimpose stay-at-home orders knowing what we know today.   

[spartacus]

14 minutes ago, Magox said:

 

It could be...I think there are going to be a lot of things that are going to surprise us about how and why some people, countries, demographics were affected differently than others.

 

 

 

different outcomes, like below

[Deranged Rhino]

36 minutes ago, shoshin said:

I'll leave you to argue with your strawman. 

 

At least be honest about your own idiocy. You were the one who stated that it was our NATURAL state to live in fear -- then tried to run from that by conflating flight or fight with our natural state. 

 

You were wrong. That you can't admit it is your own cognitive dissonance. 

 

It's a bad look on you.

[Magox]

3 minutes ago, spartacus said:

 

different outcomes, like below

 

I do think that Republican governors had better policies in place, particularly with the Nursing home practices.   They also didn't have as stringent stay-at-home orders which I think in a sense could also be attributed to it.  If everyone is crowding into grocery stores, Costco's, Walmart's and targets then reason does seem to stand that you will have larger crowds in fewer places, as opposed to having crowds more evenly disbursed among more places to frequent.

 

But a lot of this has to do with population density and maybe heat and humidity.  But it's tough to explain away the difference of Ohio vs MI, IL and PA.

 

Or how Florida and SC with such a high population of seniors did so well.  Or Texas who has plenty of high density populations did so well comparatively to other states.

 

I do believe that Republican governors were much better than democratic governors on how they managed the crisis.

[Albwan]

11 minutes ago, spartacus said:

 

different outcomes, like below

This just shows how close an empty shell Biden is to becoming the president. 

Masses of liberals squashed into these places, many of them dependent

on the government. 

[Magox]

This would be interesting if they could demonstrably prove this to be the case.

 

 

 

[reddogblitz]

On 5/23/2020 at 2:53 PM, B-Man said:

 

We HAVE to open back up !

 

 

 

 

 

Why can't we use this excess space and people to keep the people who were diagnosed in a nursing home there until they are tested clean and quarantined?  Kill two birds.  Put those 1,4000,000 people back to work, AND drastically reduce deaths in nursing homes.

[Buffalo_Gal]

 

[meazza]

29 minutes ago, spartacus said:

 

different outcomes, like below

 

Funny, I'm not sure that BillsTime or the liberal bots will post this as part of their memes.

[3rdnlng]

15 minutes ago, reddogblitz said:

 

Why can't we use this excess space and people to keep the people who were diagnosed in a nursing home there until they are tested clean and quarantined?  Kill two birds.  Put those 1,4000,000 people back to work, AND drastically reduce deaths in nursing homes.

Panicky Governors like Andrew Cuomo who thought NYS needed an extra 30,000 ventilators and 130,000 beds ordered nursing homes to take in Covid-19 patients that no longer needed hospitalization but were still contagious. In other words, people that would have normally been sent home to be quarantined but were sent to nursing homes because of other needs. The Javits Center that was set up as a hospital and the hospital ship along with the Central Park facilities were barely used. Same with the hospital ship in LA. 

 

The medical people were put on furlough because hospitals were ordered to not do any elective procedures which is not only their money makers but actually have caused a backlog for those surgeries. We're not talking face lifts here but things like hip and non emergency heart surgery. The VA Medical Center that I go to is like a ghost building. They have doctors taking temperatures at the entrance just because they have nothing to do. 

[shoshin]

1 hour ago, Deranged Rhino said:

 

At least be honest about your own idiocy. You were the one who stated that it was our NATURAL state to live in fear -- then tried to run from that by conflating flight or fight with our natural state. 

 

You were wrong. That you can't admit it is your own cognitive dissonance. 

 

It's a bad look on you.

 

Find me where I said, "You really want to dig in on the position that it was human nature alone that made the world afraid of a virus from which 99% recover?" Otherwise just keep up your strawman discussion with yourself and general shouting at others. You seem to have the time for it while the rest of us contribute to this discussion. 

 

A good starter book on evolutionary biology would be one of Sapolsky's like Why Zebra's Don't Get Ulcers. Some of his Stanford courses are online too. Good stuff. 

 

On 5/23/2020 at 5:53 PM, B-Man said:

 

We HAVE to open back up !

 

 

 

 

 

My brother was one of these. He went from volunteering on the Covid floor ("hero") to furloughed ("zero") because most of the hospital was shut down for all but critical procedures in the span of about 4 weeks. 

Edited May 26, 2020 by shoshin

[Deranged Rhino]

5 minutes ago, shoshin said:

 

Find me where I said, "You really want to dig in on the position that it was human nature alone that made the world afraid of a virus from which 99% recover?" Otherwise just keep up your strawman discussion with yourself and general shouting at others. You seem to have the time for it while the rest of us contribute to this discussion. 

 

A good starter book on evolutionary biology would be one of Sapolsky's like Why Zebra's Don't Get Ulcers. Some of his Stanford courses are online too. Good stuff. 

 

You're being incredibly dishonest, and it's a REAL bad look on you. You're saying I created a strawman, I did no such thing. YOU did. Want to see? Here: 

 

Your first ridiculously erroneous statement: 

 

5 hours ago, shoshin said:

The prediction business on Covid is driven by a lot of hype. Party is not relevant. Just human nature to live in fear. 

 

Which I called out as false, because it is. It's not human nature to "live in fear". That's entirely incorrect. 

 

3 hours ago, shoshin said:

 

It is human nature to live in fear. It is biologically part of us as part of our survival mechanism. 

 

 

You try to push it again -- but are completely wrong. You almost start to use a strawman, by conflating a biological RESPONSE with OUR NATURAL STATE. 

 

Then you go all in here: 

 

3 hours ago, shoshin said:

 

Humans before the most recent generations lived because they saw a stick in the grass and moved away from it because they thought it might be a snake. Biologically, we fire up our fight/flight response at the slightest danger and are constantly on alert for danger.

 

We are not biologically wired well to live in the current safe atmosphere we live in, which is almost entirely not fraught with danger. We run at low level anxiety that is biologically very bad for us: "Zebras don't get ulcers." 

 

We are human and have the ability to push against our biology but it's still how we are naturally wired. 

 

 

So again, you're wrong. And now projecting your pathetic strawman on me. 

 

Bad look, dude. 

 

Human's natural state is not to live in fear, certainly not from a virus which has a recovery rate of over 99%. Only something ARTIFICIAL injected into our discourse can cause that kind of UNNATURAL reaction to something.