The Next Pandemic: SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19

[billsfan1959]

2 minutes ago, Tiberius said:

Texas is turning into a hotspot 

 

https://thehill.com/homenews/coronavirus-report/497509-texas-sees-1000-new-coronavirus-cases-for-5-days-in-a-row

 

More testing, more new cases. The article said nothing about the rate of new cases, hospitalizations related to reopening, deaths related to reopening.

 

Also, let's overlook the fact that they rank 38th among states in cases per 1 million and 39th in deaths per 1 million.

 

But, yeah, hotspot....

[Tiberius]

1 minute ago, billsfan1959 said:

 

More testing, more new cases. The article said nothing about the rate of new cases, hospitalizations related to reopening, deaths related to reopening.

 

Also, let's overlook the fact that they rank 38th among states in cases per 1 million and 39th in deaths per 1 million.

 

But, yeah, hotspot....

Yes, more cases, noth8ng to see there, wow 

[Reality Check]

We must obey big pharma and those who are invested in them...or else. We are being treated like hostages.

[billsfan1959]

Just now, Tiberius said:

Yes, more cases, noth8ng to see there, wow 

 

You do understand that, as testing increases, the number of new cases increases, right? 

 

What matters is the rate of new positive cases, hospitalizations and deaths - none of which were addressed in the article.

 

But, hey, why let facts get in the way of your fear mongering....

[Tiberius]

If the WH buries CDC guidelines, will the virus care? 

 

https://www.the-sun.com/news/823423/white-house-buried-cdc-against-summer-vacation/

 

We seriously have a president silencing scientists. Make America Great Again, fire this total d bag POS president and send him away. 

5 minutes ago, billsfan1959 said:

 

You do understand that, as testing increases, the number of new cases increases, right? 

 

What matters is the rate of new positive cases, hospitalizations and deaths - none of which were addressed in the article.

 

But, hey, why let facts get in the way of your fear mongering....

And as the number of cases increase, the number of cases increases. Right? 

[Reality Check]

4 minutes ago, Tiberius said:

If the WH buries CDC guidelines, will the virus care? 

 

https://www.the-sun.com/news/823423/white-house-buried-cdc-against-summer-vacation/

 

We seriously have a president silencing scientists. Make America Great Again, fire this total d bag POS president and send him away. 

And as the number of cases increase, the number of cases increases. Right? 

This over selling of fear is getting old. The worst part is that you don't even believe your own words. Are you on Bloomberg's payroll?

[billsfan1959]

5 minutes ago, Tiberius said:

And as the number of cases increase, the number of cases increases. Right? 

 

Way to grasp the obvious, Tibs. Now, please tell us how the identification of new cases, with no other information or context, indicates an increase in the rate of new positive cases, hospitalizations, and deaths.

[plenzmd1]

26 minutes ago, shoshin said:

 

Sweden:

 

- Never shut down like we did so there's nothing to watch on reopening

- has a single city of less than 1M people with the remaining pop of 9M spread out over a country as big as CA 

- nearly 50% of its population lives alone (about double that of US)

- homogenous population (50% of Swedes trace their heritage to 10 generations or more of Swedes!)

- limited temperature zone

 

It's a good data point but it's just not as good as Germany. We will make our own data because we are different but I think Germany is a closer metric to the US. 

 

I also have a gut feel that I can't link to but that's been discussed in literature and via WhatsApp with my Sweden friends that Swedes are much more compliant with distancing, working from home, etc. even though they are technically open. Here we have people saying masks don't work and holding rallies. 

 

The never shut down i think is very relevant, and should be compared to our numbers..for the very reason its like A/B testing. What is working better..if net net infection, deaths, etc are similar, yet they are building immunity...you know what I mean.

 

But i take your points on the differences as well

 

 

25 minutes ago, Tiberius said:

Texas is turning into a hotspot 

 

https://thehill.com/homenews/coronavirus-report/497509-texas-sees-1000-new-coronavirus-cases-for-5-days-in-a-row

 

15 minutes ago, Tiberius said:

Yes, more cases, noth8ng to see there, wow 

I take it as good news cases going up if hospitalizations and deaths are raising at same rate.

[Tiberius]

Just now, billsfan1959 said:

 

Way to grasp the obvious, Tibs. Now, please tell us how the identification of new cases, with no other information or context, indicates an increase in the rate of new positive cases, hospitalizations, and deaths.

Yes, it's pretty easy thing to do, then a Trump supporters reads it and sees something else, a Plot! Rising numbers only mean something else! 

[billsfan1959]

Just now, Tiberius said:

Yes, it's pretty easy thing to do, then a Trump supporters  hater reads it and sees something else, a Plot! Rising numbers only mean something else! 

 

FIFY

[GG]

2 minutes ago, shoshin said:

 

Sweden:

 

- Never shut down like we did so there's nothing to watch on reopening

- has a single city of less than 1M people with the remaining pop of 9M spread out over a country as big as CA 

- nearly 50% of its population lives alone (about double that of US)

- homogenous population (50% of Swedes trace their heritage to 10 generations or more of Swedes!)

- limited temperature zone

 

It's a good data point but it's just not as good as Germany. We will make our own data because we are different but I think Germany is a closer metric to the US. 

 

 

For starters, it's a bit disingenuous to throw out Stockholm as a good sample area because its population is less than 1 million.  Any reasonable person would think that a population of 975K is close enough for government work.  Never mind that the metropolitan Stockholm consists of 2.4 million in a very concentrated area.

 

Homogeneity of the population should be irrelevant for a virus that'` not supposed to respect national boundaries.  In any event, Sweden's homogeneity shouldn't be too dissimilar to other Nordics.

 

Finally, it's immaterial that they never shut down to watching the data, because they are a very good sample size to see what happens without a total shutdown.   The main difference it seems is their hospitals aren't being inundated, which is the most important statistic to watch in the outbreak.  But, in the end, it's very likely that the data points will converge in the shut-down vs no-shutdown countries.  The difference will be that Sweden's economy won't be dessimated.

[SoCal Deek]

43 minutes ago, plenzmd1 said:

I would love for you tpo post links to these numbers..i think  they are relevant, and I am not questioning them...just want to be able to prove it to people

You just have to go to the CDC website. They’re updated on a weekly basis. They have this thing broken blown by every possible metric: by state, by age, by week, by gender....even by race I think

[shoshin]

18 minutes ago, GG said:

 

For starters, it's a bit disingenuous to throw out Stockholm as a good sample area because its population is less than 1 million.  Any reasonable person would think that a population of 975K is close enough for government work.  Never mind that the metropolitan Stockholm consists of 2.4 million in a very concentrated area.

 

Homogeneity of the population should be irrelevant for a virus that'` not supposed to respect national boundaries.  In any event, Sweden's homogeneity shouldn't be too dissimilar to other Nordics.

 

Finally, it's immaterial that they never shut down to watching the data, because they are a very good sample size to see what happens without a total shutdown.   The main difference it seems is their hospitals aren't being inundated, which is the most important statistic to watch in the outbreak.  But, in the end, it's very likely that the data points will converge in the shut-down vs no-shutdown countries.  The difference will be that Sweden's economy won't be dessimated.

Sweden is interesting but it is different. I’m not discounting it as much as you seem to be making me do it. I note the differences and that DE is a better comparison. 

[Magox]

5 hours ago, daz28 said:

Bro I love ya, and I love your positivity, but 85k Americans said no.  There's no way we learned anything about a novel virus in 6 months.  You might be right about some things, but ya might be dead wrong, too. 

 

85k in the grand scheme of things is not a reason to sacrifice what will arguably many more deleterious shut down related deaths.  The targeted approach that I suggested would be much more wise.  But it's ok to disagree, that's why we have this forum.

 

 

In any case, this came out recently.

 

UNICEF Chief of health today said:

 

Quote

Unicef warns lockdown could kill more than Covid-19 as model predicts 1.2 million child deaths     'Indiscriminate lockdowns' are an ineffective way to control Covid and could contribute to a 45 per cent rise in child mortality

 

[Reality Check]

3 minutes ago, shoshin said:

Sweden is interesting but it is different. I’m not discounting it as much as you seem to be making me do it. I note the differences and that DE is a better comparison. 

Have you ever done work for the Tavistock Institute?

[GG]

Just now, Magox said:

 

85k in the grand scheme of things is not a reason to sacrifice what will arguably many more deleterious shut down related deaths.  The targeted approach that I suggested would be much more wise.  But it's ok to disagree, that's why we have this forum.

 

 

In any case, this came out recently.

 

UNICEF Chief of health today said:

 

 

 

Anecdotal evidence on deaths of despair is starting to come in now - suicides are trending up.   Spousal & child abuse is up.   Every thinking person predicted this and knows it will continue to get worse until the lockdowns end.

[Magox]

2 minutes ago, GG said:

 

Anecdotal evidence on deaths of despair is starting to come in now - suicides are trending up.   Spousal & child abuse is up.   Every thinking person predicted this and knows it will continue to get worse until the lockdowns end.

 

 

I just want to lay out a scenario and weave a story for a second.  But it's based off data.

 

Imagine you have families and lets say parents who are alcoholics.   

 

Now let's say those parents are now stuck at home without a job.

 

Let's say those parents have children who they have to homeschool.

 

Let's say that these parents who are alcoholics are depressed at home without jobs, and we know that alcohol sales are surging.

 

So now, you have a depressed parent, who is out of work, and in their view stuck all day with their kids, losing patience, having to homeschool which they have never done, drinking more alcohol.

 

What could go wrong?

 

I have no doubt that there is a huge untold story of child and spousal abuse that is going on.  

[GG]

1 minute ago, Magox said:

 

 

I just want to lay out a scenario and weave a story for a second.  But it's based off data.

 

Imagine you have families and lets say parents who are alcoholics.   

 

Now let's say those parents are now stuck at home without a job.

 

Let's say those parents have children who they have to homeschool.

 

Let's say that these parents who are alcoholics are depressed at home without jobs, and we know that alcohol sales are surging.

 

So now, you have a depressed parent, who is out of work, and in their view stuck all day with their kids, losing patience, having to homeschool which they have never done, drinking more alcohol.

 

What could go wrong?

 

I have no doubt that there is a huge untold story of child and spousal abuse that is going on.  

 

It's not untold.   It's ignored when it's told, because we're only supposed to have linear thinking in a complex world.  People shouldn't forget how Cuomo totally blew off this line of thinking as recently as 2 weeks ago!   

 

Quote

Child welfare advocates say they're concerned that child abuse and neglect may have increased sharply on Long Island during the coronavirus lockdown, as cases go unreported because kids no longer are around teachers, coaches and others who must report signs of abuse. 

 

Hey look at this, finally a correlation to child deaths from WUHAN

 

Quote

 

Doctors at Cook Children’s believe the stresses from the COVID-19 pandemic are linked to nine cases of severe child abuse seen at the hospital since March 17, 2020. Three of those children have died. Typically, Cook Children’s sees this many such cases over the course of a month

All of the children admitted were 4 years old and under.

 

 

[Tiberius]

Trump WH refusing any oversight at all of their response to the biggest health care disaster in the last 100 years. UnAmerican, unethical, totally unacceptable. This is our government, not the Trump cult's personal office 

[Magox]

Just now, GG said:

 

It's not untold.   It's ignored when it's told, because we're only supposed to have linear thinking in a complex world.  People shouldn't forget how Cuomo totally blew off this line of thinking as recently as 2 weeks ago!   

 

 

Hey look at this, finally a correlation to child deaths from WUHAN

 

 

 

 

Yeah, I am aware that there are accounts of it but when I say untold I mean that it is not a story where nearly enough light is being shed on.