shoshin Posted May 14, 2020 Posted May 14, 2020 4 minutes ago, plenzmd1 said: why not Sweeden? Sweden isn't reopening so there's no trend to watch for in their numbers. Also, Sweden is a super tiny and spread out place with a population that doesn't live like us.
SoCal Deek Posted May 14, 2020 Posted May 14, 2020 3 minutes ago, shoshin said: It's time to reopen with the distancing, masks, etc. in place. Watching Germany the closest. They have a population that will do the right things, they test well, and they are ahead of us on the timeline. So far things look OK there--stable (not decreasing) but that's OK. If we sit at stable now as we reopen, that's good. The next hurdles will happen in the fall. Comparing the US to other countries is of course a start, but still brings in many variables that are far too difficult to catalog and isolate. We also have other areas right here in the US that we can look at. As I’ve reported all along, this was primarily a problem for the region (not even entire states) surrounding NY City. The remainder of this vast nation hasn’t experienced anything that would be cause for such control measures.
shoshin Posted May 14, 2020 Posted May 14, 2020 1 minute ago, GG said: Or CO & GA? I'm just thinking Germany is a larger sample size and they are further ahead of us on the timing. GA is a good measure domestically in the next 4 weeks. 1 minute ago, SoCal Deek said: Comparing the US to other countries is of course a start, but still brings in many variables that are far too difficult to catalog and isolate. We also have other areas right here in the US that we can look at. As I’ve reported all along, this was primarily a problem for the region (not even entire states) surrounding NY City. The remainder of this vast nation hasn’t experienced anything that would be cause for such control measures. For sure NYC got hit hardest and the worst. There is no place like it in the US.
BringBackFergy Posted May 14, 2020 Posted May 14, 2020 I said this same thing a few weeks ago in the SB “We flattened the f#%! out of the curve” 2
plenzmd1 Posted May 14, 2020 Posted May 14, 2020 2 minutes ago, shoshin said: Sweden isn't reopening so there's no trend to watch for in their numbers. Also, Sweden is a super tiny and spread out place with a population that doesn't live like us. not quite sure what you mean? You mean cause they did not lockdown their numbers are irrelevant? 1 1
GG Posted May 14, 2020 Posted May 14, 2020 2 minutes ago, shoshin said: Sweden isn't reopening so there's no trend to watch for in their numbers. Also, Sweden is a super tiny and spread out place with a population that doesn't live like us. 1 minute ago, shoshin said: I'm just thinking Germany is a larger sample size and they are further ahead of us on the timing. GA is a good measure domestically in the next 4 weeks. Sweden is not tiny. It's more like Canada with heavy population clusters and wide open space everywhere else. Stockholm is fairly dense, and should be a good tell for any major metro area. Why do we need to wait 4 more weeks for the GA result? i read here that a 1-day "spike" in deaths 2 days after some areas open up for business is all the data that they need.
SoCal Deek Posted May 14, 2020 Posted May 14, 2020 1 minute ago, shoshin said: I'm just thinking Germany is a larger sample size and they are further ahead of us on the timing. GA is a good measure domestically in the next 4 weeks. Looking at all of this with State wide models is all glossing over the issue. We have way more data than that. Out here in California we have ONE county, Los Angeles county, with any significant numbers (and even those don’t come anywhere near NYC). When I looked at the states website yesterday, Sacramento county....bigger than Buffalo metro area...had ZERO people in the hospital.
billsfan1959 Posted May 14, 2020 Posted May 14, 2020 4 hours ago, daz28 said: It might literally infect almost everyone as you said, but lets say it infects only half of us for arguments sake. Then let's say 50% of those are asymptomatic, and hopefully develop antibodies, and we go with 1% mortality. Fair enough numbers, right. That's 875, 000 deaths. That smashes almost 4 years of World War 2 deaths by 5 times in months, not years. Will we reach that total? Likely not, but social distancing may have been what kept those numbers from becoming real. Are we in a position to say 200k deaths isn't realistic? I'm not so sure. If we can handle 4 or 5 years of world war, we can handle a few more weeks of lockdown. At 85k deaths in 2 months, the "it's only a flu" clueless crew need to stfu, an put their mask on. I wish people would stop waving the flag, because it won't make this go away, nor will it make anything better. I think you must be related to jrober38... Or maybe you are jrober38
shoshin Posted May 14, 2020 Posted May 14, 2020 (edited) 7 minutes ago, GG said: Sweden is not tiny. It's more like Canada with heavy population clusters and wide open space everywhere else. Stockholm is fairly dense, and should be a good tell for any major metro area. Stockholm doesn't even have 1M people. The remaining 10M people in the entire country are spread over an area similar in size to California. Plus they have an amazingly high % population that lives alone. I love Sweden and go there 1-2 times a year for business but it's not as good of a comparison as Germany. Quote Why do we need to wait 4 more weeks for the GA result? i read here that a 1-day "spike" in deaths 2 days after some areas open up for business is all the data that they need. I suspect you know that's not true but there are some people here who won't take a Covid vaccine so I'm not sure. Exponential growth means you will see growth after several cycles. Hopefully we don't see the spike. GA looks pretty good right now, which is excellent news. I'm curious how things are going in Atlanta particularly. Edited May 14, 2020 by shoshin
GG Posted May 14, 2020 Posted May 14, 2020 5 hours ago, daz28 said: It might literally infect almost everyone as you said, but lets say it infects only half of us for arguments sake. Then let's say 50% of those are asymptomatic, and hopefully develop antibodies, and we go with 1% mortality. Fair enough numbers, right. That's 875, 000 deaths. That smashes almost 4 years of World War 2 deaths by 5 times in months, not years. Will we reach that total? Likely not, but social distancing may have been what kept those numbers from becoming real. Are we in a position to say 200k deaths isn't realistic? I'm not so sure. If we can handle 4 or 5 years of world war, we can handle a few more weeks of lockdown. At 85k deaths in 2 months, the "it's only a flu" clueless crew need to stfu, an put their mask on. I wish people would stop waving the flag, because it won't make this go away, nor will it make anything better. Where in the world are you pulling these numbers from. If anything, all the data suggests that the real mortality rate is closer to 0.5%, and very likely will drop to 0.1% flu rate. What's more important, the at-risk population is much more identifiable than it is for the flu, which makes it easier to try to protect those at risk. If stay at home and social distancing really worked, how in the world do you get 67% of NYC cases from people who were "self-isolated" at home? 1 2
Reality Check Posted May 14, 2020 Posted May 14, 2020 30 minutes ago, shoshin said: Actually the way it works is you not taking a vaccine for a highly contagious disease affects others. That's why the US government required smallpox vaccinations. You might have to hole up in the bunker and get your food delivered through a slot but you'll be free! If you are vaccinated, then how could I possibly affect you, unless you yourself doubt the efficacy of the vaccine? Also, I don't have to be holed up in a bunker since I never was in the first place, unless that is a threat that if I don't comply the Stasi will come "take care of me". Your authoritarian side is obvious. Your fear is justification to control my life apparently. Instead of a barcode tattooed on my arm, it will be on my cell phone and that makes it all better. The more things change, the more they stay the same. If in the rare instance I have a bad reaction to the vaccine, does the vaccine company remain immune from damages?
plenzmd1 Posted May 14, 2020 Posted May 14, 2020 (edited) 17 minutes ago, shoshin said: Stockholm doesn't even have 1M people. The remaining 10M people in the entire country are spread over an area similar in size to California. Plus they have an amazingly high % population that lives alone. I love Sweden and go there 1-2 times a year for business but it's not as good of a comparison as Germany. I suspect you know that's not true but there are some people here who won't take a Covid vaccine so I'm not sure. Exponential growth means you will see growth after several cycles. Hopefully we don't see the spike. GA looks pretty good right now, which is excellent news. I'm curious how things are going in Atlanta particularly. okay, you will have to explain to me why a sample set with 1.4M people living in a densely populated city is not a good comparison. https://worldpopulationreview.com/world-cities/stockholm-population/ In this list of population density in the us, outside of the NYC region i dont see any higher than Stockholm at 13K per square mile https://www.governing.com/gov-data/population-density-land-area-cities-map.html Edited May 14, 2020 by plenzmd1 2
SoCal Deek Posted May 14, 2020 Posted May 14, 2020 More facts as of last week: Since February 1st there have been 850,000 deaths in America of which approximately 55,000 are attributed solely to Covid 19 Since February 1st, of those 55,000 Covid deaths, 43,000 were people over 60 years old. And 32,000 were people over 75 years old. Since February 1st, of those 55,000 Covid deaths....a grand total of SIX school aged children have died from the virus. You can do what you want with the facts. 1
Pine Barrens Mafia Posted May 14, 2020 Posted May 14, 2020 1 hour ago, plenzmd1 said: Who’s stopping you from voting where you want to? It's more about NOT allowing people to vote by mail, man. You know that's rife with fraud. 1
plenzmd1 Posted May 14, 2020 Posted May 14, 2020 2 minutes ago, SoCal Deek said: More facts as of last week: Since February 1st there have been 850,000 deaths in America of which approximately 55,000 are attributed solely to Covid 19 Since February 1st, of those 55,000 Covid deaths, 43,000 were people over 60 years old. And 32,000 were people over 75 years old. Since February 1st, of those 55,000 Covid deaths....a grand total of SIX school aged children have died from the virus. You can do what you want with the facts. I would love for you tpo post links to these numbers..i think they are relevant, and I am not questioning them...just want to be able to prove it to people Just now, Joe in Winslow said: It's more about NOT allowing people to vote by mail, man. You know that's rife with fraud. No I don't, but not he right forum to argue it
billsfan1959 Posted May 14, 2020 Posted May 14, 2020 16 minutes ago, GG said: Where in the world are you pulling these numbers from. If anything, all the data suggests that the real mortality rate is closer to 0.5%, and very likely will drop to 0.1% flu rate. What's more important, the at-risk population is much more identifiable than it is for the flu, which makes it easier to try to protect those at risk. If stay at home and social distancing really worked, how in the world do you get 67% of NYC cases from people who were "self-isolated" at home? There is a fifth dimension of ridiculousness beyond that which is known to man. It is a dimension as vast as space and as timeless as infinity. It is the middle ground between shadow and complete darkness, between lack of knowledge and willful ignorance, and it lies between the pit of man's fears and the summit of his ability to completely distort reality. This is the dimension of complete lunacy. It is an area which we call the daz28 Zone. 3
Reality Check Posted May 14, 2020 Posted May 14, 2020 This tyrannical reaction to the so called pandemic is extreme. Forced vaccinations or you are under house arrest, if not worse. Contact tracing funded by Bloomberg, but of course none of this is political.
shoshin Posted May 14, 2020 Posted May 14, 2020 (edited) 9 minutes ago, plenzmd1 said: okay, you will have to explain to me why a sample set with 1.4M people living in a densely populated city is not a good comparison. In this list of population density in the us, outside of the NYC region i dont see any higher than Stockholm at 13K per square mile https://www.governing.com/gov-data/population-density-land-area-cities-map.html Sweden: - Never shut down like we did so there's nothing to watch on reopening - has a single city of less than 1M people with the remaining pop of 9M spread out over a country as big as CA - nearly 50% of its population lives alone (about double that of US) - homogenous population (50% of Swedes trace their heritage to 10 generations or more of Swedes!) - limited temperature zone It's a good data point but it's just not as good as Germany. We will make our own data because we are different but I think Germany is a closer metric to the US. I also have a gut feel that I can't link to but that's been discussed in literature and via WhatsApp with my Sweden friends that Swedes are much more compliant with distancing, working from home, etc. even though they are technically open. Here we have people saying masks don't work and holding rallies. Edited May 14, 2020 by shoshin
Tiberius Posted May 14, 2020 Posted May 14, 2020 Texas is turning into a hotspot https://thehill.com/homenews/coronavirus-report/497509-texas-sees-1000-new-coronavirus-cases-for-5-days-in-a-row
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