The Next Pandemic: SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19

[Boatdrinks]

31 minutes ago, daz28 said:

It seems from what you're saying the infection rate is likely ridiculously high, is that correct?  How would you compare it to most flu's from the data you've seen?  6 times?  People tend to focus on mortality rate, but a high infection rate makes that number far worse than it really is.  That's the thing I think most people don't understand.  say you're playing cards, and if you get the Jack of hearts you die.  No big deal, except no one told you had to draw 5 cards. 

Mortality rate is the most important factor, as the asymptomatic rate is so high. Reality says the chances of death from Covid 19 are relatively low. Now, the chances that you, me or any other individual is not going to be infected ? I’d say that chance  is low. A high percentage of new cases here in NY report that they’ve been self isolating. Virtually everyone is going to be infected, it’s just a matter of when. We’re just shifting dates around with these lockdowns . 

1 hour ago, Buffalo_Gal said:

The US has cracked 10M tests (Trump is on right now).

 

Saw that. Went for my tests yesterday ( both PCR and antibody ). The antibody test isn’t part of Cuomo’s formula here in NY so that one was just curiosity. Got the PCR test to help County get their testing numbers up. It took less than 5 minutes to drive through and I was the only car at the drive through site other than the health personnel and security. Results in 3-5 days and you check online. 

[Magox]

1 hour ago, daz28 said:

It seems from what you're saying the infection rate is likely ridiculously high, is that correct?  How would you compare it to most flu's from the data you've seen?  6 times?  People tend to focus on mortality rate, but a high infection rate makes that number far worse than it really is.  That's the thing I think most people don't understand.  say you're playing cards, and if you get the Jack of hearts you die.  No big deal, except no one told you had to draw 5 cards. 

 

On one hand the bad news is that’s it’s highly infectious on the other hand it’s not nearly as lethal as feared.   On balance it’s more good than bad.

 

As a society we need to recognize that a ***** virus came to us from China.  And that luckily it’s not nearly as deadly as initially feared and that the deleterious effects of a shut down or extreme social distancing policies are very likely net worse than the virus itself.  And that we should be guided by the data which tells us that people under 65 are as safe as if they were to get the flu and that we need to get back to as normalized of a society as possible while doing everything we can to protect the front line workers and those that are most vulnerable.   

 

Doesn’t look great but every single metric is better than it was one week ago.  More testing, less positive tests, lower positive test rates and less deaths.   The trend is going in the right direction 

[shoshin]

 

44 minutes ago, Boatdrinks said:

Mortality rate is the most important factor, as the asymptomatic rate is so high.

 

Hospitalization rate will control how fast we can reopen. 

 

44 minutes ago, Boatdrinks said:

 

Saw that. Went for my tests yesterday ( both PCR and antibody ). 

 

Did PCR yesterday, antibody tomorrow. 

[Boatdrinks]

14 minutes ago, shoshin said:

 

 

Hospitalization rate will control how fast we can reopen. 

 

 

Did PCR yesterday, antibody tomorrow. 

It will, but I don’t like it. Hospital capacity should be most important consideration for that. Hospitalization is purely dependent on who is getting Coronavirus, not how many. Cuomo’s benchmarks are too stringent and I’m not confident Erie will hit them in time to save us from economic ruin. Going to be heading to Ohio to get a haircut in the next week or so. 

[shoshin]

If a vaccine comes out soon and was available, recommended by the CDC and doctors, would you take it?

 

Assume there will be Twitter rumors about autism and other noise like that floating around because of course that will be true. 

Edited May 14, 2020 by shoshin

[RiotAct]

Just now, shoshin said:

If a vaccine comes out next month and was avsilabile, recommended by the CDC and doctors, would you take it?

 

Assume there will be Twitter rumors about autism and other noise like that floating around because of course that will be true. 

I would.  Hell, yes.

[Buffalo Bills Fan]

My uncle telling me earlier police abusing there power sadly. Saw some thing's online it is bad. Shooting people when sleeping. Or wake up to it. Don't support any of that. Hate it people go thru that.  That's getting bad.

[shoshin]

16 minutes ago, Buffalo Bills Fan said:

My uncle telling me earlier police abusing there power sadly. Saw some thing's online it is bad. Shooting people when sleeping. Or wake up to it. Don't support any of that. Hate it people go thru that.  That's getting bad.

 

Whatcha drinkin?

 

Edited May 14, 2020 by shoshin

[Reality Check]

40 minutes ago, shoshin said:

If a vaccine comes out soon and was available, recommended by the CDC and doctors, would you take it?

 

Assume there will be Twitter rumors about autism and other noise like that floating around because of course that will be true. 

Nope.

[Justice]

15 hours ago, Reality Check said:

This whole thing is a charade as globalism dies. The media know it, the administration knows it, but you won't until probably next year.

I agree with that part. We’ll know more after the elections. 
 

11 hours ago, Reality Check said:

I am very happy for your mother's friend. Unfortunately, you provided a very short list, and Hollywood people don't count. I am just surprised we are not hear about the many thousands of survivors and their complete experiences. It would be informative.

True. I wonder why that is. Also I’d like to know

more about how people contracted it. 
 

7 hours ago, 3rdnlng said:

The hospitals also have serious financial incentive to put patients on a ventilator. Pay is $13000 for a hospitalized Covid-19 patient. $39000 if they are put on a ventilator. What would Gloria Akilitus do?

 

 

I’ve been hearing this quite frequently but never seen proof. 
 

40 minutes ago, shoshin said:

If a vaccine comes out soon and was available, recommended by the CDC and doctors, would you take it?

 

Assume there will be Twitter rumors about autism and other noise like that floating around because of course that will be true. 

eventually. I will not be the first in line. That much I know. More like the back end. Way back. 

On a side note a friend of mine’s father that I mentioned here a ways back passed away. I don’t have any details. I don’t know what they gave him. I do know he was on a ventilator. He fought it for over 40 days. Finally succumbed to it yesterday. 

[RiotAct]

 

[Doc Brown]

4 hours ago, Magox said:

 

On one hand the bad news is that’s it’s highly infectious on the other hand it’s not nearly as lethal as feared.   On balance it’s more good than bad.

 

As a society we need to recognize that a ***** virus came to us from China.  And that luckily it’s not nearly as deadly as initially feared and that the deleterious effects of a shut down or extreme social distancing policies are very likely net worse than the virus itself.  And that we should be guided by the data which tells us that people under 65 are as safe as if they were to get the flu and that we need to get back to as normalized of a society as possible while doing everything we can to protect the front line workers and those that are most vulnerable.   

 

Doesn’t look great but every single metric is better than it was one week ago.  More testing, less positive tests, lower positive test rates and less deaths.   The trend is going in the right direction 

Good news.  I'm not an epidemiologist but I think the main reason for the decrease in deaths are people increasingly wearing masks when hiking. 

[Deranged Rhino]

Just now, Deranged Rhino said:

FBI seized files from Burr’s office tonight... 

This is regarding the insider trading allegations. 

[shoshin]

1 hour ago, Reality Check said:

Nope.

Why not?

[GG]

5 hours ago, Magox said:

 

.   The trend is going in the right direction 

 

Or more correctly, the data is starting to catch up with reality

[Buffalo Bills Fan]

2 hours ago, shoshin said:

 

Whatcha drinkin?

 

 

Ya I am still am. 

 

Just hate when people over abuse there powers on people. No reason for any of it.

[daz28]

8 hours ago, Boatdrinks said:

Mortality rate is the most important factor, as the asymptomatic rate is so high. Reality says the chances of death from Covid 19 are relatively low. Now, the chances that you, me or any other individual is not going to be infected ? I’d say that chance  is low. A high percentage of new cases here in NY report that they’ve been self isolating. Virtually everyone is going to be infected, it’s just a matter of when. We’re just shifting dates around with these lockdowns . 

 

It might literally infect almost everyone as you said, but lets say it infects only half of us for arguments sake.  Then let's say 50% of those are asymptomatic, and hopefully develop antibodies,  and we go with 1% mortality.  Fair enough numbers, right.  That's 875, 000 deaths. That smashes almost 4 years of World War 2 deaths by 5 times in months, not years. Will we reach that total?  Likely not, but social distancing may have been what kept those numbers from becoming real.  Are we in a position to say 200k deaths isn't realistic?   I'm not so sure.  If we can handle 4 or 5 years of world war, we can handle a few more weeks of lockdown.  At 85k deaths in 2 months, the "it's only a flu" clueless crew need to stfu, an put their mask on. I wish people would stop waving the flag, because it won't make this go away, nor will it make anything better.  

[daz28]

8 hours ago, Magox said:

 

On one hand the bad news is that’s it’s highly infectious on the other hand it’s not nearly as lethal as feared.   On balance it’s more good than bad.

 

As a society we need to recognize that a ***** virus came to us from China.  And that luckily it’s not nearly as deadly as initially feared and that the deleterious effects of a shut down or extreme social distancing policies are very likely net worse than the virus itself.  And that we should be guided by the data which tells us that people under 65 are as safe as if they were to get the flu and that we need to get back to as normalized of a society as possible while doing everything we can to protect the front line workers and those that are most vulnerable.   

 

Doesn’t look great but every single metric is better than it was one week ago.  More testing, less positive tests, lower positive test rates and less deaths.   The trend is going in the right direction 

Isolating and keeping the sick in quarantine is the key.  If you don't you're spinning the wheel of Covid.  No one knows what this thing is capable of.  

[Magox]

Just now, daz28 said:

Isolating and keeping the sick in quarantine is the key.  If you don't you're spinning the wheel of Covid.  No one knows what this thing is capable of.  

 

Actually, we do know what it is capable of and there is a lot of data to help us understand that.

 

Also, the idea that we are going to keep the "sick in quarantine" being the key is unrealistic.  There are too many asymptomatics to do that and even if you could achieve that you would absolutely have to crush the economy for that to happen.  Maybe it's somewhat possible to do that in less dense populated areas, but the idea that we are going to achieve that is not realistic.  We don't need to be so afraid of this virus, for people under 65 it is as risky as the flu.  There is tons of data to support that.  

 

The solution is clear.  Protect the front line workers and most vulnerable with extreme vigor.  Continue developing therapeutics.  Practice common sense social distancing.  Have enough testing for everyone who is showing symptoms and conduct targeted surveillance testing throughout the country.   

 

Our immune systems are built like a fortress and 99.7% of us are able to defeat this pathogen.  That is the best defense and science and the data tells us that when you consider all the residual effects of the Shut downs and extreme social distancing that the best policy is to open up this economy and restore normalcy as much as you can while implementing the things that I suggested.

[daz28]

3 minutes ago, Magox said:

 

Actually, we do know what it is capable of and there is a lot of data to help us understand that.

 

Also, the idea that we are going to keep the "sick in quarantine" being the key is unrealistic.  There are too many asymptomatics to do that and even if you could achieve that you would absolutely have to crush the economy for that to happen.  Maybe it's somewhat possible to do that in less dense populated areas, but the idea that we are going to achieve that is not realistic.  We don't need to be so afraid of this virus, for people under 65 it is as risky as the flu.  There is tons of data to support that.  

 

The solution is clear.  Protect the front line workers and most vulnerable with extreme vigor.  Continue developing therapeutics.  Practice common sense social distancing.  Have enough testing for everyone who is showing symptoms and conduct targeted surveillance testing throughout the country.   

 

Our immune systems are built like a fortress and 99.7% of us are able to defeat this pathogen.  That is the best defense and science and the data tells us that when you consider all the residual effects of the Shut downs and extreme social distancing that the best policy is to open up this economy and restore normalcy as much as you can while implementing the things that I suggested.

Bro I love ya, and I love your positivity, but 85k Americans said no.  There's no way we learned anything about a novel virus in 6 months.  You might be right about some things, but ya might be dead wrong, too.