The Next Pandemic: SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19

[meazza]

34 minutes ago, KRC said:

 

Latest numbers from my in-laws' facility:

Patients: 124

Positive: 68

Negative: 56

No pending Tests

3 in the hospital

27 deaths

 

Thank you for asking.

 

We are all a family even though I hate all of you.

 

?

[KRC]

1 minute ago, meazza said:

 

We are all a family even though I hate all of you.

 

?

 

Isn't that what makes us a family?  

[B-Man]

 

 

Of course, the spin being bleated by Tibsy-types is that the Trump administration is trying to hide deaths...............

 

States have financial incentive to inflate the count with dubious cases...and she knows it.

 

 

 

 

 

[3rdnlng]

59 minutes ago, B-Man said:

 

 

Of course, the spin being bleated by Tibsy-types is that the Trump administration is trying to hide deaths...............

 

States have financial incentive to inflate the count with dubious cases...and she knows it.

 

 

 

 

 

The hospitals also have serious financial incentive to put patients on a ventilator. Pay is $13000 for a hospitalized Covid-19 patient. $39000 if they are put on a ventilator. What would Gloria Akilitus do?

 

 

[\GoBillsInDallas/]

https://nypost.com/2020/05/13/bizarre-lawn-sign-turns-teens-birthday-bash-into-18-and-over-*****/

 

[Chef Jim]

1 hour ago, KRC said:

 

Isn't that what makes us a family?  

That was going to be my reply. 

1 hour ago, B-Man said:

 

 

Of course, the spin being bleated by Tibsy-types is that the Trump administration is trying to hide deaths...............

 

States have financial incentive to inflate the count with dubious cases...and she knows it.

 

 

 

 

 

I was talking to a business associate who said hospitals get payments if a death is deemed caused by Covid and even more if they went in a ventilator?  Is this even remotely true?

 

Sorry I missed 3rdnlng’s post but question still stands. 

Edited May 13, 2020 by Chef Jim

[billsfan1959]

2 hours ago, LeGOATski said:

I don't see where CNN is saying they're experts. They're billing it as a town hall meeting. Greta obviously represents more of the "Fears" portion of this discussion...

 

The program is literally titled, “Coronavirus: Facts and Fears.” (1) If you are going to talk facts about a virus, inherent in that is the idea that you are going to put on "experts" or at least people very nowledgeable on the topic. (2) What possible legitimate contribution could Greta Thunberg make to a higher level discusion of the coronavirus? My guess is that you are right, her contribution is going to be about fear, and she will let us all know how, “Like the climate crisis, the coronavirus pandemic is a child-rights crisis." 

 

Because, clearly, this is all about saving the children....

 

 

[daz28]

3 hours ago, shoshin said:

 

On a ventilator, your chances are really bad. That's a Hail Mary moment. 

I'll use this reverse jinx moment to predict the Bills recover the onside kick in the Super Bowl to kick a field goal and win.  Something good has to come from this

 

 

 

On a side note, there are no experts on a novel virus, that's why it's called novel.  There are experts on viruses, infectious diseases, and pandemics though

Edited May 13, 2020 by daz28

[LeGOATski]

47 minutes ago, billsfan1959 said:

 

The program is literally titled, “Coronavirus: Facts and Fears.” (1) If you are going to talk facts about a virus, inherent in that is the idea that you are going to put on "experts" or at least people very nowledgeable on the topic. (2) What possible legitimate contribution could Greta Thunberg make to a higher level discusion of the coronavirus? My guess is that you are right, her contribution is going to be about fear, and she will let us all know how, “Like the climate crisis, the coronavirus pandemic is a child-rights crisis." 

 

Because, clearly, this is all about saving the children....

 

 

The children are our future! ?

 

But to point #1, reporters are supposed to report facts and they're certainly not experts... This is the type of thing they can invite anyone to, whoever the news station is, and news stations have been that way for a while. Why people get all bent out of shape over this stuff on social media is beyond me. 

[Magox]

Yet another Serological study, this one shows a much lower mortality rate...This one was conducted in Holland and shows .1% which is the same as the flu.

 

 

 

And I hit jackpot.

 

Check this out. There are 52 studies here all compiled in one link/spreadsheet.

 

 

When they compiled the 52 findings - the average IFR   mortality rate was only .28%

 

I predicted that it would be somewhere between .25%-.5%.    

 

@shoshin  I know you are interested in these things.

 

 

 

 

[billsfan1959]

2 minutes ago, LeGOATski said:

The children are our future! ?

 

But to point #1, reporters are supposed to report facts and they're certainly not experts... This is the type of thing they can invite anyone to, whoever the news station is, and news stations have been that way for a while. Why people get all bent out of shape over this stuff on social media is beyond me. 

 

No argument there, my friend. Kind of a strange choioce to sit on a panel like that, but, to each their own

[BuffaloHokie13]

@Magox using my rough assumptions of 80% asymptomatic and only those showing symptoms getting tested I landed at 0.4%. I'd love for that to be a conservative estimate on the matter! 

[Magox]

2 minutes ago, BuffaloHokie13 said:

@Magox using my rough assumptions of 80% asymptomatic and only those showing symptoms getting tested I landed at 0.4%. I'd love for that to be a conservative estimate on the matter! 

 

I think that number is going to be much higher than 80%.  

 

The pork plan in Missouri example.   370 people tested positive.  Every single one were asymptomatic.

 

Quote

373 employees and contract workers at Triumph Foods in Buchanan County, Missouri, have tested positive for coronavirus. All of them were asymptomatic, according to a press release from the Missouri Department of Health and Senior Services.

 

 

Or the four prisons in the US where 3300 inmates tested positive and 96% were asymptomatic.

 

Quote

As mass coronavirus testing expands in prisons, large numbers of inmates are showing no symptoms. In four state prison systems — Arkansas, North Carolina, Ohio and Virginia — 96% of 3,277 inmates who tested positive for the coronavirus were asymptomatic, according to interviews with officials and records reviewed by Reuters. That’s out of 4,693 tests that included results on symptoms.

 

 

Or The Tennessee prison where over 500 inmates and staff tested positive with 98% were asymptomatic.

 

Quote

 

"The good news is about 98 percent of them are completely asymptomatic," said Tennessee Health Commissioner Dr. Lisa Piercey. "They're well. They feel good."

She said the fact that they're asymptomatic at such a high rate is "a bit unusual."

 

 

 

Albeit these are anecdotal accounts, this is a sizable sample.  We are talking about over 4000 cases in 6 separate environments with an average asymptomatic rate of over 97%.

 

That to me is pretty strong evidence.

[BuffaloHokie13]

Just now, Magox said:

 

I think that number is going to be much higher than 80%.  

 

The pork plan in Missouri example.   370 people tested positive.  Every single one were asymptomatic.

Agreed. At the time I did it global experts were estimating 78% and I rounded for easier math.

[shoshin]

26 minutes ago, Magox said:

 

 

Check this out. There are 52 studies here all compiled in one link/spreadsheet.

 

 

@shoshin  I know you are interested in these things.

 

 

 

That's great. I'll note that compilation sheet, while an interesting exercise, is mixing sample size and sample groups like that doesn't make a total clusterF of the data, so I wouldn't trust that average as far as I could throw it. 

[Magox]

1 minute ago, shoshin said:

 

That's great. I'll note that compilation sheet, while an interesting exercise, is mixing sample size and sample groups like that doesn't make a total clusterF of the data, so I wouldn't trust that average as far as I could throw it. 

 

 

Data points.   It's an aggregation of data but it does help validate my thoughts.  If I really had to pin it down and narrow the range my gut tells me that the mortality rate is between .3%-.45%  - Specially when you see the prison and pork plant examples, huge sample size of over 4000 positive tests with over 97% asymptomatics. 

 

For me that is very telling.

[shoshin]

The Netherlands study has a lot of promising info in it. 

[Buffalo_Gal]

The US has cracked 10M tests (Trump is on right now).

 

[daz28]

51 minutes ago, Magox said:

 

 

Data points.   It's an aggregation of data but it does help validate my thoughts.  If I really had to pin it down and narrow the range my gut tells me that the mortality rate is between .3%-.45%  - Specially when you see the prison and pork plant examples, huge sample size of over 4000 positive tests with over 97% asymptomatics. 

 

For me that is very telling.

It seems from what you're saying the infection rate is likely ridiculously high, is that correct?  How would you compare it to most flu's from the data you've seen?  6 times?  People tend to focus on mortality rate, but a high infection rate makes that number far worse than it really is.  That's the thing I think most people don't understand.  say you're playing cards, and if you get the Jack of hearts you die.  No big deal, except no one told you had to draw 5 cards. 

[Deranged Rhino]

https://mobile.twitter.com/johncardillo/status/1260697824582340619