plenzmd1 Posted May 13, 2020 Posted May 13, 2020 51 minutes ago, Cinga said: It's on the CDC website everyone is using. Here is their chart, I swapped around the totals to the bottom, and highlight it to make it easier for you to understand: The only "uptick" in Covid deaths was for a 4 week period 3/28 to 4/18. However the average deaths over the last 2 months is only 97% of what was expected. So simply put, the argument can be made that even with Covid19 we are still below a "normal" death rate. Lord i keep clicking around that website..how do Data Scientists, actuaries etc do it...making my freaking head hurt, and am never quite sure if i am interpreting the numbers correctly!
billsfan1959 Posted May 13, 2020 Posted May 13, 2020 1 hour ago, Cinga said: It's on the CDC website everyone is using. Here is their chart, I swapped around the totals to the bottom, and highlight it to make it easier for you to understand: The only "uptick" in Covid deaths was for a 4 week period 3/28 to 4/18. However the average deaths over the last 2 months is only 97% of what was expected. So simply put, the argument can be made that even with Covid19 we are still below a "normal" death rate. Right. In that 4 week period, there were approx 262,000 deaths, which is definitely over the expected number. However, it is not like that hasn't happened before. If you go back to the 2017-2018 flu season, there were several months that topped that total. In January 2018, there were 287,000 deaths.... 1
Magox Posted May 13, 2020 Posted May 13, 2020 Another study on Mortality rates and other data. Quote France has been heavily affected by the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic and went into lockdown on the 17 March 2020. Using models applied to hospital and death data, we estimate the impact of the lockdown and current population immunity. We find 3.6% of infected individuals are hospitalized and 0.7% die, ranging from 0.001% in those <20 years of age (ya) to 10.1% in those >80ya. Across all ages, men are more likely to be hospitalized, enter intensive care, and die than women. The lockdown reduced the reproductive number from 2.90 to 0.67 (77% reduction). By 11 May 2020, when interventions are scheduled to be eased, we project 2.8 million (range: 1.8–4.7) people, or 4.4% (range: 2.8–7.2) of the population, will have been infected. Population immunity appears insufficient to avoid a second wave if all control measures are released at the end of the lockdown. This study shows a higher mortality rate of .7%. It also backs up the assertion that people under age 20 are virtually at statistically speaking at nearly 0 chance of dying. 3
B-Man Posted May 13, 2020 Posted May 13, 2020 3 minutes ago, Magox said: Another study on Mortality rates and other data. This study shows a higher mortality rate of .7%. It also backs up the assertion that people under age 20 are virtually at statistically speaking at nearly 0 chance of dying. We need to re-open. Instead we get this.......... Trust the experts! Guess who’s going to be a panelist on CNN’s ‘Coronavirus: Facts and Fears’ town hall (emphasis on ‘fears’) Seriously? Yep, seriously: 5 2
meazza Posted May 13, 2020 Posted May 13, 2020 (edited) 5 minutes ago, Reality Check said: Where are the interviews of the survivors? Do you watch tv? Rand Paul is a survivor. He was on tv yesterday. So is my mother's friend who spent 2 weeks on a ventilator. Edited May 13, 2020 by meazza
Reality Check Posted May 13, 2020 Posted May 13, 2020 1 minute ago, meazza said: Do you watch tv? Rand Paul is a survivor. He was on tv yesterday. So is my mother's friend who spent 2 weeks on a ventilator. I am very happy for your mother's friend. Unfortunately, you provided a very short list, and Hollywood people don't count. I am just surprised we are not hear about the many thousands of survivors and their complete experiences. It would be informative. 1
Tiberius Posted May 13, 2020 Posted May 13, 2020 7 minutes ago, meazza said: Do you watch tv? Rand Paul is a survivor. He was on tv yesterday. So is my mother's friend who spent 2 weeks on a ventilator. From what I have seen of those cases, that must have been very unpleasant, hope the recovery was full and speedy
daz28 Posted May 13, 2020 Posted May 13, 2020 15 minutes ago, Magox said: Another study on Mortality rates and other data. This study shows a higher mortality rate of .7%. It also backs up the assertion that people under age 20 are virtually at statistically speaking at nearly 0 chance of dying. They tried to make this look like a scientific case study, but it's not. It 99% estimated probability based on models. One interesting stat was they felt the lockdown lowered transmission by 77%, but again totally taken with a grain of salt. However, if that is the case, then it's certainly not an indicator for re-opening with current infection rates.
Magox Posted May 13, 2020 Posted May 13, 2020 1 minute ago, daz28 said: They tried to make this look like a scientific case study, but it's not. It 99% estimated probability based on models. One interesting stat was they felt the lockdown lowered transmission by 77%, but again totally taken with a grain of salt. However, if that is the case, then it's certainly not an indicator for re-opening with current infection rates. It's not conclusive, just that It's a data point. That's how I view all these studies, just an aggregation of data to better formulate my conclusions. 1
daz28 Posted May 13, 2020 Posted May 13, 2020 9 minutes ago, meazza said: Do you watch tv? Rand Paul is a survivor. He was on tv yesterday. So is my mother's friend who spent 2 weeks on a ventilator. Your mothers friend is basically a miracle. I believe the odds of coming off a vent are around 10%. Knowing that, it had to be a very scary situation for her. That's a stat I'd personally rather not even know. Just now, Magox said: It's not conclusive, just that It's a data point. That's how I view all these studies, just an aggregation of data to better formulate my conclusions. Absolutely! I appreciate you sharing 1
meazza Posted May 13, 2020 Posted May 13, 2020 24 minutes ago, daz28 said: Your mothers friend is basically a miracle. I believe the odds of coming off a vent are around 10%. Knowing that, it had to be a very scary situation for her. That's a stat I'd personally rather not even know. She's under 70 so I don't believe that the stats are that bad for people under 70.
shoshin Posted May 13, 2020 Posted May 13, 2020 Just now, meazza said: She's under 70 so I don't believe that the stats are that bad for people under 70. On a ventilator, your chances are really bad. That's a Hail Mary moment. 1
LeGOATski Posted May 13, 2020 Posted May 13, 2020 1 hour ago, B-Man said: We need to re-open. Instead we get this.......... Trust the experts! Guess who’s going to be a panelist on CNN’s ‘Coronavirus: Facts and Fears’ town hall (emphasis on ‘fears’) Seriously? Yep, seriously: I don't see where CNN is saying they're experts. They're billing it as a town hall meeting. Greta obviously represents more of the "Fears" portion of this discussion... 1 hour ago, Reality Check said: I am very happy for your mother's friend. Unfortunately, you provided a very short list, and Hollywood people don't count. I am just surprised we are not hear about the many thousands of survivors and their complete experiences. It would be informative. Not sure if you're just a troll because I don't spend too much time in this section, but all it takes is a Google search. I'm not gonna even bother posting a link. There's a story of a guy who took two month to recover. He may be an outlier.
KRC Posted May 13, 2020 Posted May 13, 2020 1 hour ago, meazza said: Yes, this is a good strategy. Speaking of nursing homes, any news @KRC? Latest numbers from my in-laws' facility: Patients: 124 Positive: 68 Negative: 56 No pending Tests 3 in the hospital 27 deaths Thank you for asking. 1 1
Reality Check Posted May 13, 2020 Posted May 13, 2020 3 minutes ago, LeGOATski said: I don't see where CNN is saying they're experts. They're billing it as a town hall meeting. Greta obviously represents more of the "Fears" portion of this discussion... Not sure if you're just a troll because I don't spend too much time in this section, but all it takes is a Google search. I'm not gonna even bother posting a link. There's a story of a guy who took two month to recover. He may be an outlier. Out of the few hundred thousand survivors, I see very few, if ever, profiled on the MSM services. Out of all the TV coverage, how many profiles of survivors have you seen. Vulnerable people could use stories about survival and triumph, and I see very little of that.
LeGOATski Posted May 13, 2020 Posted May 13, 2020 1 minute ago, Reality Check said: Out of the few hundred thousand survivors, I see very few, if ever, profiled on the MSM services. Out of all the TV coverage, how many profiles of survivors have you seen. Vulnerable people could use stories about survival and triumph, and I see very little of that. noted 1
B-Man Posted May 13, 2020 Posted May 13, 2020 NEITHER THE MODELS OR THE MODELERS HAVE COVERED THEMSELVES WITH GLORY, BUT THE EXPERT CLASS AS A WHOLE HAS BEEN A FAIL UNDER COVID-19: Can we trust Covid modelling? More evidence from Sweden. When people finally got to look under the hood of the famous Imperial College study, they found twisted and tangled code. And most of the model’s predictions bear little resemblance to what is actually happening. Some defend the models by saying that their predictions turned out to be wrong only because governments imposed harsher restrictions than the coders expected. If so, we have a perfect experiment. Sweden did not close borders, shut down schools, businesses, restaurants, gyms or shopping centres and did not issue stay at home orders. So it should be the one country where the models fit. Let’s see. . . . At this moment, when the models suggested that Sweden would have 30 to 40 patients fighting over every available ICU bed, there is spare capacity in beds, equipment and personnel of around 30 percent. . 5 2
B-Man Posted May 13, 2020 Posted May 13, 2020 RED TAPE AND LAWYERS: Covid-19: Regulatory Obstacles to U.S. Recovery. How the FDA prevented Covid victims from making vital health measurements on their smartphones, and how to stop legal vultures from feasting off the pandemic. WHY AN ADDED MONTH OF LOCKDOWN WILL DEVASTATE NEW YORK SMALL BUSINESSES. 1 2
Recommended Posts