fansince88 Posted April 11, 2020 Posted April 11, 2020 On 4/11/2020 at 10:38 PM, shoshin said: If we lost the battle, we’d all be at work. Distancing quells this outbreak. Tracing and testing can keep bigger waves from coming. Because this is more contagious, requires much more care, and is more deadly than the flu. Expand Once again. I was replying to the chart that shows otherwise.
SirAndrew Posted April 11, 2020 Posted April 11, 2020 On 4/11/2020 at 10:38 PM, shoshin said: If we lost the battle, we’d all be at work. Distancing quells this outbreak. Tracing and testing can keep bigger waves from coming. Because this is more contagious, requires much more care, and is more deadly than the flu. Expand Distancing helps, I completely agree. I just believe it’s too prevalent for contact tracing to work. When we trace someone’s contacts, do we quarantine them all ? Quarantining every contact is impossible at this point. Also, who did the person testing positive get the virus from? Lastly, we have no idea how many are asymptotic, so trace all my contacts, but the asymptomatic person who gave me the virus is still passing it around. Contact tracing works with a very rare virus, or if you immediately catch it entering the country. Contact tracing is almost worthless when a virus has entered every community. Keep in mind, this is not an expert opinion, but just my belief based on what I’m seeing. 1
shoshin Posted April 11, 2020 Posted April 11, 2020 (edited) On 4/11/2020 at 10:55 PM, SirAndrew said: Distancing helps, I completely agree. I just believe it’s too prevalent for contact tracing to work. When we trace someone’s contacts, do we quarantine them all ? Quarantining every contact is impossible at this point. Also, who did the person testing positive get the virus from? Lastly, we have no idea how many are asymptotic, so trace all my contacts, but the asymptomatic person who gave me the virus is still passing it around. Contact tracing works with a very rare virus, or if you immediately catch it entering the country. Contact tracing is almost worthless when a virus has entered every community. Keep in mind, this is not an expert opinion, but just my belief based on what I’m seeing. Expand it is definitely impossible now. It only gets possible when the cases are very low after the distancing. If we aren’t going to do that, we might as well just not have shut down. Other countries are making tracing work. You can’t say it doesn’t work. On 4/11/2020 at 10:51 PM, fansince88 said: Once again. I was replying to the chart that shows otherwise. Expand The chart shows that this is much more deadly given how we will have gone from 0 CASES and deaths (where the flu never is) to 30-60K deaths in 5 months, swamped some health care systems...and that’s with distancing in place. This isn’t the common flu. Comparing it to the flu is pointless. We can also compare it to heart failure deaths (it’s killing more people). Edited April 12, 2020 by shoshin 1
fansince88 Posted April 11, 2020 Posted April 11, 2020 On 4/11/2020 at 11:05 PM, shoshin said: it is definitely impossible now. It only gets possible when the cases are very low after the distancing. If we aren’t going to do that, we might as well just not have shut down. Other countries are making tracing work. You can’t say it doesn’t work. The chart shows that this is much more deadly given how we will have gone from 0 (where the flu never is) to 30-60K deaths in 5 months, swamped some health care systems...and that’s with distancing in place. This isn’t the common flu. Expand LOL. You guys and "this isnt the common flu". NOBODY IS SAYING THAT!!! 3 1
SirAndrew Posted April 11, 2020 Posted April 11, 2020 (edited) On 4/11/2020 at 11:05 PM, shoshin said: it is definitely impossible now. It only gets possible when the cases are very low after the distancing. If we aren’t going to do that, we might as well just not have shut down. Other countries are making tracing work. You can’t say it doesn’t work. The chart shows that this is much more deadly given how we will have gone from 0 (where the flu never is) to 30-60K deaths in 5 months, swamped some health care systems...and that’s with distancing in place. This isn’t the common flu. Expand What countries have made contact tracing work? In nations such as Italy, and the US it’s spun too out of control to do so. If you’re referring to nations such as South Korea and Singapore, you are correct. However, those nations are smaller in size without multiple waves of infections and patient zeros in hundreds of huge cities. They caught it early on when contact tracing was still viable. Contact tracing isn’t practical right now in the United States imo. Edited April 12, 2020 by SirAndrew 1
Koko78 Posted April 12, 2020 Posted April 12, 2020 On 4/11/2020 at 7:35 PM, Boatdrinks said: This Governor is nuts ! Expand Hopefully someone sues the state quickly. What she is pulling is completely unconstitutional. 5 1
leh-nerd skin-erd Posted April 12, 2020 Posted April 12, 2020 On 4/11/2020 at 8:41 PM, ALF said: At the Wal Mart here electronics , garden and the auto service are closed so those workers can stock shelves , keep disinfecting . Maybe they have some workers out sick or small kids at home due to schools closed. (I'm in Lockport,NY) My wife is the gardener and gets all her seeds online every year. Expand I’m wondering if the Michigan gov would ban that sort of delivery.
shoshin Posted April 12, 2020 Posted April 12, 2020 On 4/11/2020 at 11:57 PM, SirAndrew said: What countries have made contact tracing work? In nations such as Italy, and the US it’s spun too out of control to do so. If you’re referring to nations such as South Korea and Singapore, you are correct. However, those nations are smaller in size without multiple waves of infections and patient zeros in hundreds of huge cities. They caught it early on when contact tracing was still viable. Contact tracing isn’t practical right now in the United States imo. Expand Tracing only works once you reduce the initial case count. That’s for sure. 1
SirAndrew Posted April 12, 2020 Posted April 12, 2020 On 4/12/2020 at 12:06 AM, shoshin said: Tracing only works once you reduce the initial case count. That’s for sure. Expand We’re definitely on the same page. Hopefully cases are reduced to the point where contact tracing can be helpful. I just think some people are confused, seemingly believing contact tracing is useful right now. With the possible exception of remote rural areas, there’s no use in contact tracing at this time. I can’t believe how many health departments are still wasting their time doing so. 1
shoshin Posted April 12, 2020 Posted April 12, 2020 On 4/11/2020 at 11:47 PM, fansince88 said: LOL. You guys and "this isnt the common flu". NOBODY IS SAYING THAT!!! Expand So are people comparing it to the flu to show how much worse this is?
GG Posted April 12, 2020 Posted April 12, 2020 On 4/11/2020 at 5:41 PM, shoshin said: Those counties travel to NYC so I think it explains it pretty well. Expand It doesn’t explain the follow-on spread in the counties. If all that was needed was somebody to catch a virus at work in NYC, bring it home and then spread like wildfire in the suburbs, then this would be repeated all over the country. But it’s not. This is why the health officials are perplexed, because there’s no discernible pattern about the spread nor the mortality. Why did Italy, Spain and 10 counties surrounding NYC get hammered with high death rates, but no one else did? Why did it spread fast in one country, but barely budged in a neighbor? If the theory that first NYC infection came from Europe, why is that mutation so lethal, and why didn’t it spread across more of Europe?
Logic Posted April 12, 2020 Posted April 12, 2020 https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/11/us/politics/coronavirus-trump-response.html#click=https://t.co/afAykrWlvC
Koko78 Posted April 12, 2020 Posted April 12, 2020 (edited) On 4/12/2020 at 12:14 AM, B-Man said: <br /> Expand I like how the #######s in the full sized SUVs and minivans park in front of those with smaller cars. Edited April 12, 2020 by Koko78 5
Pine Barrens Mafia Posted April 12, 2020 Posted April 12, 2020 On 4/12/2020 at 12:47 AM, Logic said: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/11/us/politics/coronavirus-trump-response.html#click=https://t.co/afAykrWlvC Expand New York times = auto ignore. You should know better. 1 3
GG Posted April 12, 2020 Posted April 12, 2020 On 4/11/2020 at 4:27 PM, fansince88 said: Well, I will have you know that the air quality in NNY where we have had 1 death of 135 cases is much better then the air quality in NYC. I have lived in both environments. It is different. Expand Then there would be more uniform numbers across all boroughs, but there’s not. Manhattan is much more dense than the other 4, but its incidents are better. There are also wide variations within boroughs. On 4/12/2020 at 12:47 AM, Logic said: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/11/us/politics/coronavirus-trump-response.html#click=https://t.co/afAykrWlvC Expand Was NYT hitting DiBlasio when he was insisting that St Patrick’s still go on as late as March 11? 1
Buffalo_Gal Posted April 12, 2020 Posted April 12, 2020 On 4/11/2020 at 9:08 PM, Foxx said: it's just about ready... are you? Apple and Google debut Bluetooth-based contact-tracing platform to combat Covid-19...and end privacy? Apple and Google have unveiled an app – soon to be built into their mobile operating systems – that will trace users’ contacts to fight Covid-19. They insist it will be ‘opt-in’ and respect privacy, but we’ve heard that before. The tech giants announced they were working together on a Bluetooth-based contact-tracing app on Friday. The platform will debut as an API – a tool programmers can use to integrate the functionality into their own apps – next month, the companies said, and will eventually be built into the iOS and Android operating systems themselves. ... Expand Well, they tried arm tattoos before, I guess this time they figure using electronics people are dependent upon is more palatable, and the sheep will comply. ?♂️ I bet there is a run on faraday bags and cages. 1 3
Pine Barrens Mafia Posted April 12, 2020 Posted April 12, 2020 On 4/12/2020 at 12:57 AM, Buffalo_Gal said: Well, they tried arm tattoos before, I guess this time they figure using electronics people are dependent upon is more palatable, and the sheep will comply. ?♂️ I bet there is a run on faraday bags and cages. Expand Tell you an anecdotal story. There are some train tracks near our house. Usually maybe three trains go by a week. Lately it's been like 5 a DAY. I'd bet they're FEMA trains. Can't be sure but it's disconcerting. 1
shoshin Posted April 12, 2020 Posted April 12, 2020 (edited) On 4/12/2020 at 12:46 AM, GG said: It doesn’t explain the follow-on spread in the counties. If all that was needed was somebody to catch a virus at work in NYC, bring it home and then spread like wildfire in the suburbs, then this would be repeated all over the country. But it’s not. Expand My theory but based on facts. Think of it more like this. NYC is the hub. Multiple people traveling into the hub are getting it and spreading it to other multiple people in the metro area seeding those burbs. Some people distance and pressure their peers to distance and wear masks etc sooner and have better outcomes. No place is like NYC in America. It has 12 of the most dense areas in the top 20 in America. Including the top 8 with NYC itself in at #6 with its 8M people. And a population where public transport and general crowding is unparalleled. It has no American analogy even in Philly, Chicago, Boston, or LA and if those cities shut down before their case counts got as high as NY, then they would have less impact. This appears to be the case. Only Detroit and New Orleans seem to be on any trajectory like NYC. Quote This is why the health officials are perplexed, because there’s no discernible pattern about the spread nor the mortality. Why did Italy, Spain and 10 counties surrounding NYC get hammered with high death rates, but no one else did? Why did it spread fast in one country, but barely budged in a neighbor? Expand The health systems couldn’t keep up good standards of care I’m sure. There’s bed capacity and then there’s actual good care. What happened in Italy in particular was a total swamping of their system. Happened in NYC to a lesser extent. Quote If the theory that first NYC infection came from Europe, why is that mutation so lethal, and why didn’t it spread across more of Europe? Expand It did and is so far. Italy, Spain, France, and the UK are getting hammered. Germany is doing well but they have better care and are culturally different, as are the Northern European countries. Japan and India pop my reasoning though. Japan maybe is culture but that can’t explain 38M people living in Tokyo and the entire country having less than 10 dead a day. And India? They should be getting destroyed. Maybe they are and the data sucks frankly. But if not, that really makes no sense. Korea is another great outlier as we know. We need to look at all the outliers and figure out why. Smarter minds are at work on this. Edited April 12, 2020 by shoshin
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