Will we pay Poyer or won't we?

[GunnerBill]

7 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

So that leaves Tre and Milano for next year along with possibly Allen and Edmunds. Pretend Edmunds and Allen have great years next year... do we push them back another year and do 5th year option on them, too?

 

For Edmunds, yes. That is still the norm across the league. You pick up the 5th year option after year 3 and then you work out the long term deal after year 4 so that they never play a year "on the option." Quarterbacks are the exception - most teams make a decision after year 3 if they think they have their guy (which is why I think this offseason and the 2020 season are THE critical one for Josh Allen). If Josh takes another step in 2020 the Bills will pay him next spring. 

 

I think the Bills would consider making an exception to the pay after year 4 norm for non-Quarterbacks in the case of Tre White (and exceptions have become a little more common in cases where a team can see it has an elite level talent). The problem is where those exceptions exist the extensions without exception always keeps a salary controlled year in the first year of that contract. Because why, as a team, would you give up a chance of an elite guy at a cheap price for a year? So you keep cost control in year 1 and then jump up significantly in year 2 and beyond. The problem for the Bills in doing that this year is the CBA prevents it. It is the final year of the CBA which triggers some specific new rules. One of which is no player signed to a new contract in 2020 can have a salary jump of more than 30% in 2021. That is to prevent teams kicking money into a year that may never happen. 

 

So let me work through a couple of examples to illustrate what I am saying. The only 2016 non QB first rounder to be extended after year 3 was Zeke Elliott. 

Under his rookie deal in 2019 Zeke would have counted $8m against the cap. 

The Cowboys threw $7.5m in new money at him that he gets immediately as a bonus but that money is amortised against the cap and they actually brought his base salary (and therefore cap hit in 2019 down). His cap hit in 2019 was $6.5m (roughly $5.5m of amortised bonus and $1m salary). 

 

Therefore Zeke was cheaper in 2019 on his new deal that on his old deal. Even in situations where a team does give a player a little more money on the first year of a new deal than they would have earned under the rookie (Todd Gurley's extension after 3 year was an example he went from about $5m to about $7m) the first year remains the cheapest and most cost controlled year.

 

Therefore I really don't think it is smart roster management for the Bills to extend Tre this spring unless a new CBA is worked out and the restrictions on jumps from 2020 to 2021 are removed. It will make an extension of Dion tricky too but I don't know that they have much option there because they don't have the 5th year option available to them so you either sign him now or risk him becoming a FA after the season. Poyer is easier because that is a vet deal where you put most of the new money up front and don't commit to paying him too much more in the later years as he goes the wrong side of 30. 

 

To my mind the Bills plan should be:

2020 extensions: Dawkins, Feliciano and Poyer

2021 extensions: White and Allen (possibly Milano but I am not committed to signing Milano yet)

2022 extensions: Edmunds (you might also have to consider the non 1st rounders from the last draft here if any of Ford (as a G), Knox or Singletary have become indespensible). 

2 hours ago, BringBackOrton said:

I don’t think he scouted one pending FA player as DC. Probably had multiple on his radar.

 

Poyer and Hyde were McDermott guys brought in to fit HIS system. Whaley did no more than the dirty work with agents.

[Cripple Creek]

14 hours ago, HOUSE said:

How are we suppose to know?

Just ask the right person.

[Cripple Creek]

9 hours ago, below said:

 

Don't think that matters...unused cap space rolls over anyway.

I think that there is validity to what mic said.  Front loaded contracts this offseason will lessen the blow down the road.  As you compile a talented team the hardest thing to do is keep it together.  When Allen is up for his money the entire landscape changes.  Before him you have Tre and Dawkins.  Signing an older player to a top heavy deal lets you get the best out of him and then, if necessary, cut with a year or two remaining without a huge cap hit.

[GunnerBill]

37 minutes ago, Cripple Creek said:

I think that there is validity to what mic said.  Front loaded contracts this offseason will lessen the blow down the road.  As you compile a talented team the hardest thing to do is keep it together.  When Allen is up for his money the entire landscape changes.  Before him you have Tre and Dawkins.  Signing an older player to a top heavy deal lets you get the best out of him and then, if necessary, cut with a year or two remaining without a huge cap hit.

 

Yep. General rule of thumb. You front load vet contracts and you back load deals for guys coming off their rookie deal.  

[DCofNC]

Poyer is a force, but that inherently leads to some missed tackles when he gets a little reckless.  Really good, not great.  I would love to have him back, but its not the end of the world if hes not.  Looking at whats coming up:

 

White

Hyde

Wallace ( even though im not a big fan)

 

Replace Hughes, Shaq, and probably replace murphy, find a new 3 tech rotation player and hopefully get Star gone or add another 1 tech to rotate in ( maybe Harrison Phillips takes that spot),  there's a lot to factor in.  It will be interesting to see what the priorities are.

 

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

I went no only because I believe it’s ether Poyer or Hyde. 

[ILBillsfan]

On 1/18/2020 at 3:48 AM, JoPoy88 said:

 

silliness. He’s been close to the best at his job for 3 seasons. His tackling looked lazy at times this year for sure. But to say he failed and needs a “rebound” season is preposterous.

Did you watch his blown assignments vs the texans... have you seen him miss repeatedly tackles...have you seen him late on help on run support or help in the passing game.... oh yeah that was him on the blown coverage of the TE in that game...enough of this nonsense that he has been the best at his job....clearly last year he was not and no need to extend him thus you wait it out

[transplantbillsfan]

11 hours ago, BringBackOrton said:

I don’t think he scouted one pending FA player as DC. Probably had multiple on his radar.

 

Right, so he would have had to rely on others who do in-depth and comprehensive pro scouting in that lead up to Free Agency.

 

Whaley and his scouts would have therefore had a lot of influence in these decisions because they're the ones providing the assessments.

[transplantbillsfan]

9 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

For Edmunds, yes. That is still the norm across the league. You pick up the 5th year option after year 3 and then you work out the long term deal after year 4 so that they never play a year "on the option." Quarterbacks are the exception - most teams make a decision after year 3 if they think they have their guy (which is why I think this offseason and the 2020 season are THE critical one for Josh Allen). If Josh takes another step in 2020 the Bills will pay him next spring. 

 

I think the Bills would consider making an exception to the pay after year 4 norm for non-Quarterbacks in the case of Tre White (and exceptions have become a little more common in cases where a team can see it has an elite level talent). The problem is where those exceptions exist the extensions without exception always keeps a salary controlled year in the first year of that contract. Because why, as a team, would you give up a chance of an elite guy at a cheap price for a year? So you keep cost control in year 1 and then jump up significantly in year 2 and beyond. The problem for the Bills in doing that this year is the CBA prevents it. It is the final year of the CBA which triggers some specific new rules. One of which is no player signed to a new contract in 2020 can have a salary jump of more than 30% in 2021. That is to prevent teams kicking money into a year that may never happen. 

 

So let me work through a couple of examples to illustrate what I am saying. The only 2016 non QB first rounder to be extended after year 3 was Zeke Elliott. 

Under his rookie deal in 2019 Zeke would have counted $8m against the cap. 

The Cowboys threw $7.5m in new money at him that he gets immediately as a bonus but that money is amortised against the cap and they actually brought his base salary (and therefore cap hit in 2019 down). His cap hit in 2019 was $6.5m (roughly $5.5m of amortised bonus and $1m salary). 

 

Therefore Zeke was cheaper in 2019 on his new deal that on his old deal. Even in situations where a team does give a player a little more money on the first year of a new deal than they would have earned under the rookie (Todd Gurley's extension after 3 year was an example he went from about $5m to about $7m) the first year remains the cheapest and most cost controlled year.

 

Therefore I really don't think it is smart roster management for the Bills to extend Tre this spring unless a new CBA is worked out and the restrictions on jumps from 2020 to 2021 are removed. It will make an extension of Dion tricky too but I don't know that they have much option there because they don't have the 5th year option available to them so you either sign him now or risk him becoming a FA after the season. Poyer is easier because that is a vet deal where you put most of the new money up front and don't commit to paying him too much more in the later years as he goes the wrong side of 30. 

 

To my mind the Bills plan should be:

2020 extensions: Dawkins, Feliciano and Poyer

2021 extensions: White and Allen (possibly Milano but I am not committed to signing Milano yet)

2022 extensions: Edmunds (you might also have to consider the non 1st rounders from the last draft here if any of Ford (as a G), Knox or Singletary have become indespensible). 

 

Solid post, though I disagree with you on Milano. He's been at least as important when he's been on the field as Poyer. I actually think he's been one of our 2 or 3 best defenders in the last couple years, largely due to versatility.

 

I think he's part of that core of players McDermott and Beane were talking about in the end of year PC.

 

I forgot about the CBA ending. I hope it's resolved relatively swiftly and there's not much disruption to that offseason or, God forbid, Regular Season.

[GunnerBill]

Just now, transplantbillsfan said:

 

Solid post, though I disagree with you on Milano. He's been at least as important when he's been on the field as Poyer. I actually think he's been one of our 2 or 3 best defenders in the last couple years, largely due to versatility.

 

I think he's part of that core of players McDermott and Beane were talking about in the end of year PC.

 

I forgot about the CBA ending. I hope it's resolved relatively swiftly and there's not much disruption to that offseason or, God forbid, Regular Season.

 

I am a big Milano fan. Just think that is a position now you can find in the mid rounds of the draft. A lot of those undersized coverage linebackers are not fits in every scheme. They are perfect for McDermott's. I think those are easier to find than really good safeties with ball skills. I suspect the Bills try and keep both. Just if I was making the plan the post above is what I'd do. 

[BringBackOrton]

3 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

Right, so he would have had to rely on others who do in-depth and comprehensive pro scouting in that lead up to Free Agency.

 

Whaley and his scouts would have therefore had a lot of influence in these decisions because they're the ones providing the assessments.

I don’t follow. McD said he scouted Hyde as DC, and then when he due to become an FA, he scouted him more and then went after him. 

 

Whaley was involved as GM in name only I suppose. But seeing as the man and his entire scouting group was shown the door immediately after the offseason, I doubt McD gave their independent scouting opinions much credence.

 

There’s a reason a lot of our targets in the 2017 draft were also targets on Carolina’s board reportedly, and it wasn’t because Doug Whaley knew Carolina liked Dawkins, you know?

[Tcali]

On 1/18/2020 at 1:59 AM, Doc Brown said:

Beane rewarding Poyer will send a message to the team that if you consistently produce for us you'll be rewarded.  I see an extension similar to Hughes at the beginning of last year.  Maybe a three year extension to lock him up for four seasons until he's 33 with a low dead cap amount his final year.  Something like a three year extension for 34 million (24 million guaranteed).  That puts him at about 9 million a year.

not worth it.....but if the cap room is there and it doesnt mess up other signings...

5 hours ago, ILBillsfan said:

Did you watch his blown assignments vs the texans... have you seen him miss repeatedly tackles...have you seen him late on help on run support or help in the passing game.... oh yeah that was him on the blown coverage of the TE in that game...enough of this nonsense that he has been the best at his job....clearly last year he was not and no need to extend him thus you wait it out

yep not a great yr....not even good...C+..B- if feeling very generous

[transplantbillsfan]

https://theathletic.com/1650815/2020/03/03/bills-thoughts-from-the-combine-wide-receiver-chase-and-shaq-lawson/

Bills thoughts from the combine: Wide receiver chase and Shaq Lawson

By Matthew Fairburn Mar 3, 2020

 

5. The Bills have some extensions of their own players to get done in the coming months, but Beane made a point to say those have typically happened after the draft. The next few months are busy with free agency, pro days and then the draft, so it’s tough to find the time to dedicate to contract talks. Agents are also playing a waiting game at the moment with the CBA talks ongoing.

 

At the moment, it sounds like extensions for Dion Dawkins, Matt Milano and Tre’Davious White are a matter of when and not if. The Bills view all three as part of their long-term core and want to reward their own. The one who will be interesting to watch over the next few months is Jordan Poyer. He’s entering the final season of his deal but will be 29 years old in April. He and Micah Hyde have been the lifeblood of one of the league’s best secondaries and both have dramatically outperformed their current contracts. Pay attention to the players the Bills add in free agency and the draft because it might provide some clues about how they view Poyer long-term. He’s going to get a healthy raise one way or another. The Bills must decide if they want to be the ones to give it to him.

[Sherlock Holmes]

We could trade for Harrison Smith then we wouldn't have to worry our little heads

[Turk71]

I dont think it is a high priority at the moment. He is under contract for this year already and will be 30 before his next contract. See how he performs this year and go from there.

[Turk71]

On 1/18/2020 at 12:23 AM, GunnerBill said:

I am all but certain the Bills are going to pay Poyer. If they don't he is going to hold out. 

What good would that do him? He is still under contract and not getting younger. If anything I would think he would play out his final year trying to prove them wrong and then leave in free agency.

[GunnerBill]

2 minutes ago, Turk71 said:

What good would that do him? He is still under contract and not getting younger. If anything I would think he would play out his final year trying to prove them wrong and then leave in free agency.

 

Either the Bills would pay him or trade him to someone who will. 

[Augie]

5 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Either the Bills would pay him or trade him to someone who will. 

 

I hope it’s the Bills. I like the connection they seem to have back there. (One certain misstep still hurts, but that’s life sometimes.) 

[JMF2006]

This creates a tricky situation as Micah still has 2 years at 6.75m per.....do you give him a raise too?

 

Poyer deserves a raise from his 4m a year deal ….but how much?

 

With pick 22 and a couple of very good safeties projected in rnd 1( McKinney and Delpit) things get complicated quickly.

 

Sure the Bills need a WR but this draft is deep and a trade up in rnd 2 is possible.

 

So glad I am not GM as these are very tough decisions.

[BarleyNY]

1 hour ago, JMF2006 said:

This creates a tricky situation as Micah still has 2 years at 6.75m per.....do you give him a raise too?

 

Poyer deserves a raise from his 4m a year deal ….but how much?

 

With pick 22 and a couple of very good safeties projected in rnd 1( McKinney and Delpit) things get complicated quickly.

 

Sure the Bills need a WR but this draft is deep and a trade up in rnd 2 is possible.

 

So glad I am not GM as these are very tough decisions.

My first thought was along those lines.  If you pay Poyer, then you have to redo Hyde’s deal too.  Both have to wait for the new CBA to be approved, but you can have the lesser of the two safeties making more than the better one.  Currently neither is making what he is worth though.

 

 

11 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Either the Bills would pay him or trade him to someone who will. 

Yup.  Poyer’s power play would be to hold out for most of the season and return for at least 6 games to get his accrued season and make it to FA.  I don’t know that he’d do that, but I also wouldn’t expect him back here in 2021 if we don’t extend him before the season is out (unless the CBA renewal prevents it).  I’d wager that it gets done along with a new Hyde deal. 

Edited March 10, 2020 by BarleyNY