Off-season: Expected and Surprise Cuts

[RyanC883]

7 hours ago, ngbills said:

Believe me I expect to be disappointed. If they sign just one - Hooper. Then I am excited. I know folks like Knox. He is fun to watch but quite the level of a guy like Hooper. 

 

Hooper and Knox would create havoc for opposing defenses!!

[Hapless Bills Fan]

10 hours ago, ngbills said:

Expected:

Trent Murphy ($8.95 cap hit / $1.75M dead cap)

Spencer Long ($4.1M cap hit / $700k dead cap)

 

Surprise:

Star Lotulelei ($10.1M cap hit / $7.8M dead cap)

Tyler Kroft ($6.4M cap hit / $1.6M dead cap)

Lee Smith ($3.25M cap hit / $1M dead cap)

Steven Hauschka ($3M cap hit / $1.25M dead cap)

Pat Dimcarco ($2.35M cap hit / $500k dead cap)

Andre Roberts ($2M cap hit / $500k dead cap)

TJ Yeldon ($1.9M cap hit / $250K dead cap)

 

What exactly is the Bills motivation to make all these cuts?

 

There's another thread on the topic.  McDermott flat out said he thought they let too many leaders out of the building in Carolina and he wants to keep as much of the team together as they can.  He means what he says.  We may lose both Jordan Phillips and Shaq.  Murphy and Lotulelei aren't going anywhere.  Neither are Smith, DiMarco, Roberts, or Haushka.  If they bring in competition in camp and the coaches love them, maybe there might be 1 or 2 surprises there.

 

Unless they bring in a lot of OL talent, Long is staying as our principle backup.  He's versatile - has played center and both guard positions.  Again, he'll stay and compete thru camp.

 

Yeldon I've wondered why he's on the roster.  We evidently don't trust him as an RB;  and aside from 1 run, he's averaging around 3 ypa so perhaps that's why.  His ST snaps declined through the season so we evidently don't like him there either.  He may be cut, though we'll likely wait through training camp.

 

Kroft may be cut.  I think we'll know early in FA.  He's owed a $750k bonus and has $2M salary guarantee on the 3rd day of the league year.  I would like to see us upgrade at TE with one of the top FA TE, but I'm afraid Beane won't do it.

10 hours ago, ngbills said:

Well $20M is going to Yannick Ngakoue. Trent Murphy pays for a big chunk of that. 

Then $10M+ to Conklin. Spencer Long savings will help with that. 

Kroft helps pay for Hooper and his $10M.

Then we are in good shape headed to the draft and a few other lower priced free agents. Get AJ Green on a short deal if possible, Robbie Anderson, and draft a WR. 

 

You are so dreaming.  I would love to see us bring in Conklin and Hooper. 

 

Beane flat out said something to the effect of "I don't think we'll be players at the deep end as we were last year" (meaning Morse).  I think he means what he says and says what he means.  I would like to see Daboll and McDermott back him into a corner and say 'we need an RT and a TE who can really play' but I don't think they will.

 

 

[Chicharito]

If shaq goes Murphy stays. DE is a big hole for us with no depth at the position.

[billsfan_34]

15 hours ago, LABILLBACKER said:

There's a couple mocks including cbs having us take Taylor in the 1st. If Shenault is gone this would be a good pick. The NFL is cyclical and with teams like Tenn & SF, its moving back to a run heavy trend. Taylor and Singletary would be an awesome combo.

I agree and have seem the flow going back to running the ball. Things will hinge on where Bean and company have Taylor on their boards. Having a back like him would be huge for our offense. Keep in mind too Henry is an FA and the Titans do not have a lot of cap.

[SoTier]

16 hours ago, Rc2catch said:

I think the surprise is NOBODY gets cut. 
It’s possible everyone currently under contract makes it to preseason. 

You don’t cut players until someone steps up and takes their job unless you need the money. We do not. 
Might as well load up in the draft, sign who we are going to sign between our guys and free agents. Let the best battle it out. 
Once you have a good idea of your top 53 you can dangle guys for draft picks, trade them for possible depth players, or just outright cut them. What’s the rush to get them off the team? 

 

Exactly right.   The Bills are in a different place than they've been in at least 25 years:  they have a good team with a stable coaching staff, a playoff team filled with promising young players that fit the coaching staff's requirements, and they have plenty of cap space.   They are likely to lose at least some of the current roster to retirement/FA so they are going to have to fill those holes as well as upgrade several other positions.   

 

Cap space doesn't win football games, players do -- and teams need to have guys on the roster who are rotational and role players and STers.   Creating holes just to save current $$$ or cap space is what the Bills did for nearly twenty years.  It's time for the Bills to start emulating other successful teams that keep as much of their current roster as they can until they actually have better options on the roster.

 

[Rochesterfan]

17 hours ago, ngbills said:

Expected:

Trent Murphy ($8.95 cap hit / $1.75M dead cap)

Spencer Long ($4.1M cap hit / $700k dead cap)

 

Surprise:

Star Lotulelei ($10.1M cap hit / $7.8M dead cap)

Tyler Kroft ($6.4M cap hit / $1.6M dead cap)

Lee Smith ($3.25M cap hit / $1M dead cap)

Steven Hauschka ($3M cap hit / $1.25M dead cap)

Pat Dimcarco ($2.35M cap hit / $500k dead cap)

Andre Roberts ($2M cap hit / $500k dead cap)

TJ Yeldon ($1.9M cap hit / $250K dead cap)

 

Why?  No, No, and nope on all of this.  Not expected or surprise - they will keep the roster mostly intact.

 

They will fill the few holes with lower to mid level players and then draft well.

 

They will then let them battle it out in camp and cut or trade guys at that time to prepare for the next year.

 

I expect few or no cuts of any kind because they do not need to open holes at this time - they have 30 roster slots and 90 million - cuts just are not going to happen in any large degree until camp.

 

You are setting yourself up to be greatly disappointed with this list and your thoughts of big time FAs. 

Edited January 18, 2020 by Rochesterfan

[billsfan_34]

15 hours ago, OldTimeAFLGuy said:

 

 

 

where is he projected bud?........

Draft wire has him going to the Fins in the two six spot of the first round.

[Rochesterfan]

10 hours ago, iccrewman112 said:

but the owner doesn’t actually pay dead money. Owners may want to keep the cash in their pocket.

Wait - what?  Dead money is typically money that was given as a signing bonus upfront.  Owners have already paid the dead money usually - it is the remaining contract they save on - not the dead money.  The dead money would be money the owner already paid to a guy no longer on the team.

[SoTier]

11 hours ago, Gambit said:

While Haushka did redeem himself some what, people seem to forget we don't tend to kick past 50 cause he can't seem to make those anymore. He needs to be replaced sooner rather than later.

 

Maybe you didn't notice how many teams had difficulty finding kickers who could reliably make 35 yard FGs this season?

 

Yes, Hauschka needs to be replaced -- but not until the Bills actually have a better kicker on the roster.

[Niagara Dude]

18 hours ago, ngbills said:

Expected:

Trent Murphy ($8.95 cap hit / $1.75M dead cap)

Spencer Long ($4.1M cap hit / $700k dead cap)

 

Surprise:

Star Lotulelei ($10.1M cap hit / $7.8M dead cap)

Tyler Kroft ($6.4M cap hit / $1.6M dead cap)

Lee Smith ($3.25M cap hit / $1M dead cap)

Steven Hauschka ($3M cap hit / $1.25M dead cap)

Pat Dimcarco ($2.35M cap hit / $500k dead cap)

Andre Roberts ($2M cap hit / $500k dead cap)

TJ Yeldon ($1.9M cap hit / $250K dead cap)

Excellent post,  and other than Star & Hauschka everyone on your surprise list will not be a surprise.  

11 hours ago, iccrewman112 said:

but the owner doesn’t actually pay dead money. Owners may want to keep the cash in their pocket.

Right dead money is just signing bonus that was already paid,  the salary for that year is paid.  Dead money is only a problem when you have cap issues,  if they believe they can sign an upgrade they will.

[machine gun kelly]

18 hours ago, ngbills said:

Expected:

Trent Murphy ($8.95 cap hit / $1.75M dead cap)

Spencer Long ($4.1M cap hit / $700k dead cap)

 

Surprise:

Star Lotulelei ($10.1M cap hit / $7.8M dead cap)

Tyler Kroft ($6.4M cap hit / $1.6M dead cap)

Lee Smith ($3.25M cap hit / $1M dead cap)

Steven Hauschka ($3M cap hit / $1.25M dead cap)

Pat Dimcarco ($2.35M cap hit / $500k dead cap)

Andre Roberts ($2M cap hit / $500k dead cap)

TJ Yeldon ($1.9M cap hit / $250K dead cap)

I understand several, but think we’ll keep Long for depth as O Lineman get hurt.  I also don’t see them cutting the best ST return person in the league in Roberts, and depending upon whether they draft a RB which I suspect, Yeldon still provides a nice change up option.  Gore is gone for sure which you didn’t have on here,

13 hours ago, below said:

Signing those guys takes a huge chunk of guaranteed money.

 

Cutting any of those guys only covers a SMALL fraction of that. Insignificant in comparison.

 

The consequences of giving any of those contracts will be the near-certain future loss of guys like Dawkins, Milano, etc. because we can't commit to that many long term contracts.

 

 

There is no way we are picking up AJ Green as he only played 45% of the games the last two to three years, and is 32.  That is not Beane’s mo.

[Steve O]

18 hours ago, BuffaloRebound said:

Hard to find a kicker and Hausckha redeemed himself at end of year.  Can’t see them cutting him.  

Agreed. Not sure if it was due to the Bills putting in a claim for McLaughlin, or if he finally recovered from Anderson's cheap shot late last season (maybe a little of both,) but he was back to being "Hausch Money" the last few games.

[D. L. Hot-Flamethrower]

9 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

What exactly is the Bills motivation to make all these cuts?

 

There's another thread on the topic.  McDermott flat out said he thought they let too many leaders out of the building in Carolina and he wants to keep as much of the team together as they can.  He means what he says.  We may lose both Jordan Phillips and Shaq.  Murphy and Lotulelei aren't going anywhere.  Neither are Smith, DiMarco, Roberts, or Haushka.  If they bring in competition in camp and the coaches love them, maybe there might be 1 or 2 surprises there.

 

Unless they bring in a lot of OL talent, Long is staying as our principle backup.  He's versatile - has played center and both guard positions.  Again, he'll stay and compete thru camp.

 

Yeldon I've wondered why he's on the roster.  We evidently don't trust him as an RB;  and aside from 1 run, he's averaging around 3 ypa so perhaps that's why.  His ST snaps declined through the season so we evidently don't like him there either.  He may be cut, though we'll likely wait through training camp.

 

Kroft may be cut.  I think we'll know early in FA.  He's owed a $750k bonus and has $2M salary guarantee on the 3rd day of the league year.  I would like to see us upgrade at TE with one of the top FA TE, but I'm afraid Beane won't do it.

 

You are so dreaming.  I would love to see us bring in Conklin and Hooper. 

 

Beane flat out said something to the effect of "I don't think we'll be players at the deep end as we were last year" (meaning Morse).  I think he means what he says and says what he means.  I would like to see Daboll and McDermott back him into a corner and say 'we need an RT and a TE who can really play' but I don't think they will.

 

 

Good points. But, not trying to be argumentative, why do you assume that not being players in the deep end means not going for a big ticket guy? My take was we did NOT go after the big guys last year (Morse included) and signed a bunch of mid to lower level guys who could help with depth and holes.

[GunnerBill]

They should not cut Long. Good Oline depth is almost non-existent around the league. You don't get rid of it to save $3m unless you need to in my opinion. 

 

In the same vein I wouldn't cut Ty Nsekhe but he might be a candidate for the surprise cut list too. 

[Gambit]

3 hours ago, SoTier said:

 

Maybe you didn't notice how many teams had difficulty finding kickers who could reliably make 35 yard FGs this season?

 

Yes, Hauschka needs to be replaced -- but not until the Bills actually have a better kicker on the roster.

I completely agree. I'd like to get a rookie udfa this year and let them compete for it. 

[Florida Bills Fanatic]

20 hours ago, ngbills said:

Well $20M is going to Yannick Ngakoue. Trent Murphy pays for a big chunk of that. 

 

Then $10M+ to Conklin. Spencer Long savings will help with that. 

 

Kroft helps pay for Hooper and his $10M.

 

Then we are in good shape headed to the draft and a few other lower priced free agents. Get AJ Green on a short deal if possible, Robbie Anderson, and draft a WR. 

Okay, put down the bong and step away from the coffee table....lol

[HappyDays]

Star is a culture fit and a leader, and he fills his role competently. We're overpaying him a couple million, big deal. We didn't lose any games this year because he was on the field. Why would we cut him to save $2.3 million?

 

Roberts was our most valuable special teams player. McDermott preaches the importance of ball security and he hasn't muffed a single punt or kickoff. Why would you risk losing that value for $2 million?

 

We aren't going to find a replacement for Hauschka. He was fine after a short string of bad games. We should have won our first playoff game in over 20 years because of him. What are you even thinking here?

 

Long is good offensive line depth. What does cutting him accomplish?

 

The Bills have $89 million in available cap space!! It's the 4th most cap space in the league this year - only the Dolphins, Bucs, and Colts have more. We're in a really good spot. Why are we cutting decent players to save more money?

[Hapless Bills Fan]

1 hour ago, D. L. Hot-Flamethrower said:

Good points. But, not trying to be argumentative, why do you assume that not being players in the deep end means not going for a big ticket guy? My take was we did NOT go after the big guys last year (Morse included) and signed a bunch of mid to lower level guys who could help with depth and holes.

 

Not argumentative at all, good questions.

 

Morse is the 2nd highest paid center in the league by AAV and guaranteed $$.  That's the Deep End by most people's measure.  If that's not a Big Guy unsure what your definition of big guy is?

 

As for what I assume, that's my interpretation of what Beane said.  Joe B. had a similar interpretation in his Athletic article. 
“We probably won’t be spending at the deep end of the pool that we did last year, where we were,” Beane said. “Hopefully, Josh (Allen) continues to ascend and hopefully he makes us pay him some of those hefty salaries at that time. Which we want to be able to be in cap strength to handle that, as well, and not all of a sudden sign a quarterback and then have to release three other players just to stay under the cap. So, it’s not just that $89 million that you’re referring to this year, it’s making sure we’re cap strong in ’21, ’22 and beyond.”
And further:

“You can get guys that are minimum contract guys. You can get guys that are low-tier type, kind of middle of the road,” Beane said. “Those sometimes are as important or more important than those big-ticket items.”

Believe me I'd like to be wrong.  I want us to go for a FA TE and a FA OL, best we can get.   While we're at it, FA pass rusher be nice.

Beane tried shopping at Kmart for OL in 2018, and finally saw some success when he moved up to Kohls (with Morse as one excursion to Neiman Marcus), but still not quite enough.  Spain was available for us to sign because Tennessee upgraded to Saffold.  We're speculating about FA and the draft after we couldn't run between tackles all season, while Tennessee is playing for the Conference Championship on the strength of their run game, starting with improved run blocking.  You don't need to be a Football Genius to see how important a pass-catching TE with reliable hands is to the SF 49ers, to KC, and to Baltimore.  Beane tried Kohls there with Kroft.  Need to upgrade, Beane.  Not sure Knox is It; are we betting the season that he takes a step, or that Kroft gets and stays fully healthy and breaks his pattern of "Loyal Knight" to become a difference-maker all season?

 

Beane talks about saving cap to pay Allen those big bucks if he proves out, but if we don't give him targets, better protection, and a consistent run game we'll be left saying "perhaps...." and having to make a tough choice after next season.

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

5 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

 

 

Beane talks about saving cap to pay Allen those big bucks if he proves out, but if we don't give him targets, better protection, and a consistent run game we'll be left saying "perhaps...." and having to make a tough choice after next season.

 

...he impresses me as a long haul thinker and never one to be cap crazy win now at all costs...cap will continue to escalate each year unless the TV cash cow bursts...hell I'd bet he has a matrix set up so he roughly knows when the "Josh window" arises with cap projections as well as QB going rates....

[Hapless Bills Fan]

13 minutes ago, OldTimeAFLGuy said:

...he impresses me as a long haul thinker and never one to be cap crazy win now at all costs...cap will continue to escalate each year unless the TV cash cow bursts...hell I'd bet he has a matrix set up so he roughly knows when the "Josh window" arises with cap projections as well as QB going rates....

 

I get it.  He's not going to line up to set the new market for a DT with Mario Williams or Marcel Dareus.

 

My point is there's such a thing as being too cost-conscious.  We saw that in 2018, and Beane now admits he didn't do enough to bring in OL talent and playmakers and Josh's development suffered for it - that he was cap-limited but could have done more.

 

In 2019 he did more and the offense has took a step from #30 to #23, but IMO if he wants another step, he has still not done enough and it's not just at WR.  Elsewhere I pointed out that we are #24 in OL spending and that the two just might be related.  The playoff team that is similar to us in OL spending (49ers) has 2 1st rounders and a 2nd rounder playing on the line.  While McDermott and Beane are looking for mistakes made in Carolina where they can chart a different course, I hope he considers under-investment in OL and offensive skill players (TE, RB) as a possibility.