Bills final PFF ratings - Offence

[The Frankish Reich]

OK, PFF haters. You have a point -- they don't exactly do a good job of explaining their grading system. But it ain't that hard to find. From the wiki page on PFF:

 

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PFF grades every NFL player on every play on a scale of -2 to +2 using half point increments.^[6] The grades are based on context and performance. A four-yard run that gains a first down after two broken tackles will receive a better grade than a four-yard run on 3rd & 5, where the ball carrier does nothing more than expected. A quarterback who makes a good pass that a receiver tips into the arms of a defender will not negatively affect the quarterback's grade on that play, despite the overall negative result for the team.

Furthermore, grades are separated by play type. Beyond just an overall grade, an offensive lineman receives one grade for pass-blocking and one for run-blocking.^[7] The average grade is meant to be zero, and raw grades are normalized.

 

 

So, after they do that, here's what the total scores add up to (from PFF's own twitter):

 

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The Player Grading Scale:

100-90 Elite

89-85 Pro Bowler

84-70 Starter

69-60 Backup

59-0 Replaceable

 

 

So PFF is what it is. It's not scientific, or "analytic" in any meaningful sense. It may not be better than a pro scout's impressionistic grades. But I find it useful in the way advanced defensive metrics are in baseball: I watch the games, I have a seat of the pants idea of how good a certain player is, I check PFF and it either confirms that or causes me to take a closer look if it doesn't. What it tells us here is that although a lot of Bills fans were thrilled (me among them) with how we upgraded our receiving corps, it's still just ordinary overall (worse than ordinary if we consider TEs). And while we were positively ecstatic about the improvement in the O line, it really just went from historically awful in 2018 to ordinary crappy in 2019; there's ton of room for improvement there.

EDIT: Thanks to the OP for compiling this. I don't subscribe. One comment: Nsekhe was not "great" by PFF's rating. He was a lower-end starting quality RT. But Ford was so, so bad that Nsekhe was a huge upgrade whenever he was on the field.

Edited January 17, 2020 by The Frankish Reich

[Hapless Bills Fan]

55 minutes ago, LSHMEAB said:

As far as PFF, I said "some" merit because I do know NFL teams use their info. I've read quite a bit about their methodology that I can't recall at the moment because I'm losing EVERY bet I made, but I believe the consensus is that there are flaws, but the info is still somewhat useful. 

 

I thought we were specifically discussing the numerical rankings given above: "Knock these rankings all you want, but they certainly have some merit."

The NFL doesn't use rankings like this AFAIK - in fact Eric Wood called them out in one interview, pointing out that he'd been ranked as the 2nd to last rushing center or something the same year he was given an extension "I can guarantee, I wasn't extended because that's how our coaches graded me".  

 

PFF does have some good stuff, but it's the stuff that's built more directly on data like the passing heat map posted elsewhere.

 

I'm not aware of a consensus saying PFF's numerical scoring and other "special sauce" metrics are so useful, of course there are many things of which I'm unaware.

 

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I think a great deal of the pass pro issues came from one position and that's RT. There were times when they seemed out of sync with the play call, but I'd say the pass pro was LESS of an issue than the overall run blocking. In other words, I think it's easier to fix the issues with pass pro considering there was a serious liability at just one position.

 

I disagree RT was the only area with a serious liability in pass pro

[billsherd]

No winner Daboll passed more in key moments when you line blocks well in pass than run, it make sense.

[LSHMEAB]

4 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

 

 

I disagree RT was the only area with a serious liability in pass pro

I would say RT is the only POSITION of concern personnel wise WRT pass pro. Nsekhe was certainly better than Ford when healthy. I saw your take on Ty earlier and perhaps that's correct. Maybe he can man down RT in 2020. We'll see. As far as overall issues with pass pro, I don't see any of the other 4 starters in 2019 as liabilities. There were definitely times when the communication/assignments were off(not a GREAT look for Morse or Daboll), but that wasn't necessarily a personnel issue. That's mainly on Daboll and Johnson.

 

As far as PFF, there are a ton of diverging opinions and you very well may be right. I WILL say that Spain's run blocking "number" was exactly where I'd expect it to be, so there's that. 

 

The Bills need a "mauler"(becoming redundant with that word) and LG seems like the perfect spot to upgrade all things considered as it applies to the Bills situation.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

10 minutes ago, LSHMEAB said:

I would say RT is the only POSITION of concern personnel wise WRT pass pro.

 

I don't notice this.  But others who I respect have pointed out that Spain is just a fraction slow, and that Dawkins and/or Morse are often struggling with their own guy because they're taking a fraction of a second to help Spain initially.

 

Several times, Feliciano and Ford have tripped on each other.   This occurred on a key play vs Cleveland, vs. the Ravens, and vs. the Texans. I can't tell who is to blame there.

 

Morse gets shoved back into Allen pretty regularly.  It's possible that he'd do a bit better with different guard or guards flanking him - that can make a huge difference to a center.  It was amazing how much better Wood looked playing between Incognito and Miller than between Urbik and Pears.

 

So yeah, I can't agree about RT being the only position of concern with regard to pass pro.

 

But I'd be happy with an upgrade to LG and RT.

 

 

[Buffalo_Stampede]

A lot of average to below average football players, which is exactly what my eyes saw. Ford being the worst player on offense. Pretty accurate.

Edited January 17, 2020 by Buffalo_Stampede

[LSHMEAB]

1 minute ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

 

Morse gets shoved back into Allen pretty regularly.  It's possible that he'd do a bit better with different flankers or a different flanker- that can make a huge difference to a center.

 

 

 

 

Ugh. See. This is where it gets tricky. Morse got the cash, so he's gonna be here. He's going to be the center and "hopefully" with at least one better flanker, his play will improve. I'm somewhat remiss to really critique Morse because it's a forgone conclusion he's gonna be the center. So knowing Beane will operate under that premise, I'm interested to see what they'll do at the G and RT position.

[Turk71]

2 hours ago, MJS said:

Well, those numbers aren't really numbers, though. They are subjective guesses. It's the same as arbitrarily assigning a letter grade or gold stars.

 

They would like to view their method as data collection, but it is nothing of the sort.

But for some reason all 32 NFL teams and over 60 Div 1 BCS teams pay for their services, weird.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

10 minutes ago, LSHMEAB said:

Ugh. See. This is where it gets tricky. Morse got the cash, so he's gonna be here. He's going to be the center and "hopefully" with at least one better flanker, his play will improve. I'm somewhat remiss to really critique Morse because it's a forgone conclusion he's gonna be the center. So knowing Beane will operate under that premise, I'm interested to see what they'll do at the G and RT position.

 

I came back and edited to better wording and to make the point - It was amazing how much better Wood looked playing between Incognito and Miller than between Urbik and Pears.   So improving guard play can make a big difference to a center.  If Feliciano was playing all year with a torn rotator cuff and if it's true Morse and Dawkins were helping Spain initially to the detriment of their own play, that could be a reason.

 

Morse is 100% here this year.  But drafting a strong OLman who can play both Center and Guard would seem a good move along with an upgrade at RT.  Eric Wood started at RG his first 2 years. 

 

Morse becomes a $5.5M dead cap hit next season

[Turk71]

I still think Ford should have been playing guard. He was highly recruited out of high school as a guard, played guard in college until injuries required he switch to tackle. I read several draft analysts say that his footwork was not yet good enough to block on the outside and from what I've seen they were right.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

9 minutes ago, Turk71 said:

But for some reason all 32 NFL teams and over 60 Div 1 BCS teams pay for their services, weird.

 

Not really.  The services provided to the NFL teams and BCS teams aren't necessarily the same "special sauce numbers" that are boiled up for the public.

[LSHMEAB]

Just now, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I came back and edited to better wording and to make the point - It was amazing how much better Wood looked playing between Incognito and Miller than between Urbik and Pears.   So improving guard play can make a big difference to a center.  If Feliciano was playing all year with a torn rotator cuff and if it's true Morse and Dawkins were helping Spain initially to the detriment of their own play, that could be a reason.

Center is such an odd position. There are so few guys that have the cerebral part down in addition to EXCELLENCE in the physical aspect of the game. An "effective" center really only needs to be a "solid" blocker as long as they're getting everything else right. Wood INDEED looked a whole lot better when he had help at guard. Urbik and Pears. Eeek. So yeah, I think Feliciano is fine at RG provided he's able to recover. I keep going back to that LG spot..

[Hapless Bills Fan]

5 minutes ago, Turk71 said:

I still think Ford should have been playing guard. He was highly recruited out of high school as a guard, played guard in college until injuries required he switch to tackle. I read several draft analysts say that his footwork was not yet good enough to block on the outside and from what I've seen they were right.

 

It was notable that Beane didn't commit to Ford playing RT in his end of season presser.  He praised his "versatility"

 

3 minutes ago, LSHMEAB said:

Center is such an odd position. There are so few guys that have the cerebral part down in addition to EXCELLENCE in the physical aspect of the game. An "effective" center really only needs to be a "solid" blocker as long as they're getting everything else right. Wood INDEED looked a whole lot better when he had help at guard. Urbik and Pears. Eeek. So yeah, I think Feliciano is fine at RG provided he's able to recover. I keep going back to that LG spot..

 

So did Ford play RG or LG?

 

Feliciano played both RG and LG for the Raiders.  If Ford is a better RG, it might make some sense to put him there, try Feliciano at LG, and play Nsekhe or shop for an RT.  What's the tackle market look like in FA?

 

Or maybe Ford will work hard on his feet while his shoulder is healing

[LSHMEAB]

4 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

It was notable that Beane didn't commit to Ford playing RT in his end of season presser.  He praised his "versatility"

 

 

So did Ford play RG or LG?

 

Feliciano played both RG and LG for the Raiders.  If Ford is a better RG, it might make some sense to put him there, try Feliciano at LG, and play Nsekhe or shop for an RT.  What's the tackle market look like in FA?

 

Or maybe Ford will work hard on his feet while his shoulder is healing

So that brings up yet another tricky point. I'm not even sold on Ford at GUARD. With his size, he SHOULD be able to run people over, but I haven't seen it.

[Turk71]

3 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Not really.  The services provided to the NFL teams and BCS teams aren't necessarily the same "special sauce numbers" that are boiled up for the public.

 If they are paying, I would think they are definitely getting far more in depth analysis than a simple numerical summary that's given to the public for free. 

  My point is that pro and college teams value their analysis far greater than a lot of posters realize.

[Doc Brown]

For anybody interested here's the Athletic's ratings of the same players from first to worst using a GPA scale.  The only disparities that jump out to me is PFF is higher on McKenzie while lower on Singletary, Knox, and Spain.  They both agree that Ford had a rough rookie year.

 

1.)  Singletary - 3.34 (66.0)

2.)  Brown - 3.18 (75.8)

3.)  Dawkins - 3.16 (73.3)

4.) Beasley - 3.00 (73.6)

5.)  Knox - 2.96  (60.0)

6.)Nsekhe - 2.92 (67.3)

7. Morse - 2.90 (66.4)

8.)  Spain - 2.85 (55.4)

9.)  Allen 2.82  (64.2)

10.)  Duke - 2.81 (65.3)

11.)  McKenzie - 2.80 (68.8)

12.)  Feliciano - 2.65 (64.1)

13.)  Ford - 2.23 (52.4)

[MassHog]

I saw Tre White was ranked as the 19th CB, so this is obviously some bullspit

[Turk71]

1 hour ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

It was notable that Beane didn't commit to Ford playing RT in his end of season presser.  He praised his "versatility"

 

 

So did Ford play RG or LG?

 

Feliciano played both RG and LG for the Raiders.  If Ford is a better RG, it might make some sense to put him there, try Feliciano at LG, and play Nsekhe or shop for an RT.  What's the tackle market look like in FA?

 

Or maybe Ford will work hard on his feet while his shoulder is healing

Jack Conklin is the prized fa at rt.

[GreggTX]

Do they not grade TE's on their blocking? Even WR's should be graded on that as part of their overall grade IMO.

 

Conklin is all there is in FA at RT and injuries have made him very average. I don't know if  time and healing will change that. I do know that I want to add a couple probowlers on our OL, though. I think that would help Josh Allen a lot. I really want us to be able to control the game more by handing the ball off more.

 

Not sure why all the hate for Spain. He only gave up 1 sack all year and we ran well to the left.

Edited January 17, 2020 by GreggTX

[Mickey]

6 hours ago, kbarrettb said:

Josh improves this year but he needs to continue to get better. If he improves by the same margin this year as he does next we will have a really good thing going. He needs to complete more passes. 

 

We already have a really good thing going. Raw as hell out of the draft and in Allen's second year we secure a play off spot with 2 weeks to spare and were within a play or two of winning the division and securing a first round bye. He can be even better and I think he will be even better but don't lose sight of the bottom line, he is a winner. Our WR's need to be better, our O-line needs to be better, our kicker needs to be better, etc. Lots of room for improvement on this team, including Josh, and that is the exciting part, we had a great year and we have lots of room for growth.