NYG requested permission to interview Daboll for OC - DENIED

[BigBillsFan]

It's so complex the offense hasn't figured it out

Edited January 17, 2020 by BigBillsFan

[Shaw66]

9 minutes ago, ColoradoBills said:

 

I don't know either.  I do believe it's their thought process though.

 

Yes to the pass blocking.  Everything needs to improve some and that includes JA learning to move properly in the pocket and reading the

pressure better.

All of this.

 

I say often that I really have very little understanding of how to build a football team.   I spend my time watching what the regime in power does and ask myself whether it makes sense.   

 

I'm high on McDermott and Beane because after listening to them and watching them, I think what they're doing DOES make sense.  That doesn't mean it's the only way, but while they're the guys, it's going to be done their way.

 

As for the best way to get Allen up the learning curve, they've been very clear that their plan was that Allen would sit the first year.   They couldn't stick with the plan, and as they've said, Allen had a rocky first year, but he seems to have survived it.   He was better in 2019, but he had his stretches where he still looked like a rookie.  

[BADOLBILZ]

6 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I want the Bills to win too. But I want them to win Championships. I think the most likely way of the Bills doing that is for Allen to grow into a true franchise Quarterback. To do that we are going to have to let him throw and live with the consequences if he makes some mistakes. You don't learn to read defenses in the passing game handing it off.

 

On Gore specifically - I agree. I never liked that signing. I don't think Brian Daboll was pounding the table to be given Frank Gore. At times were there too many plays where we ran Gore when Singletary could have been on the field? Sure. But equally your second running back as to be a guy capable of carrying it 5 to 8 times a game. I don't believe the Bills front office gave the coaching staff that guy.

 

 

 

Yeah you were wrong about Gore that was a great signing.............but they used him up with 75 highly productive carries plus other full time duty in the first 5 games.

 

Too much too soon.......he was spent after that.

 

They over-used McCoy when he was here too and it was disastrous to his production per touch.

 

[GunnerBill]

1 minute ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

 

Yeah you were wrong about Gore that was a great signing.............but they used him up with 75 highly productive carries plus other full time duty in the first 5 games.

 

Too much too soon.......he was spent after that.

 

They over-used McCoy when he was here too and it was disastrous to his production per touch.

 

 

Ha. I was not. 

[ColoradoBills]

9 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

All of this.

 

I say often that I really have very little understanding of how to build a football team.   I spend my time watching what the regime in power does and ask myself whether it makes sense.   

 

I'm high on McDermott and Beane because after listening to them and watching them, I think what they're doing DOES make sense.  That doesn't mean it's the only way, but while they're the guys, it's going to be done their way.

 

As for the best way to get Allen up the learning curve, they've been very clear that their plan was that Allen would sit the first year.   They couldn't stick with the plan, and as they've said, Allen had a rocky first year, but he seems to have survived it.   He was better in 2019, but he had his stretches where he still looked like a rookie.  

 

We agree on that Shaw.  

This is the first GM/HC duo that I spend most of my time looking at WHY they are doing what they do versus how many "dumb" things 

that have happened with many of the previous regimes.

 

One thing that makes me feel somewhat confident in them is that some of the questionable moves and decisions they have made they

have admitted their mistakes.  I count those as positive learning experiences.

Let's hope the needle keeps pointing toward the north and Daboll can put a decent performing offense together next season.

[Shaw66]

1 minute ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

 

Yeah you were wrong about Gore that was a great signing.............but they used him up with 75 highly productive carries plus other full time duty in the first 5 games.

 

Too much too soon.......he was spent after that.

 

They over-used McCoy when he was here too and it was disastrous to his production per touch.

 

Interesting comments.  I never really focused that much on McCoy in this regard, but it was dramatic for Gore.   He was the same Frank Gore we've seen for years during the first quarter of the season, and then he was done.   

 

I don't, however, how much benefit the Bills would have gotten spreading those 75 carries over 16 games.   

[Luka]

I don't care what Daboll says, this offense needs an identity. Are we a running team? Are we a passing team? Your identity dictates your play calling. Your identity dictates what other teams must prepare for. Your identity helps to narrow the scope and improve the execution on a week to week basis. You only deviate from that identity when the other team has proven they have answers for what you can execute perfectly.

 

That lack of identity is why his gameday play calling would often go off the rails. The offense didn't have that safety net of a small group of plays that they could typically execute under any circumstance. They didn't have that "base defense" so to speak. If that doesn't get fixed, the results will be the same next year.

[Shaw66]

1 minute ago, Luka said:

I don't care what Daboll says, this offense needs an identity. Are we a running team? Are we a passing team? Your identity dictates your play calling. Your identity dictates what other teams must prepare for. Your identity helps to narrow the scope and improve the execution on a week to week basis. You only deviate from that identity when the other team has proven they have answers for what you can execute perfectly.

 

That lack of identity is why his gameday play calling would often go off the rails. The offense didn't have that safety net of a small group of plays that they could typically execute under any circumstance. They didn't have that "base defense" so to speak. If that doesn't get fixed, the results will be the same next year.

There's a lot to be said for this perspective.   When all else fails, what can we go back to that we know will work?   I thought that was the short passing game early in the season, but it dried up. 

[reddogblitz]

41 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

As for the best way to get Allen up the learning curve, they've been very clear that their plan was that Allen would sit the first year.   They couldn't stick with the plan, and as they've said, Allen had a rocky first year, but he seems to have survived it. 

 

Things like this is what give me pause about THE PROCESS. 

 

They make some bone headed head scratches like this.  The didn't want Josh to start.  They had a Vet they cut that could have started over Josh.  They didn't sign any vet QBs even though there were many available. Instead they went with the money ball approach and took McCarron and he couldn't make the team. Then they go into the year with Nate Peterman, a guy with only 2 shaky starts under his belt and the rook they didn't want to play. Then when Josh did get hurt they couldn't even play the guy they kept and had to sign street FAs Derek and Baker.  This  didn't just happen to THE PROCESS, it was totally self inflicted.

 

I saw a similar thing this year with RB. We had 4 of them.  1st, Singletary was great but he is small and they didn't want to run him too much cuz they didn't know how much he could take.  2nd string was Gore who they couldn't give it to much because he was 36 years old and after the first 5 games rarely got more than 1 yard per carry. Then they had a 3rd string guy they couldn't even suit up in Yeldon. Why?  Is he a fumbler?  Fumbled once in PS and once in RS.  Did he have a history of fumbler?  Not that I can find.  If he was, why sign him in the first place?  Then we had Penny who I guess wasn't good enough to carry the football.  Oh yeah, we also had a guy that couldn't play this year.  Again, a self inflicted hole.

 

Player personnel decisions have been odd IMHO like in the cases above.

 

Hopefully these kind of blunders are behind us since they've taken ownership and learned.

[BADOLBILZ]

23 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

Interesting comments.  I never really focused that much on McCoy in this regard, but it was dramatic for Gore.   He was the same Frank Gore we've seen for years during the first quarter of the season, and then he was done.   

 

I don't, however, how much benefit the Bills would have gotten spreading those 75 carries over 16 games.   

 

 

Probably about 4.5 ypa...........which is where he was at after 5 games and 80 touches.

 

I think they could have given him 100-130 carries distributed more evenly and maintained that kind of production.

 

In general I think older backs need their carries cut about 20% per year.

 

One of my other gripes with McDermott was running McCoy to death in 2017 after a lessened workload had helped him have maybe his most efficient season as a pro in 2016.

 

He hasn't been right since.

 

But less carries helped his production in KC...........he just fumbled too much and lost them a game.

 

One of the reasons they over-fed Gore was because he didn't fumble once in 180 touches.

[BADOLBILZ]

32 minutes ago, Luka said:

I don't care what Daboll says, this offense needs an identity. Are we a running team? Are we a passing team? Your identity dictates your play calling. Your identity dictates what other teams must prepare for. Your identity helps to narrow the scope and improve the execution on a week to week basis. You only deviate from that identity when the other team has proven they have answers for what you can execute perfectly.

 

That lack of identity is why his gameday play calling would often go off the rails. The offense didn't have that safety net of a small group of plays that they could typically execute under any circumstance. They didn't have that "base defense" so to speak. If that doesn't get fixed, the results will be the same next year.

 

 

Exactly............and I get the whole "but the Patriots change their game plan every week and make huge shifts in identity in season" argument.............but that's not the 2002 Patriots that was the Patriots after Brady was in the league for nearly 10 years.   

[Augie]

 

I think another reason Gore got so many plays (especially early) was his reliability on pass protection. Singletary was a rookie, and a small one at that. He had to get up to speed, know where the pressure was coming from, then prove he could keep Josh clean more than not. 

[BADOLBILZ]

58 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Ha. I was not. 

 

 

RB's in general are pretty replaceable but at $2M for 180 touches,  zero fumbles and leadership brought he was probably the best value for the dollar that they got in UFA last year.

 

Just too bad they ran him into the ground because they had no faith in Yeldon and were afraid to add a different RB.    Perhaps out of concern that the offense being a lot to pick up and fear of mistakes.

 

This much is for sure...........they need more RB's that they are actually willing to play next year.

[CheshireCT]

On 1/16/2020 at 2:50 PM, matter2003 said:

This is just stupid...why would a team try to interview someone for a lateral move? As if the team they are requesting permission from is just going to be like "Oh sure, go interview him, we will just find someone else"

 

Yeah, this is a situation where a lot people would be wise to "be careful what you ask for".  We don't know how much Daboll is responsible for Allen's progression from year 1 to year 2, but from people in the know its considered A LOT.  

 

Replace the OC and you could see Allen regress and potentially regress badly from year 2 to year 3.

 

Absolutely. And to continue that train of thought....I’m not sure Bills fans have EVER been happy with the OC. LOL

[Hapless Bills Fan]

1 hour ago, BADOLBILZ said:

RB's in general are pretty replaceable but at $2M for 180 touches,  zero fumbles and leadership brought he was probably the best value for the dollar that they got in UFA last year.

 

Just too bad they ran him into the ground because they had no faith in Yeldon and were afraid to add a different RB.    Perhaps out of concern that the offense being a lot to pick up and fear of mistakes.

 

This much is for sure...........they need more RB's that they are actually willing to play next year.

 

Agreed.

 

So I was looking into # of carries for our different rushers earlier today and a thought occurred to me.

Could we have committed (in the contract) to Gore, to give him a certain average number of touches per game?

Does such a thing ever happen in player contracts?

 

I could see where being guaranteed a certain # of touches for every game where he's healthy would be more important to Gore than more $$ given that he wanted that run at the record books.  I was just taken aback at how close to 10 attempts per game Gore averaged.  And it got me thinking.

 

Or perhaps I should invest in a tin foil hat.  One with a little pink and orange propeller on top.  But it would solve the mystery of why we kept running Gore and his 1-2 ypc and not Singletary.

 

[Nihilarian]

15 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

I think the point of a complex offense, and I think this is something McDermott really believes in, is that with a complex offense you can adjust your style of play to attack any defense.  

 

A lot has been said about the Ravens game, and about how the Ravens zero blitz approach was known and the Bills weren't prepared for it.   I don't know if they weren't prepared or they were prepared by couldn't execute.   In any case, the point of a complex offense is that it fill your tool box with all the tools you need, regardless of what the defense is giving you. 

 

In addition, it makes it difficult for the defense to prepare for you, because they're forced to prepare for everything.  

How did that "complex" offense work against the Patriots, Ravens, Texans? Truth is it didn't! Come to think of it the 2019 Bills were still 26th in passing yards, 24th in passing TD's. About on par for Brian Daboll with his 6 years of experienced as an NFL OC with four different teams.

 

Anyway, the Bills did attempt to defeat that cover o blitz by having Allen throw deep a few times early in that game and when he didn't complete any of those deep passes that Ravens defense that blitzed around 50% of the time stepped up their blitzes to 60% or more. Hitting a deep bomb against a defense using cover o works because there is no deep safety to keep that play from becoming a TD. 

 

Still, there is more than one way to defeat that blitz with screens, hot reads or the deep post. Simply step up the protections by adding extra tight ends, tackles to block the extra man if they have a star pass rusher.  The Ravens and Patriots defenses work because they have such good secondaries that can run man coverage's. The Patriots cover o works well because as soon as a blitzer is blocked he drops into coverage.

 

Bottom line: basically the Bills OC did try to defeat the cover o blitz and when his first plan didn't work he had no answer the rest of the game, 39 pass attempts, 6 sacks.

 

This is a way to ruin a QB. We all watched as the Bills lame OC's ruined JP, ruined, Edwards, ruined EJ. Destroying a young, inexperienced QB's confidence and demoralizing him is not the way to forcing him into greatness. 

 

Can anyone guess how many QB's in the league can beat a blitz consistently, not many! Two of the greatest in defeating a blitz are Peyton Manning and Tom Brady.

 

The late great Bill Walsh stated it generally takes four years of playing in the NFL to fully develop an NFL QB. When you force a young player into a sped up process, will that make him learn faster? I dunno, takes four years of undergrad degree, four years of med school and 3-7 years of residency to become a doctor in the US. Think forcing him to learn faster will make him a better doctor?

 

[GunnerBill]

53 minutes ago, Nihilarian said:

 

The late great Bill Walsh stated it generally takes four years of playing in the NFL to fully develop an NFL QB. When you force a young player into a sped up process, will that make him learn faster? I dunno, takes four years of undergrad degree, four years of med school and 3-7 years of residency to become a doctor in the US. Think forcing him to learn faster will make him a better doctor?

 

 

False analogy because in those years as a resident they are practicing the skills to be a doctor in live situations. Indeed in life and death situations often. Your proposal for Josh is for him to learn by not doing. He will not learn how to drop back in the pocket, read defenses quickly and throw quickly by turning around and handing off. 

 

Peyton Manning said it himself. He was told his first 3 years you will make mistakes, don't worry about them. Bill Parcells (known as a run the ball and play defense guy) used to tell a young Phil Simms "if you ain't throwing picks you ain't trying." You don't develop young Quarterbacks by hiding them. You develop them by trusting them and allowing them to make mistakes. 

[Nihilarian]

12 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

As for the best way to get Allen up the learning curve, they've been very clear that their plan was that Allen would sit the first year.   They couldn't stick with the plan, and as they've said, Allen had a rocky first year, but he seems to have survived it.   He was better in 2019, but he had his stretches where he still looked like a rookie.  

When Raiders GM and past NFL league draft analyst Mike Mayock did his scouting on Josh Allen he stated that he that the greatest potential of that years QB draft class.

 

However, he also stated that Allen was very raw in coming from a college not known for developing QB's. Josh Rosen at UCLA, Sam Darnold at USC, Baker Mayfield at Oklahoma, Lamar Jackson at Louisville all were more polished to start in the NFL their first season and all were in big time college programs that allowed them to develop into NFL ready players.

 

Josh Allen rated as very raw and needed some time on the bench to learn and develop. He was supposed to sit for a season and learn behind a veteran QB and instead he was thrown into the fray because the guy they had pegged as the starting QB (who got all the first string reps) was horrific. How bad was he? 5 of 18 for 24 yards, 2 INTs, 3 sacks in nearly three quarters of a game bad. (BTW, how did that "complex" offense work for Peterman?)

 

Stating that,  in his two games in 2019 QB Matt Barkley took steps backwards too In Daboll's scheme. 2018, one game start 60% completion percentage 117.4 rate, QBR of 83.4.

2019, 2 games 27 of 51 for a 52.9% completion percentage, a rating of 51.0, a QBR of 9.2. Barkley in his NFL career has had a completion percentage of 60% or darn near that in his five seasons...until this year.  

 

2018 Peterman 0-2, 44 of 81 for a 54.3% completion percentage...296 yards, 1 TD, 7 INTs. 

2018 Anderson 0-2, 42 of 70 for a 60% completion percentage...465 yards, 0 TDs, 4 INTs. 

 

So, it's not just Josh Allen with having difficulty in Daboll's offensive scheme. 

 

 

[Shaw66]

3 hours ago, Nihilarian said:

When Raiders GM and past NFL league draft analyst Mike Mayock did his scouting on Josh Allen he stated that he that the greatest potential of that years QB draft class.

 

However, he also stated that Allen was very raw in coming from a college not known for developing QB's. Josh Rosen at UCLA, Sam Darnold at USC, Baker Mayfield at Oklahoma, Lamar Jackson at Louisville all were more polished to start in the NFL their first season and all were in big time college programs that allowed them to develop into NFL ready players.

 

Josh Allen rated as very raw and needed some time on the bench to learn and develop. He was supposed to sit for a season and learn behind a veteran QB and instead he was thrown into the fray because the guy they had pegged as the starting QB (who got all the first string reps) was horrific. How bad was he? 5 of 18 for 24 yards, 2 INTs, 3 sacks in nearly three quarters of a game bad. (BTW, how did that "complex" offense work for Peterman?)

 

Stating that,  in his two games in 2019 QB Matt Barkley took steps backwards too In Daboll's scheme. 2018, one game start 60% completion percentage 117.4 rate, QBR of 83.4.

2019, 2 games 27 of 51 for a 52.9% completion percentage, a rating of 51.0, a QBR of 9.2. Barkley in his NFL career has had a completion percentage of 60% or darn near that in his five seasons...until this year.  

 

2018 Peterman 0-2, 44 of 81 for a 54.3% completion percentage...296 yards, 1 TD, 7 INTs. 

2018 Anderson 0-2, 42 of 70 for a 60% completion percentage...465 yards, 0 TDs, 4 INTs. 

 

So, it's not just Josh Allen with having difficulty in Daboll's offensive scheme. 

 

 

Wow, you've really gotten yourself going about this stuff.   I think you're confusing two or three different points, and I'm not sure what your actual point is. 

 

First, I've never bought the notion that QBs are "ruined" by being thrown into the fire too early.   It's absurd, in my mind, to say that Trent Edwards, JP Losman and EJ Manuel were "ruined" because they didn't get more time on the bench.   There wasn't anything anyone was going to do to make any one of those guys franchise QBs.   Troy Aikman wasn't ruined, Peyton Manning wasn't ruined, John Elway wasn't ruined by starting early.   So I don't agree with anything you say about that.

 

Second, the fact that Peterman and Anderson didn't succeed in the Daboll's complicated system doesn't prove that running the system is wrong - it proves that it takes time to learn to run the system.   It simply may be the case that any young QB is going to struggle in his system for a while, and any old mediocre QB is going to struggle in it.   

 

Now, there's a real discussion to be had about whether it would be better to layer on the levels of complexity as your QB masters one level after another.   It doesn't seem that Daboll has done that, and at least based comments I remember, McDermott doesn't believe that's the right approach.   He has said often that he has a scheme and he gives his players that scheme to run and he expects them to grow into it.   You can argue that that's the wrong approach, and I'm sure there are coaches who go about it differently, and I certainly can't prove that you're wrong, but I also don't believe it's possible to prove you're right, either.   In any case, I don't think McDermott is going to ruin Josh Allen doing it this way.    

 

And because I don't think you can ruin Josh Allen by playing him, I think it's irrelevant whether Allen was more NFL ready than Darnold or Rosen or Mayfield.  So what?  That isn't a reason to sit him.   And, by the way, if those guys were more NFL ready (and, by the way, based on his college experience, Lamar Jackson definitely was NOT NFL ready), throwing Allen into the fire seems to have worked, because after two NFL seasons Allen is the best of the top four prospects.   

 

I think the big, fundamental, philosophical difference one can have with what it seems McDermott is doing with the offense is that he seems to be sacrificing, perhaps unnecessarily, short-term success for long-term success.   I think what critics like you really are saying is that McDermott, Daboll and Beane could have done more to make the offense more effective.   Some of that, and the real point of this discussion, is that Daboll should have but wasn't able to accomplish more.  His critics are saying he's been an OC for a long time, and if he wasn't able to do any better in 2019 with what he had, that's pretty good evidence he just isn't good enough.  That is, he's no different than the corner back who just isn't fast enough or the quarterback whose arm just isn't strong enough.  That's a judgment that McDermott and Beane have to make, and it seems they've made it for this year.   It seems that they believe that Daboll can learn to do all that he should be doing, and that it's a good investment to work with him another year.  

 

On that final point, I have to admit that you and others have raised a lot of good points suggesting Daboll just isn't up to the challenge.  A lot of it sounds right to me.   I also have a lot of respect for McDermott, his judgment, and his willingness to make hard decisions, and what McDermott is saying to us is that Daboll is a guy he can build with.   That's enough for me to decide just to be patient and go with it for another year.   

 

 

 

 

[Billsfan1972]

49 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

Wow, you've really gotten yourself going about this stuff.   I think you're confusing two or three different points, and I'm not sure what your actual point is. 

 

First, I've never bought the notion that QBs are "ruined" by being thrown into the fire too early.   It's absurd, in my mind, to say that Trent Edwards, JP Losman and EJ Manuel were "ruined" because they didn't get more time on the bench.   There wasn't anything anyone was going to do to make any one of those guys franchise QBs.   Troy Aikman wasn't ruined, Peyton Manning wasn't ruined, John Elway wasn't ruined by starting early.   So I don't agree with anything you say about that.

 

Second, the fact that Peterman and Anderson didn't succeed in the Daboll's complicated system doesn't prove that running the system is wrong - it proves that it takes time to learn to run the system.   It simply may be the case that any young QB is going to struggle in his system for a while, and any old mediocre QB is going to struggle in it.   

 

Now, there's a real discussion to be had about whether it would be better to layer on the levels of complexity as your QB masters one level after another.   It doesn't seem that Daboll has done that, and at least based comments I remember, McDermott doesn't believe that's the right approach.   He has said often that he has a scheme and he gives his players that scheme to run and he expects them to grow into it.   You can argue that that's the wrong approach, and I'm sure there are coaches who go about it differently, and I certainly can't prove that you're wrong, but I also don't believe it's possible to prove you're right, either.   In any case, I don't think McDermott is going to ruin Josh Allen doing it this way.    

 

And because I don't think you can ruin Josh Allen by playing him, I think it's irrelevant whether Allen was more NFL ready than Darnold or Rosen or Mayfield.  So what?  That isn't a reason to sit him.   And, by the way, if those guys were more NFL ready (and, by the way, based on his college experience, Lamar Jackson definitely was NOT NFL ready), throwing Allen into the fire seems to have worked, because after two NFL seasons Allen is the best of the top four prospects.   

 

I think the big, fundamental, philosophical difference one can have with what it seems McDermott is doing with the offense is that he seems to be sacrificing, perhaps unnecessarily, short-term success for long-term success.   I think what critics like you really are saying is that McDermott, Daboll and Beane could have done more to make the offense more effective.   Some of that, and the real point of this discussion, is that Daboll should have but wasn't able to accomplish more.  His critics are saying he's been an OC for a long time, and if he wasn't able to do any better in 2019 with what he had, that's pretty good evidence he just isn't good enough.  That is, he's no different than the corner back who just isn't fast enough or the quarterback whose arm just isn't strong enough.  That's a judgment that McDermott and Beane have to make, and it seems they've made it for this year.   It seems that they believe that Daboll can learn to do all that he should be doing, and that it's a good investment to work with him another year.  

 

On that final point, I have to admit that you and others have raised a lot of good points suggesting Daboll just isn't up to the challenge.  A lot of it sounds right to me.   I also have a lot of respect for McDermott, his judgment, and his willingness to make hard decisions, and what McDermott is saying to us is that Daboll is a guy he can build with.   That's enough for me to decide just to be patient and go with it for another year.   

 

 

 

 

Too much respect for McD imo.

 

The issue is that I wanted to see 2019 be the season of Allen and to have a better understanding of what his potential is.  I thought way too conservative and again at half a season behind in his development.

 

The high point is a 230 yard performance against Dallas.....  Really that's the best we've seen.....

 

I wanted at least 2 eye popping games.  We didn't see it and one then wonders if we ever will under this regime and their talk.

 

How do you attract skill offensive players?  Sell the. That your team was ts to be a top 10 offense..... not 24th and the same OC.