Josh Allen vs. Russel Wilson Year 2

[warrior9]

9 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Try this one:

Watson Rivers Fitzpatrick Rodgers Wilson Wentz

No peeking!

Wait! Why not Mahones, Wentz, D. Jones, Mayfield, Hodges?

Edited January 16, 2020 by warrior9

[dakrider]

Regarding receivers - I don't think the Bills have poor receivers, but they just  don't have the dynamic playmaking receivers many good teams have.  

I've seen Russell Wilson throw up many 50-50 balls and seemingly uncatchable passes that his receivers make a great catch.  Many teams also have outstanding tight ends that manage to get open and catch a lot of balls.  Bills are deficient in all these areas.  Bills need more production from their tight ends, they need their receivers to make plays and they also need a bigger rb to supplement Singletary.  You only need a couple of these big plays a game.  Bills only really had about 1-2 bad games this year and most of their losses - 1 or 2 big plays would have made the difference.  

For me comparing quarterbacks is less to do with stats and more to do with what some of these other qb's (like Wilson or Garappolo) are doing and how their doing it.  Looking at stats is just too misleading.  Philip Rivers, Jameis Winston, Jared Goff, Matt Ryan, Derek Carr ... all had relatively good stats this year but they don't really propel their teams.  Some of them look good between the 20's, some of them just sling the ball all over and have to many turnovers, and some just make critical mistakes.  Stats are a fair benchmark but they just don't tell the story.  

[DCofNC]

If this comparison is fair, why not look at the comparison of Mitch Turbisky in his second year vs Allen as fair?  He out performed Allen in about every category, except for the digging yourself a first half hole to have to recover from, so there are less comebacks (most over rated "stat" people here love to talk about, btw.).  Yet this year, when raw stats suggest he's still a better passer than Allen, it's understood he's a bust and Chicago will have to move on if they are going to get anywhere.  Oh and he also lead 3 comebacks and had 3 GWD as well, so he's  "clutch". 

[DCofNC]

On 1/16/2020 at 1:36 PM, dakrider said:

Regarding receivers - I don't think the Bills have poor receivers, but they just  don't have the dynamic playmaking receivers many good teams have.  

I've seen Russell Wilson throw up many 50-50 balls and seemingly uncatchable passes that his receivers make a great catch.  Many teams also have outstanding tight ends that manage to get open and catch a lot of balls.  Bills are deficient in all these areas.  Bills need more production from their tight ends, they need their receivers to make plays and they also need a bigger rb to supplement Singletary.  You only need a couple of these big plays a game.  Bills only really had about 1-2 bad games this year and most of their losses - 1 or 2 big plays would have made the difference.  

For me comparing quarterbacks is less to do with stats and more to do with what some of these other qb's (like Wilson or Garappolo) are doing and how their doing it.  Looking at stats is just too misleading.  Philip Rivers, Jameis Winston, Jared Goff, Matt Ryan, Derek Carr ... all had relatively good stats this year but they don't really propel their teams.  Some of them look good between the 20's, some of them just sling the ball all over and have to many turnovers, and some just make critical mistakes.  Stats are a fair benchmark but they just don't tell the story.  

The issue with what you are saying here is, the ball has to be 50/50 for recievers to have a chance to make that play, Josh has consistently thrown the ball where NO ONE can get to it. He missed by yards on many balls this year.  He was let down by Duke Williams in the endzone last game, and Knox got hit in the hands way too many times, but his deep ball, which is where big plays come from, never got close to target until week 10.  He consistently left 2-4 bigs plays on the field every week by not even being close and a lot of those were to WIDE OPEN receivers.  Smoke should have had 1500 yards this year and been talked about as the break out player of the year, but Allen KILLED his numbers with awful balls.  I'm not saying Allen can't get better, but the idea the WRs are the issue is WAY over blown.  Remember when EJ " just needed weapons" as did Tyrod etc.. Watkins was handed 14M a year, Woods is a top 20 WR, Goodwin went on to have a really good year in SF.  Theres only so much a WR can do, when the QB cant put it on them.

[JetsFan20]

5 minutes ago, DCofNC said:

If this comparison is fair, why not look at the comparison of Mitch Turbisky in his second year vs Allen as fair?  He out performed Allen in about every category, except for the digging yourself a first half hole to have to recover from, so there are less comebacks (most over rated "stat" people here love to talk about, btw.).  Yet this year, when raw stats suggest he's still a better passer than Allen, it's understood he's a bust and Chicago will have to move on if they are going to get anywhere.  Oh and he also lead 3 comebacks and had 3 GWD as well, so he's  "clutch". 

 

Trubisky was on a front running team in year 2, and wasn’t asked to do a ton other than take care of the football. Nagy’s dink and dunk offense works well when you are protecting a 14point lead, but we saw things weren’t great when defense regressed a bit. 

[DCofNC]

1 minute ago, JetsFan20 said:

 

Trubisky was on a front running team in year 2, and wasn’t asked to do a ton other than take care of the football. Nagy’s dink and dunk offense works well when you are protecting a 14point lead, but we saw things weren’t great when defense regressed a bit. 

This offense was as conservative as any, and you certainly didn't have them going out there looking to score once they had a lead, McDermott is conservative to a fault.  It's not different.

[JetsFan20]

4 minutes ago, DCofNC said:

This offense was as conservative as any, and you certainly didn't have them going out there looking to score once they had a lead, McDermott is conservative to a fault.  It's not different.

 

Right now to me Darnold, Trubisky, and Allen are on the same level with regards to reading a defense. I’d bet if you took a look at almost all the good throws the three QBs made this year it falls into (2) categories:

 

(1) Ball released under 3 seconds (great play design and correct pre-snap read) 

(2) Scramble outside of the pocket and find secondary receiver 

 

Year (2) of Trubisky had A LOT of (1). Nagy had a great year as a play caller, and I think DCs caught onto his system a bit this year. These are not QBs that have shown any ability to stay in the pocket and go through their progressions at a high level. 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

13 minutes ago, JetsFan20 said:

 

Right now to me Darnold, Trubisky, and Allen are on the same level with regards to reading a defense. I’d bet if you took a look at almost all the good throws the three QBs made this year it falls into (2) categories:

 

(1) Ball released under 3 seconds (great play design and correct pre-snap read) 

(2) Scramble outside of the pocket and find secondary receiver 

 

Year (2) of Trubisky had A LOT of (1). Nagy had a great year as a play caller, and I think DCs caught onto his system a bit this year. These are not QBs that have shown any ability to stay in the pocket and go through their progressions at a high level. 

 

JetsFan, I can't speak for Nagy's offense or Gase's. 

But it needs to be understood that a bunch of Josh Allen's roll-outs aren't scrambles; they're designed to hit secondary routes.  The Beasley TD throw in the Dallas game is an example of this.  Cover1 did a piece on the way the Bills are using R&S for the Athletic.

 

There have been examples where it turned into a scramble because Ford and Mongo tripped on each other's feet instead of executing their assignment - one dissected in Brett Kollman's Film Room piece on the Ravens game, one mentioned by Daboll in the Browns post game presser, and one diagrammed by Kubiak in his review of the Houston game, and of course there are others.

 

The point is, the Bills have incorporated Mouse Davis Run and Shoot concepts, so every Allen roll-out is not a scramble; it can be a designed part of the play or a technique Allen uses to manipulate coverage.  They exploit his mobility as part of their play design.  And yes, he does stay in the pocket and go through progressions at times.

 

I think Darnold is ahead of Allen in his ability to read a defense right now and to throw with anticipation and accurately when on the move, from what I've seen.  But I'll admit I haven't studied him.  And I think when Darnold is scrambling, he's scrambling.  I don't think Gase incorporates secondary routes.  I don't know about Nagy.

[DCofNC]

8 minutes ago, JetsFan20 said:

 

Right now to me Darnold, Trubisky, and Allen are on the same level with regards to reading a defense. I’d bet if you took a look at almost all the good throws the three QBs made this year it falls into (2) categories:

 

(1) Ball released under 3 seconds (great play design and correct pre-snap read) 

(2) Scramble outside of the pocket and find secondary receiver 

 

Year (2) of Trubisky had A LOT of (1). Nagy had a great year as a play caller, and I think DCs caught onto his system a bit this year. These are not QBs that have shown any ability to stay in the pocket and go through their progressions at a high level. 

We could be best football friends.  You are spot on.  When Allen hit the last step of the drop and fired those 6 yard darts to Beasley or had the chance to run around and make a play, good things happen.  The moment he had to sit and read the field, all hell broke loose.   While I think Darnold is a better passer than Allen, he struggles with pressure and reads as well.  I was a big fan of Darnold coming out and thought he would be doing more at this point, he has been a colossal disappointment thus far.  That draft calss thatvwas supposed to be '84 or 04' reincarnated, looks like it may go down as the most dissapointing QB drafts in a long time.  If I had to call it as I see it now:

 

Mayfield : solid, never spectacular starter, probably will be replaced.

 

Darnold : Jamis Winston without the crab legs?

 

Allen: The struggling version of Cam Newton

 

Rosen: out if the league after 4 years

 

Jackson:  less of a passer version of Mike Vick, hopefully no dog fights.

 

Translation, none of the 1st round guys end up as your real franchise players.  Where we disagree slightly, I think Darnold still has the best chance to become more, he just has to prove he can read a D.  That can be learned, regardless of what people here try to convince me of, I have never seen a wildly innacurate QB ever change the first 21 years of their throwing mechanics in the the pros and suddenly become a great passer, so my hope for Allen is low.  

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

On 1/16/2020 at 8:19 AM, warrior9 said:

Wait! Why not Mahones, Wentz, D. Jones, Mayfield, Hodges?

 

..LOL....funny how the "Mayfield Is THE Pick" crowd disappeared after he posted 21TD's/21Picks with the "Super Bowl contending Browns(COUGH)"...now onto Mahomes......remember several posts about the kid being from the leper like "Air Raid offense" and how "an Air Raid QB NEVER makes it in the NFL"....yet the kid defied the odds to date and the "shoulda...coulda...woulda" crowd shines their star and bashes OBD for "blowing the pick".....hindsight is a beautiful thing......Russell Wilson vs Graham Cracker Crumbs is the definition of a blown pick......

Edited January 19, 2020 by OldTimeAFLGuy

[bobobonators]

I really like Josh Allen and he has 100% of my support as a fan. The numbers between him and Wilson do seem similar; however, I still feel that Wilson was a more polished passer at this point in his career. I know the numbers dont necessarily reflect that but I do not remember Wilson missing as many open receivers as Allen has. Again, this is not meant to be a criticism of Allen. Maybe im just jaded since I watch Allen more. 

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

6 minutes ago, bobobonators said:

I really like Josh Allen and he has 100% of my support as a fan. The numbers between him and Wilson do seem similar; however, I still feel that Wilson was a more polished passer at this point in his career. I know the numbers dont necessarily reflect that but I do not remember Wilson missing as many open receivers as Allen has. Again, this is not meant to be a criticism of Allen. Maybe im just jaded since I watch Allen more. 

 

 

...have to agree....Wilson also honed his skills relative to his running ability.....he has graduated from early tendencies to take off to now it is "if or even when"......call it preservation.....I think Josh is progressing as well in that mindset...it is a transition.........

[AlCowlingsTaxiService]

On 1/15/2020 at 11:05 AM, Buffalo Junction said:

If you threw that cast on this team Tate would be playing with Beasley and Brown. The rest would be developmental guys. What they turned into and the players they were when they first got into the league are very different. Kudos to their work ethic and Seattle’s coaching staffs. Comparatively, Allen is throwing to a veteran Beasley and not fresh out of camp UDFA Beasley that caught 15 passes. 
 

I’m not knocking Allen. He’s improved tremendously and no where near his ceiling. His play style and inexperience aren’t exactly great for improving the play of inexperienced receivers though. Some of that is on coaching though.... A lot of these other teams with scrambling QBs have WRs who settle in zones, work back to the QB, etc during a scramble. Ours don’t do that well, and that’s most likely due to coaching. The one guy who really seems to have that aspect figured out is Sweeney, and they stopped playing him (coaching).

You clearly are undervaluing Baldwin 

[HappyDays]

2 hours ago, DCofNC said:

Yet this year, when raw stats suggest he's still a better passer than Allen,

 

Well this is blatantly false. This year Allen ranked better than Trubisky in passer rating, YPA, ANY/A, TD%. Trubisky has a better INT% by 0.1% so I guess that's something. Why would you randomly lie about this?

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

1 hour ago, HappyDays said:

 

Well this is blatantly false. This year Allen ranked better than Trubisky in passer rating, YPA, ANY/A, TD%. Trubisky has a better INT% by 0.1% so I guess that's something. Why would you randomly lie about this?

 

 

.....agree about Allen.....year 2> year 1 easily.....bigger question is why did Tribusky take a step backward?......

[Buffalo Junction]

2 hours ago, AlCowlingsTaxiService said:

You clearly are undervaluing Baldwin 

Not really. Baldwin grew with Wilson. He came into the league as a UDFA and improved.... as did Beasley. My point was that as good as those guys became they weren’t as good during Wilson’s first two seasons. I’ve also stated that it makes me concerned about our ability to identify, draft, and develop wide outs. 

[JetsFan20]

4 hours ago, DCofNC said:

We could be best football friends.  You are spot on.  When Allen hit the last step of the drop and fired those 6 yard darts to Beasley or had the chance to run around and make a play, good things happen.  The moment he had to sit and read the field, all hell broke loose.   While I think Darnold is a better passer than Allen, he struggles with pressure and reads as well.  I was a big fan of Darnold coming out and thought he would be doing more at this point, he has been a colossal disappointment thus far.  That draft calss thatvwas supposed to be '84 or 04' reincarnated, looks like it may go down as the most dissapointing QB drafts in a long time.  If I had to call it as I see it now:

 

Mayfield : solid, never spectacular starter, probably will be replaced.

 

Darnold : Jamis Winston without the crab legs?

 

Allen: The struggling version of Cam Newton

 

Rosen: out if the league after 4 years

 

Jackson:  less of a passer version of Mike Vick, hopefully no dog fights.

 

Translation, none of the 1st round guys end up as your real franchise players.  Where we disagree slightly, I think Darnold still has the best chance to become more, he just has to prove he can read a D.  That can be learned, regardless of what people here try to convince me of, I have never seen a wildly innacurate QB ever change the first 21 years of their throwing mechanics in the the pros and suddenly become a great passer, so my hope for Allen is low.  

With the exception of Mayfield the 2018 QB class came into the league incredibly young. It would be nice if folks could offer some degree of patience, but that just doesn’t happen anymore. 

 

Allen, Darnold, and Baker are almost certain to have another two years to change their narrative on their career. 

[Meatloaf63]

3 hours ago, HappyDays said:

 

Well this is blatantly false. This year Allen ranked better than Trubisky in passer rating, YPA, ANY/A, TD%. Trubisky has a better INT% by 0.1% so I guess that's something. Why would you randomly lie about this?

That’s what people with an agenda do...

[formerlyofCtown]

On 1/15/2020 at 10:34 AM, warrior9 said:

I saw a thread that compared Josh to all second round QB's in the last 15 years or so but I wanted to focus on Russel Wilson because I think they have some similarities and I think Russel Wilson is a gamer and an elite QB. Both are considered mobile passers. Both had great defenses. I think this bodes well for us because Josh is also 2 years younger than RW was in his second year. 

 

What's interesting: They both had a ton of fumbles. Almost identical # of total TD's, yards, INTs, and both relied on the defense quite a bit. Josh took less sacks but had ~5% lower completion percentage.

 

Josh in year 2:

Passing:

Year	Age	Tm	Pos	No.	G	GS	QBrec	Cmp	Att	Cmp%	Yds	TD	TD%	Int	Int%	1D	Lng	Y/A	AY/A	Y/C	Y/G	Rate	QBR	Sk	Yds	NY/A	ANY/A	Sk%	4QC	GWD	AV
2019	23	BUF	QB	17	16	16	10-6-0	271	461	58.8	3089	20	4.3	9	2.0	146	53	6.7	6.7	11.4	193.1	85.3	45.8	38	237	5.72	5.71	7.6	4	5	11

Rushing:

Year	Age	Tm	Pos	No.	G	GS	Rush	Yds	TD	1D	Lng	Y/A	Y/G	A/G	Tgt	Rec	Yds	Y/R	TD	1D	Lng	R/G	Y/G	Ctch%	Y/Tgt	Touch	Y/Tch	YScm	RRTD	Fmb
2019	23	BUF	QB	17	16	16	109	510	9	42	36	4.7	31.9	6.8												109	4.7	510	9	14

 

RW year 2:

Passing:

Year	Age	Tm	Pos	No.	G	GS	QBrec	Cmp	Att	Cmp%	Yds	TD	TD%	Int	Int%	1D	Lng	Y/A	AY/A	Y/C	Y/G	Rate	QBR	Sk	Yds	NY/A	ANY/A	Sk%	4QC	GWD	AV
2013*	25	SEA	QB	3	16	16	13-3-0	257	407	63.1	3357	26	6.4	9	2.2	157	80	8.2	8.5	13.1	209.8	101.2	66.8	44	272	6.84	7.10	9.8	3	4	16

 

Rushing:

Year	Age	Tm	Pos	No.	G	GS	Rush	Yds	TD	1D	Lng	Y/A	Y/G	A/G	Tgt	Rec	Yds	Y/R	TD	1D	Lng	R/G	Y/G	Ctch%	Y/Tgt	Touch	Y/Tch	YScm	RRTD	Fmb
2013*	25	SEA	QB	3	16	16	96	539	1	31	27	5.6	33.7	6.0												96	5.6	539	1	12

 

 

That year, Russel Wilson went to the Pro Bowl. The national narrative is Josh is not a good QB. He had the second most drops in the NFL, he had a rookie TE and RB, and an underwhelming receiving core (although, I do love what Smoke brings). 

 

Russel WIlson has Golden Tate, Marshawn Lynch, Doug Baldwin, Jermaine Kerse (eh), and Zach Miller. 

 

--I think this can shed some positive light on Josh's future potential. It excites me to know he's in good company and I'm excited to see what he can do with some more weapons!

We also had the most revamped roster and depth chart for offense I can remember for any team.

6 hours ago, JetsFan20 said:

 

Right now to me Darnold, Trubisky, and Allen are on the same level with regards to reading a defense. I’d bet if you took a look at almost all the good throws the three QBs made this year it falls into (2) categories:

 

(1) Ball released under 3 seconds (great play design and correct pre-snap read) 

(2) Scramble outside of the pocket and find secondary receiver 

 

Year (2) of Trubisky had A LOT of (1). Nagy had a great year as a play caller, and I think DCs caught onto his system a bit this year. These are not QBs that have shown any ability to stay in the pocket and go through their progressions at a high level. 

Except our guy led us to the playoffs because his play kept improving.  I think if our play calling becomes a little less conservative we would be playing the Titans today regardless of piss poor ( possibly intensional) officiating.  The other two QBs would be watching from home.

 

I also think Allen does a decent job of reading the D but his accuracy is still a work in progress and he trys to do too much and that is the reason for his turnovers.  I think Darnold has always had issues with reading the D. and this is the reason for his Ints.
 

Thinking about the 2018 draft must be as hard as 1983.  Your team passed on Marino in '83 and passed on Josh Allen in 2018.  

 

I know 2012 makes me sick, I really wanted Wilson and then Cousins.

Edited January 19, 2020 by formerlyofCtown

[JetsFan20]

30 minutes ago, formerlyofCtown said:

We also had the most revamped roster and depth chart for offense I can remember for any team.

Except our guy led us to the playoffs because his play kept improving.  I think if our play calling becomes a little less conservative we would be playing the Titans today regardless of piss poor ( possibly intensional) officiating.  The other two QBs would be watching from home.

 

I also think Allen does a decent job of reading the D but his accuracy is still a work in progress and he trys to do too much and that is the reason for his turnovers.  I think Darnold has always had issues with reading the D. and this is the reason for his Ints.
 

Thinking about the 2018 draft must be as hard as 1983.  Your team passed on Marino in '83 and passed on Josh Allen in 2018.  

 

I know 2012 makes me sick, I really wanted Wilson and then Cousins.

Yea...I like Josh Allen as a prospect, but I don’t think he’s Dan Marino yet. Have you ever watched Dan Marino play? 
 

Obviously 2017 the Jets should have drafted Watson or Mahomes, but a lot of teams made that mistake-Bills included.

Edited January 19, 2020 by JetsFan20