Meatloaf63 Posted January 15, 2020 Posted January 15, 2020 13 minutes ago, jrober38 said: The Bills were 8th in the NFL in rush yards this year at 128 yards a game. The Seahawks were 4th in 2013 at 136 yards a game. Not exactly a big difference. You’re an idiot if you think the running game the Bills had the same effectiveness that Marshaun and Seattle had that season. The Bills running game against good defenses could not perform with any kind of consistency inside the 30 yard line offering little or no support to a young QB, but keep up your bs narrative...
jrober38 Posted January 15, 2020 Posted January 15, 2020 2 minutes ago, thebandit27 said: So perhaps “literally the worst” was a poor choice of words? No, he literally had the worst completion percentage in the NFL among starting QBs. If you break it down by team (I can't find any stats for when the drops occurred and who the QB was), the Bills improve to 29th in the NFL in adjusted completion percentage. If you want to celebrate 29th in the NFL as some sort of sign Josh's accuracy isn't an issue relative to his peers, I don't know what to tell you. 29th in the league is horrible anyway you slice it. 1
Hapless Bills Fan Posted January 15, 2020 Posted January 15, 2020 16 minutes ago, jrober38 said: The Bills were 8th in the NFL in rush yards this year at 128 yards a game. The Seahawks were 4th in 2013 at 136 yards a game. Not exactly a big difference. So in the OP's comparison, Russ Wilson's 63.1% completion vs Allen's 58.8% completion is 4.3% better, his passing yards (not adjusting for Jets game 2 series) are 8.1% better, and that's described as Russ Wilson being "10-20% better in all categories" But a 6% difference in rush YPG is "not exactly a big difference"? Merrily we roll along.... 1 1
Pine Barrens Mafia Posted January 15, 2020 Posted January 15, 2020 5 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said: So in the OP's comparison, Russ Wilson's 63.1% completion vs Allen's 58.8% completion is 4.3% better, his passing yards (not adjusting for Jets game 2 series) are 8.1% better, and that's described as Russ Wilson being "10-20% better in all categories" But a 6% difference in rush YPG is "not exactly a big difference"? Merrily we roll along.... Math is hard.
jrober38 Posted January 15, 2020 Posted January 15, 2020 (edited) 19 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said: So in the OP's comparison, Russ Wilson's 63.1% completion vs Allen's 58.8% completion is 4.3% better, his passing yards (not adjusting for Jets game 2 series) are 8.1% better, and that's described as Russ Wilson being "10-20% better in all categories" But a 6% difference in rush YPG is "not exactly a big difference"? Merrily we roll along.... 13 minutes ago, Joe in Winslow said: Math is hard. The Seahawks rushed for 6.25% more yards per game than we did, 2013 vs 2019. Wilson's completion percentage was 4.3 points better which is 7.3% better. His QB Rating was 18% better. His QBR was 45% better. His TD% was 49% better. His YPA was 22% better. But yeah, they were similar. Totally. Edited January 15, 2020 by jrober38 1
K-9 Posted January 15, 2020 Posted January 15, 2020 5 minutes ago, jrober38 said: The Seahawks rushed for 6.25% more yards per game than we did, 2013 vs 2019. Wilson's completion percentage wasn't 4.3 points better which is 7.3% better. His QB Rating was 18% better. His QBR was 45% better. His TD% was 49% better. His YPA was 22% better. But yeah, they were similar. Totally. Your nearly two year long anti-Allen screed has grown way beyond tiresome, so why don’t we just cut to the chase: what is the point behind your crusade? That Allen sucks and will never be any good? Fine. Why don’t you just state that emphatically instead of polluting thread after thread after thread with your bullcrap and move along? 1 1
thebandit27 Posted January 15, 2020 Posted January 15, 2020 20 minutes ago, jrober38 said: No, he literally had the worst completion percentage in the NFL among starting QBs. If you break it down by team (I can't find any stats for when the drops occurred and who the QB was), the Bills improve to 29th in the NFL in adjusted completion percentage. If you want to celebrate 29th in the NFL as some sort of sign Josh's accuracy isn't an issue relative to his peers, I don't know what to tell you. 29th in the league is horrible anyway you slice it. Ah yes, pointing out yet another in an incredibly long list of inaccuracies is celebrating the performance. Now I know this is an extremely sensitive subject for you, but even if you don’t like it, context matters. When you say that the two players performances were nothing alike, it once again shows a total unwillingness to acknowledge anything that doesn’t 100% support your pre draft narrative. Why be that way? It’s totally reasonable to say that Josh still has work to do regarding precision passing. It’s also totally reasonable to acknowledge that he’s gotten much better and shows plenty of signs that he can continue to do so. Why you’re so reluctant to budge even slightly on the subject is truly confounding.
K-9 Posted January 15, 2020 Posted January 15, 2020 2 minutes ago, thebandit27 said: Ah yes, pointing out yet another in an incredibly long list of inaccuracies is celebrating the performance. Now I know this is an extremely sensitive subject for you, but even if you don’t like it, context matters. When you say that the two players performances were nothing alike, it once again shows a total unwillingness to acknowledge anything that doesn’t 100% support your pre draft narrative. Why be that way? It’s totally reasonable to say that Josh still has work to do regarding precision passing. It’s also totally reasonable to acknowledge that he’s gotten much better and shows plenty of signs that he can continue to do so. Why you’re so reluctant to budge even slightly on the subject is truly confounding. Not confounding at all. He’s on a two year crusade and crusaders must be 100% correct on all things all the time in order to justify the crusade. It’s what zealots do. 1
Hapless Bills Fan Posted January 15, 2020 Posted January 15, 2020 1 hour ago, jrober38 said: Wilson's completion percentage was 4.3 points better which is 7.3% better. A percentage is a percentage. 4.3% better. 63.1% - 58.8% = 4.3% I don't think taking a ratio of two percentages is appropriate. But even if you wish to make a mathematical argument for it, we still get to the claim that 7.3% difference in the ratio of completion percentage is significantly better, but 6.25% difference in rush yards is not much different. 1
LOVEMESOMEBILLS Posted January 15, 2020 Posted January 15, 2020 1 hour ago, jrober38 said: The Seahawks rushed for 6.25% more yards per game than we did, 2013 vs 2019. Wilson's completion percentage was 4.3 points better which is 7.3% better. His QB Rating was 18% better. His QBR was 45% better. His TD% was 49% better. His YPA was 22% better. But yeah, they were similar. Totally. What you failed to mention is the total yards per game are very close. In 2013 had Seattle - 339.0, this year the Bills had 330.2, an 8.8 yard difference. In 2013 Seattle averaged 136.8 yards rushing a game, this year the Bills averaged 128.4 yards, a 8.4 yard difference. You're going through all this trouble for a net gain of .4 yards passing a game? Seattle's defense was not only good, they had play makers, fielding 3 First Team ALL-Pros. Seattle led the NFL(By a good margin) with 28 INTs & had 18 Fumble Recoveries for a total of 46 takeaways. The Bills this year had 14 INTs & 9 Fumble Recoveries for a total of 23 takeaways. That year Seattle's defense cause twice the turnovers as the Bills defense this year and they returned 4 of those for TDs. Seems that Seattle's defense did a better job at getting big plays and setting the offense up with good field position & scored some points in the process.
Billl Posted January 15, 2020 Posted January 15, 2020 He went from 32rd in QB rating (25th in QBR) in 2018 to 24th in QB rating (25th in QBR) in 2019. That's an improvement sort of. For comparison, Wilson was 4th/3rd as a rookie and 7th/7th as a sophomore. For more context, Matt Cassel was 24th in rating and 25th in QBR Wilson's second season. The top 30 was rounded out by Kellen Clemens, Case Keenum, Christian Ponder, EJ Manuel, and Jason Campbell. Not sure any of those guys' careers would win a Russell Wilson look alike contest.
Pine Barrens Mafia Posted January 15, 2020 Posted January 15, 2020 16 minutes ago, Bangarang said: This thread is bananas And you're just the guy to straighten this madness out, amirite? :
Hapless Bills Fan Posted January 15, 2020 Posted January 15, 2020 23 minutes ago, Billl said: He went from 32rd in QB rating (25th in QBR) in 2018 to 24th in QB rating (25th in QBR) in 2019. That's an improvement sort of. By QB rating do you mean "passer rating"? Passer rating isn't a bad predictor and an improvement from 67.9 to 85.3 is significant. ESPN's Total QBR OTOH is a weird duck of a stat, and this is Exhibit "Z" of why that's so. Allen's QBR dropped from 49.8 to 45.8 this year. A lot of things improved - even the critics admit this - completion %, YPG (205.9 if adjusted for only playing 2 series in Game 16), Passing TD from 10 to 20 (3.1% to 4.3%), INT down from 12 to 9 (3.8% to 2.0%), double the number of 4Q comebacks, 2 more game winning drives....and yet this Total QBR thing DROPPED. Yeah.
Billl Posted January 15, 2020 Posted January 15, 2020 57 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said: By QB rating do you mean "passer rating"? Passer rating isn't a bad predictor and an improvement from 67.9 to 85.3 is significant. ESPN's Total QBR OTOH is a weird duck of a stat, and this is Exhibit "Z" of why that's so. Allen's QBR dropped from 49.8 to 45.8 this year. A lot of things improved - even the critics admit this - completion %, YPG (205.9 if adjusted for only playing 2 series in Game 16), Passing TD from 10 to 20 (3.1% to 4.3%), INT down from 12 to 9 (3.8% to 2.0%), double the number of 4Q comebacks, 2 more game winning drives....and yet this Total QBR thing DROPPED. Yeah. So it's just a bad stat when referencing Josh Allen? Because the top five this year were: Lamar Jackson Patrick Mahomes Drew Brees Dak Prescott Russell Wilson That might not be perfect, but it looks pretty close from where I'm sitting. The bottom 5 are: Mason Rudolph Kyle Allen Mitch Trubisky Andy Dalton Gardner Minshew Want to argue that those guys don't belong at the bottom? Well immediately ahead of them are Darnold and Allen. Put it another way. I'll list Josh Alen's QBR/rating from two games this year. One will be the first Patriots game. The other will be from the Cowboys game. If people can't figure out which is which, I'll agree that it's a flawed metric. 82.5/120.7 vs. 12.5/24.0 Which do you suppose was which?
DRA3196 Posted January 15, 2020 Posted January 15, 2020 5 hours ago, eball said: I'm tired of all of the comparisons between Josh and this QB or that QB. I know what my eyes have seen, and this kid not only has the "it" factor, he's also obsessively committed to making himself better and becoming great. Next season's jump will be even bigger than this season's progression, and I have no doubt Beane is going to find more weapons to put around him. If Josh stays healthy he will wind up obliterating every Buffalo Bills QB record in the book. I believe you are spot on about Josh and can't wait to see what talent Beane brings in over the next few months to help the kid out.
warrior9 Posted January 15, 2020 Author Posted January 15, 2020 2 minutes ago, Billl said: So it's just a bad stat when referencing Josh Allen? Because the top five this year were: Lamar Jackson Patrick Mahomes Drew Brees Dak Prescott Russell Wilson That might not be perfect, but it looks pretty close from where I'm sitting. The bottom 5 are: Mason Rudolph Kyle Allen Mitch Trubisky Andy Dalton Gardner Minshew Want to argue that those guys don't belong at the bottom? Well immediately ahead of them are Darnold and Allen. Put it another way. I'll list Josh Alen's QBR/rating from two games this year. One will be the first Patriots game. The other will be from the Cowboys game. If people can't figure out which is which, I'll agree that it's a flawed metric. 82.5/120.7 vs. 12.5/24.0 Which do you suppose was which? Now can we compare supporting casts? 1
Billl Posted January 15, 2020 Posted January 15, 2020 1 minute ago, warrior9 said: Now can we compare supporting casts? You need to compare casts to figure out which of those groups of QBs is better?
warrior9 Posted January 15, 2020 Author Posted January 15, 2020 1 minute ago, Billl said: You need to compare casts to figure out which of those groups of QBs is better? Didn't say that... It doesn't hurt to be surrounded by talent, though. So you think JA is a bottom 7 QB in the NFL because of Passer Rating? is that what i'm gathering?
Chicken Boo Posted January 15, 2020 Posted January 15, 2020 6 hours ago, warrior9 said: Golden Tate and Doug Baldwin would be #1 and 2 on this team. Zach Miller would be our starting TE. 8 in the box would make throwing easier, which is my point. You are thinking of absolute prime versions of each receiver. Baldwin was still developing and Tate was about as good as John Brown is now, without the speed. Russ had a QB rating of 101 while Josh is at 85. No, a QB rating isn't an exact science, but anything sub-90 isn't good enough by today's standards. 1
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