Josh Allen vs. Russel Wilson Year 2

[Bangarang]

17 minutes ago, SCBills said:

 

You have eyes... you watch games.  Who does Josh's game look more like?..   The running, big play ability game of RW or the check down, timid game of Mariota?

Oh geez, based on your wording, I wonder which answer you want to hear. 

15 minutes ago, warrior9 said:

Thanks, I was going to ignore that. 

Why ignore it? Because it doesn’t agree with the agenda here?

Edited January 15, 2020 by Bangarang

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

6 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

Eh this is kind of revisionist history. There was legitimate skepticism of Russell Wilson's 2nd year, on whether he was actually good or just a product of an outstanding defense and running game. Certainly no one was predicting he would be a top 5 QB for most of his career.

This is true and if he plateaued where he was, as narrative goes about year 2, it may have turned out right. 
 

however, I’m not so sure he’s plateaued yet, even now... and he was deservedly in the mvp conversation much of the year. 

[Billl]

51 minutes ago, matter2003 said:

If Allen had even around the league average in drops he would be about 61.5% completion percentage...that makes me feel a little better but on the flip side, some of the drops happened because of poor ball placement which made the catches more difficult than they should have been.

Cole Beasley caught 75% of his 87 targets in 2018.  He caught 63% of his 106 targets in 2019.  Same guy.  What changed?

Edited January 15, 2020 by Billl

[Mango]

19 minutes ago, warrior9 said:

Russel Wilson MAY have got help from a great offensive line, better weapons, one of the best defenses of our generation and ....... Marshawn Lynch?

 

Maybe that's a reach, though?

 

You are right, he did get help from a bunch of those things. I think Brown and Beasley are WR 2 and 3 on that roster. You have to look at who those Seattle WR's were not who they became later on. 

 

And given all of those things, RW still did more. Hence the adjusted passer rating where Russ actually gets a much higher lift than Josh does. They are not similar players.

 

They aren't similar passers. Russ throws with much more touch, anticipation, and consistency than Josh who throws most throws on a rope with much more force, and does so much more inconsistency.  Lets not even get into mechanics....

 

They don't have similar running styles. Russ is elusive and does a good job of protecting himself. Josh runs with power and aggression, at times seems like he searches out contact.  

 

This doesn't mean Josh sucks, but I don't think there has been anybody on here who as agreed with your argument that they are "identical". People have agreed Josh's weapons failed him at times, his trajectory seems good, etc. But their congruence, nah. 

[SCBills]

2 minutes ago, Billl said:

Cole Beasley caught 75% of his 87 targets in 2018.  He caught 63% in 2019.  Same guy.  What changed?

 

That's actually an interesting stat..  Off the top of my head, he was playing outside instead of half his games in a dome, combined with increased velocity of Allen compared to Dak.

[JESSEFEFFER]

17 minutes ago, SCBills said:

 

I think Josh is legit.  I expect big things out of him in Year 3 and beyond, provided our Front Office does what we all expect them to do this offseason. 

 

That being said, it's a two way street.. 

 

We beat the Ravens and potentially have a bye/division-champs, if Josh hits any of his multiple open deep balls where our guys burned the Ravens press coverage.  That was a game we lost due to Josh Allen.

 

Conversely, we beat Houston in the Playoffs if anyone makes a play for him.  Nobody did anything out of the extremely ordinary that day, aside from Josh Allen, who gets killed for his meltdown, but those same people forget that he threw for 250+, ran for 90+ and caught a TD.  Houston, with a mediocre-at-best secondary locked down our receivers, and Duke 2x, Brown 1x, both failed to convert plays that we saw made routinely for every other QB in these playoffs. 

 

If Duke makes that TD catch.  If Duke holds onto that sideline pass.  If Brown catches the sideline throw.  If anyone makes a block in OT.    If ANY of those things happen, we win and Josh either would have thrown for 300 or ran for over 100. 

 

I expect Josh to learn from this year, grow from this year, and I expect him to have guys next year that make plays for him.   Those things should lead to a break out year for Allen.

 

 

Ravens game had bad drops by Knox, Beasley and Singletary.  Generally, offenses struggled in an open air stadium located in the Great Lakes region during November and December weather conditions.  Reputations credit the Bills D and blame Josh's accuracy.

[Bookie Man]

I feel like he really became DangeRUSS in his 4th year. 4 out of next 5 season 30+ passing touchdowns. Wilson has the prettiest deep ball in the NFL imo. 

[JaCrispy]

37 minutes ago, Bangarang said:

These comparisons are dumb and meaningless. 
 

Why pick Russell Wilson and not Marcus Mariota who also had similar stats as a 2nd year starter? Is it because It’s better to associate Allen with someone who is universally regarded as a good QB opposed to one who isn’t? 

well, you want your QB to be a top talent, so I would rather see a comparison against an elite QB at a similar stage in their career rather than a guy who was benched....

[Patrick Duffy]

41 minutes ago, Bangarang said:

These comparisons are dumb and meaningless. 
 

Why pick Russell Wilson and not Marcus Mariota who also had similar stats as a 2nd year starter? Is it because It’s better to associate Allen with someone who is universally regarded as a good QB opposed to one who isn’t? 

Yes

[Hapless Bills Fan]

47 minutes ago, Buffalo Junction said:

No he wasn’t. Tate aside, the rest of those guys were late round picks and UDFAs on rookie deals. They developed with Wilson and made plays, but a lot of that had to do with Wilson throwing perfect balls and scrambling to give them time to get off coverage. Not to mention 8 man boxes to stop Lynch. 

 

I wouldn't go that far.  Wilson's rookie year, Zach Miller was a former 2nd round pick who had been solid with Oakland, and was in his 2nd year in Bevell's offense Wilson's rookie year.  He was a solid 65% catch, 45 ypg guy with Oakland.  He was a reliable 72%, 25 ypg outlet for Wilson his rookie season.  Marshawn Lynch is underrated for his hands and also a 77% catch guy.  Sidney Rice was a 2nd round pick for Minn.  who had a great 3rd year for Minn then struggled with injuries for a couple season before having a rennaissance for Wilson his rookie season.  Golden Tate as you note, was a 3rd year vet, former 2nd round pick and reliable home grown target.   Doug Baldwin is the guy who fits your profile.

 

The point is, Wilson's WR cast wasn't all-star, but it's a lot better talent and far more proven than your description of "late round picks and UDFA on rookie deals" makes them sound.

 

Interestingly, we really did try to do that for Allen here with Zay Jones (he'd be our Golden Tate attempt) and Kelvin Benjamin (he'd be our Sidney Rice attempt).  Kroft is a low-rent never-quite-that version of Zach Miller.    The somewhat scary (to me) thing is that so many of our shots on goal didn't work out.  Something is amiss somewhere.

[warrior9]

12 minutes ago, Mango said:

 

You are right, he did get help from a bunch of those things. I think Brown and Beasley are WR 2 and 3 on that roster. You have to look at who those Seattle WR's were not who they became later on. 

 

And given all of those things, RW still did more. Hence the adjusted passer rating where Russ actually gets a much higher lift than Josh does. They are not similar players.

 

They aren't similar passers. Russ throws with much more touch, anticipation, and consistency than Josh who throws most throws on a rope with much more force, and does so much more inconsistency.  Lets not even get into mechanics....

 

They don't have similar running styles. Russ is elusive and does a good job of protecting himself. Josh runs with power and aggression, at times seems like he searches out contact.  

 

This doesn't mean Josh sucks, but I don't think there has been anybody on here who as agreed with your argument that they are "identical". People have agreed Josh's weapons failed him at times, his trajectory seems good, etc. But their congruence, nah. 

Baldwin and Tate 1000% start over Brown and Bease. They’ll have their time on the field but those two would probably be 1 and 2. I think ultimately brown and Baldwin would split #2 reps
 

in terms of throwing style. The point is trajectory. Was RW throwing with that much anticipation etc in his second year? Again, he is also 2 years older than Josh in his second year. I posted this because it’s refreshing to know that if we’re patient and let this guy learn and get him some weapons, he can be a stud. 
 

they aren’t similar running styles, obviously. They both scramble and make plays off of that... it’s a huge part of both of their games. There is a lot of similarities in how they’re successful. 
 

if JA had Marshawn and that line, what could he have done? Obviously we’ll never know but it’s fun to speculate. I think Josh has very very good numbers with an improved line and RB next year. 

Edited January 15, 2020 by warrior9

[Hapless Bills Fan]

2 minutes ago, JaCrispy said:

well, you want your QB to be a top talent, so I would rather see a comparison against an elite QB at a similar stage in their career rather than a guy who was benched....

 

This comparison highlights the great unknown at this point.

 

I could probably pick about 8 QB who had similar 2nd playing seasons over the last couple decades.  About 3 panned out and became good or even great QB.  5 did not progress and fell by the wayside.

 

Fundamentally, we all just have to wait to see which category Allen winds up in.

 

And while we're waiting, hope that Beane gets his act together and realizes we simply can't generate enough offense with the talent he's given it.  We need something - a bruising OL, a great TE, a bruising RB, a true #1 WR - not all of the above, perhaps, but say 2 of the 4.

 

 

[SCBills]

18 minutes ago, JESSEFEFFER said:

Ravens game had bad drops by Knox, Beasley and Singletary.  Generally, offenses struggled in an open air stadium located in the Great Lakes region during November and December weather conditions.  Reputations credit the Bills D and blame Josh's accuracy.

 

Not gonna lie... this season has me really open to building a Dome.  It was really frustrating hearing about wind every game, and then being unable to attack Philly's weakness as they destroyed us on the ground and in the short passing game.

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

1 hour ago, Bangarang said:

These comparisons are dumb and meaningless. 
 

Why pick Russell Wilson and not Marcus Mariota who also had similar stats as a 2nd year starter? Is it because It’s better to associate Allen with someone who is universally regarded as a good QB opposed to one who isn’t? 

 

Because, and stick with me here, it's VERY LIKELY Josh turns out to have that kind of ceiling. Wilson, I mean.

 

Much as MANY around here would like to debate that, it's kind of plain for everyone who doesn't have an inherent bias to see.

 

[machine gun kelly]

Thanks for the info.  RW is awesome, and his team has evolved over time.  I believe JA will get there with more weapons and protection and continuing that development of our own Legion of Boom.  If I were pressed to pick, I’d pick RW, or Mahomes over Josh which is not a negative on Josh, but how exceptional those two QBS are and we could have had them,.  Water under the bridge as we don’t.

[jrober38]

Their numbers passing aren't even remotely similar.

[thebandit27]

1 hour ago, Billl said:

Cole Beasley caught 75% of his 87 targets in 2018.  He caught 63% of his 106 targets in 2019.  Same guy.  What changed?

His drop rate. Just click on “advanced rushing and receiving” on the very same PFR page and you’d know that his drop rate went from 1.1% to 5.7%.

 

Now compare yardage and TDs to previous years 

Edited January 15, 2020 by thebandit27

[warrior9]

5 minutes ago, jrober38 said:

Their numbers passing aren't even remotely similar.

?

[thebandit27]

4 minutes ago, jrober38 said:

Their numbers passing aren't even remotely similar.

But how does Wilson compare to Taysom Hill, who in your opinion is an upgrade over not only Allen, but also Drew Brees ? 

[Bangarang]

15 minutes ago, Joe in Winslow said:

 

Because, and stick with me here, it's VERY LIKELY Josh turns out to have that kind of ceiling. Wilson, I mean.

We already knew Josh’s ceiling was incredibly high. What we don’t know is if he will have the same progression and success as Wilson. This comparison seems to suggest that he will which I clearly think is flawed logic.

 

15 minutes ago, Joe in Winslow said:

 

Much as MANY around here would like to debate that, it's kind of plain for everyone who doesn't have an inherent bias to see.

 

 

What’s the bias you’re referring to?