Hapless Bills Fan Posted January 15, 2020 Posted January 15, 2020 31 minutes ago, warrior9 said: I saw a thread that compared Josh to all second round QB's in the last 15 years or so but I wanted to focus on Russel Wilson because I think they have some similarities and I think Russel Wilson is a gamer and an elite QB. Both are considered mobile passers. Both had great defenses. I think this bodes well for us because Josh is also 2 years younger than RW was in his second year. What's interesting: They both had a ton of fumbles. Almost identical # of total TD's, yards, INTs, and both relied on the defense quite a bit. Josh took less sacks but had ~5% lower completion percentage. Josh in year 2: Passing: Year Age Tm Pos No. G GS QBrec Cmp Att Cmp% Yds TD TD% Int Int% 1D Lng Y/A AY/A Y/C Y/G Rate QBR Sk Yds NY/A ANY/A Sk% 4QC GWD AV 2019 23 BUF QB 17 16 16 10-6-0 271 461 58.8 3089 20 4.3 9 2.0 146 53 6.7 6.7 11.4 193.1 85.3 45.8 38 237 5.72 5.71 7.6 4 5 11 Rushing: Year Age Tm Pos No. G GS Rush Yds TD 1D Lng Y/A Y/G A/G Tgt Rec Yds Y/R TD 1D Lng R/G Y/G Ctch% Y/Tgt Touch Y/Tch YScm RRTD Fmb 2019 23 BUF QB 17 16 16 109 510 9 42 36 4.7 31.9 6.8 109 4.7 510 9 14 RW year 2: Passing: Year Age Tm Pos No. G GS QBrec Cmp Att Cmp% Yds TD TD% Int Int% 1D Lng Y/A AY/A Y/C Y/G Rate QBR Sk Yds NY/A ANY/A Sk% 4QC GWD AV 2013* 25 SEA QB 3 16 16 13-3-0 257 407 63.1 3357 26 6.4 9 2.2 157 80 8.2 8.5 13.1 209.8 101.2 66.8 44 272 6.84 7.10 9.8 3 4 16 Rushing: Year Age Tm Pos No. G GS Rush Yds TD 1D Lng Y/A Y/G A/G Tgt Rec Yds Y/R TD 1D Lng R/G Y/G Ctch% Y/Tgt Touch Y/Tch YScm RRTD Fmb 2013* 25 SEA QB 3 16 16 96 539 1 31 27 5.6 33.7 6.0 96 5.6 539 1 12 That year, Russel Wilson went to the Pro Bowl. The national narrative is Josh is not a good QB. He had the second most drops in the NFL, he had a rookie TE and RB, and an underwhelming receiving core (although, I do love what Smoke brings). Russel WIlson has Golden Tate, Marshawn Lynch, Doug Baldwin, Jermaine Kerse (eh), and Zach Miller. --I think this can shed some positive light on Josh's future potential. It excites me to know he's in good company and I'm excited to see what he can do with some more weapons! You omit probably the most significant difference between the two teams: the rush game, supported by a top-notch mauling OL. Marshawn Lynch had a dominant, 1200+ yd season the year before Wilson was drafted (2011) under new OC Darrell Bevell. Lynch had an unreal, 1500+ yd season Wilson's rookie year, another 1200+ yd season Wilson's second year, and a 1300+ yd season his 3rd year. Seattle had a dominant, top-notch OL featuring 3 1st round picks, a 2nd round and a 3rd round pick. 6 1 1
Mr. WEO Posted January 15, 2020 Posted January 15, 2020 5 minutes ago, eball said: I'm tired of all of the comparisons between Josh and this QB or that QB. I know what my eyes have seen, and this kid not only has the "it" factor, he's also obsessively committed to making himself better and becoming great. Next season's jump will be even bigger than this season's progression, and I have no doubt Beane is going to find more weapons to put around him. If Josh stays healthy he will wind up obliterating every Buffalo Bills QB record in the book. I agree. What is the point of this thread? RW and JA are not as similar in their play as the OP wants to believe. What does the comparison accomplish? Allen is doing just fine. He's not Russell Wilson and that's OK too. 2 1
eball Posted January 15, 2020 Posted January 15, 2020 (edited) 3 minutes ago, warrior9 said: I do not disagree in the slightest. I'm doing this to further prove that I believe we have our guy. I don't think many people do(or could have done) more with less than Josh did. My post was not a critique of your topic, just my overall feelings on the subject. Edited January 15, 2020 by eball
warrior9 Posted January 15, 2020 Author Posted January 15, 2020 Just now, Mr. WEO said: I agree. What is the point of this thread? RW and JA are not as similar in their play as the OP wants to believe. What does the comparison accomplish? Allen is doing just fine. He's not Russell Wilson and that's OK too. I think i'm trying to prove that they are literally comparable in their style of play... especially at that point in their career.
Bangarang Posted January 15, 2020 Posted January 15, 2020 These comparisons are dumb and meaningless. Why pick Russell Wilson and not Marcus Mariota who also had similar stats as a 2nd year starter? Is it because It’s better to associate Allen with someone who is universally regarded as a good QB opposed to one who isn’t? 1 1 1 1
warrior9 Posted January 15, 2020 Author Posted January 15, 2020 Just now, Bangarang said: These comparisons are dumb and meaningless. Why pick Russell Wilson and not Marcus Mariota who also had similar stats as a 2nd year starter? Is it because It’s better to associate Allen with someone who is universally regarded as a good QB opposed to one who isn’t? Ummmm because we have a QB that has similar if not identical stats to a QB that is currently a top 3 NFL QB and people think Josh isn't the guy. Developmentally we have a QB that seems to be on track for the first time in a decade plus. 3 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said: You omit probably the most significant difference between the two teams: the rush game, supported by a top-notch mauling OL. Marshawn Lynch had a dominant, 1200+ yd season the year before Wilson was drafted (2011) under new OC Darrell Bevell. Lynch had an unreal, 1500+ yd season Wilson's rookie year, another 1200+ yd season Wilson's second year, and a 1300+ yd season his 3rd year. Seattle had a dominant, top-notch OL featuring 3 1st round picks, a 2nd round and a 3rd round pick. SHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH stop it.
Mango Posted January 15, 2020 Posted January 15, 2020 21 minutes ago, warrior9 said: I saw a thread that compared Josh to all second round QB's in the last 15 years or so but I wanted to focus on Russel Wilson because I think they have some similarities and I think Russel Wilson is a gamer and an elite QB. Both are considered mobile passers. Both had great defenses. I think this bodes well for us because Josh is also 2 years younger than RW was in his second year. What's interesting: They both had a ton of fumbles. Almost identical # of total TD's, yards, INTs, and both relied on the defense quite a bit. Josh took less sacks but had ~5% lower completion percentage. Josh in year 2: Passing: Year Age Tm Pos No. G GS QBrec Cmp Att Cmp% Yds TD TD% Int Int% 1D Lng Y/A AY/A Y/C Y/G Rate QBR Sk Yds NY/A ANY/A Sk% 4QC GWD AV 2019 23 BUF QB 17 16 16 10-6-0 271 461 58.8 3089 20 4.3 9 2.0 146 53 6.7 6.7 11.4 193.1 85.3 45.8 38 237 5.72 5.71 7.6 4 5 11 Rushing: Year Age Tm Pos No. G GS Rush Yds TD 1D Lng Y/A Y/G A/G Tgt Rec Yds Y/R TD 1D Lng R/G Y/G Ctch% Y/Tgt Touch Y/Tch YScm RRTD Fmb 2019 23 BUF QB 17 16 16 109 510 9 42 36 4.7 31.9 6.8 109 4.7 510 9 14 RW year 2: Passing: Year Age Tm Pos No. G GS QBrec Cmp Att Cmp% Yds TD TD% Int Int% 1D Lng Y/A AY/A Y/C Y/G Rate QBR Sk Yds NY/A ANY/A Sk% 4QC GWD AV 2013* 25 SEA QB 3 16 16 13-3-0 257 407 63.1 3357 26 6.4 9 2.2 157 80 8.2 8.5 13.1 209.8 101.2 66.8 44 272 6.84 7.10 9.8 3 4 16 Rushing: Year Age Tm Pos No. G GS Rush Yds TD 1D Lng Y/A Y/G A/G Tgt Rec Yds Y/R TD 1D Lng R/G Y/G Ctch% Y/Tgt Touch Y/Tch YScm RRTD Fmb 2013* 25 SEA QB 3 16 16 96 539 1 31 27 5.6 33.7 6.0 96 5.6 539 1 12 That year, Russel Wilson went to the Pro Bowl. The national narrative is Josh is not a good QB. He had the second most drops in the NFL, he had a rookie TE and RB, and an underwhelming receiving core (although, I do love what Smoke brings). Russel WIlson has Golden Tate, Marshawn Lynch, Doug Baldwin, Jermaine Kerse (eh), and Zach Miller. --I think this can shed some positive light on Josh's future potential. It excites me to know he's in good company and I'm excited to see what he can do with some more weapons! Going of pure stats, Russ was a better passer in nearly every single metric. Won more games, better completion %, more TD passes, higher TD %, more first downs, higher first down %, more first downs on less passing attempts, one less game winning drive and 4th quarter comeback. In terms of rushing, he had less rushing TD's, but had more yards per carry and more yards and less carries. I couldn't find 2013 drop rate or frequency by team. The closes I could get was adjusted passer rating. Adjusted passing actually favors Wilson WAAAYYY more than Josh. Josh- 91(+6 pts) Russ- 119 (+23 pts) Call me crazy but maybe, just maybe, these things are the reason he was voted to the Pro Bowl....now bare with me here, and this is a reach, those things could also be part of the reason they also won 3 more games than Buffalo. Josh Allen is not nearly as good as Russell Wilson's 2nd year currently. It is what it is. Doesn't mean he is a failure or a bust. 2 2
Mr. WEO Posted January 15, 2020 Posted January 15, 2020 4 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said: You omit probably the most significant difference between the two teams: the rush game, supported by a top-notch mauling OL. Marshawn Lynch had a dominant, 1200+ yd season the year before Wilson was drafted (2011) under new OC Darrell Bevell. Lynch had an unreal, 1500+ yd season Wilson's rookie year, another 1200+ yd season Wilson's second year, and a 1300+ yd season his 3rd year. Seattle had a dominant, top-notch OL featuring 3 1st round picks, a 2nd round and a 3rd round pick. He's played a lot of years behind some bad O-lines...
DCOrange Posted January 15, 2020 Posted January 15, 2020 18 minutes ago, warrior9 said: So Russel's 12 fumbles pass the eye test but Josh's 14 are worrisome? Russel was throwing to a much more well rounded group of receivers as well. As great as Smoke was this year, it's still his 3rd team in 3 years (or 4). The drops of our receivers sky rocket Josh's completion percentage two. I did the math and it came out that even if our receivers caught half of the drops, he's at 61% completion percentage. Fumbles =/= eye test. But to the point, I think people generally exaggerate Allen's accuracy issues (with the exception of his deep ball which is objectively horrific), but he's still nowhere near Russell Wilson in that regard. I also think the process that Wilson follows on a play to play basis has pretty much always been much smoother than what we've gotten from Allen to this point. He generally read defenses much faster and better than Allen currently does. And Allen did a good job of cutting down on his turnovers this season, but he still has too many "wtf was that?" decisions that Wilson generally has stayed away from. And from a metrics point of view, I think those issues are borne out by their respective QBRs and PFF grades as well as their team stats. Wilson graded out as elite per PFF and #8 in QBR versus Allen as average per PFF and #24 in QBR. The Seahawks offense was #7 in points per drive that year and their pass offense was #6 in NY/A, #10 in passing TDs, and #3 for fewest INTs. The Bills were #24 in points per drive, #21 in NY/A, #24 in passing TDs, and #15 in INTs. Again, just to reiterate, I'm happy with Allen's progress so far and I'm high on him in general. But it's not a diss to say he's behind where Wilson was as a sophomore; that's just the truth and Wilson is an extremely high bar to be comparing to. 1
warrior9 Posted January 15, 2020 Author Posted January 15, 2020 (edited) 6 minutes ago, Mango said: Going of pure stats, Russ was a better passer in nearly every single metric. Won more games, better completion %, more TD passes, higher TD %, more first downs, higher first down %, more first downs on less passing attempts, one less game winning drive and 4th quarter comeback. In terms of rushing, he had less rushing TD's, but had more yards per carry and more yards and less carries. I couldn't find 2013 drop rate or frequency by team. The closes I could get was adjusted passer rating. Adjusted passing actually favors Wilson WAAAYYY more than Josh. Josh- 91(+6 pts) Russ- 119 (+23 pts) Call me crazy but maybe, just maybe, these things are the reason he was voted to the Pro Bowl....now bare with me here, and this is a reach, those things could also be part of the reason they also won 3 more games than Buffalo. Josh Allen is not nearly as good as Russell Wilson's 2nd year currently. It is what it is. Doesn't mean he is a failure or a bust. Russel Wilson MAY have got help from a great offensive line, better weapons, one of the best defenses of our generation and ....... Marshawn Lynch? Maybe that's a reach, though? Edited January 15, 2020 by warrior9
Mr. WEO Posted January 15, 2020 Posted January 15, 2020 1 minute ago, warrior9 said: Ummmm because we have a QB that has similar if not identical stats to a QB that is currently a top 3 NFL QB and people think Josh isn't the guy. Developmentally we have a QB that seems to be on track for the first time in a decade plus. SHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH stop it. This is like the Duke Williams is comparable to Anquon Boldin thread because they had a similar combine broad jump... 2
warrior9 Posted January 15, 2020 Author Posted January 15, 2020 (edited) 3 minutes ago, DCOrange said: Fumbles =/= eye test. But to the point, I think people generally exaggerate Allen's accuracy issues (with the exception of his deep ball which is objectively horrific), but he's still nowhere near Russell Wilson in that regard. I also think the process that Wilson follows on a play to play basis has pretty much always been much smoother than what we've gotten from Allen to this point. He generally read defenses much faster and better than Allen currently does. And Allen did a good job of cutting down on his turnovers this season, but he still has too many "wtf was that?" decisions that Wilson generally has stayed away from. And from a metrics point of view, I think those issues are borne out by their respective QBRs and PFF grades as well as their team stats. Wilson graded out as elite per PFF and #8 in QBR versus Allen as average per PFF and #24 in QBR. The Seahawks offense was #7 in points per drive that year and their pass offense was #6 in NY/A, #10 in passing TDs, and #3 for fewest INTs. The Bills were #24 in points per drive, #21 in NY/A, #24 in passing TDs, and #15 in INTs. Again, just to reiterate, I'm happy with Allen's progress so far and I'm high on him in general. But it's not a diss to say he's behind where Wilson was as a sophomore; that's just the truth and Wilson is an extremely high bar to be comparing to. I honestly don't think league rankings here mean anything.... leaders vary from year to year as does the field. I'm saying in pure stats, they aren't far off...... that's literally all i'm saying. And RW had quite a bit more help. 1 minute ago, Mr. WEO said: This is like the Duke Williams is comparable to Anquon Boldin thread because they had a similar combine broad jump... literally not even close.... there's a full season of stats that are very comparable, not someones ability to jump in shorts. Edited January 15, 2020 by warrior9
SCBills Posted January 15, 2020 Posted January 15, 2020 (edited) 15 minutes ago, warrior9 said: I do not disagree in the slightest. I'm doing this to further prove that I believe we have our guy. I don't think many people do(or could have done) more with less than Josh did. I think Josh is legit. I expect big things out of him in Year 3 and beyond, provided our Front Office does what we all expect them to do this offseason. That being said, it's a two way street.. We beat the Ravens and potentially have a bye/division-champs, if Josh hits any of his multiple open deep balls where our guys burned the Ravens press coverage. That was a game we lost due to Josh Allen. Conversely, we beat Houston in the Playoffs if anyone makes a play for him. Nobody did anything out of the extremely ordinary that day, aside from Josh Allen, who gets killed for his meltdown, but those same people forget that he threw for 250+, ran for 90+ and caught a TD. Houston, with a mediocre-at-best secondary locked down our receivers, and Duke 2x, Brown 1x, both failed to convert plays that we saw made routinely for every other QB in these playoffs. If Duke makes that TD catch. If Duke holds onto that sideline pass. If Brown catches the sideline throw. If anyone makes a block in OT. If ANY of those things happen, we win and Josh either would have thrown for 300 or ran for over 100. I expect Josh to learn from this year, grow from this year, and I expect him to have guys next year that make plays for him. Those things should lead to a break out year for Allen. Edited January 15, 2020 by SCBills 1
Ray Stonada Posted January 15, 2020 Posted January 15, 2020 Funny thought: not only are Josh's stats close to RW's, but close to the first three years of Tom Brady as a starter, if you go by rating, which combines the other things: both are about an 85 rating. And Josh adds the great rushing numbers. And Brady was protected by a very friendly scheme full of easy throws like dump offs and screens. Like Brady, I think Josh can emerge into a greater form once he has more weapons and more experience.
Bangarang Posted January 15, 2020 Posted January 15, 2020 (edited) 10 minutes ago, warrior9 said: Ummmm because we have a QB that has similar if not identical stats to a QB that is currently a top 3 NFL QB and people think Josh isn't the guy. Developmentally we have a QB that seems to be on track for the first time in a decade plus. And again, Allen’s 2nd year stats are also strikingly similar to Mariota who was benched and looks to be on his way out of Tennessee. Why didn’t you pick him? Edited January 15, 2020 by Bangarang 1
Orlando Buffalo Posted January 15, 2020 Posted January 15, 2020 The overall numbers I think are a good indicator of where he is as a player. Josh is certainly not elite but he is average. He is probably 2 years behind RW as a pro coming into his second year since RW was older and was in a better offense in college but JA is closing that gap. 1
SCBills Posted January 15, 2020 Posted January 15, 2020 1 minute ago, Bangarang said: And again, Allen’s 2nd year stats are also strikingly similar to Mariota who was benched and looks to be on his way out of Tennessee. Why didn’t you pick him? You have eyes... you watch games. Who does Josh's game look more like?.. The running, big play ability game of RW or the check down, timid game of Mariota? 3
warrior9 Posted January 15, 2020 Author Posted January 15, 2020 (edited) 6 minutes ago, SCBills said: You have eyes... you watch games. Who does Josh's game look more like?.. The running, big play ability game of RW or the check down, timid game of Mariota? Thanks, I was going to ignore that. Edited January 15, 2020 by warrior9
HappyDays Posted January 15, 2020 Posted January 15, 2020 51 minutes ago, DCOrange said: The eye test between Wilson back then and Allen (as well as some of the metrics) are just nowhere near each other though. I Eh this is kind of revisionist history. There was legitimate skepticism of Russell Wilson's 2nd year, on whether he was actually good or just a product of an outstanding defense and running game. Certainly no one was predicting he would be a top 5 QB for most of his career. 1
Over 29 years of fanhood Posted January 15, 2020 Posted January 15, 2020 42 minutes ago, Buffalo Junction said: No he wasn’t. Tate aside, the rest of those guys were late round picks and UDFAs on rookie deals. They developed with Wilson and made plays, but a lot of that had to do with Wilson throwing perfect balls and scrambling to give them time to get off coverage. Not to mention 8 man boxes to stop Lynch. lol who “stopped” lynch exactly?
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