Josh Allen vs. Russel Wilson Year 2

[warrior9]

I saw a thread that compared Josh to all second round QB's in the last 15 years or so but I wanted to focus on Russel Wilson because I think they have some similarities and I think Russel Wilson is a gamer and an elite QB. Both are considered mobile passers. Both had great defenses. I think this bodes well for us because Josh is also 2 years younger than RW was in his second year. 

 

What's interesting: They both had a ton of fumbles. Almost identical # of total TD's, yards, INTs, and both relied on the defense quite a bit. Josh took less sacks but had ~5% lower completion percentage.

 

Josh in year 2:

Passing:

Year	Age	Tm	Pos	No.	G	GS	QBrec	Cmp	Att	Cmp%	Yds	TD	TD%	Int	Int%	1D	Lng	Y/A	AY/A	Y/C	Y/G	Rate	QBR	Sk	Yds	NY/A	ANY/A	Sk%	4QC	GWD	AV
2019	23	BUF	QB	17	16	16	10-6-0	271	461	58.8	3089	20	4.3	9	2.0	146	53	6.7	6.7	11.4	193.1	85.3	45.8	38	237	5.72	5.71	7.6	4	5	11

Rushing:

Year	Age	Tm	Pos	No.	G	GS	Rush	Yds	TD	1D	Lng	Y/A	Y/G	A/G	Tgt	Rec	Yds	Y/R	TD	1D	Lng	R/G	Y/G	Ctch%	Y/Tgt	Touch	Y/Tch	YScm	RRTD	Fmb
2019	23	BUF	QB	17	16	16	109	510	9	42	36	4.7	31.9	6.8												109	4.7	510	9	14

 

RW year 2:

Passing:

Year	Age	Tm	Pos	No.	G	GS	QBrec	Cmp	Att	Cmp%	Yds	TD	TD%	Int	Int%	1D	Lng	Y/A	AY/A	Y/C	Y/G	Rate	QBR	Sk	Yds	NY/A	ANY/A	Sk%	4QC	GWD	AV
2013*	25	SEA	QB	3	16	16	13-3-0	257	407	63.1	3357	26	6.4	9	2.2	157	80	8.2	8.5	13.1	209.8	101.2	66.8	44	272	6.84	7.10	9.8	3	4	16

 

Rushing:

Year	Age	Tm	Pos	No.	G	GS	Rush	Yds	TD	1D	Lng	Y/A	Y/G	A/G	Tgt	Rec	Yds	Y/R	TD	1D	Lng	R/G	Y/G	Ctch%	Y/Tgt	Touch	Y/Tch	YScm	RRTD	Fmb
2013*	25	SEA	QB	3	16	16	96	539	1	31	27	5.6	33.7	6.0												96	5.6	539	1	12

 

 

That year, Russel Wilson went to the Pro Bowl. The national narrative is Josh is not a good QB. He had the second most drops in the NFL, he had a rookie TE and RB, and an underwhelming receiving core (although, I do love what Smoke brings). 

 

Russel WIlson has Golden Tate, Marshawn Lynch, Doug Baldwin, Jermaine Kerse (eh), and Zach Miller. 

 

--I think this can shed some positive light on Josh's future potential. It excites me to know he's in good company and I'm excited to see what he can do with some more weapons!

Edited January 15, 2020 by warrior9

[Brand J]

When he gets the deep ball down he’ll be a legitimate force. Chunk plays will help to mask many of his other inconsistencies. 

[warrior9]

Just now, JayBaller10 said:

When he gets the deep ball down he’ll be a legitimate force. Chunk plays will help to mask many of his other inconsistencies. 

I don't disagree, first Patriots game and Ravens game were both W's if he hits 2 of his over throws

[DCOrange]

At the end of the day, I'm happy with the progress Allen made this year. The eye test between Wilson back then and Allen (as well as some of the metrics) are just nowhere near each other though. It is kinda impressive how similar their raw numbers were though.

[Dr. Who]

This thread is going to upset the self-proclaimed realists.

[warrior9]

6 hours ago, DCOrange said:

At the end of the day, I'm happy with the progress Allen made this year. The eye test between Wilson back then and Allen (as well as some of the metrics) are just nowhere near each other though. It is kinda impressive how similar their raw numbers were though.

So Russel's 12 fumbles pass the eye test but Josh's 14 are worrisome? 

 

Russel was throwing to a much more well rounded group of receivers as well. As great as Smoke was this year, it's still his 3rd team in 3 years (or 4). The drops of our receivers sky rocket Josh's completion percentage too. I did the math and it came out that even if our receivers caught half of the drops, he's at 61% completion percentage.

Edited January 15, 2020 by warrior9

[colin]

that's quite the comparison.

 

difference on the pitch: russ will extended plays leading to long arcing bombs to a bevy of wideouts (wasn't harvin on their team that year or the next?).  Seattle also had a kinda monster O line and a better run game, much better skill talent.

 

allen seems to either hit surgical mid range ropes, or bides time to find them, and struggles with the deeper stuff (some of that is WR talent, but some of that is a result of his shortcomings).

 

pretty similar production tho.  also, russ will was 25 and had time a pretty solid big10 program ahead of that.  

 

good example!

[SCBills]

For all the talk about QB's needing to elevate those around them, especially once they get big money, there aren't too many elite QB's out there that are doing it without an elite weapon or two. 

 

Brees has Kamara and Thomas

Brady had Gronk

Watson has Hopkins

Mahomes has Kelce and Hill

Rodgers has Adams

Big Ben had Bell and AB

 

Makes Russell Wilson look that much better when you realize he hasn't had guys like that to throw to.

 

Josh may take some time to master the intricacies of veteran QB play, but I would be shocked if he doesn't make a huge jump in stats when his best weapon isn't a sub 6' #2 WR.

 

 

Edited January 15, 2020 by SCBills

[rayray808]

this debate got real ugly on twitter

[Buffalo Junction]

4 minutes ago, warrior9 said:

So Russel's 12 fumbles pass the eye test but Josh's 14 are worrisome? 

 

Russel was throwing to a much more well rounded group of receivers as well. As great as Smoke was this year, it's still his 3rd team in 3 years (or 4). The drops of our receivers sky rocket Josh's completion percentage two. I did the math and it came out that even if our receivers caught half of the drops, he's at 61% completion percentage.

No he wasn’t. Tate aside, the rest of those guys were late round picks and UDFAs on rookie deals. They developed with Wilson and made plays, but a lot of that had to do with Wilson throwing perfect balls and scrambling to give them time to get off coverage. Not to mention 8 man boxes to stop Lynch. 

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

Yeah - the YPA, NY/A, ANY/A numbers are where the biggest improvement needs to come.  More completions, more attempts, fewer yards.  

 

Completion % will bring those numbers up, as will hitting some of the deep ones.

[Big Turk]

If Allen had even around the league average in drops he would be about 61.5% completion percentage...that makes me feel a little better but on the flip side, some of the drops happened because of poor ball placement which made the catches more difficult than they should have been.

[warrior9]

5 minutes ago, SCBills said:

For all the talk about QB's needing to elevate those around them, especially once they get big money, there aren't too many elite QB's out there that are doing it without an elite weapon or two. 

 

Brees has Kamara and Thomas

Brady had Gronk

Watson has Hopkins

Mahomes has Kelce and Hill

Rodgers has Adams

 

Makes Russell Wilson look that much better when you realize he hasn't had guys like that to throw to.

 

Josh may take some time to master the intricacies of veteran QB play, but I would be shocked if he doesn't make a huge jump in stats when he his best weapon isn't a sub 6' #2 WR.

 

Yeah I mean, Golden Tate is a GREAT football player and Doug Baldwin was a very solid NFL receiver for years. I think this is very telling on how well Josh actually played this year with the limitations of his surrounding cast. 

4 minutes ago, Buffalo Junction said:

No he wasn’t. Tate aside, the rest of those guys were late round picks and UDFAs on rookie deals. They developed with Wilson and made plays, but a lot of that had to do with Wilson throwing perfect balls and scrambling to give them time to get off coverage. Not to mention 8 man boxes to stop Lynch. 

Golden Tate and Doug Baldwin would be #1 and 2 on this team. Zach Miller would be our starting TE.

8 in the box would make throwing easier, which is my point. 

 

Teams stacked the box and put 8 in the box and played man against us (the good defenses that could) because our receivers couldn't get a step on the DBs

Edited January 15, 2020 by warrior9

[2003Contenders]

Wilson came into the league a much more polished passer than Josh. He was also a couple of years older -- and more mature. Wilson also joined a team that was pretty well formulated and had recently made playoff runs with a fantastic defense and solid running game. In fact, I would say that the Seahawks team that Wilson joined his rookie season is somewhat similar to the team that Josh will be playing for NEXT year.

 

It is funny that we compare their playing styles and production -- but whereas Josh represents the prototypical NFL QB at 6'5", the only reason Wilson wasn't a sure fire 1st round pick is because scouts were afraid of his 5'10" stature. Also noteworthy is the 2012 draft that produced Wilson. Andrew Luck and RG3 were the high profile QBs that went 1-2 overall. Luck is out of the league, and RG3 is now a backup. Meanwhile, Tannehill, Wilson and Cousins all led their teams to the playoffs this season.

[warrior9]

2 minutes ago, 2003Contenders said:

Wilson came into the league a much more polished passer than Josh. He was also a couple of years older -- and more mature. Wilson also joined a team that was pretty well formulated and had recently made playoff runs with a fantastic defense and solid running game. In fact, I would say that the Seahawks team that Wilson joined his rookie season is somewhat similar to the team that Josh will be playing for NEXT year.

 

It is funny that we compare their playing styles and production -- but whereas Josh represents the prototypical NFL QB at 6'5", the only reason Wilson wasn't a sure fire 1st round pick is because scouts were afraid of his 5'10" stature. Also noteworthy is the 2012 draft that produced Wilson. Andrew Luck and RG3 were the high profile QBs that went 1-2 overall. Luck is out of the league, and RG3 is now a backup. Meanwhile, Tannehill, Wilson and Cousins all led their teams to the playoffs this season.

The Tannehil one is debatable  .. I think DH led that team to the play offs. But no, I get it. 

 

I agree, I think next year will be a big year for Josh. 

[eball]

I'm tired of all of the comparisons between Josh and this QB or that QB.  I know what my eyes have seen, and this kid not only has the "it" factor, he's also obsessively committed to making himself better and becoming great.  Next season's jump will be even bigger than this season's progression, and I have no doubt Beane is going to find more weapons to put around him.  If Josh stays healthy he will wind up obliterating every Buffalo Bills QB record in the book.

[colin]

6 minutes ago, warrior9 said:

Yeah I mean, Golden Tate is a GREAT football player and Doug Baldwin was a very solid NFL receiver for years. I think this is very telling on how well Josh actually played this year with the limitations of his surrounding cast. 

Golden Tate and Doug Baldwin would be #1 and 2 on this team. Zach Miller would be our starting TE.

8 in the box would make throwing easier, which is my point. 

 

Teams stacked the box and put 8 in the box and played man against us (the good defenses that could) because our receivers couldn't get a step on the DBs

 

going top to bottom on skill talent, Motor would be a sick back up to lynch, knox would get some burn but obv not start, brown would get a good number of snaps and if they could figure out what to do w him bease would get in as the 4th or 5th wr.

 

even tho we made sick strides from last season, it is kinda shocking how much of a skill position deficit we run.

[Buffalo Junction]

1 minute ago, warrior9 said:

Golden Tate and Doug Baldwin would be #1 and 2 on this team. Zach Miller would be our starting TE.

If you threw that cast on this team Tate would be playing with Beasley and Brown. The rest would be developmental guys. What they turned into and the players they were when they first got into the league are very different. Kudos to their work ethic and Seattle’s coaching staffs. Comparatively, Allen is throwing to a veteran Beasley and not fresh out of camp UDFA Beasley that caught 15 passes. 
 

I’m not knocking Allen. He’s improved tremendously and no where near his ceiling. His play style and inexperience aren’t exactly great for improving the play of inexperienced receivers though. Some of that is on coaching though.... A lot of these other teams with scrambling QBs have WRs who settle in zones, work back to the QB, etc during a scramble. Ours don’t do that well, and that’s most likely due to coaching. The one guy who really seems to have that aspect figured out is Sweeney, and they stopped playing him (coaching).

[JaCrispy]

1 minute ago, eball said:

I'm tired of all of the comparisons between Josh and this QB or that QB.  I know what my eyes have seen, and this kid not only has the "it" factor, he's also obsessively committed to making himself better and becoming great.  Next season's jump will be even bigger than this season's progression, and I have no doubt Beane is going to find more weapons to put around him.  If Josh stays healthy he will wind up obliterating every Buffalo Bills QB record in the book.

Comparing players is what fans do, and is the only way to tell if they are good or not...this will continue until Josh proves himself- and possibly even the rest of his career... 

[warrior9]

4 minutes ago, eball said:

I'm tired of all of the comparisons between Josh and this QB or that QB.  I know what my eyes have seen, and this kid not only has the "it" factor, he's also obsessively committed to making himself better and becoming great.  Next season's jump will be even bigger than this season's progression, and I have no doubt Beane is going to find more weapons to put around him.  If Josh stays healthy he will wind up obliterating every Buffalo Bills QB record in the book.

I do not disagree in the slightest. I'm doing this to further prove that I believe we have our guy. I don't think many people do(or could have done) more with less than Josh did.