Things that will be hard to repeat in 2020

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

While there are loads of threads about what else he team needs to add or do, I wanted to open a topic listing the things that went well, improbably well, that will be hard to replicate. 

 

It’s natural to assume next years team will be an incremental improvement to this year, it’s not always a reasonable assumption. Here are some of the keys. 
 

1) schedule - not only did the bills face the worst NFC division, timing was good for a few of them. Giants got better after the QB switch. Titans weren’t all aboard the Henry Train yet, jets and dolphins were disasters, Steelers with a total mess at QB and  a bunch of other stars banged up.  They were lucky to avoid too many winning teams. The teams above 500 they did play, they lost to all but one (Titans). 

 

2) injuries - can you ever remember a season where almost no one was added to the IR during the year? Phillips and Alexander were the only two in season I can find. Injury wise this team did very well. They didn’t lose any stars and the few guys that were banged up, were replaced with depth so it didn’t cause too big of an issue.  In particular the o line held together most of the season, which is huge. Guess it’s improbable to impossible to have that luck again, unless they’ve got some magic hot tubs or something 
 

3) Elite defense. The defense was really top notch this season. They say it’s hard for defenses to stay elite, year after year. Also they really didn’t face a many elite passing QBs. Declining Brady was probably it the best QB they faced, followed by Wentz. From there the list is pretty sad. While they are returning most of the defense, I expect them to drop in the rankings a bit next year when they face Wilson, Garapollo, Goff, Carr, Mahomes and evening Kyler Murray. They also have the titans, maybe Brady Ben R and Rivers too. Next year on paper right now is a big challenge for the defense. They will be facing most of this years top teams
 

4) road warriors: since they played a bunch of mediocre to bad teams on the road, bills fans were able to be there en mass which greatly diminishes home field advantage not only because the lift the fans give, it’s also a seat not filled by opposing fan. How bills mafia travels next season? We will see, thank goodness the Chiefs are at new Era 

 

5) under the radar- one of the mantra Sean kept harping on to galvanize the team is that underdog mentality. The “everyone out there doesn’t give us a chance” message. Going into Houston, everyone picked them to win. I expect they are going to get a lot of favorable press as possible super Bowl contenders next year. The rallying cry of the world underestimating the Bills won’t pack the same punch if any at all. 

6) opposing kickers sucked. In fantasy football one of the things they rank is how well or poorly position groups fare against each team then rank them. In 2019 the Bills were 32.  Kickers preformed worse against the bills than any other team. Part of that is to do with defense, but there was a stretch early on where kickers vs bills were missing easy kicks like crazy.  This also seems unlikely to repeat. 

 

All in all a lot of significant things went the bills way this season, more than any season in recent memory. Let’s hope the improvement is so drastic this offseason they can still succeed even with a little less help from karma. 

[bills_fan]

We had zero defensive TDs and only one special teams TD.  I would think that would be pretty hard to repeat as well.

[Rc2catch]

I think we will absolutely stay under the radar. Playoffs or not, Brady leaving New England or not, jets getting better or not, we won’t be seen as a threat to anything again. Jets and Pats will still get the love, maybe an occasional “look out for buffalo though” with no real follow through put into it. 

[zow2]

The bad news:  Jets & Miami should be improved...overall schedule is definitely looking harder.

 

The good news: Maybe New England finally drops off a bit and wins 10 games instead of 12-13.  It would be nice to have a realistic chance to win the division and not have to scratch and claw with the rest of the AFC for a wild card slot.  No one is scared of NE anymore...except Buffalo. 

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

I think #4 is part of #1, looking at overall schedule was easy, and they played some of the easier ones on the road like Giants, in hindsight Dallas and Pitt, at the time Tenn.

 

Think it's somewhat easier for a defense to stay elite than offense as overall salaries are lower on that side so less players victim to cap casualties.

[Aussie Joe]

Things that will be the same....

 

-One rebuilding division foe and another one coached by an absolute numpty....

-Senior Coaching staff all returning for another year 

 

Things that will be better for the Bills

 

-Big dogs of the division appears to be in decline

-A team that had 9 new starters on O will have had another off season to develop

-$80-$90 M in Cap to find a few playmakers .. ( Hopefully...)

[ProcessAccepted]

We'll be better. This is a team that believes in themselves and knows how much work it takes. They are not afraid of anyone.

[Gordio]

You make some good points OP, but a few things, I wouldn't read too much into the schedule.  On paper, we played 5 teams that made the playoffs this year & we will play 6 next year.  Teams change a ton from year to year.  Like for instance I could see the Arizona game being a tougher game than when Seattle comes to the cap.  Hopefully we could split with NE next year.  I could see Pitt being a dumpster fire.  & I think Tenn is playing way over their heads right now & could see them coming back down next year.  San Diego should be horrible, Denver is winnable, Raiders are winnable, Rams, Jets, Dolphins all winnable games.  I think KC coming up here should be winnable.  They are talking about giving mahomes a $200 million contract in the offseason, their team could be depleted in other areas with that contract(think Rams with Geoff)

 

A lot depends  on Allen, if he continues to imprve I think we are fine.  if he has a Trubisky set back in year 3 we won't make the playoffs.

 

The other thing is we need to get the stadium back to the intimidating days of the late 80s/early 90s.  The Bills need to do better than 4-4 like they did this year at home.  Hopefully there will be a lot of excitement at the stadium & it will be an intimidating place for the visiting team to play at.  

[2003Contenders]

Can't argue with the points about the weak schedule and blessed injury situation.

 

But...

 

We are in great cap shape, so I would expect a net gain (rather than a loss) from the talent perspective.

 

I expect continued progression from Josh as well as improvements to his supporting cast on offense.

 

I do not anticipate a decline in defense -- and trust McD and Frazier to make adjustments on defense to compensate for potential losses (Phillips, Lawson, etc.)

 

I also feel like McD is the type of coach who will learn from his past mistakes. Look for this team to rally around the notion that they have unfinished business to complete in 2020.

 

Also, it is hard to guess just how difficult the schedule will be. For example, at this time last year I had road games in Dallas and Pittsburgh penciled in as likely losses.

[Buffalo Boy]

    It will be hard to lead the league in dropped passes two years in a row.....I hope.

   It will be hard to have our special teams be that mediocre again......I hope.

   I think we will still be over looked though. Nobody outside of Buffalo is giving JA any credit that I am hearing.  I like being over looked.

[H2o]

Honestly, with the schedule the AFCE faces as a whole next year, I think 10-6 will win the division next year and I do believe we can get there again. 

[SCBills]

10 minutes ago, 2003Contenders said:

Can't argue with the points about the weak schedule and blessed injury situation.

 

But...

 

We are in great cap shape, so I would expect a net gain (rather than a loss) from the talent perspective.

 

I expect continued progression from Josh as well as improvements to his supporting cast on offense.

 

I do not anticipate a decline in defense -- and trust McD and Frazier to make adjustments on defense to compensate for potential losses (Phillips, Lawson, etc.)

 

I also feel like McD is the type of coach who will learn from his past mistakes. Look for this team to rally around the notion that they have unfinished business to complete in 2020.

 

Also, it is hard to guess just how difficult the schedule will be. For example, at this time last year I had road games in Dallas and Pittsburgh penciled in as likely losses.

Defense should honestly be better next year.  
 

Edmunds in year 3.  Oliver in year 2.  Harrison Phillips back.  
 

One would think we will be upgrading EDGE pressure.  Secondary should stay pretty much in tact. 

[Success]

The counter-balance to that is New England. I think they're in for a rebuild, at long last.  For once, the division is wide open.

 

But the counter to that is that I think both the Phins and Jets will be much more competitive. The former because Flores looks to be an excellent coach, and the latter because Darnold could potentially be a great QB.   He has shown some real flashes, and I think if he didn't miss the 1st part of the season, the Jets might have been right there at the end fighting it out for one of the WC spots.

 

Daunting task ahead, for sure, but I trust Beane.  I think we'll be in a position to take the division - but there are so many close games.  We'll need a few bounces.

 

[atlbillsfan1975]

1 hour ago, bills_fan said:

We had zero defensive TDs and only one special teams TD.  I would think that would be pretty hard to repeat as well.

Don’t try to put a positive spin on things. This is only for reasons why the Bills won’t be good. I understand the sentiment, it helps the people with BBFS, prepare for the worse possibilities.

 

i will add, we won’t have an ancient running back spelling our young stud running back down the stretch. Instead we will have another stud running back.

 

we will have a big bodied wide receiver with speed to help Josh out

 

The entire offense will be back with a year under their belts in the same system. 

Edited January 13, 2020 by atlbillsfan1975

[JMF2006]

Some good teams will slip and this team will be better.

 

I think 10 wins is a very good possibility.

BTW if they win 5 in our division 5 of 11  should be easy.

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

That's the spirit! :Lol:

[H2o]

25 minutes ago, JMF2006 said:

Some good teams will slip and this team will be better.

 

I think 10 wins is a very good possibility.

BTW if they win 5 in our division 5 of 11  should be easy.

Nothing is easy my friend, but the division games will be key. Winning 5 or 6 of those will be essential to our success. 

Edited January 13, 2020 by H2o

[atlbillsfan1975]

It will be hard for the Pats to win 8 games due to an offense without a starting caliber QB. 

[transplantbillsfan]

I don't know why people think our schedule is going to be that much worse next year.

 

Every single year the dynamics of the league changes.

 

Dallas and Philly were supposed to be Super Bowl contenders on our schedule.  The Browns were supposed to be competing for the division.  Pittsburgh was Pittsburgh.

 

We're playing AFC and NFC West next year.  As of this moment the Chargers, Broncos, Cardinals, Raiders and Rams look beatable.  Seahawks look tough as always but also beatable.  And the 49ers and Chiefs look like Losses, at this moment.  But that could easily change going into next year.

 

Plus, now I think we're probably actually expecting at least one win against the Pats next year.  

 

Things change every year. Heck, we might be much worse, too.  I don't think we will be, though.  I think we'll get to at least 10 wins again.

[Chaos]

2 hours ago, Over 29 years of fanhood said:

While there are loads of threads about what else he team needs to add or do, I wanted to open a topic listing the things that went well, improbably well, that will be hard to replicate. 

 

It’s natural to assume next years team will be an incremental improvement to this year, it’s not always a reasonable assumption. Here are some of the keys. 
 

1) schedule - not only did the bills face the worst NFC division, timing was good for a few of them. Giants got better after the QB switch. Titans weren’t all aboard the Henry Train yet, jets and dolphins were disasters, Steelers with a total mess at QB and  a bunch of other stars banged up.  They were lucky to avoid too many winning teams. The teams above 500 they did play, they lost to all but one (Titans). 

 

2) injuries - can you ever remember a season where almost no one was added to the IR during the year? Phillips and Alexander were the only two in season I can find. Injury wise this team did very well. They didn’t lose any stars and the few guys that were banged up, were replaced with depth so it didn’t cause too big of an issue.  In particular the o line held together most of the season, which is huge. Guess it’s improbable to impossible to have that luck again, unless they’ve got some magic hot tubs or something 
 

3) Elite defense. The defense was really top notch this season. They say it’s hard for defenses to stay elite, year after year. Also they really didn’t face a many elite passing QBs. Declining Brady was probably it the best QB they faced, followed by Wentz. From there the list is pretty sad. While they are returning most of the defense, I expect them to drop in the rankings a bit next year when they face Wilson, Garapollo, Goff, Carr, Mahomes and evening Kyler Murray. They also have the titans, maybe Brady Ben R and Rivers too. Next year on paper right now is a big challenge for the defense. They will be facing most of this years top teams
 

4) road warriors: since they played a bunch of mediocre to bad teams on the road, bills fans were able to be there en mass which greatly diminishes home field advantage not only because the lift the fans give, it’s also a seat not filled by opposing fan. How bills mafia travels next season? We will see, thank goodness the Chiefs are at new Era 

 

5) under the radar- one of the mantra Sean kept harping on to galvanize the team is that underdog mentality. The “everyone out there doesn’t give us a chance” message. Going into Houston, everyone picked them to win. I expect they are going to get a lot of favorable press as possible super Bowl contenders next year. The rallying cry of the world underestimating the Bills won’t pack the same punch if any at all. 

6) opposing kickers sucked. In fantasy football one of the things they rank is how well or poorly position groups fare against each team then rank them. In 2019 the Bills were 32.  Kickers preformed worse against the bills than any other team. Part of that is to do with defense, but there was a stretch early on where kickers vs bills were missing easy kicks like crazy.  This also seems unlikely to repeat. 

 

All in all a lot of significant things went the bills way this season, more than any season in recent memory. Let’s hope the improvement is so drastic this offseason they can still succeed even with a little less help from karma. 

I think item 3 is pretty dependent on item 1 in your list.  You make very good points overall.  Every fan of every team, other than maybe 1 or 2 in full blown rebuilds,  think there team will be marginally better the next.  The right way to think about it is how do we get better than the Chiefs and Ravens next year, and maybe the Titans now.