Buffalo_Stampede Posted January 11, 2020 Posted January 11, 2020 Beane's ego will take a hit pretty bad if Ford doesn’t work. He was so excited when they landed him..It's going to be interesting how they approach the offseason with Ford. He had no business being on the field this season.
CSBill Posted January 11, 2020 Posted January 11, 2020 Not sure where RT will go, but I think one big off-season question to settle, who is the better swing tackle option: Nsekhe, Waddle, or Bates? One of them will be let go, one will be the ST, and the other could be trade bait? I wonder if Waddle, who is a few years younger, than Nsekhe, ends up being the guy. But of course, if Bates continues to develop, he is such a valuable asset being able to play multiple positions competently.
Ayjent Posted January 11, 2020 Posted January 11, 2020 Honestly they could stand to upgrade both Tackle positions, and have an insurance and succession plan at C. This OL group is largely a bridge that is not bad but could be much better. GMs are always wise to draft on the lines and the Houston game demonstrated that the line still needs work. Two really important drives were stunted by poor line play (and no I’m not talking about the illegal crackback call - that was horse$#!t), too many missed blocks.
MasterStrategist Posted January 12, 2020 Posted January 12, 2020 On 1/10/2020 at 11:06 AM, MAJBobby said: Sorry was going to have this out yesterday but wifey had a long honey do list. Happy wife happy life. ***Disclaimer*** I will not put all Names not on the Bills in this thread as it would get to long, I will keep it to a couple names in each tier (as I see them). Will wrap of on offense with WR later today or maybe tomorrow and then on to the Defense next week. If you have a position group you want me to start with on Defense let me know. Hope you enjoy the read. Past Writeups Quarterback Running Backs Tight Ends Specialists Currently on Roster: (Positional Spending 9 players 28.981M Cap (ranked 23rd in league) Mitch Morse (UFA 2023) – Saves 1.375M against cap if Cut Ty Nsekhe (UFA 2021) – Saves 3.7M against cap if Cut Jon Feliciano (UFA 2021) – Saves 3M against cap if Cut Dion Dawkins (UFA 2021) – Saves 1.072M against cap if Cut Cody Ford (UFA 2023) Ike Boettger (RFA 2021) – Saves 660K against cap if Cut Ryan Bates (RFA 2022) – Saves 585K against cap if Cut Victor Salako (signed futures deal) Expiring Contracts LaAdrian Waddle (29 yrs old) (2.0M AVV) Quinton Spain (29 yrs old) (2.050M AVV) Spencer Long (Club Option 2021) (UFA 2022) – Saves 3.425M against cap if Club Option denied. (technically he will be here as he is not on Contract until the Bills decide on the Club Option.) Also a trade option out before and after picking up the club option. My Take: Numbers from the group as a Hole: Pass Protection Ranked 23rd with 40 sacks and a 7.8% Adjusted Sack Rate Adjusted Run yards ranked 16th Power Success Rate - 58% ranked 25th Stuffed Rate - 22% ranked 28th To break it down a little further running stats per location: Left Outside - 3.67 YPA - NFL AVG 4.09 ypa (21st Rank) (4% of the carries, NFL AVG 11%) - WR Blocking and TE blocking on this side was not good Left Tackle - 5.48 YPA - NFL AVG 4.25 ypa (10th Rank) (13% of the carries, NFL AVG 12%) Middle (over the OGs) - 4.37 YPA - 4.54 YPA NFL AVG (12th Rank) (64% of carries, NFL AVG 56%) Right Tackle 2.95 YPA - NFL AVG 4.20 ypa (29th Ranked) (14% of carries, NFL AVG 12%) - MAJOR ISSUS WITH RT run blocking Right Outside 6.13 YPA - NFL AVG 4.40 ypa (1st Rank) (4% of carries, NFL AVG 9%) - WR Blocking and TE blocking on this side was great First, I will address the expiring contracts. I think the club option on Long is the thing I am going to be watching for a couple reasons. 1. I think Feliciano has not only taken the OG from him but really seems like he has solidified the BU C spot as well. When Morse went down Feliciano is the one that took that Center Spot and Long came in at the OG spot if I remember correctly. What the Bills do with this option is going to foreshadow what they are thinking with Ford IMO. Pick the option up the plan is for Ford to stay out at RT. Decline the Option and I think that means Ford kicks inside. However, It also could all hinge on the OTHER expiring contract as well, Spain. If Spain gets re-signed option could be declined, if Spain hits the market the option will be picked up IMO. With all that, I am fine with the Bills decision either way on this club option. Now let’s get to Spain, he played 99% of the snaps, and did not allow a sack (impressive when you look at the defenses that we played). To be honest I could also say was the most impactful of the offseason signings last year. He was also very solid in run game and very powerful. The Other thing that came out recently is Spain helped during the games setting protection with Morse. Those two are on the same Page, and Dawkins got back to form like he did when he had another top on LG playing next to him in Incognito. I know Allen is pretty much automatic on Sneaks however ask Houston they are not give me plays you must be Powerful at OG to run them. Center holds ground and OGs get push and those seams open. Out of all the Bills UFAs this year I think Spain is my critical re-sign, however he is not going to come cheap. Rodger Saffold and Billy Turner last year are going to be my Comparable. So, I could see something like a 4-year 42M with 20gtd (10.5 AVV) will be what it will cost to re-sign him. Now he won’t be the best OG on the market (that belongs to Scherff) so that helps as well. The biggest hole IMO on this line is at RT. I know Ford is a Rookie I get that, but I also know I he didn’t answer my question of is he a RT or is he a OG. I know that OL are taking longer and longer to develop in the NFL as well, so I really don’t want to address the position if I can avoid it in the Draft and be in the same spot we are with Ford right now. The window is open So I would like to buy a RT to make sure that position is fixed with Nsehke (who at this point SHOULD be a Swing OT), Ford and UFA. If the RT can get better, I think we are on the way to having a top end line, I am not concerned at all with LT, LG (if Spain re-signed) Center or RG. But as I said earlier, the Spain Contract will point to me where they are going with the OL. They Could Easily let Spain walk, move Feliciano to LG, Ford to RG and buy an UFA for RT. Right now, I think we have a top 15 OL easily, and could be a top 10 or higher by addressing the RT spot. Of the lower guys (Boettger, Bates, Salako) the only one that has shown me enough to really be thought about in 2020 is Bates. Beane and McD did a good job making the OL respectable last off- season, now I think they take respectable and turn it into top end this offseason. My mindset this off-season would be Re-sign Spain, Upgrade RT and then draft into the position group with some late round depth, and UDFA developmental guys. Possible Trade: (based on Deadline rumors) Trent Williams UFAs Possible Tier 1 Brandon Schreff (OG) Quinton Spain (OG) Joe Thurney (OG) Rob Leary (OG) (Club Option) Jack Conklin (RT) Daryl Williams (RT) Tier 2 Andrus Peat (OG) Joe Haeg (OG) Xavier Su’a-Filo (OG) Brian Bulaga (RT) Marcus Gilbert (RT) Germain Ifedi (RT) Draft Tier 1 (1st and 2nd round grades) Austin Jackson (OT) (USC) Andrew Thomas (OT) (Georgia) Tristan Wirfs (OT) (Iowa) Jedrick Wills (OT) (Alabama) Trey Adams (OT) (Washington) Prince Tega Wanogho (OT) (Auburn) Isaiah Wilson (OT) (Georgia) Josh Jones (OT) (Houston) Tier 2 (3rd-5th round) Logan Stenberg (OG) (Kentucky) Hakeem Adeniji (OG) (Kansas) – Also a Tier OT Prospect Netane Muti (OG) (Fresno St) Mekhi Becton (OT) (Louisville) Lucas Niang (OT) (TCU) Clavin Throckmorton (OT) (Oregon) Tier 3 (6th – Priority UFA) Deonte Brown (OG) (Alabama) Kevin Jarvis (OG) (Michigan State) Jonah Jackson (OG) (Ohio State) John Simpson (OG) (Clemson) Ben Cleveland (OG) (Georgia) Damien Lewis (OG) (LSU) Micheal Onwenu (OG) (Michigan) John Molchon (OG) (Boise State) Simon Stepaniak (OG) (Indiana) Yasir Durant (OT) (Missouri) Terence Steele (OT) (Texas Tech) Saahdiq Charles (OT) LSU Ezra Cleveland (OT) (Boise ST) Robert Hunt (OT) (Louisiana-Lafayette) Ben Bartch (OT) (St. Johns) Matt Peart (OT) (UCONN) Final thinking in this Position group for me would be: I would like to really turn this OL into a top group, so I am going to spend some money in this position again this UFA Period. In-line with Paying our own and keeping this team together I start with Spain and a 4-year 42M, 20GTD, 10.5 AVV (an out after year two of this contract). I then cross my fingers through the tag season and go sign Jack Conklin 6-year 91M, 50M GTD, 15.1 AVV (an out after year 4). Another UFA Option that would be an Upgrade and Cheaper at RT is Daryl Williams. I let Waddle walk and if I cannot trade him before the option is due, I do not pick up Spencer Longs Club Option (won’t need to after re-signing Spain). By Doing that that puts this OL group looking like this going into the draft where I could use some of my late round picks (2 - 5ths and 3 – 6ths) to grab some more organizational depth, and development LT – Dawkins LG – Spain C – Morse RG – Feliciano RT – Conklin Depth: Nsehke Ford Bates Boettger Salako The organizational depth here is pretty solid, especially after re-signing Spain. I then can focus on adding talent and turning it into an OL that will be talked about as one of the Best. I don’t want to suffer with another Rookie RT, So I fix this position in UFA, and then put this team into a position to start getting later round talents and developing which will leave options a couple years down the road when players are aged as well as looking for new contracts. Excellent write ups on all the position groups. I am likely in the minority, but think Ford can become a very good RT. I agree that signing Spain back, should be priority #1. Consistency is key, but especially at the offensive line. It is unusual to have 4 new starters on the oline during a season. and think the progression as a unit in year 2 will be noticable. I know this is oline discussion, but top priorities for this team is defensive end, WR, then RB..imo. Singletary is going to be a good one, but zero depth and would be a nice compliment with a speed and power back (think Ravens with Ingram, do it all then Edward's as power and justice hill speed). At def end, Hughes still has enough juice to be disruptive, but Murphy, Lawson (who I dont think will be resigned), and Johnson...Meh. surprised our defense performed as well as it did, and it severely impacted turnovers with lack of quick pressure....this defense plays so fundamentally sound and the scheme is bend, no break that it disguises a ton of pressure packages. We desperately need an upgrade of talent here. wide receiver is so obvious too. similar to def end, but at least we have 2 quality starters in Smoke and Beas. But depth is a huge concern and Josh just needs more options, when Beas is bracketed and Brown is doubled or matched against top corners. In addition to being very important to Allen's development, this offense needs some playmakers who can deliver big plays. Josh and the offense progressed nicely this year, especially at building long sustained drives. But they struggled to turn into points too many times, and our lack of big plays definitely didn't help.
Solomon Grundy Posted January 12, 2020 Posted January 12, 2020 (edited) How great would the Bills Mafia and Niang Gang sound!! With Gangsters paradise playing in the background. Edited January 12, 2020 by the skycap
MrEpsYtown Posted January 12, 2020 Posted January 12, 2020 Nice job! Excellent write up. To me, at 22 in the draft, the best linemen avalable might be Tyler Biadasz. I know he is a center and we have Morse, but take the best linemen and figure everything else out later. Maybe he could play guard for a year or two ala Eric Wood. Maybe Morse moves to left guard (he is a former left tackle, and maybe a move to guard help his concussion situation). Anyways, Biadasz is elite and one of my favorite offensive linemen I've seen in a while. Probably the best interior linemen I have seen since Quentin Nelson. Just take him and he will give you elite production for 15 years.
TheBeaneBandit Posted January 12, 2020 Posted January 12, 2020 20 hours ago, Buffalo_Stampede said: Beane's ego will take a hit pretty bad if Ford doesn’t work. He was so excited when they landed him..It's going to be interesting how they approach the offseason with Ford. He had no business being on the field this season. He def had common rookie struggles but the guy had some pretty solid moments as well ex. TJ Watt.....Ford will end up a solid player be it RT or G.
LABILLBACKER Posted January 12, 2020 Posted January 12, 2020 I want Conklin as a long term RT. Ford can play either guard spot especially if Spain leaves. We haven't had a good RT in so long. Conklin & Ngakoue are my top 2 FA targets. With Hunter Henry as honorable mention. 1
Lurker Posted January 12, 2020 Posted January 12, 2020 If Spain get a $10 million AVV, I will throw up in my mouth...
ALF Posted January 12, 2020 Posted January 12, 2020 (edited) Spain played in every game, which is extremely important to head coach Sean McDermott. Not to mention his teammates spoke glowingly of Spain after the season came to an end in Houston. "We’d love to have him back. He deserves to get paid this offseason," Bills center Mitch Morse said. "The guy started every game, I don’t know if he missed a snap. A great person to be around, smart as hell, he made this offensive line so much better, helped me out a lot. I owe a lot to Quinton Spain.” “He’s been awesome for us. Just his mindset, his attitude, the way he plays, he brings a fire. He’s a really good dude, too,” quarterback Josh Allen said. “I love him and I wish we’d get him back too. I know it’s the nature of the business. If I had a say, we’d have in back.” The veteran guard wants to come back too. Keep the continuity and get him a new contract. https://wgr550.radio.com/articles/opinion/stay-or-go-key-bills-free-agents Edited January 12, 2020 by ALF
MPT Posted January 12, 2020 Posted January 12, 2020 (edited) I appreciate your time in evaluating these guys and writing up a thorough post, but I think you're missing a big element: coaching. I'll admit I could not name the Bills' OL coach nor do I have the expertise to determine whether they're doing the best with what they have. However, when you watch teams like the Patriots consistently giving Brady a clean pocket regardless of the personnel (we've seen Patriots OL backups neutralize our pass rush many times), I have to conclude that coaching and scheme play a bigger role than the players themselves. We signed a few guys this past off-season who had a reputation for being solid in their former roles, yet our protection throughout the year was inconsistent at best. This was supposed to be a vastly improved line in terms of talent and experience, but we didn't see many results. I know a big part of this has to do with Allen holding the ball longer than any other QB in the league (this is fact, not speculation) but when our line gets absolutely manhandled twice in a row in a playoff game that results in losing 30+ yards and field goal position, I wonder how their assignments were completely blown. And I go back to thinking about those well-coached teams who pick up the stunt or cross with practiced ease, or chip the extra man with an RB or TE. When the game mattered most, our line was a confused sieve. So my question to you, as someone who clearly puts time and effort into evaluating offensive line performance, is: does it matter if we upgrade the line with more "talent" or could it merely be that we haven't had a proficient OL coach in a long time? Edited January 12, 2020 by MPT 1
MAJBobby Posted January 12, 2020 Author Posted January 12, 2020 4 hours ago, MPT said: I appreciate your time in evaluating these guys and writing up a thorough post, but I think you're missing a big element: coaching. I'll admit I could not name the Bills' OL coach nor do I have the expertise to determine whether they're doing the best with what they have. However, when you watch teams like the Patriots consistently giving Brady a clean pocket regardless of the personnel (we've seen Patriots OL backups neutralize our pass rush many times), I have to conclude that coaching and scheme play a bigger role than the players themselves. We signed a few guys this past off-season who had a reputation for being solid in their former roles, yet our protection throughout the year was inconsistent at best. This was supposed to be a vastly improved line in terms of talent and experience, but we didn't see many results. I know a big part of this has to do with Allen holding the ball longer than any other QB in the league (this is fact, not speculation) but when our line gets absolutely manhandled twice in a row in a playoff game that results in losing 30+ yards and field goal position, I wonder how their assignments were completely blown. And I go back to thinking about those well-coached teams who pick up the stunt or cross with practiced ease, or chip the extra man with an RB or TE. When the game mattered most, our line was a confused sieve. So my question to you, as someone who clearly puts time and effort into evaluating offensive line performance, is: does it matter if we upgrade the line with more "talent" or could it merely be that we haven't had a proficient OL coach in a long time? Bobby Johnson is going to be thought of as a top end OL coach. But we have had too ens OL coaches in the past but still sucked. The talent is just as important as the coaching.
Bakin Posted January 12, 2020 Posted January 12, 2020 Have you watched the Becton kid from Louisville? 6’8” 350lbs ... moves smooth. I like him as an RT in the 3rd or 4th.
NewEra Posted January 12, 2020 Posted January 12, 2020 another great write up Maj, thx OL is still our biggest need imo. For our QB, building the strongest OL we can afford should be priority #1. Up 16-0 at the half on the road in a playoff game......we decide to run 8 times in the 2nd half. That shows zero confidence in our OL imo. Add the best RT we can get our hands on. Like many have said before and I agree, I don’t want to see ford getting starting snaps at RT. Backup RT and possibly a starting guard. If the FO loves him, move him to guard and let Spain walk, while paying Conklin the big money. Watching ford and Dawkins fall all over themselves on the finals 2 plays vs the Pats week 16 was enough for me. Josh needs protection. Josh needs a better run game. Continue to improve the OL please.
1st Ammendment NoMas Posted January 12, 2020 Posted January 12, 2020 #MAJBOBBY, rocking it out once again. Great analysis. You are my new favorite off-season poster. I agree on your assessment and if Beaner followed the MAJ I wouldn't be disappointed. I hope we don't have to overpay for Spain and I hope Ford becomes so good he makes me forget about Metcalf. The Bills FO plan to keep the band together and fine tune a few instruments is music to my ears. I went into 2019 cautiously optimistic, but for the first time in over 30 years, I'm going in with the feeling we can take the division and make a deep run to the SB.
Mark Vader Posted January 12, 2020 Posted January 12, 2020 Great write-up @MAJBobby, I like your idea of re-signing Spain and going for Conklin. Although I could see the Bills doing just one of those things, but we shall see. I doubt that Cody Ford will be on the sidelines that much next year. They invested a 2nd round pick in him and they will want to see how he does in his second season. While his rookie year was mostly a negative, he quietly played better at RT late in the season. Our O-Line was far better than what we had in 2018, my God how did Josh Allen survive that year? Run blocking was outstanding, but pass blocking was unimpressive. Picking up the blitz was a considerable problem. I would much rather see the Bills address the O-Line in free agency than the draft, aside from getting depth. Another name I would add to your list of draftees would be OG Ben Bredeson(Michigan). I'm enjoying this series you are doing, MAJ. Great job!
BrooklynBills Posted January 14, 2020 Posted January 14, 2020 Pretty much agree with this. Get a top FA RT and watch this OL really become a strength of the team. Also allows you to put Ford inside where he belongs and will have a better impact. LT - Dawkins LG - Spain (think he comes in closer to $8 mil/yr) C - Morse RG - Ford v Feliciano RT - Daryl Williams (don't know if I want to pay Conklin $15 mil)
Dopey Posted January 23, 2020 Posted January 23, 2020 Thanks MAJBobby, Here's what I would like to see happen: LT Dawkins-extend. We have a really good one here. Why create a hole at LT? LG Spain- re-sign. He's everything you want in a LG. Not signing him means creating a hole at LG. We have the $. C Morse- We're good for now RG Feliciano- keep him right there. He's was also to fill in at C here and there. RT Ford- Keep him there. He had ups and downs like any rookie would. Moving Ford to LG is a mistake, IMO. This O-line has only 1 year together. From Center to LT was really good. No need to break that up. In reading posts here and watching him play, Ford had some plays that leave something to be desired, but he wasn't nearly as bad as some make him out to be. He will be in competition for that spot next year, but I think he wins out. Feliciano can battle it out with a draft pick/FA/Long, but I think he wins out also. I wouldn't mind an interior guy in the draft, C/OG to battle Feliciano in this scenario and provide insurance for Morse's concussion concerns. Find a swing tackle and we're good. I think our Oline will be a lot better come season opener with continuity. I seem to recall they never played together as a unit until in the preseason. That means a lot.
MAJBobby Posted January 23, 2020 Author Posted January 23, 2020 Just now, Dopey said: Thanks MAJBobby, Here's what I would like to see happen: LT Dawkins-extend. We have a really good one here. Why create a hole at LT? LG Spain- re-sign. He's everything you want in a LG. Not signing him means creating a hole at LG. We have the $. C Morse- We're good for now RG Feliciano- keep him right there. He's was also to fill in at C here and there. RT Ford- Keep him there. He had ups and downs like any rookie would. Moving Ford to LG is a mistake, IMO. This O-line has only 1 year together. From Center to LT was really good. No need to break that up. In reading posts here and watching him play, Ford had some plays that leave something to be desired, but he wasn't nearly as bad as some make him out to be. He will be in competition for that spot next year, but I think he wins out. Feliciano can battle it out with a draft pick/FA/Long, but I think he wins out also. I wouldn't mind an interior guy in the draft, C/OG to battle Feliciano in this scenario and provide insurance for Morse's concussion concerns. Find a swing tackle and we're good. I think our Oline will be a lot better come season opener with continuity. I seem to recall they never played together as a unit until in the preseason. That means a lot. I understand why people do not want to move Ford. Me I really do. I dont think he has the feet to play outside, and that is fine he will become an All-Pro OG 1
Gambit Posted January 23, 2020 Posted January 23, 2020 3 hours ago, MAJBobby said: I understand why people do not want to move Ford. Me I really do. I dont think he has the feet to play outside, and that is fine he will become an All-Pro OG This 100%. His feet are way to damn slow to be a tackle. I think he can be a solid guard tho.
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