MAJBobby Posted January 10, 2020 Posted January 10, 2020 (edited) Sorry was going to have this out yesterday but wifey had a long honey do list. Happy wife happy life. ***Disclaimer*** I will not put all Names not on the Bills in this thread as it would get to long, I will keep it to a couple names in each tier (as I see them). Will wrap of on offense with WR later today or maybe tomorrow and then on to the Defense next week. If you have a position group you want me to start with on Defense let me know. Hope you enjoy the read. Past Writeups Quarterback Running Backs Tight Ends Specialists Currently on Roster: (Positional Spending 9 players 28.981M Cap (ranked 23rd in league) Mitch Morse (UFA 2023) – Saves 1.375M against cap if Cut Ty Nsekhe (UFA 2021) – Saves 3.7M against cap if Cut Jon Feliciano (UFA 2021) – Saves 3M against cap if Cut Dion Dawkins (UFA 2021) – Saves 1.072M against cap if Cut Cody Ford (UFA 2023) Ike Boettger (RFA 2021) – Saves 660K against cap if Cut Ryan Bates (RFA 2022) – Saves 585K against cap if Cut Victor Salako (signed futures deal) Expiring Contracts LaAdrian Waddle (29 yrs old) (2.0M AVV) Quinton Spain (29 yrs old) (2.050M AVV) Spencer Long (Club Option 2021) (UFA 2022) – Saves 3.425M against cap if Club Option denied. (technically he will be here as he is not on Contract until the Bills decide on the Club Option.) Also a trade option out before and after picking up the club option. My Take: Numbers from the group as a Hole: Pass Protection Ranked 23rd with 40 sacks and a 7.8% Adjusted Sack Rate Adjusted Run yards ranked 16th Power Success Rate - 58% ranked 25th Stuffed Rate - 22% ranked 28th To break it down a little further running stats per location: Left Outside - 3.67 YPA - NFL AVG 4.09 ypa (21st Rank) (4% of the carries, NFL AVG 11%) - WR Blocking and TE blocking on this side was not good Left Tackle - 5.48 YPA - NFL AVG 4.25 ypa (10th Rank) (13% of the carries, NFL AVG 12%) Middle (over the OGs) - 4.37 YPA - 4.54 YPA NFL AVG (12th Rank) (64% of carries, NFL AVG 56%) Right Tackle 2.95 YPA - NFL AVG 4.20 ypa (29th Ranked) (14% of carries, NFL AVG 12%) - MAJOR ISSUS WITH RT run blocking Right Outside 6.13 YPA - NFL AVG 4.40 ypa (1st Rank) (4% of carries, NFL AVG 9%) - WR Blocking and TE blocking on this side was great First, I will address the expiring contracts. I think the club option on Long is the thing I am going to be watching for a couple reasons. 1. I think Feliciano has not only taken the OG from him but really seems like he has solidified the BU C spot as well. When Morse went down Feliciano is the one that took that Center Spot and Long came in at the OG spot if I remember correctly. What the Bills do with this option is going to foreshadow what they are thinking with Ford IMO. Pick the option up the plan is for Ford to stay out at RT. Decline the Option and I think that means Ford kicks inside. However, It also could all hinge on the OTHER expiring contract as well, Spain. If Spain gets re-signed option could be declined, if Spain hits the market the option will be picked up IMO. With all that, I am fine with the Bills decision either way on this club option. Now let’s get to Spain, he played 99% of the snaps, and did not allow a sack (impressive when you look at the defenses that we played). To be honest I could also say was the most impactful of the offseason signings last year. He was also very solid in run game and very powerful. The Other thing that came out recently is Spain helped during the games setting protection with Morse. Those two are on the same Page, and Dawkins got back to form like he did when he had another top on LG playing next to him in Incognito. I know Allen is pretty much automatic on Sneaks however ask Houston they are not give me plays you must be Powerful at OG to run them. Center holds ground and OGs get push and those seams open. Out of all the Bills UFAs this year I think Spain is my critical re-sign, however he is not going to come cheap. Rodger Saffold and Billy Turner last year are going to be my Comparable. So, I could see something like a 4-year 42M with 20gtd (10.5 AVV) will be what it will cost to re-sign him. Now he won’t be the best OG on the market (that belongs to Scherff) so that helps as well. The biggest hole IMO on this line is at RT. I know Ford is a Rookie I get that, but I also know I he didn’t answer my question of is he a RT or is he a OG. I know that OL are taking longer and longer to develop in the NFL as well, so I really don’t want to address the position if I can avoid it in the Draft and be in the same spot we are with Ford right now. The window is open So I would like to buy a RT to make sure that position is fixed with Nsehke (who at this point SHOULD be a Swing OT), Ford and UFA. If the RT can get better, I think we are on the way to having a top end line, I am not concerned at all with LT, LG (if Spain re-signed) Center or RG. But as I said earlier, the Spain Contract will point to me where they are going with the OL. They Could Easily let Spain walk, move Feliciano to LG, Ford to RG and buy an UFA for RT. Right now, I think we have a top 15 OL easily, and could be a top 10 or higher by addressing the RT spot. Of the lower guys (Boettger, Bates, Salako) the only one that has shown me enough to really be thought about in 2020 is Bates. Beane and McD did a good job making the OL respectable last off- season, now I think they take respectable and turn it into top end this offseason. My mindset this off-season would be Re-sign Spain, Upgrade RT and then draft into the position group with some late round depth, and UDFA developmental guys. Possible Trade: (based on Deadline rumors) Trent Williams UFAs Possible Tier 1 Brandon Schreff (OG) Quinton Spain (OG) Joe Thurney (OG) Rob Leary (OG) (Club Option) Jack Conklin (RT) Daryl Williams (RT) Tier 2 Andrus Peat (OG) Joe Haeg (OG) Xavier Su’a-Filo (OG) Brian Bulaga (RT) Marcus Gilbert (RT) Germain Ifedi (RT) Draft Tier 1 (1st and 2nd round grades) Austin Jackson (OT) (USC) Andrew Thomas (OT) (Georgia) Tristan Wirfs (OT) (Iowa) Jedrick Wills (OT) (Alabama) Trey Adams (OT) (Washington) Prince Tega Wanogho (OT) (Auburn) Isaiah Wilson (OT) (Georgia) Josh Jones (OT) (Houston) Tier 2 (3rd-5th round) Logan Stenberg (OG) (Kentucky) Hakeem Adeniji (OG) (Kansas) – Also a Tier OT Prospect Netane Muti (OG) (Fresno St) Mekhi Becton (OT) (Louisville) Lucas Niang (OT) (TCU) Clavin Throckmorton (OT) (Oregon) Tier 3 (6th – Priority UFA) Deonte Brown (OG) (Alabama) Kevin Jarvis (OG) (Michigan State) Jonah Jackson (OG) (Ohio State) John Simpson (OG) (Clemson) Ben Cleveland (OG) (Georgia) Damien Lewis (OG) (LSU) Micheal Onwenu (OG) (Michigan) John Molchon (OG) (Boise State) Simon Stepaniak (OG) (Indiana) Yasir Durant (OT) (Missouri) Terence Steele (OT) (Texas Tech) Saahdiq Charles (OT) LSU Ezra Cleveland (OT) (Boise ST) Robert Hunt (OT) (Louisiana-Lafayette) Ben Bartch (OT) (St. Johns) Matt Peart (OT) (UCONN) Final thinking in this Position group for me would be: I would like to really turn this OL into a top group, so I am going to spend some money in this position again this UFA Period. In-line with Paying our own and keeping this team together I start with Spain and a 4-year 42M, 20GTD, 10.5 AVV (an out after year two of this contract). I then cross my fingers through the tag season and go sign Jack Conklin 6-year 91M, 50M GTD, 15.1 AVV (an out after year 4). Another UFA Option that would be an Upgrade and Cheaper at RT is Daryl Williams. I let Waddle walk and if I cannot trade him before the option is due, I do not pick up Spencer Longs Club Option (won’t need to after re-signing Spain). By Doing that that puts this OL group looking like this going into the draft where I could use some of my late round picks (2 - 5ths and 3 – 6ths) to grab some more organizational depth, and development LT – Dawkins LG – Spain C – Morse RG – Feliciano RT – Conklin Depth: Nsehke Ford Bates Boettger Salako The organizational depth here is pretty solid, especially after re-signing Spain. I then can focus on adding talent and turning it into an OL that will be talked about as one of the Best. I don’t want to suffer with another Rookie RT, So I fix this position in UFA, and then put this team into a position to start getting later round talents and developing which will leave options a couple years down the road when players are aged as well as looking for new contracts. Edited January 10, 2020 by MAJBobby 8 5
CEN-CAL17 Posted January 10, 2020 Posted January 10, 2020 (edited) I am all on board with beefing up the OL.... When it comes to resigning Spain, but putting Ford on the bench for depth I disagree.... My player to watch is C/OG Creed Humphrey. Best C in college football, if he declares hes a round 1 lock. Big time Wrestler as well, Smart and Tough! With Morse having health concerns, missing time here and there, Creed could be the future anchor in the next couple years. If you ask me he is better than Spain. LT- Dawkins LG- Creed C- Morse RG- Feliciano RT- Ford (Nsekhe Depth next year) As far as OTs in the draft.... Wirf, Wills and Adams (potential trade down to late round 1 for Adams RT), Ford goes to RG, Feliciano to LG. Edited January 10, 2020 by CEN-CAL17 1
Dr. Who Posted January 10, 2020 Posted January 10, 2020 9 minutes ago, CEN-CAL17 said: I am all on board with beefing up the OL.... When it comes to resigning Spain, but putting Ford on the bench for depth I disagree.... My player to watch is C/OG Creed Humphrey. Best C in college football, if he declares hes a round 1 lock. Big time Wrestler as well, Smart and Tough! With Morse having health concerns, missing time here and there, Creed could be the future anchor in the next couple years. If you ask me he is better than Spain. LT- Dawkins LG- Creed C- Morse RG- Feliciano RT- Ford (Nsekhe Depth next year) As far as OTs in the draft.... Wirf, Wills and Adams (potential trade down to late round 1 for Adams RT), Ford goes to RG, Feliciano to LG. So, you're using a first round pick on G that can move to C and sticking with Ford at RT. Given Morse's concussion history, that is perhaps not foolish, though Feliciano was at least adequate as a backup at C. Lots of WR depth in the draft, not so much at Edge. Can't argue the importance of the oline, but this seems a bit of a luxury pick given all the other needs at the top of the draft. If they go that way, I suspect CB comes into play as well. I prefer the plan that brings in Conklin as Ford is not at all a sure thing to lock down that spot. Rather have a top RT inserted as bringing immediate impact. Also, you better bring in playmakers at WR, a hammer RB, possibly TE, either through the draft or free agency.
Aussie Joe Posted January 10, 2020 Posted January 10, 2020 Thanks for this... I think Spain gets Re-signed but not for as much as you are saying.. I would say $7M per year for 3 years.. I’m a big fan of him this year but I don’t think they can pay him what you are suggesting... If that’s his value then I think he is getting it from someone else.. I agree that if Spain comes back this probably means the end of Long....He will probably end up traded for a 6th.. I think the RT spot continues another year with Ford supported by Nsekhe.. They will draft another Tackle early Day 3... They could extend Dawkins this offseason if they are convinced he is the LT in the medium term..I keep changing my mind on whether he is good enough but given other holes they have to worry about they probably extend him.. If the above all happens then I don’t see a big name FA signing .. They might bring in a couple of depth guys to compete for a spot and/or possibly bring Waddle back.. 2
JaCrispy Posted January 10, 2020 Posted January 10, 2020 55 minutes ago, CEN-CAL17 said: I am all on board with beefing up the OL.... When it comes to resigning Spain, but putting Ford on the bench for depth I disagree.... My player to watch is C/OG Creed Humphrey. Best C in college football, if he declares hes a round 1 lock. Big time Wrestler as well, Smart and Tough! With Morse having health concerns, missing time here and there, Creed could be the future anchor in the next couple years. If you ask me he is better than Spain. LT- Dawkins LG- Creed C- Morse RG- Feliciano RT- Ford (Nsekhe Depth next year) As far as OTs in the draft.... Wirf, Wills and Adams (potential trade down to late round 1 for Adams RT), Ford goes to RG, Feliciano to LG. I don’t like the idea spending a 1st rounder on OG- especially when we have options in house...would rather see a skill position drafted there... 1
jwhit34 Posted January 10, 2020 Posted January 10, 2020 Very thorough analysis MAJ. 36 minutes ago, Aussie Joe said: I think Spain gets Re-signed but not for as much as you are saying.. I would say $7M per year for 3 years.. I’m a big fan of him this year but I don’t think they can pay him what you are suggesting... If that’s his value then I think he is getting it from someone else.. I agree that Spain will not cost $10M, if the price gets that high they let him go. There are only 10 guards in NFL making $10M. With the final landing spot for Ford in question, I think they keep Spain on short (1-2 year) deal at modest money ($5-6M) which put him in range of comparable players in the league. He made $1.9 million in his last year with Tenn. and $2 million with Bills and he's 29 years old. The way Beane went about re-building the line gives insight on how he values the various positions. They used a high draft pick for Dawkins (LT) and spent a lot on a center. The guard positions they went quantity and middling quality (Long, Spain, Feliciano). If Ford ends up being better inside that gives them value on his rookie contract and buys them time to see how he develops, that is why Beane hedged in PC and part of the reason he said they like his versatility. So they have fair value in Feliciano, could get very good value if Ford is at G and then let's see what they value RT at.
DJB Posted January 10, 2020 Posted January 10, 2020 Good break down man. I'd love to see Spain signed, Long cut and Ford to the bench as a backup G. Spend some $$$ and get a real RT or draft one high and move Neskhe as the swing T.
ghostwriter Posted January 10, 2020 Posted January 10, 2020 I’d rather bump Ford into LG, sign a solid starting RT and let Nsekhe be our swing tackle. Think you do that and our line is all set. 1
wppete Posted January 10, 2020 Posted January 10, 2020 I think you Bring back Spain and Long and draft a young stud. 1
Buffalo Junction Posted January 10, 2020 Posted January 10, 2020 I can’t see them sending Ford to the bench. They might very well move him inside, but he played all year despite there being a decent option at RT. I agree that Spain is the lynchpin for what they do with the Oline. If they can get him to resign at a decent price I think we’ll likely see the same line return and the backups move around. If Spain walks in FA I think they’ll bring in a RT, bump Ford inside and either retain Long or draft a backup. The possibility of a Morse injury is real though. I might be the only person with this view, but I don’t think our run blocking suffered with the interior being Spain, Feliciano, and Ford. It seemed that they were actually more aggressive as a unit with that combination. That’s where Longs value shows up though.... If that ends up happening they still only need to dress Long to backup C and G. The versatility might be worth the price when you can only dress so many players, BUT.... that might change if a new CBA gets hammered out this year.
Aussie Joe Posted January 10, 2020 Posted January 10, 2020 (edited) 32 minutes ago, jwhit34 said: I agree that Spain will not cost $10M, if the price gets that high they let him go. There are only 10 guards in NFL making $10M. With the final landing spot for Ford in question, I think they keep Spain on short (1-2 year) deal at modest money ($5-6M) which put him in range of comparable players in the league. He made $1.9 million in his last year with Tenn. and $2 million with Bills and he's 29 years old. I don’t think Spain signs another 1 year deal ... he has already done that.. He needs to make some bank with his next contract because he isn’t getting any younger.. Edited January 10, 2020 by Aussie Joe 1
Luka Posted January 10, 2020 Posted January 10, 2020 Hakeem Adeniji would be an interesting pick just because he provides flexibility, which is usually something that is very important with backup offensive linemen. I also feel like those stats you're using are greatly influenced by running Gore for no gain numerous times this year. Devin had the highest YPC of all running backs, definitely says something about the line. Pass protection in this offense is tough also, with very slow developing route trees and poor play calling leading to third and long quite often. That is to say, I think the line remains the same outside of a rookie in the mid to later rounds.
CEN-CAL17 Posted January 10, 2020 Posted January 10, 2020 38 minutes ago, JaCrispy said: I don’t like the idea spending a 1st rounder on OG- especially when we have options in house...would rather see a skill position drafted there... Options in house will be like 5x the cap space when you can basically improve the OL next year with 3 on their rookie contracts. OL improves with less Cap hit, Extend Dawkins and Feliciano. Vs Giving Conklin $10M per, Spain $6-7M per. Thing is nobody knows what the FO wants in Ford.
atlbillsfan1975 Posted January 10, 2020 Posted January 10, 2020 Good write up. Thank you for the information and time spent. I really like Spain but with Dawkins as well. I see it as a package deal. I agree Spain is the most important FA to be signed from the current list of Bills FA. The tandem of Dawkins and Spain make up a solid left side of the line. Beane will try to get Spain locked up, I trust him with the numbers. They will draw a line and my hope is Spain will come back. Ford will be given another year to show what he can do. Growth happens all the time from year one to year two. Ford was a second round pick, his first year was inconsistent. I think he will get better. Beane has set it up pretty well. Feliciano allows for Ford to stay outside for another year. If Ford doesn’t work out at tackle he slides in. Feliciano walks in 2021, unless Spain hasn’t been signed this offseason. I expect Spain to be signed and then another Vet Swing tackle to be signed. And a 5th or 6th round pick to be used on a tackle to develop for a year. Hopefully be the swing tackle or starter if needed in 2021. 1 1
MAJBobby Posted January 10, 2020 Author Posted January 10, 2020 Kinda backs up my thinking on Spain that is a huge compliment from Morse.
ndirish1978 Posted January 10, 2020 Posted January 10, 2020 Problem for Ford is that Spain and Feliciano are both better than him and I'm not buying him as a T. 1
Formerly Allan in MD Posted January 11, 2020 Posted January 11, 2020 Ford is too slow as a tackle. Move him inside, please.
GreggTX Posted January 11, 2020 Posted January 11, 2020 (edited) Those stats strongly support my claim that OL, not WR, should be our top priority this offseason. A long-armed WR that wins a lot of 50-50 balls would be a big help, but that OL still needs a couple of very big upgrades. The real question again comes down to this. Can Beane spot talent in the draft? He hit a HR in the 3rd with Singletary, but overall, his draft day success has not been very impressive. I hope he has a steep learning curve so that he can avoid his past mistakes. His selections in rounds 1 and 2 have left me disappointed. 6 hours ago, ndirish1978 said: Problem for Ford is that Spain and Feliciano are both better than him and I'm not buying him as a T. I think Ford has a realistic shot at unseating Feliciano if he takes the next step in year 2. Feliciano is a shade below average. Spain is clearly better. I'd like to see us draft an OT in the 1st and a possession receiver in the 2nd (Pittman?) I haven't started looking at the draft class yet, though. We'll see how that plays out. Edited January 11, 2020 by GreggTX
Buffalo Barbarian Posted January 11, 2020 Posted January 11, 2020 (edited) 14 hours ago, CEN-CAL17 said: I am all on board with beefing up the OL.... When it comes to resigning Spain, but putting Ford on the bench for depth I disagree.... My player to watch is C/OG Creed Humphrey. Best C in college football, if he declares hes a round 1 lock. Big time Wrestler as well, Smart and Tough! With Morse having health concerns, missing time here and there, Creed could be the future anchor in the next couple years. If you ask me he is better than Spain. LT- Dawkins LG- Creed C- Morse RG- Feliciano RT- Ford (Nsekhe Depth next year) As far as OTs in the draft.... Wirf, Wills and Adams (potential trade down to late round 1 for Adams RT), Ford goes to RG, Feliciano to LG. id go with that, but Rather go with Conklin over Ford at RT, unless we draft a real Tackle prospect instead of guards we hope can become tackles. Edited January 11, 2020 by Buffalo Barbarian
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