Joe B All-22 from Houston playoff game

[YoloinOhio]

5 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

No, nor do I. I usually just stop reading after the article finishes and don't bother with the grades.

Same. I like the write ups, as they provide a perspective that I don’t have as I just watch the broadcast. Aside from that, I used to look at the grades but realized they don’t mean anything as I don’t know how he arrives at them. 

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

24 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

The fumble was a huge momentum swing, but that was not all on Allen IMHO.

Sure Hap. But I’m sure there is some technique to help him there. Yeah in general be it blockers or pass catchers, if feel like extending the play needs to be a point of emphasis next camp. 
 

Personally i think this loss and all the stupid miscues might be the best thing for the growth of this team.
 

The journeymen vets just in it for a paycheck maybe won’t take it hard, but I have a feeling the young core will grow from this outcome more than any other. 
 

The close loses seem to drive  more introspection than the lopsided ones. 

Edited January 10, 2020 by Over 29 years of fanhood

[Hapless Bills Fan]

43 minutes ago, Over 29 years of fanhood said:

Sure Hap. But I’m sure there is some technique to help him there. Yeah in general be it blockers or pass catchers, if feel like extending the play needs to be a point of emphasis next camp.

 

I'm not an expert, but yes, that's what I meant by saying elsewhere that Josh shouldn't have had the ball where it was, gripped as it was, but the defender shouldn't have been near it either.    Josh was holding the ball in a throwing grip, but at the numbers and in front of his body, ready to transition to a running grip.  His second hand was off the ball. 

 

In that grip, the QB's hand is on the top of the ball (what will be the back of the ball when transitioned to throwing position) and the ball is vulnerable to a leverage hit at the bottom.  Down and in front of his body is good, it means someone can't attack his raised arm from behind, but as far as I know, there's essentially no way to have the ball in a throwing grip and keep it from being leveraged out by that kind of hit with 258 lbs of Flying Fortress behind it (if you have a football, pick it up in a throwing grip, hold it with the long axis vertical, and try punching the bottom - you'll see what I mean).  If he had his 2nd hand on the ball he has a much better chance to protect it, but it's harder to run that way.  But the ball could be in closer to his body with his 2nd hand on it I think.

 

There's also an element of pocket awareness.  If he stays behind D-Dawk's great big comfy butt (picture on L), he gets an extra fraction of a second to throw and Dawkins has position on Mercilus.  But, he continues forward about 3-4 yds (picture on R), which Mercilus can see and adjust to, but Dawkins needs super-feet to achieve with a position of ordinary blocking leverage. (Dawkins also has some options I think, and I do loop back to "3 of you?  C'mon Man!")

 

Anyway, for Allen, it's fundamentally a "Should I Stay or Should I Go Now?" issue where Allen needs to be more decisive about if he's going to stay or go.  If he's gonna go, tuck the ball away safely.  If he's gonna stay, stay in the shadow of Dawkins' butt. (The LOS is the 47 yd line and Allen is still 4 yds behind it)

 

 

Then there's the issue of Nsekhe, who has probably held Watt and wrestled him to the ground and is getting up looking at the ref with a "see mom No hands!" posture of innocence.  I think if Allen heroically completes that play, it gets called back for holding - which begs the question, "if it's a hold before the pass, isn't it a hold before the fumble?"  But that's a tale for another day.

[ILBillsfan]

1 hour ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Here there's a genuine Allen issue.  Deep middle was his worst throw this year.  Now in the Nextgen summary chart it shows worse than it is because they use passer rating and that's where he threw a bunch of picks early in the year.  But essentially, teams have been daring Josh to hit the deep post route because he hasn't shown that he can.  He needs to fix this during the off-season.

 

 

 

I haven’t looked at the data but this would make sense as it was not attacked all year.  Didn’t know if it was coordinate thing or QB thing as it’s been open a lot and it is where most TE’s live 

 

hopefully it becomes an area to attack as that is exactly the area attacked by the Ravens 

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

5 minutes ago, ILBillsfan said:

I haven’t looked at the data but this would make sense as it was not attacked all year.  Didn’t know if it was coordinate thing or QB thing as it’s been open a lot and it is where most TE’s live 

 

hopefully it becomes an area to attack as that is exactly the area attacked by the Ravens 

 
Isn’t deep post is more a wr route to split cover 2 safeties? 

[Coach Tuesday]

1 hour ago, colin said:

i'm a broken record on this, but i'm convinced our overwrought goofy O has guys trying to learn and thus do too much, without any bread and butter plays everyone on the team can execute perfectly. 

 

You're spot on here.  I asked elsewhere, "What is our identity on offense?" and got zero responses.  Daboll talks about being "multiple" which seems to mean, equally bad at everything, not great at anything.  Allen will be better for surviving all of this, but I suspect his talent won't truly shine until he gets to work with a better, sounder OC and a simplified approach.

Edited January 10, 2020 by Coach Tuesday

[Hapless Bills Fan]

9 minutes ago, ILBillsfan said:

I haven’t looked at the data but this would make sense as it was not attacked all year.  Didn’t know if it was coordinate thing or QB thing as it’s been open a lot and it is where most TE’s live 

 

hopefully it becomes an area to attack as that is exactly the area attacked by the Ravens 

 

Hmmm I'm not sure about the idea of TE living deep middle? 

 

But the most straightforward Blitz 0 beater is max protect and a deep post because you know there's no safety there.  Allen must improve in his ability to hit those.  Keep in mind this is a "passer rating" chart so it is heavily weighted by INTs., but the message is clear - don't worry about the deep middle with Allen, just take away the "Honey Spot".

 

A complicating factor is that for a team with really good DE (like the Texans) our protections seem very vulnerable to showing a rush, but dropping many of the guys back into middle coverage to smother that "Honey Spot" while rushing from both sides where you get a DE on a TE or RB while half the actual OL blocks air.

 

Allen has got to fix this in the off-season.

 

[blacklabel]

14 hours ago, N.Y. Orangeman said:

I tried to ask him about it once and his answer wasn’t satisfactory

 

What was his answer?

[ILBillsfan]

16 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Hmmm I'm not sure about the idea of TE living deep middle? 

 

But the most straightforward Blitz 0 beater is max protect and a deep post because you know there's no safety there.  Allen must improve in his ability to hit those.  Keep in mind this is a "passer rating" chart so it is heavily weighted by INTs., but the message is clear - don't worry about the deep middle with Allen, just take away the "Honey Spot".

 

A complicating factor is that for a team with really good DE (like the Texans) our protections seem very vulnerable to showing a rush, but dropping many of the guys back into middle coverage to smother that "Honey Spot" while rushing from both sides where you get a DE on a TE or RB while half the actual OL blocks air.

 

Allen has got to fix this in the off-season.

 

if it came across as deep middle it was to be in the 10-20 yard range as it was open in OT and for a lot of the game. I get he deep middle form your original post but i'm referring to the mid middle

25 minutes ago, Over 29 years of fanhood said:

 
Isn’t deep post is more a wr route to split cover 2 safeties? 

i'm referring to the 10-20 yard range not the deep middle

Edited January 10, 2020 by ILBillsfan

[Ethan in Cleveland]

2 hours ago, stony said:

Sometimes it's difficult to extrapolate blocking assignments, specific responsibilities etc for individual players in the modern NFL because plays seem so complex at times (for me, anyways).  But watching that reply 10x will make you wanna pull your hair out.  Sometimes you just need to smash the guy in front of you.   

 

In a game of a million "what ifs," this one takes the cake. 

Love Knox but he blew that play

[colin]

16 minutes ago, Coach Tuesday said:

 

You're spot on here.  I asked elsewhere, "What is our identity on offense?" and got zero responses.  Daboll talks about being "multiple" which seems to mean, equally bad at everything, not great at anything.  Allen will be better for surviving all of this, but I suspect his talent won't truly shine until he gets to work with a better, sounder OC and a simplified approach.

 

so two things

 

1.  while a couple of great O's run real high tech schemes (KC comes to mind, but fat andy is a wizard at this) if you look at teams like NE, Baltimore, and even Houston, you see really really similar plays run out of several formations, and different plays run out of the exact same formation.  the exact same formation lets you make the D pick their poison (OBV) but running the exact same play out of different formations gives you free reps (without the D knowing) at your bread and butter.  we just MAKE ME CRAZY seeing all these goofy mish mash mix ups without any results.  we go max protect w smith and the fullback, but we have yet to run effectively out of it, so we ain't fooling anyone.  the fact that we waited until the post season to figure out ways to get the RB the ball on screens and allen the ball on sweeps was sad.  the biggest issue we have on O is that when we have success, it isn't repeatable because we are simply not consistent.

 

2.  i watch a lot of analytic videos and all 22 stuff.  i like what these guys do and it's interesting, but something has always bothered me about them, and i couldn't quite figure it out.  they tend to be coach's pets.  i remember guys (often related to the coach, or a coach anyhow) on the team would say "if we ran it right how it was drawn up we'd have made that first".  this is when the whole friggen team know the opposition had a drop on that play and it wouldn't work.  these analytic guys just sort of take for granted execution at every level, and then key in one or two things which they say made the difference.  that's fine, but they miss the plot when you have a TE blocking a pro bowl rusher on 3rd and long, or you don't have an outside WR who can get open or whatever.  PFF are the biggest squad of never played and just make up nerdery dorks ever.

[dave mcbride]

11 hours ago, Ethan in Portland said:

The line fell apart in the 4th qtr and overtime. Singletary missed blitz pick up. Allen choked. Just about everything unraveled.  

That is on the coaching staff. 

On to next year. Schedule will be tougher but roster will be better too.

 

[yungmack]

16 hours ago, JR in Pittsburgh said:

No surprise re Allen. You could make this conclusion watching the game in real time. He reverted to hero ball.

 

it didn’t help that Daboll refused to run Singletary a single time in OT, or even really line a RB up in the backfield. 

In Josh's defense, he had to play hero ball. When play call after play call has 5 wides and an empty backfield facing 8 in the box, it's just fortunate he wasn't annihilated. 

[Miyagi-Do Karate]

27 minutes ago, yungmack said:

In Josh's defense, he had to play hero ball. When play call after play call has 5 wides and an empty backfield facing 8 in the box, it's just fortunate he wasn't annihilated. 

exactly right— plenty of blame to go around. 
 

I was hoping McD would call a TO in the 4th or OT and regroup with Josh and Daboll. Josh was playing out of control, and it would have actually helped to go to a run heavy set and try to reestablish the run with Singletary. That would have helped reign Josh in some. 
 

josh was playing great early because they were running well and throwing quick passes.  He came apart when they went empty and put the game on his back. 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

4 hours ago, ILBillsfan said:

if it came across as deep middle it was to be in the 10-20 yard range as it was open in OT and for a lot of the game. I get he deep middle form your original post but i'm referring to the mid middle

i'm referring to the 10-20 yard range not the deep middle

 

That range, yes, should be Money for TE and Josh can hit that.  But for some reason it's not in our vocabulary much.

[Green Lightning]

On 1/9/2020 at 9:15 PM, CincyBillsFan said:

 

 

On 1/9/2020 at 9:15 PM, CincyBillsFan said:

 

They did?  I'm a simple football fan and in spite of all that went before if either Knox or Morse make that block on a perfectly called QB sweep Allen possibly takes it to house.  Or at worst we're in FG range to win it in OT.

 

My problem with Joe B is that he often can't see the forest for the trees.  Take a look at how other young QB's fared in their first playoff game.  Those stats have been posted all over 2BD the last few days.  A lot of great QB's had ugly first playoff games - even in games their teams won.  The bottom line is that the Bills asked to much of Allen.  Which is both good & bad.  It's good because they were confident he could handle it.  It was bad because when he had a bad play he lost it for a couple of series at a crucial point in the game.

 

And why is Joe B surprised that after the fumble Allen hesitated on some of his throws in order to make sure he didn't turn the ball over again?  I mean this was his FIRST 4th quarter in a playoff game and his FIRST ever OT game.    On the drive that should have won the game for the Bills but for a BS penalty on Ford and missed blocks on a perfectly called QB sweep I saw Allen get his feet back under him and make two great throws to gain 1st downs on 3rd & long. 

 

The fact is that this was as classic a TEAM loss as you're ever going to see in a close game that goes to OT.  And as I've posted elsewhere, if I had to choose the top 5 plays that lost the game Allen's play would NOT make the list.  Here's the list off the top of my head and tell me I'm wrong:

 

1)  missed block on QB sweep

2)  ref calling a blindside PF on Ford

3)  ref NOT calling targeting on the Texan who drilled Allen in the head on the QB sweep.

4)  the defense allowing Houston to convert a 3rd & 18 in OT

5)  Milano not wrapping up on Watson for a sack on that Texan FG drive that won the game.

6)  Brown not staying in bounds on the failed toe tap catch that would have given us first & goal at the 2.

7)  Duke not making a tough catch for a TD at the end of the first half.

 

Look. More then 5 plays and not one involved Allen doing something bad.  Go figure. 

 

 

Ultimately, all losses are team losses and there's plenty of blame to go around. But please don't tell me Josh didn't get rattled and his play and decisions take a downturn after the fumble.  And Daboll's play calling in OT was just awful. It's not out of bounds to criticize Josh. He's our guy and if we're going to take the next step seeing him get the yips was concerning. Only year two, but Joe B's observations were accurate and stats telling.The good thing about Josh is his focus on improving. He starts hitting long balls and better seeing where pressure is coming from we'll be golden. Next year ( I can't imagine Beane won't deliver) he'll have a few more playmakers and some more help upfront. As for Daboll, when the games on the line I want to see Devin behind Josh and not and empty backfield  with Pat DeMarco split out wide creating all those "mismatches." Go Bills.

Edited January 11, 2020 by Green Lightning

[CincyBillsFan]

2 hours ago, Green Lightning said:

 

Ultimately, all losses are team losses and there's plenty of blame to go around. But please don't tell me Josh didn't get rattled and his play and decisions take a downturn after the fumble.  And Daboll's play calling in OT was just awful. It's not out of bounds to criticize Josh. He's our guy and if we're going to take the next step seeing him get the yips was concerning. Only year two, but Joe B's observations were accurate and stats telling.The good thing about Josh is his focus on improving. He starts hitting long balls and better seeing where pressure is coming from we'll be golden. Next year ( I can't imagine Beane won't deliver) he'll have a few more playmakers and some more help upfront. As for Daboll, when the games on the line I want to see Devin behind Josh and not and empty backfield  with Pat DeMarco split out wide creating all those "mismatches." Go Bills.

 

I have no problem with honest and fair criticisms of Allen.  He has much to improve and warrants criticism. 

 

And I've posted on other threads that Allen did in fact get rattled after the fumble but we're only talking two series here.  In the end he got the Bills into position to tie the game with a FG.

 

And while I consider myself agnostic on Daboll (there's a lot to like and a lot not to like) his play calling in OT was fine.  The QB sweep call should have won the game but for an egregious missed block.  In fact the Bills were driving so I have to assume Daboll's play calls were at least okay here.  And after Allen took a wicked shot to the head because of the missed block I'm not sure he was operating at 100%.

 

But judging Daboll's OT play calling is hampered by the fact that the Bills got only one possession in OT. 

 

Like you I'm confident that Bean will get Allen more play makers and shore up the O-line.  I'm also confident that Allen will continue to improve because he'll work hard to improve and he seeks out the coaching in the off season that enables him to improve. 

 

I also think that going from years 2 to 3 and 3 to 4 are where you see the biggest improvements in most young QB's. So we do have reason to be optimistic.

 

 

 

 

[Green Lightning]

3 hours ago, CincyBillsFan said:

 

I have no problem with honest and fair criticisms of Allen.  He has much to improve and warrants criticism. 

 

And I've posted on other threads that Allen did in fact get rattled after the fumble but we're only talking two series here.  In the end he got the Bills into position to tie the game with a FG.

 

And while I consider myself agnostic on Daboll (there's a lot to like and a lot not to like) his play calling in OT was fine.  The QB sweep call should have won the game but for an egregious missed block.  In fact the Bills were driving so I have to assume Daboll's play calls were at least okay here.  And after Allen took a wicked shot to the head because of the missed block I'm not sure he was operating at 100%.

 

But judging Daboll's OT play calling is hampered by the fact that the Bills got only one possession in OT. 

 

Like you I'm confident that Bean will get Allen more play makers and shore up the O-line.  I'm also confident that Allen will continue to improve because he'll work hard to improve and he seeks out the coaching in the off season that enables him to improve. 

 

I also think that going from years 2 to 3 and 3 to 4 are where you see the biggest improvements in most young QB's. So we do have reason to be optimistic.

 

 

 

 

On your last point that's my thinking and hope! It's hard to keep in tune with that timeline when you see Mahomes, Jackson and to some extent Watson have these amazing breakout years. Then again there is  Mayfield who came out blazing and then completely sucked the next year. I'd rather see a steady progression then a boom then bust. As I said if Josh can read pressure better and hit some of those long throws next year were gold. Fingers crossed!

[CincyBillsFan]

3 hours ago, Green Lightning said:

On your last point that's my thinking and hope! It's hard to keep in tune with that timeline when you see Mahomes, Jackson and to some extent Watson have these amazing breakout years. Then again there is  Mayfield who came out blazing and then completely sucked the next year. I'd rather see a steady progression then a boom then bust. As I said if Josh can read pressure better and hit some of those long throws next year were gold. Fingers crossed!

 

Mahomes is a modern day Marino - a complete outlier at QB.  Marino threw for over 5,000 yards in his 2nd season.  And you can't look at Mahomes success without considering the extraordinary talent he has surrounding him on offense.  You would be hard pressed to find a QB with a better collection of play making skill players then Mahomes has.

 

Jackson is unusual in that he went to a playoff caliber team that retooled it's entire offensive philosophy & talent pool to match his strengths at QB.  I don't think another team in the NFL would have done this.  And this is not a knock on Jackson who I believe should be the NFL MVP this year but he generates no where near the numbers he did with the Ravens on any other NFL team.

 

As for Watson, I believe that Allen is on a similar timeline.  This is Watson's 3rd year.  Last year in his 1st playoff game Watson had a similar game to Allen's including a loss.  IMO Watson is still improving as evidenced by his struggles in the first half against the Bills. 

 

 

 

 

[GreggTX]

Obviously Josh Allen has a very long way to go if he's ever going to take this team to a championship. Let's just hope he continues to develop. Give him a top echelon OL and another solid possession WR and let's see where we stand, but I'm still a very long way from convinced that he's going to be our franchise QB.

 

Singletary is exceptional, so let's amplify his effect on the offense by adding a couple elite blockers in front of him. That will make Allen's job much easier and we won't have to rely on his weak accuracy as much.

Edited January 12, 2020 by GreggTX