Position-by-position analysis of Beane’s Statements

[Dkollidas]

Listening to the press conference of both McDermott and Beane, but in particular Beane, I felt I could offer my attempt to analyze the typically cryptic GM-speak regarding the future plans for the roster this off-season on a position-by-position basis...

 

QB:

Easy enough. Josh is their guy. They believe he has it in him to be the guy. I think discussing him Beane may have slightly given away where they plan to improve the most. More on that shortly. Nothing specific said, but I’d assume Barkley is under contract and will likely stay that way.

RB: 

Singletary showed why they picked him where they did, he’s a talented starter. Gore helped Devin immensely, but unless they can’t get anyone they like in free agency or the draft that can lighten Singletary’s load, Gore won’t be back in 2020.

 

WR: I believe when discussing Allen, Beane lightly discussed their job of getting him weapons. That,  COMBINED WITH going after Antonio Brown last off-season, AND purportedly being in on AJ Green at the deadline, AND watching Allen’s desire to hit a big target like Duke Williams in the Houston game, will put the onus on management to get their guy more weapons in order to help him take that next step. Could we maybe see Williams, McKenzie & Foster all be replaced next season?

 

TE: They’re really impressed by Knox, showed a lot of potential for such a raw prospect. They’ll keep Kroft around for leadership, Sweeney and Smith will battle to be the 3rd TE suited up on game days. I expect little action at this position this off-season.

 

OT: He didn’t commit to Ford at tackle, but I believe that’s what they want. They still have Bates in the roster and will get Waddle back next season after he missed all of this year, and Nsekhe will be healthy. So there will be competition here but I believe they’re looking for Ford to have a big off-season and make a marked improvement in year 2.

 

OG: I think Spain is a guy they won’t over commit to. He was signed later in free agency last season, and there will he guys of his caliber available for the same term/cost this year as well. If he gets a multi-year deal in free agency, Buffalo will let him walk. They still have Long as a backup who can start. And I expect if they draft a player it’ll be a day 3 guy who can compete here. 
 

C- Nothing said really but I believe they’re happy with Morse and Feliciano showed he can back up in the middle when needed.

 

OL overall: I think they want to see another year of these guys together. If Spain leaves they’ll look to improve LG, but they won’t chase him for big money, multiple years.

 

Defensive end: They definitely want to add an edge rusher. That’s what I got out of it. Beane spoke to how hard elite players at the position are to acquire. It makes me believe they will attack this position in free agency as opposed to the draft. They’ll attempt to bring back Shaq on a 2-4tear deal, he’s one of their guys. But they won’t pay more than $8M or so. I think Murphy will be gone. Hughes is a player they hope to see rebound but if he doesn’t 2020 could be his last year here, hence the urgency to upgrade edge rusher. I also believe they consider Lorenzo more of an edge than LB, and that will be another reason to upgrade the position as well. They’ll basically try to get Shaq back, along with Hughes, and then try to upgrade Murphy. When they upgrade Murphy, Murphy will be cut. Johnson will challenge Mike Love for the 4th spot on the roster.
 

DT: Phillips wants to test the market. I think they believe he’ll be disappointed by what he finds. Beane spoke to guys having different ideas of their market value as opposed to their team. I think Beane has a better idea of what Jordan is worth. He didn’t make the pro bowl, wasn’t an all-pro and seemed disappointed by both. He had nice sack numbers, but for a 340lb man he gets pushed around a lot up front. I also believe he is one player that they will “have frank discussions about” as Beane alluded to.

 

LB: Edmunds & Milano are two of the guys they want to keep as part of their core, could see Milano (along with Dawkins, who I forgot to mention above) get extensions this summer. Vosean Joseph basically redshirted and will be given a chance to compete for playing time. They’ll probably bring in a cheaper veteran to be a SAM linebacker of sorts, but I wouldn’t expect any huge investment with the amount of nickel they play and their ability to line up with a “big nickel” using Siran Neal in the slot. 
 

CB: They will extend the 5th year option to Tre White. He will play out 2020 on his deal and likely sign an extension in the summer of 2021 to tack onto his 5th year. Kevin Johnson will probably be brought back unless he gets some ridiculous offer, and he will again compete with Wallace for playing time. I expect a mid-round Pick used toward this position as well.

 

S: I think they want to see if Jaquan Johnson can be solid enough at safety to eventually replace Poyer. Hyde is the more important of the two and so he will be the priority, but I believe they view Poyer as someone that they’ll need to have a discussion about, missing a couple tackles in that big game (everyone did towards the end, but Poyer looked a bit slow to the ball as well, he might’ve just been gassed though). But if Jaquan Johnson can be a viable replacement, it’s another area where they can move an expensive contract out in exchange for a rookie deal and that’s all they want to keep doing especially as Poyer gets closer to the big 3-0.

 

 

Some of this I obviously surmised without comments being specifically made about a position group, but this is my general gist on how they feel about the roster.

 

If I had to make a guess I would say

1. They will bring back Shaq.

2. Jordan Phillips tests the market, is disappointed and stays in Buffalo on a 2yr deal around $7M-$8M per year.

3. Quinton Spain leaves

4. Kevin Johnson brought back on a 2yr deal.

5. DE is pursued in free agency. Ngakoue, Beasley, Fowler, Quinn will all be targets. 
6. Receiver and offense in general will be added through free agency and the draft. Still wouldn’t count out an AJ Green trade if he is tagged by the Bengals. 

[NewEra]

Phillips gets 7-8 mill a year huh?  I don’t see it.

 

i like the rest minus adding Beasley or Fowler.  I don’t think they’ll earn the dollars they’re paid.  I like Quinn but he’s getting a little older now.  Ngakoue makes sense.  I thought kevin johnson was a nice addition and perfect #4 rotational corner.  I liked the combination of Kj and Wallace opposite Tre.  Only playing half the game kept johnson healthy.

 

i really hope Viska falls to us and we sign Derrick Henry.  I hate paying the rb big money but I think he’s the piece this offense needs.  He and shenault would do wonders 

[PaoloBillsFanFromItaly]

I will also like to add a run thumper LB to activate against teams like Eagles, Titans, Ravens.

All this "modern LB", "big nickel" stuff payed big dividents against most teams but we get exposed to the run here and there.

I hope Edumnds can acquire "run thumping" abilities in his 3rd year but I am skeptical.

[Nihilarian]

The games that showed the biggest weaknesses on this team Eagles, Patriots, Ravens, Texans.

 

The Eagles dominated both on Buffalo Bills lines...both sides of the lines need to be bigger, stronger, faster. 

 

The Ravens with that cover 0 blitz and Buffalo had no answer...Texans missed blocking assignments.

 

The Bills need a Derrick Henry type of RB and power run game.

 

Can this scouting staff find that big, tall "catch everything" special wide receiver in the draft? They missed on DK Metcalf.

 

The 2020 Buffalo Bills won't win many games if they keep forcing Josh Allen to throw 48 times a game...especially when they have a 13 point lead. 

[GunnerBill]

I think you are largely right. I don't think Jordan is coming back though. He is getting more than that on the market. 

 

I also think they still value Poyer. I would expect his contract to be re-done this offseason. 

 

The big contract issues that I think you should expect to be resolved before free agency are:

 

- Poyer to get an extension and a pay rise.

- Shaq Lawson to be re-signed. 

- Dion Dawkins to be signed to a long term deal.  

[Dkollidas]

2 hours ago, NewEra said:

Phillips gets 7-8 mill a year huh?  I don’t see it.

 

i like the rest minus adding Beasley or Fowler.  I don’t think they’ll earn the dollars they’re paid.  I like Quinn but he’s getting a little older now.  Ngakoue makes sense.  I thought kevin johnson was a nice addition and perfect #4 rotational corner.  I liked the combination of Kj and Wallace opposite Tre.  Only playing half the game kept johnson healthy.

 

i really hope Viska falls to us and we sign Derrick Henry.  I hate paying the rb big money but I think he’s the piece this offense needs.  He and shenault would do wonders 

I would argue Phillips could earn that much. Maybe it won’t be with us, but who knows. And I like Henry as well, but paying him $15M+ per year just sounds like a bad investment. Running backs are literally plug and play. I think they draft another back in the 3rd or 4th round. Najee Harris? Cam Akers? AJ Dillon? They’re not Derrick Henry but they could help compliment Singletary to give us a top-5 rushing attack. 
 

I wholeheartedly agree on Shenault though. Really is love them to go after AJ Green AND draft Viska as well.

[JoPoy88]

2 hours ago, NewEra said:

Phillips gets 7-8 mill a year huh?  I don’t see it.

 

i like the rest minus adding Beasley or Fowler.  I don’t think they’ll earn the dollars they’re paid.  I like Quinn but he’s getting a little older now.  Ngakoue makes sense.  I thought kevin johnson was a nice addition and perfect #4 rotational corner.  I liked the combination of Kj and Wallace opposite Tre.  Only playing half the game kept johnson healthy.

 

i really hope Viska falls to us and we sign Derrick Henry.  I hate paying the rb big money but I think he’s the piece this offense needs.  He and shenault would do wonders 

you’re cracked if you don’t think Phillips will command something like that this offseason. Not saying the bills would or should match, but an offer like that will happen. Look at the DL numbers bro.

[Dkollidas]

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

I think you are largely right. I don't think Jordan is coming back though. He is getting more than that on the market. 

 

I also think they still value Poyer. I would expect his contract to be re-done this offseason. 

 

The big contract issues that I think you should expect to be resolved before free agency are:

 

- Poyer to get an extension and a pay rise.

- Shaq Lawson to be re-signed. 

- Dion Dawkins to be signed to a long term deal.  

I just get the feeling they won’t be on the same page as Poyer in terms. Just a guess.

Edited January 8, 2020 by Dkollidas

[JoPoy88]

5 minutes ago, Dkollidas said:

I just get the feeling they won’t be on the same page as Poyer in terms. Just a guess.

Poyer’s under contract. Why are we worried about him this year?

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

3 hours ago, Dkollidas said:

Listening to the press conference of both McDermott and Beane, but in particular Beane, I felt I could offer my attempt to analyze the typically cryptic GM-speak regarding the future plans for the roster this off-season on a position-by-position basis...

 

QB:

Easy enough. Josh is their guy. They believe he has it in him to be the guy. I think discussing him Beane may have slightly given away where they plan to improve the most. More on that shortly. Nothing specific said, but I’d assume Barkley is under contract and will likely stay that way.

RB: 

Singletary showed why they picked him where they did, he’s a talented starter. Gore helped Devin immensely, but unless they can’t get anyone they like in free agency or the draft that can lighten Singletary’s load, Gore won’t be back in 2020.

 

WR: I believe when discussing Allen, Beane lightly discussed their job of getting him weapons. That,  COMBINED WITH going after Antonio Brown last off-season, AND purportedly being in on AJ Green at the deadline, AND watching Allen’s desire to hit a big target like Duke Williams in the Houston game, will put the onus on management to get their guy more weapons in order to help him take that next step. Could we maybe see Williams, McKenzie & Foster all be replaced next season?

 

TE: They’re really impressed by Knox, showed a lot of potential for such a raw prospect. They’ll keep Kroft around for leadership, Sweeney and Smith will battle to be the 3rd TE suited up on game days. I expect little action at this position this off-season.

 

OT: He didn’t commit to Ford at tackle, but I believe that’s what they want. They still have Bates in the roster and will get Waddle back next season after he missed all of this year, and Nsekhe will be healthy. So there will be competition here but I believe they’re looking for Ford to have a big off-season and make a marked improvement in year 2.

 

OG: I think Spain is a guy they won’t over commit to. He was signed later in free agency last season, and there will he guys of his caliber available for the same term/cost this year as well. If he gets a multi-year deal in free agency, Buffalo will let him walk. They still have Long as a backup who can start. And I expect if they draft a player it’ll be a day 3 guy who can compete here. 
 

C- Nothing said really but I believe they’re happy with Morse and Feliciano showed he can back up in the middle when needed.

 

OL overall: I think they want to see another year of these guys together. If Spain leaves they’ll look to improve LG, but they won’t chase him for big money, multiple years.

 

Defensive end: They definitely want to add an edge rusher. That’s what I got out of it. Beane spoke to how hard elite players at the position are to acquire. It makes me believe they will attack this position in free agency as opposed to the draft. They’ll attempt to bring back Shaq on a 2-4tear deal, he’s one of their guys. But they won’t pay more than $8M or so. I think Murphy will be gone. Hughes is a player they hope to see rebound but if he doesn’t 2020 could be his last year here, hence the urgency to upgrade edge rusher. I also believe they consider Lorenzo more of an edge than LB, and that will be another reason to upgrade the position as well. They’ll basically try to get Shaq back, along with Hughes, and then try to upgrade Murphy. When they upgrade Murphy, Murphy will be cut. Johnson will challenge Mike Love for the 4th spot on the roster.
 

DT: Phillips wants to test the market. I think they believe he’ll be disappointed by what he finds. Beane spoke to guys having different ideas of their market value as opposed to their team. I think Beane has a better idea of what Jordan is worth. He didn’t make the pro bowl, wasn’t an all-pro and seemed disappointed by both. He had nice sack numbers, but for a 340lb man he gets pushed around a lot up front. I also believe he is one player that they will “have frank discussions about” as Beane alluded to.

 

LB: Edmunds & Milano are two of the guys they want to keep as part of their core, could see Milano (along with Dawkins, who I forgot to mention above) get extensions this summer. Vosean Joseph basically redshirted and will be given a chance to compete for playing time. They’ll probably bring in a cheaper veteran to be a SAM linebacker of sorts, but I wouldn’t expect any huge investment with the amount of nickel they play and their ability to line up with a “big nickel” using Siran Neal in the slot. 
 

CB: They will extend the 5th year option to Tre White. He will play out 2020 on his deal and likely sign an extension in the summer of 2021 to tack onto his 5th year. Kevin Johnson will probably be brought back unless he gets some ridiculous offer, and he will again compete with Wallace for playing time. I expect a mid-round Pick used toward this position as well.

 

S: I think they want to see if Jaquan Johnson can be solid enough at safety to eventually replace Poyer. Hyde is the more important of the two and so he will be the priority, but I believe they view Poyer as someone that they’ll need to have a discussion about, missing a couple tackles in that big game (everyone did towards the end, but Poyer looked a bit slow to the ball as well, he might’ve just been gassed though). But if Jaquan Johnson can be a viable replacement, it’s another area where they can move an expensive contract out in exchange for a rookie deal and that’s all they want to keep doing especially as Poyer gets closer to the big 3-0.

 

 

Some of this I obviously surmised without comments being specifically made about a position group, but this is my general gist on how they feel about the roster.

 

If I had to make a guess I would say

1. They will bring back Shaq.

2. Jordan Phillips tests the market, is disappointed and stays in Buffalo on a 2yr deal around $7M-$8M per year.

3. Quinton Spain leaves

4. Kevin Johnson brought back on a 2yr deal.

5. DE is pursued in free agency. Ngakoue, Beasley, Fowler, Quinn will all be targets. 
6. Receiver and offense in general will be added through free agency and the draft. Still wouldn’t count out an AJ Green trade if he is tagged by the Bengals. 

Nice takes... all makes sense to me.... except AJ Green unless it’s a cheap trade. 

[njbuff]

Don’t forget that the Bills were in on getting Clowney and if he hits FA.........

 

the Bills will be BIG players for him.

 

McBeane sees Clowney as a perfect fit for this D.

[GunnerBill]

48 minutes ago, JoPoy88 said:

Poyer’s under contract. Why are we worried about him this year?

 

I think a holdout is coming. He almost held out last year and he is being significantly under paid.

[atlbillsfan1975]

52 minutes ago, JoPoy88 said:

Poyer’s under contract. Why are we worried about him this year?

There is some grumblings and rumors that a holdout might be coming. His wife tweeted something out about him being underpaid. She quickly deleted it. 
 

I can honestly say I trust Beane. whatever he and McDermott decide together is best for the team is good with me.

[Giuseppe Tognarelli]

Very good post.

[Seoulofstone]

   The problem with letting guys like Shaq go and cutting guys like Murphy is that if they replace them through FA they won't get a comp pick and likely they will be paying their replacement a similar amount to what they ask.

  If they draft a DE R1, then they will get a second tier WR and vice versa. So how do the Bills get a DE they want? 

 I was looking at overthecap.com and the guys at the bottom are going to have to make some hard choices. Players like Everson Griffin can save 13 mill against the cap by being cut. Jags have Calais Campbell, Ngakoue and Josh Allen. People expect them to let go Ngakoue (because that's what they want for their team), but it's more likely that 33year old Campbell is let go. This is where the late round picks can come in handy. If the Bills were to offer a 4th or fifth in exchange for Griffin or Campbell they wouldn t need to compete for them in FA and they wouldn't count against the comp pick formula.

 

Edited January 8, 2020 by Seoulofstone

[Pete]

45 minutes ago, njbuff said:

Don’t forget that the Bills were in on getting Clowney and if he hits FA.........

 

the Bills will be BIG players for him.

 

McBeane sees Clowney as a perfect fit for this D.

Clowney and Mathew Slater would be my top FA priorities.  Clowney would replace Lorax.  Slater is the greatest special teamer not named Steve Tasker of all time.  Special teams need much improvement

[njbuff]

4 minutes ago, Pete said:

Clowney and Mathew Slater would be my top FA priorities.  Clowney would replace Lorax.  Slater is the greatest special teamer not named Steve Tasker of all time.  Special teams need much improvement

Bennie Thompson and Reyna Thompson were all time great ST’s as well as Tasker and Slater.

[Buffalo716]

5 hours ago, Dkollidas said:

Listening to the press conference of both McDermott and Beane, but in particular Beane, I felt I could offer my attempt to analyze the typically cryptic GM-speak regarding the future plans for the roster this off-season on a position-by-position basis...

 

QB:

Easy enough. Josh is their guy. They believe he has it in him to be the guy. I think discussing him Beane may have slightly given away where they plan to improve the most. More on that shortly. Nothing specific said, but I’d assume Barkley is under contract and will likely stay that way.

RB: 

Singletary showed why they picked him where they did, he’s a talented starter. Gore helped Devin immensely, but unless they can’t get anyone they like in free agency or the draft that can lighten Singletary’s load, Gore won’t be back in 2020.

 

WR: I believe when discussing Allen, Beane lightly discussed their job of getting him weapons. That,  COMBINED WITH going after Antonio Brown last off-season, AND purportedly being in on AJ Green at the deadline, AND watching Allen’s desire to hit a big target like Duke Williams in the Houston game, will put the onus on management to get their guy more weapons in order to help him take that next step. Could we maybe see Williams, McKenzie & Foster all be replaced next season?

 

TE: They’re really impressed by Knox, showed a lot of potential for such a raw prospect. They’ll keep Kroft around for leadership, Sweeney and Smith will battle to be the 3rd TE suited up on game days. I expect little action at this position this off-season.

 

OT: He didn’t commit to Ford at tackle, but I believe that’s what they want. They still have Bates in the roster and will get Waddle back next season after he missed all of this year, and Nsekhe will be healthy. So there will be competition here but I believe they’re looking for Ford to have a big off-season and make a marked improvement in year 2.

 

OG: I think Spain is a guy they won’t over commit to. He was signed later in free agency last season, and there will he guys of his caliber available for the same term/cost this year as well. If he gets a multi-year deal in free agency, Buffalo will let him walk. They still have Long as a backup who can start. And I expect if they draft a player it’ll be a day 3 guy who can compete here. 
 

C- Nothing said really but I believe they’re happy with Morse and Feliciano showed he can back up in the middle when needed.

 

OL overall: I think they want to see another year of these guys together. If Spain leaves they’ll look to improve LG, but they won’t chase him for big money, multiple years.

 

Defensive end: They definitely want to add an edge rusher. That’s what I got out of it. Beane spoke to how hard elite players at the position are to acquire. It makes me believe they will attack this position in free agency as opposed to the draft. They’ll attempt to bring back Shaq on a 2-4tear deal, he’s one of their guys. But they won’t pay more than $8M or so. I think Murphy will be gone. Hughes is a player they hope to see rebound but if he doesn’t 2020 could be his last year here, hence the urgency to upgrade edge rusher. I also believe they consider Lorenzo more of an edge than LB, and that will be another reason to upgrade the position as well. They’ll basically try to get Shaq back, along with Hughes, and then try to upgrade Murphy. When they upgrade Murphy, Murphy will be cut. Johnson will challenge Mike Love for the 4th spot on the roster.
 

DT: Phillips wants to test the market. I think they believe he’ll be disappointed by what he finds. Beane spoke to guys having different ideas of their market value as opposed to their team. I think Beane has a better idea of what Jordan is worth. He didn’t make the pro bowl, wasn’t an all-pro and seemed disappointed by both. He had nice sack numbers, but for a 340lb man he gets pushed around a lot up front. I also believe he is one player that they will “have frank discussions about” as Beane alluded to.

 

LB: Edmunds & Milano are two of the guys they want to keep as part of their core, could see Milano (along with Dawkins, who I forgot to mention above) get extensions this summer. Vosean Joseph basically redshirted and will be given a chance to compete for playing time. They’ll probably bring in a cheaper veteran to be a SAM linebacker of sorts, but I wouldn’t expect any huge investment with the amount of nickel they play and their ability to line up with a “big nickel” using Siran Neal in the slot. 
 

CB: They will extend the 5th year option to Tre White. He will play out 2020 on his deal and likely sign an extension in the summer of 2021 to tack onto his 5th year. Kevin Johnson will probably be brought back unless he gets some ridiculous offer, and he will again compete with Wallace for playing time. I expect a mid-round Pick used toward this position as well.

 

S: I think they want to see if Jaquan Johnson can be solid enough at safety to eventually replace Poyer. Hyde is the more important of the two and so he will be the priority, but I believe they view Poyer as someone that they’ll need to have a discussion about, missing a couple tackles in that big game (everyone did towards the end, but Poyer looked a bit slow to the ball as well, he might’ve just been gassed though). But if Jaquan Johnson can be a viable replacement, it’s another area where they can move an expensive contract out in exchange for a rookie deal and that’s all they want to keep doing especially as Poyer gets closer to the big 3-0.

 

 

Some of this I obviously surmised without comments being specifically made about a position group, but this is my general gist on how they feel about the roster.

 

If I had to make a guess I would say

1. They will bring back Shaq.

2. Jordan Phillips tests the market, is disappointed and stays in Buffalo on a 2yr deal around $7M-$8M per year.

3. Quinton Spain leaves

4. Kevin Johnson brought back on a 2yr deal.

5. DE is pursued in free agency. Ngakoue, Beasley, Fowler, Quinn will all be targets. 
6. Receiver and offense in general will be added through free agency and the draft. Still wouldn’t count out an AJ Green trade if he is tagged by the Bengals. 

 

Nice post

[Mr. K]

You would think A.J. Green was Randy Moss 2.0. Unless he is going to be the year 3 example of Trent Murphy and Tyler Kroft (signings off injuries) I would be surprised to see him in Buffalo. 

[NewEra]

3 hours ago, JoPoy88 said:

you’re cracked if you don’t think Phillips will command something like that this offseason. Not saying the bills would or should match, but an offer like that will happen. Look at the DL numbers bro.

Meaning: he’s going to get a lot more than that bro

3 hours ago, Dkollidas said:

I would argue Phillips could earn that much. Maybe it won’t be with us, but who knows. And I like Henry as well, but paying him $15M+ per year just sounds like a bad investment. Running backs are literally plug and play. I think they draft another back in the 3rd or 4th round. Najee Harris? Cam Akers? AJ Dillon? They’re not Derrick Henry but they could help compliment Singletary to give us a top-5 rushing attack. 
 

I wholeheartedly agree on Shenault though. Really is love them to go after AJ Green AND draft Viska as well.

Phillips will earn more than that