If we add Yannick here is what our cap space my look like

[BuffaloBillsGospel]

Option 3 for sure for me- There is no way in hell the Bills can continue to pay Trent Murphy, he was brought in to be another pass rushing option alongside of Hughes, which has resulted in 4 sacks in 2018 and 5 sacks in 2019, nowhere near where he needs to be and we need to cut ties there imo whether we have the money or not. Also Shaq Lawson has been unproductive his entire time leading up to his contract year which is always a red flag for me. I get that Rex Ryan was the HC for some of that time but guys like Alexander and Hughes have had multiple HC's and still have had productive careers with us. 

[Big Turk]

1 hour ago, Reed83HOF said:

How about 4 good years by the age of 24and entering his prime?

I projected as best as I could with just a straight salary 5 years at 85 million is $17.1/season - granted the numbers will be off a bit or so in Yr1 with his bonuses and such. It is more of the exercise of salary committed to a positional role.

 

Typically a lot of these contracts are backloaded with big salaries because it is easier for the teams to dump them in year 4 and 5 with much less of a cap hit taken due to pro-rated signing bonus money.  From the way it sounds like, Beane is not thinking about using the space to sign big ticket FA's

[dave mcbride]

2 minutes ago, Chandler#81 said:

Not given much of a chance? Dave, he’s started every game he was healthy enough to play. I certainly think he was over Drafted, but when healthy, he started throughout his 4 years. Otherwise, I think it was wise not to pay him the 5th year option. We’ve seen his best.

We can do better.

He didn't start any games this year at all, actually (not that that means much). More importantly, his snap count was basically under 50 percent for the first half of the season before going up later in the season: https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/L/LawsSh00.htm.  By way of comparison, Murphy's snap counts were significantly higher: https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/M/MurpTr00.htm.  I think Shaq has become a better player and like I said I'd love to keep him. However, I still think the Bills view him as a rotational guy and aren't going to pay a lot for him. My larger point is that I think that there will be two teams out there desperate enough for a solid-quality DE who will represent an upgrade, and that's all Lawson will need to get paid. And he is in it to get paid at this point (rightly so). 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

2 hours ago, BuffaloHokie13 said:

I didn't take that as they weren't going for big fish, but rather that they don't plan on making a bunch of outside moves.

 

Last year they signed 19 players from outside the org.

 

I expect a splash or 2 with maybe a handful of value signings at most.

 

I'm trying to find the exact quote (anyone got a transcript yet?) but the context is Beane was talking about all kinds of moves one can make in FA.  He talked about you can sign low-level guys, mid-level guys, and top guys, then he said "we won't be spending at the deep end of the pool". 

 

It seemed pretty clear that he was talking about not targeting high dollar FA.  But I can't find a transcript, and the presser is 40 minutes long - not sure where it is in there as I had to listen to it in about 6 chunks.

[dave mcbride]

33 minutes ago, Reed83HOF said:

I don't disagree with this, I would rather have Lawson's youth and upside with a contract similar to Murphy's, 25 vs 29 for very similar production and I wonder if that is how Beane is figuring Shaq's value. If you just use either of them as a third DE; how much do you value that third DE as far as the salary cap per positional value vs Johnson let's say.

 

Yannick is a premier piece that is affordable under our cap situation & won't preclude us from signing any of our own, fills a need and is an actual upgrade vs the players we have. You can do with with a 1 year bloated cost depending on how you structure or you can clear some space up at the same time.

 

All I wanted to show in this post, is that it is possible to upgrade the Edge opposite Hughes at a relatively small increase in cap dollars allocated between LB & DE as it is today. The beauty of our cap situation as I posted in another thread is that - we are so well set up over the next 3 off-seasons, we can be extremely flexible and still sign our own plus to target upgrades at positions of need.  

 

PS - I don't put much stock in PFF ratings and PFR's AV number because I don't really understand them, so take this with a grain of salt. Murphy graded out higher than Lawson by both metrics (and significantly so with AV) this season. Again, I think Lawson is a good player, but I also think that Murphy was a lot better than people here are giving him credit for, at least based on what I watched. I really did think he was a pretty disruptive force over the course of the season.

[thebandit27]

7 hours ago, Chandler#81 said:

According to some guy named Brandon, that’s not how the team is and will be constructed. Is Yannick great? Yes. Unfortunately for him, the Bills didn’t Draft him. Otherwise he’d likely get re-signed to a greater contract.

He also said that they wouldn’t be that active in FA last year. They ended up signing a starting RB, 2 starting WRs, 4 starting OLmen, and a starting TE.

[dave mcbride]

3 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I'm trying to find the exact quote (anyone got a transcript yet?) but the context is Beane was talking about all kinds of moves one can make in FA.  He talked about you can sign low-level guys, mid-level guys, and top guys, then he said "we won't be spending at the deep end of the pool". 

 

It seemed pretty clear that he was talking about not targeting high dollar FA.  But I can't find a transcript, and the presser is 40 minutes long - not sure where it is in there as I had to listen to it in about 6 chunks.

Yolo's thread on the pressers has a tweet in which he says that.

[Rc2catch]

3 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

He didn't start any games this year at all, actually (not that that means much). More importantly, his snap count was basically under 50 percent for the first half of the season before going up later in the season: https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/L/LawsSh00.htm.  By way of comparison, Murphy's snap counts were significantly higher: https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/M/MurpTr00.htm.  I think Shaq has become a better player and like I said I'd love to keep him. However, I still think the Bills view him as a rotational guy and aren't going to pay a lot for him. My larger point is that I think that there will be two teams out there desperate enough for a solid-quality DE who will represent an upgrade, and that's all Lawson will need to get paid. And he is in it to get paid at this point (rightly so). 

I can say for sure shaqs numbers at 450+ snaps is quite great. Bump those snaps to 750+ and that’s big time elite level production. I’m the biggest shaq supporter on here probably but... Can he handle 750 snaps and stay healthy? Did they limit him this year to protect his health (didn’t help since he basically couldn’t go in Houston) 

Or did they want more from Murphy? Or liked shaq coming in to save the defense? 
I have mentioned before our defense being soft giving up that first drive most of the year. Then they settled down. Did they settle down cause shaq was coming in that second drive? 
I can also feel pretty confident in saying if Lawson was healthy there’s no way Watson is putting that team on his back marching down the field with those runs. 

[dave mcbride]

6 minutes ago, Rc2catch said:

I can say for sure shaqs numbers at 450+ snaps is quite great. Bump those snaps to 750+ and that’s big time elite level production. I’m the biggest shaq supporter on here probably but... Can he handle 750 snaps and stay healthy? Did they limit him this year to protect his health (didn’t help since he basically couldn’t go in Houston) 

Or did they want more from Murphy? Or liked shaq coming in to save the defense? 
I have mentioned before our defense being soft giving up that first drive most of the year. Then they settled down. Did they settle down cause shaq was coming in that second drive? 
I can also feel pretty confident in saying if Lawson was healthy there’s no way Watson is putting that team on his back marching down the field with those runs. 

At the risk of sounding like a broken record, he's a young, experienced, and reasonably good DE coming off of his rookie contract. More than one team will see him as an upgrade, and he'll be paid as a consequence. I also think he's an excellent fit for Patriots-style defenses (e.g., Miami, NE, Detroit, Houston). I doubt the Bills see him in those terms, and won't match. He's going to the team that'll give him the best deal and the most guaranteed money. He'd be unwise not to.

Edited January 8, 2020 by dave mcbride

[Rc2catch]

Just now, dave mcbride said:

At the risk of sounding like a broken record, he's a young, experienced, and reasonably good DE coming off of his rookie contract. More than one team will see him as an upgrade, and he'll be paid as a consequence. I also think he's an excellent fit for Patriots-style defenses (e.g., Miami, NE, Detroit, Houston). I doubt the Bills see him in those terms, and won't match. He's going to the team that'll given  him the best deal and the most guaranteed money. He'd be unwise not to.

Reading the Houston message board before the game he was their number one free agent on the wish list. I was very impressed the homework they had done on him. More than just browsing his stat page. They knew a lot about him. They loved the idea of mixing him as a 3-4 outside rusher and 4-3 end in situations 

[BuffaloHokie13]

28 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I'm trying to find the exact quote (anyone got a transcript yet?) but the context is Beane was talking about all kinds of moves one can make in FA.  He talked about you can sign low-level guys, mid-level guys, and top guys, then he said "we won't be spending at the deep end of the pool". 

 

It seemed pretty clear that he was talking about not targeting high dollar FA.  But I can't find a transcript, and the presser is 40 minutes long - not sure where it is in there as I had to listen to it in about 6 chunks.

I think you're mis-remembering based on WGR's quote.

 

He's saying as a team, this offseason isn't an overhaul. As such, we aren't going deep into FA like we did last year [by signing 19 new players]

[Lurker]

2 hours ago, dave mcbride said:

They also need some good journeymen too, and they can easily afford Murphy and Yannick. Murphy is a well-functioning cog in a very good D, and he is disruptive even if the sack numbers don't show it. Not sure why Bills fans want to get rid of solidly functional players on an elite unit.

 

IDK.   Murphy to me is Eddie Yarborough with a better agent.    We don't need to pay a "cog" that kind of money.

 

But I see a great young pass rusher like Ngakoue as a difference maker (like Corny Bennett was in '87) between a very good, efficient defense and a great one capable of going far in the playoffs.   

 

Guys like Murphy come and go.    We need to break the 'process' for selected players like Yannuck, just like the great Bills teams of the SB years did...

 

 

Edited January 8, 2020 by Lurker

[formerlyofCtown]

11 hours ago, Reed83HOF said:

Using Info from Spotrac, I am sure if any of my quick assumptions are incorrect - this will be quickly pointed out. Here is what it would look like with us signing Yannick

 

Just looking at the DE position overall with the players on our roster in 2019 and comparing the total contract value against next season using the following

 

1.) We don't resign Shaq, keep Trent & sign Yannick

2.)  We keep Shaq (I used his 5th year option total), cut Trent & sign Yannick

3.) We don't resign Shaq, cut Trent & sign Yannick

 

 

Would you pay the extra $4 million in cap space for option 3 vs 2019?

 

Keep in mind the following: We spend more than the league average on DEs & both Beane and McD have said that we want to be aggressive and attacking with out front 4

 

 

As you can see we spend $25.5 million vs the League average of $13.2 million

 

We also have the potential to cut the $4 million extra down with the $3.75M saved by losing LorAx, who will most likely be replaced with a 2 down LB if sign a pass rushing DE. Here is a scenario:

 

We are $3.9 million under in LB next year as a result.

 

We typically under spend at this position vs the league average:

 

Would you make this trade off?

I fully expect a move like this but dont expect Murphy to get cut.  We need to replace players not create additional holes.  We are not in bad cap position.

[Don Otreply]

6 hours ago, dave mcbride said:

Trent Murphy was a good (not great, but certainly disruptive, dependable, and good) player this past season and was one of the best players on the field vs. Houston. Why do Bills fans want to cut good players when they have $98 million in cap space???

Because they play fantasy football, and believe it or not, they don’t Know how to build a football team. I’m just guessing here.., ???

 

Go Bills!!! We 

[formerlyofCtown]

4 hours ago, billsfan1959 said:

 

No. However, they were trying to get to a competitive status while starting to build through the draft. At this point, and Beane as much as said so in his presser, they don't need to add as much through free agency - certainly not in the high dollar range. Their focus will always primarily be drafting and signing their own.

 

With that said, I absolutley see them targeting certain positions in free agency. I just don't see them targeting top dollar free agents.

With the exception of Morse and Beasley those were all bargain signings.

[TPS]

Definitely option 2.  I was in favor of signing both Shaq and Phillips, but I'm now leaning toward Shaq only.

Shaq has outperformed Trent, who is over-paid for his production.  Also, his clueless play against the Titans, collapsing in on a fake, was not the first time he's done that. Go with Shaq and Daryl Johnson at LDE, and Jerry/Yannick at RDE.  Hughes played 64% of snaps this year, and it's most likely time for him to throttle down to 50%.  

 

As for Phillips, 2020 is the year of the horse, Ed Oliver.  Get him over 60% of the snaps, then both add a 3-tech vet and draft someone.    

Edited January 8, 2020 by TPS

[Putin]

6 hours ago, Rc2catch said:

I don’t want any scenario not involving Lawson. 
Now if they offer him a fair deal and he chooses to leave for an over the top payday somewhere else I can’t be upset with anyone. 
But I think shaq is the first real test to retaining your players for these guys it’s important to set an example. You can’t just let him leave and allocate that money somewhere else. He’s earned a fair free agent market kind of raise in my opinion. 
I would like as many would some pass rushing talent brought into the rotation, but I wouldn’t let shaq walk away with no offer to do it. 

Even though Shaq was drafted by the previous regime nonetheless I agree 100% with everything ^^^^^

I think a lot people underestimate the value that Shaq brings to this defense, I really hope he gets a fair offer and stays in Buffalo 

[LOVEMESOMEBILLS]

6 hours ago, WideRightRevenge said:

is it just me .. but can you name the Bills DE player that for the 2019 season had 14 solo tackles (not including playoff game) and 4.5 sacks .. 6 tackles for loss .. and 9 QB hits (aka grazed the QB post pass)  ... granted missed 4 games (including Jets mass benching) .. so that's 12 games .. so roughly 1 tackle per game .. less than 1 QB hit and a one sack every 3 games ... now more clues .. we're paying that player $9MM a year and is 31 years old for a speed position.

 

I say cut Hughes (not sure of cap hit) and Murphy ... those two pay for Yannick .. draft another DE in 3rd round

Jerry just revealed he played 2019 with torn ligaments in his wrist. When it came to the playoff game and a 1 and done scenario he was the most disruptive player on our defense Saturday logging 4 tackles & 3 sacks while causing a couple others.

[billsfan89]

50 minutes ago, BuffaloHokie13 said:

I think you're mis-remembering based on WGR's quote.

 

He's saying as a team, this offseason isn't an overhaul. As such, we aren't going deep into FA like we did last year [by signing 19 new players]

 

I personally suspect they try and keep Spain, Lawson, and Phillips and then add one or two starters along with some depth pieces but isn't looking at anywhere the same activity as last off-season. They have a good team and are looking to retain it and complement it in a responsible manner. I think they can add Yannick, one other mid-level starting contract, and retain the core 3 (or at least 2 out of the 3 depending on what the market for them is) which would still leave the team with a healthy amount of cap space for the rookies and to roll over to help ease the 2021 extensions to Milano and Dawkins and possibly Tre. 

[Motorin']

6 hours ago, SlimShady'sGhost said:

$17 Mil for a player with 3 years experience? 

 

fuggeddaboudit!!! 

 

Now if he's had 5 or 6 good years ....  Maybe. 

 

 

 

He has 4 years of experience not 3, registering 8, 12, 9.5 and 8 sacks in his first four years.