Dablitzkrieg Posted January 7, 2020 Posted January 7, 2020 Dude, you are a machine with this stuff and I love the content. Thanks MAJBobby 1
MAJBobby Posted January 7, 2020 Author Posted January 7, 2020 1 minute ago, Dablitzkrieg said: Dude, you are a machine with this stuff and I love the content. Thanks MAJBobby no Prob. Gonna try and do Two Groups a day as I go through my notes no promises though. 1
machine gun kelly Posted January 7, 2020 Posted January 7, 2020 3 minutes ago, MAJBobby said: yeah Hard to do UFAs now. But one Franchise Tags are applied I tend to just do a post highlighting strictly UFA at that point. this is more of an early exercise for me looking at organizational depth on Bills and Depth in UFA classes at each group knowing some will go away and some more will get added. Just a snap shot in time. And for the first time in about 2 decades I haven’t started offseason stuff until January. Normally I am already well into offseason mode by November looking at needs and organizational depth etc. BTW - I’m in Tampa, so if interested next year, I have some Bills Backers at the best one in Tampa probably heading to the Miami game in Miami if interested. Short drive for both of us, and South Beach and Brickel is a blast Friday and Saturday night.
ColoradoBills Posted January 7, 2020 Posted January 7, 2020 2 minutes ago, MAJBobby said: And I won’t mind that either if they are cut immediately after Hooper is signed. We don’t have cap issues no reason to do it now until Hooper or Henry are already here. I see Kroft being cut once FA starts but they may keep Lee Smith and let him go to camp. He doesn't cost any more to cut later in the summer. Just my gut feeling.
MAJBobby Posted January 7, 2020 Author Posted January 7, 2020 1 minute ago, machine gun kelly said: BTW - I’m in Tampa, so if interested next year, I have some Bills Backers at the best one in Tampa probably heading to the Miami game in Miami if interested. Short drive for both of us, and South Beach and Brickel is a blast Friday and Saturday night. May take you up on that. I always try to get to the MIA game as one of my 10-12 I hit. Always depends on work. 2 minutes ago, ColoradoBills said: I see Kroft being cut once FA starts but they may keep Lee Smith and let him go to camp. He doesn't cost any more to cut later in the summer. Just my gut feeling. I could see that too. Because Knox already makes Kroft expendable if they sign into the position with Hooper or Henry. Smith is a deferent skill set so I could see them taking him to camp to see if Sweeney can make him expendable
machine gun kelly Posted January 7, 2020 Posted January 7, 2020 Understood. Same for me. It was fun when we went in the past. It’s been several years though, but made it to Buffalo for two games this year. GT.
buffaloboyinATL Posted January 7, 2020 Posted January 7, 2020 1 hour ago, MAJBobby said: Dawson Knox for a rookie did well, however a major issue that you cannot have with your TE is the drops. H was tied for 4th in the league with 6 drops. Tied for 4th among TE's, or all receivers? I would LOVE to get Hooper or Hunter Henry, that would definitely change the offense for the better and give Allen a reliable outlet. Agree that Knox would be a great #2 with upside.
MAJBobby Posted January 7, 2020 Author Posted January 7, 2020 1 minute ago, buffaloboyinATL said: Tied for 4th among TE's, or all receivers? I would LOVE to get Hooper or Hunter Henry, that would definitely change the offense for the better and give Allen a reliable outlet. Agree that Knox would be a great #2 with upside. Everyone. TE, WR and RBs 1
ColoradoBills Posted January 7, 2020 Posted January 7, 2020 4 minutes ago, MAJBobby said: May take you up on that. I always try to get to the MIA game as one of my 10-12 I hit. Always depends on work. I could see that too. Because Knox already makes Kroft expendable if they sign into the position with Hooper or Henry. Smith is a deferent skill set so I could see them taking him to camp to see if Sweeney can make him expendable Yep that's what I think. Also, until they find out if the FA signing could take over the "vet presence" in the TE room they may want to keep Smith for a while.
jwhit34 Posted January 7, 2020 Posted January 7, 2020 While there was huge volume of free agent signings last year the one big one they targeted and did not let get away was Mitch Morse. This year it should be Austin Hooper. He is an offense changer and they should be as aggressive with him as they were with Morse. Cutting Kroft and Smith free up almost enough $7 million to offset a $9-10 million cap # for Hooper. To me that's a no brainer - add Hooper and cut Kroft and Smith and you still have $87 million in cap space. 1
colin Posted January 7, 2020 Posted January 7, 2020 i'm not disagreeing w any of this, but do you guys really think the FO is gonna go that hard for TE? I think we absolutely need a top flight WR, and need to drop big bucks on one. if they did that as well as got an RB2, maybe a new T, drafted a WR, and signed hooper to cut smith and kroft? i'd be doing back flips. i'm just not sure that's what dabol wants (i'd like to upgrade him to, but i've mentioned that before).
Niagara Dude Posted January 7, 2020 Posted January 7, 2020 2 hours ago, MAJBobby said: ***Disclaimer*** I will not put all Names not on the Bills in this thread as it would get to long, I will keep it to a couple names in each tier (as I see them). Hope you enjoy the read. Did TE early for @RyanC883 Currently on Roster: (Positional Spending 5 players 11.120M Cap ranked 10th in league) Tyler Kroft (UFA 2022) – Saves 4.812M against cap if Cut Lee Smith (UFA 2022) – Saves 2.25M against the cap if Cut. Dawson Knox (UFA 2023) Tommy Sweeny (UFA 2023) Nate Becker (signed futures deal) My Take: First, I would want more production out of this group that is 10th in the league in terms of Cap Commitment. A heck of a lot more when the position group accounted for only: 46 rec, 604 yards 13.13 avg, 4 TDs. Those numbers as a group would rank them as the 13th best TE in Rec, 11th best in yards, 20th in AVG, tied for 14th in TDs. This position group is on the verge of being great IMO. Also, there are to very easy cap savings moves if you go and get more. I do think more is needed and if the Bills choose to do that, we will have one of the best TE room in the league and could be argued would be even better than Baltimore. I will get to those move(s) later. But First let m address the current Situation at this group. Dawson Knox for a rookie did well, however a major issue that you cannot have with your TE is the drops. H was tied for 4th in the league with 6 drops. Add that into his 56.0% (28 rec 50 tgts) catch rate and you have a lot of drive killers, when your TE should be reliable for your QB. What was interesting is when I looked at his numbers compared to other TEs and what sticks out to me is that he has respectable numbers for a NO 2 TE. Ranked 36 in receptions, 23rd in Yards, 15th in AVG, 15th in 20+ catches and has a 53.6% 1st down rate. Everyone knew he was raw coming out of School, and it showed. I don’t think the plan ever was to have him start at TE, the INJ to Kroft solidified that this season and he struggled. However, if he can fix the Drops and the Catch % I think there is something here. The rest of the group I don’t really have much to talk about here except with Sweeney, in the limited opportunities he has had he has performed and that is a good thing. I look at him as a younger better option than both Smith and Kroft. So, I would improve this position with 2 (likely one Draft and 1 UFA). You can easily walk away from Lee Smith and Kroft for savings and improve the position group at the same time, now before I get into that, because there is no immediate cap need, these two stays on the Roster until that improvement is on the team. UFAs Possible Tier 1: Hunter Henry (likely a 9.5M AVV) Austin Hooper (likely a 10.5M AVV) Tier 2: Tyler Eifert Jacob Hollister Eric Ebron Possible Trade Market Greg Olsen OJ Howard Draft Tier 1: Brysen Hopkins (Purdue) Hunter Bryant (Washington) Albert Okwuegbunam (Missouri) Cole Kmet (ND) Tier 2: Jared Pinkney (Vanderbilt) Colby Parkinson (Stanford) Cheyenne O’Grady (Arkansas) Tier 3: Harrison Bryant (FAU) Josiah Deguara (Cincy) Mitchell Wilcox (South FL) Final thinking in this Position group for me would be: Sign Austin Hooper (25 yrs old). 5 years 50M with 33 guaranteed, AVV 10M per. That brings another 75 receptions and 6 TDs. Gives Bills a legit game breaking TE at the TE1 and puts Knox in the TE2 role which would be perfect. I also would go get Okwugbunam in the draft (likely a 4th rounder or later for a developmental athletic freak). After signing Hooper (back up plan would be Henry) I would release (don’t think I would find a pick for him) Kroft. Another thing about Hooper is he would put the Veteran in the room that McD and Beane love so much, just one that can really play. I also have Sweeney take over for Smith and cut Smith as well. (Both Kroft and Smith might be post camp cuts as no immediate need for the cap space). That would put the TE room going into camp something like this: Austin Hooper Dawson Knox Tommy Sweeney Albert Okwubunam Tyler Kroft Lee Smith Nate Becker Now getting Hooper or Henry likely means no drafted player in the position and I am OK with that as well, just showing the TE I would like out of this class. But I would rather spend my 10M a year with Hooper or Henry over spending it in WR. I was OK with this group this season, they underperformed IMO based on the Cap Space allocated to it. However there are two young talents that can grow, now go get a legit TE to add to this group and give Allen a reliable TE. Jack Conklin
MAJBobby Posted January 7, 2020 Author Posted January 7, 2020 40 minutes ago, Niagara Dude said: Jack Conklin Not on the OL yet
John from Riverside Posted January 7, 2020 Posted January 7, 2020 I feel like we aere good here. Cut the dead weight guys....bring Sweeney up.....cut the worthless higher paid guys.....Knox is the primary....Sweeney is frankly better then Kroft.....maybe draft a TE late that also plays great special teams? WR is where it is at......Duke Williams is the only size we have at that position
MAJBobby Posted January 7, 2020 Author Posted January 7, 2020 Just now, John from Riverside said: I feel like we aere good here. Cut the dead weight guys....bring Sweeney up.....cut the worthless higher paid guys.....Knox is the primary....Sweeney is frankly better then Kroft.....maybe draft a TE late that also plays great special teams? WR is where it is at......Duke Williams is the only size we have at that position So you wouldn't want a legit TE on this Roster? you can get playmakers everywhere I don't need size (though I will address WR later) on the outside when I have legit matchup nightmares at TE How many years has this board worried about how to cover Gronk? How many team worry every time they play KC and San Fran over Kittle and Kelce. We get a legit threat at TE the current WR group gets better too. So with ONE signing of Hooper you get an upgrade at TE and WR (and you didn't even touch that position yet) Just now, Pete said: Hunter Henry In terms of Skill I like Hunter Henry more than Hooper. In terms of Health History that is the only reason I have Henry as plan B. But like the Bills did with Morse, maybe they TGT and try and sign Henry first as others fighting over Hooper 1
John from Riverside Posted January 7, 2020 Posted January 7, 2020 3 minutes ago, MAJBobby said: So you wouldn't want a legit TE on this Roster? you can get playmakers everywhere I don't need size (though I will address WR later) on the outside when I have legit matchup nightmares at TE How many years has this board worried about how to cover Gronk? How many team worry every time they play KC and San Fran over Kittle and Kelce. We get a legit threat at TE the current WR group gets better too. So with ONE signing of Hooper you get an upgrade at TE and WR (and you didn't even touch that position yet) In terms of Skill I like Hunter Henry more than Hooper. In terms of Health History that is the only reason I have Henry as plan B. But like the Bills did with Morse, maybe they TGT and try and sign Henry first as others fighting over Hooper Knox is the legit TE......I know he has had some drops but not enough to make me think free agency gives us a legit better player (I am not against bringing in a solid vet that actually makes offensive plays I just dont want those reps being taken away from Knox) Meanwhile....EVERY time we have allowed Sweeney to play he has had receptions. To me this is WHY we are are so good on salary cap space.....Beane has found a way to draft well and not put huge salaries at these positions why not take advantage of this? 1
MAJBobby Posted January 7, 2020 Author Posted January 7, 2020 Just now, John from Riverside said: Knox is the legit TE......I know he has had some drops but not enough to make me think free agency gives us a legit better player (I am not against bringing in a solid vet that actually makes offensive plays I just dont want those reps being taken away from Knox) Meanwhile....EVERY time we have allowed Sweeney to play he has had receptions. To me this is WHY we are are so good on salary cap space.....Beane has found a way to draft well and not put huge salaries at these positions why not take advantage of this? I am taking advantage of it. I am going and signing a top 5 TE.
John from Riverside Posted January 7, 2020 Posted January 7, 2020 Just now, MAJBobby said: I am taking advantage of it. I am going and signing a top 5 TE. Which is top 5? And what do you do with Knox if you do this? I am not against signing a veteran.....and I like what Beane did at the OG psotiion (signing Spain and Jon F. and still drafting Ford who could have started at those positions doubling down) I just dont want to dismiss drafted players because they are on cost controlled contracts and Knox is obviously talented.
MAJBobby Posted January 7, 2020 Author Posted January 7, 2020 1 minute ago, John from Riverside said: Which is top 5? And what do you do with Knox if you do this? I am not against signing a veteran.....and I like what Beane did at the OG psotiion (signing Spain and Jon F. and still drafting Ford who could have started at those positions doubling down) I just dont want to dismiss drafted players because they are on cost controlled contracts and Knox is obviously talented. Knox moves to TE2. Which is about where he should be right now. So now my 2 TE sets actually have two legit options. If he progresses to be better (he may he may not) in 3 years when he is really ready for TE 1 you can flip Hooper or have two legit weapons at the position. Beane isn’t going to spend in UFA on a top end WR he is gonna address that in draft. So get the legit Offensive weapon at TE. again this thinking only applies to Hooper and Henry. If those 2 are not available then I am not saying sign an Eifert to take away from Knox. they will get more Value for their money spent in this position over WR. Because how this one position helps three (QB, WR and TE). 1
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