Good Twitter Thread Breaking Down Allen vs. Houston

[Phil The Thrill]

13 minutes ago, NoSaint said:

disagree and frankly was making this point live in game.

 

people leaned too heavy on outcome and not process in judging his first half. Up 16 points and no catastrophic outcomes with a couple nice highlights was enough for universal praise but there were several concerning plays he got away with. I’m not too proud to take some luck, as even the great ones get lucky bounces. But in evaluating his first half, yea, people were leaning too heavily on result to evaluate the actual play.

I don’t think you can say that, because if you are going to count things that didn’t happen, Siena Neal had an easy INT that he dropped.  It would have put the Bills in FG range to win.  

[Phil The Thrill]

9 minutes ago, IronyAbounds said:

One of the guys at the 538 site summed it up pretty well in my mind. He said Allen is all tools, no toolbox. He can make just about any play at a given moment, but there is no orderly fashion to the way he plays. He may well put it all together, but it is just as likely he remains wildly inconsistent and unable to lead the Bills any farther than a first round playoff loss. My guess is that as was the case this year the team will have to depend on the defense to take it where we would love for it to go.

Here’s the thing though.  Don’t you trust Beane and McDermott more than a fan who writes on 538, mathematicians on PFF, or some Canadien hoser named Seth Galina?

 

They aren’t stupid and I’m sure they get input both inside and outside the organization.  
 

If Josh is as bad as they say he is, wouldn’t they start to find a better “Plan B” than Matt Barkley?  That’s what Vrabel did this year and it saved his season.  

I am very much concerned about Josh - but I do think the actions of Beane and McDermott will be telling in the offseason.  

 

4 hours ago, Fan in Chicago said:

The article had a breakdown of key Allen plays. I am a supporter of Allen but am very interested in such analysis which talks about where he needs to improve. That is not equivalent to ****ing on him. 

Saturday showed me that SOME of these critiques are in fact legit.  There is some merit to what informed media says about him - not sure about this Timmie’s eating, dart smokin’ hoser, eh?

[NoSaint]

7 minutes ago, Phil The Thrill said:

I don’t think you can say that, because if you are going to count things that didn’t happen, Siena Neal had an easy INT that he dropped.  It would have put the Bills in FG range to win.  

which is a perfectly fine commentary on Watson’s play. 
 

im not saying we deserved to win or lose based on anything. Or that he played better or worse based on the outcome. I’m saying based on the throw he made his play execution was concerning. 
 

if the Hail Mary to the FB in double coverage ended up a TD I’d be thrilled but still concerned about his decision making, as a hypothetical example of evaluating his play instead of his outcomes. 

[CoudyBills]

9 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

It isn't even that Daboll doesn't deserve any criticism. He does. It is just that you read this board and every offensive play that doesn't work is Brian Daboll's fault.

 

Josh Allen makes a wrong read? Daboll's fault. 

Receiver drops a catchable ball? Daboll's fault. 

Three blockers fail to execute basic block in a game on the line position? Daboll's fault. 

Josh Allen checks into a run with 30 seconds left and 1 time out? Daboll's fault.

 

It is particularly the case with Allen because there are some fans who will just put the blame anywhere else. But it is a theme of Bills fans for years. Always blame the offensive coordinator for not getting more out of sub standard offensive talent. 

 

You know when we had a decent offense? 2015 and 2016.... when we had two offensive linemen go to the pro bowl, Lesean McCoy still close to his prime, a decent tight end in Charles Clay (before his knee became positively arthritic) and talent at receiver - Watkins, Woods, Hogan, Harvin and Goodwin. Yes we had Greg Roman who was and is a very good offensive coordinator but we know those other guys are good because with the exception of Wood, who never played anywhere else, they all have solid NFL production in other spots before Buffalo, after Buffalo or both. 

 

I know I sound like a broken record. But I just can't stress how strongly I feel that the biggest problem offensively remains talent. We just don't have enough good players. 

 

And I should say that I don't think Josh played a bad game on Saturday and while I see the point on some of those clips, on others yes there might have been different places Josh could have gone with the ball but the places he did go were still somewhat effective in those situations. 

 

But firing Daboll is not the answer to improving our offense. Josh getting better and the Bills improving the talent around him is. 

Silly Gunner...Josh Allen doesnt throw any catchable balls. ?‍♂️

[BADOLBILZ]

3 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I think limiting it beyond 3 blockers to one defender might be a little tricky, no? 

 

Again. Nobody here is saying Daboll is blameless. But on this forum he is to blame for everything. 

 

 

The confusion among three blockers was reminiscent of the exasperating confusion in the Bills secondary under Rex.

 

Here's the point...........Rex wasn't a bad DC at all.........he had been OUSTANDING..........we know that..........we saw it in Baltimore and at times in NY and even glimpses in Buffalo when everything clicked.

 

With the right personnel his system worked and was stifling.

 

But when you try to force a complicated system on personnel.........sometimes it doesn't work.

 

It's on the coach to identify and implement what WILL work.

 

But it's NEVER worked for Daboll.

 

Is it even a "forest for the trees" situation when the coach is 0-4 in even getting decent production in any of his OC jobs?

 

It's almost willful ignorance at this point to trust Daboll.

 

I'm not calling for Daboll's head...........but something has to give...........get players in who can make the system look good or adjust.

 

This should be our Shaq/Ragnuts offseason for Daboll........fortunately the coffer is full of Pegula bucks for FA...........let's hope it works out better.

 

[Phil The Thrill]

3 hours ago, stony said:

Or you discredit the source.

Sure but in this case, discrediting the source is easy to do.

 

Is Seth Galina a credible source? 

2 hours ago, NoSaint said:

which is a perfectly fine commentary on Watson’s play. 
 

im not saying we deserved to win or lose based on anything. Or that he played better or worse based on the outcome. I’m saying based on the throw he made his play execution was concerning. 
 

if the Hail Mary to the FB in double coverage ended up a TD I’d be thrilled but still concerned about his decision making, as a hypothetical example of evaluating his play instead of his outcomes. 

Yeah I have the same concerns about Josh.  I just feel that you have to credit the source.  I have no idea who Seth Galina is but I have seen him on Twitter for weeks repeatedly trash Allen whenever he could and support any other person who trashed Allen.

 

He comes off as someone who’s more out to prove that Josh is a bad QB and that the Bills are crazy for not cutting him, than he is an impartial evaluator

[SCBills]

3 hours ago, IronyAbounds said:

One of the guys at the 538 site summed it up pretty well in my mind. He said Allen is all tools, no toolbox. He can make just about any play at a given moment, but there is no orderly fashion to the way he plays. He may well put it all together, but it is just as likely he remains wildly inconsistent and unable to lead the Bills any farther than a first round playoff loss. My guess is that as was the case this year the team will have to depend on the defense to take it where we would love for it to go.

Well, he almost led a team with an average OL and average playmakers to a first round playoff win while his defense gave up a 16 point lead, so I’m quite confident his floor isn’t even “unable to lead the Bills any farther than a first round playoff loss”. 
 

 

Edited January 8, 2020 by SCBills

[Phil The Thrill]

2 minutes ago, SCBills said:

Well, he almost led a team with an average OL and average playmakers to a first round playoff win while his defense gave up a 16 point lead, so I’m quite confident his floor isn’t even “unable to lead the Bills any farther than a first round playoff loss”. 
 

 

Ok wait a second though.  Since when was the supporting cast in Buffalo considered “average?”  I think people were touting the talent on offense a few weeks earlier in the year.  

[ILBillsfan]

3 hours ago, IronyAbounds said:

One of the guys at the 538 site summed it up pretty well in my mind. He said Allen is all tools, no toolbox. He can make just about any play at a given moment, but there is no orderly fashion to the way he plays. He may well put it all together, but it is just as likely he remains wildly inconsistent and unable to lead the Bills any farther than a first round playoff loss. My guess is that as was the case this year the team will have to depend on the defense to take it where we would love for it to go.

guys at 538 are tools

[SCBills]

6 minutes ago, Phil The Thrill said:

Ok wait a second though.  Since when was the supporting cast in Buffalo considered “average?”  I think people were touting the talent on offense a few weeks earlier in the year.  

It’s a massive upgrade over the dumpster fire we had last year, but our offense is absolutely average talent-wise.  
 

The OL is average.  Could become more than that as Ford develops and they get more continuity.  
 

Our best weapon is a rookie RB.  His backup was a guy who should be retired.  
 

Our starting TE is also a rookie.  A talented rookie, but a rookie, in a position that takes time to develop.  
 

We have a #2 WR as our #1 in John Brown.  Who had a massive failed toe-tap in a big moment.  
 

Our #2 WR is a slot who was out-repped by a guy who we just activated the week prior.  
 

Yea... that’s a pretty average offense.  
 

Lots of potential in this OL and the futures of Singletary & Knox.  Good depth of WR with Brown and Beasley.  However, we’re 1 or 2 WR’s, a RB and another year of experience away from above average talent around Josh Allen. 

 

 

Edited January 8, 2020 by SCBills

[BillsVet]

10 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

The confusion among three blockers was reminiscent of the exasperating confusion in the Bills secondary under Rex.

 

Here's the point...........Rex wasn't a bad DC at all.........he had been OUSTANDING..........we know that..........we saw it in Baltimore and at times in NY and even glimpses in Buffalo when everything clicked.

 

With the right personnel his system worked and was stifling.

 

But when you try to force a complicated system on personnel.........sometimes it doesn't work.

 

It's on the coach to identify and implement what WILL work.

 

But it's NEVER worked for Daboll.

 

Is it even a "forest for the trees" situation when the coach is 0-4 in even getting decent production in any of his OC jobs?

 

It's almost willful ignorance at this point to trust Daboll.

 

I'm not calling for Daboll's head...........but something has to give...........get players in who can make the system look good or adjust.

 

This should be our Shaq/Ragnuts offseason for Daboll........fortunately the coffer is full of Pegula bucks for FA...........let's hope it works out better.

 

 

I can't help to look at what Baltimore did this year with Lamar Jackson, who was successful in large part because they didn't put a massive playbook on him.  Instead, they had or surrounded him with plenty of talent, particularly on the OL and at TE.  Their TE's caught 125 passes for 1500+ yards and 14 TDs.  

 

McD acknowledged yesterday that scoring points is harder that playing outstanding defense.  Perhaps it'd be best to not rush this complicated scheme and build on what Josh has learned.  If Baltimore can do what they did with Lamar, I'd expect Buffalo could find a way to similarly put Allen in position.   

 

In 2020, I expect McD and Daboll to modify that AND put a lot more talent out there to help him.  Or else you're going to get a kid who tries to do everything again and his development will be hindered. 

 

 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

13 hours ago, K-9 said:

Of COURSE there were concerning plays. But that’s not my point. My point is that anyone can take any unsuccessful play and say that if that play were successful, then the narrative changes.
 

Honest people don’t ascribe different outcomes to fictional results like this guy did.

 

Didn't Watson make a couple of potential pics that we dropped?

 

That's the other side of "different outcomes to fictional results" in sports  - there are usually different outcomes to be had on both sides of the ball.

[thebandit27]

10 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

The confusion among three blockers was reminiscent of the exasperating confusion in the Bills secondary under Rex.

 

Here's the point...........Rex wasn't a bad DC at all.........he had been OUSTANDING..........we know that..........we saw it in Baltimore and at times in NY and even glimpses in Buffalo when everything clicked.

 

With the right personnel his system worked and was stifling.

 

But when you try to force a complicated system on personnel.........sometimes it doesn't work.

 

It's on the coach to identify and implement what WILL work.

 

But it's NEVER worked for Daboll.

 

Is it even a "forest for the trees" situation when the coach is 0-4 in even getting decent production in any of his OC jobs?

 

It's almost willful ignorance at this point to trust Daboll.

 

I'm not calling for Daboll's head...........but something has to give...........get players in who can make the system look good or adjust.

 

This should be our Shaq/Ragnuts offseason for Daboll........fortunately the coffer is full of Pegula bucks for FA...........let's hope it works out better.

 

Curious who you want in FA? I’d love Green but doubt Brown lets him go. Best fit for this offense may actually be Emmanuel Sanders. Veteran that excels at route running, excellent stop/start ability, great hands, tough, etc.

 

And I would absolutely flip if they found a way to draft Ruggs. Dude is dynamite. ? 

[GunnerBill]

13 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Didn't Watson make a couple of potential pics that we dropped?

 

That's the other side of "different outcomes to fictional results" in sports  - there are usually different outcomes to be had on both sides of the ball.

 

There was certainly one the first play from scrimmage after HT. There was the ST touchdown overturned and then the next play Watson rolled right tried to throw back across his body a bit and threw it straight at Siran Neal who dropped it. Had he caught it then it would have been a foot race between him and Watson to the endzone. There was no other Texan in position to even attempt a tackle.  

[C.Biscuit97]

Josh Allen was Jameis Winston.  I loved him in the first half and completely reconsidered every negative concern I had about him.  Then in the 2nd half, it showed all the concerns I had about him.  I felt like I was on drugs.  It was both awesome and depressing at the same time.  
 

I do think there was progress but I’m still not sure if he is the future.  Next year, hopefully, they will actually draft good receivers -and we can have a better answer going forward.  I know he will work his butt off and I can genuinely say Allen is not boring.  Of course, a boring qb isn’t the worst thing sometimes.  That was a roller coaster.

[Bermuda Triangle]

The "whole narrative" also looks different if Duke catches that TD, Siran Neal doesn't drop an INT, the defense tackles, or the refs do their job.  

 

Not really defending Allen here, but I'm quite sure that if you broken down every snap of every game, there's not a QB in the league who doesn't leave a good number of plays on the field every game. 

[C.Biscuit97]

3 minutes ago, Bermuda Triangle said:

The "whole narrative" also looks different if Duke catches that TD, Siran Neal doesn't drop an INT, the defense tackles, or the refs do their job.  

 

Not really defending Allen here, but I'm quite sure that if you broken down every snap of every game, there's not a QB in the league who doesn't leave a good number of plays on the field every game. 

True but some do it more than others.  Sometimes we act like Allen is the only qb that has receivers that drop the ball.  
 

I do think Allen has improved but he is still the least accurate starting qb in the nfl after not really being accurate at any other level.  We are hopefully getting a stud receiver but if you aren’t a little worried about him ever being consistent enough, you’re not being honest with yourself. 

[Motorin']

I really liked the way he graphed the route concepts and then provided the video of the full play.

 

I don't necessarily agree with all of the commentary, but the format is interesting and allowed me to see Josh's footwork, vision and read progressions from a view I haven't been privy to before.

 

I guess my take aways are that I'm a little more concerned now that I have been before with the fluidity of Josh's mechanics in terms of being able to adjust and be ready to hit the right route as it comes open in a quick and decisive manner. 

 

His footwork never looked "slow" to me until watching the All 22 perspective and having the route concepts charted out at the moment of the snap like Madden play art.

 

I still believe in Josh, and up to this point assumed that all of his improvements would be in the mental processing of the game. Things still need to slow down for him, and he needs to work on his mechanics and become more fluid. From the All 22 perspective it does look like he's putting himself in position to miss some open throws do to his drop back and foot work simply taking too long and being slightly awkward, resulting in him not being in the right "ready" position to make the throw when it needs to come out.

 

Hoping to see better performance next season. Also open to the possibility that he may take a step backwards before it all comes together. 

Edited January 8, 2020 by Motorin'

[ILBillsfan]

On 1/7/2020 at 10:13 AM, Coach Tuesday said:

There's that McKenzie play I've been ranting about - would've taken it to the house, most likely, but Josh throws it into the dirt.  Frustrating.

You realize McKenzie fell down on the route this the ball short and the DB didn’t and it looks like he had the best position

[Hapless Bills Fan]

On 1/7/2020 at 10:08 AM, GunnerBill said:

It isn't even that Daboll doesn't deserve any criticism. He does. It is just that you read this board and every offensive play that doesn't work is Brian Daboll's fault.

 

Please stop