The REAL reason Duke Didnt Catch The TD Pass

[Motorin']

1 minute ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

Fancy way of making something look much worse than it is.

 

Poster said DK would clearly come down with that, but Metcalf isn't exactly glue-hands.

 

7% vs 10.5%?

 

Wait wait...better yet... 7 drops for a guy who was CONSTANTLY in the game seeing game action and getting comfortable with his QB vs 2 drops who was active for only 5 total games (4 with Allen) and was still developing chemistry with his QB???? 

 

I'm tired of the Duke Williams discussion already. Honestly, the guy shouldve gotten a ton more playing time this year, but he didn't. Would it have changed outcomes of games? Maybe. I don't think we were ever Championship bound, but it might have gotten that single playoff win off our back.

 

Yes, I said that. Just him. He very easily could've been that difference.

 

Regardless, I think he's a fringe roster player next year because I believe (maybe I should say desperately hope...?) that Beane & Co saw that Allen pretty desperately needs a big bodied WR to throw to and so upgrades are coming in the offseason.

 

Duke Williams will just remain one of those "what-ifs" for the 2019 season even if he's not much of a cog in the machine moving forward.

I like Duke, and thought he should have been on the field way early in the year.

 

I don't know if DK makes that catch or not, nobody does.

 

But that's like saying a QB who played 2 games and threw 2 picks is turning the ball over at roughly the same rate as a QB who throws 7 picks in 16 games. 

 

 

 

[transplantbillsfan]

10 minutes ago, LOVEMESOMEBILLS said:

Watch the game again, I just did as it was on the NFL Network. Duke's hands were free on the first attempt at the ball and he most certainly should've caught it. The replay in slow motion clearly showed that ball was right there for him to catch, the announcers even commented on it. Booger said something to the effect that Duke has got to get two hands on that. The arm isn't grabbed until the second attempt at the ball. Not the greatest picture, but you can see both his hands and arms were free to catch the ball. I recommend you rewatch the game again and see the replay of it, it's clear as day, it was a perfect pass.

 

 

 

Great shot.

 

Tough catch, but yeah, he could've gotten that.

 

Wish Duke had more game reps all year to build up to moments like that rather than wasting them on the increasingly useless Foster.

3 minutes ago, Motorin' said:

I like Duke, and thought he should have been on the field way early in the year.

 

I don't know if DK makes that catch or not, nobody does.

 

But that's like saying a QB who played 2 games and threw 2 picks is turning the ball over at roughly the same rate as a QB who throws 7 picks in 16 games. 

 

 

 

 

Agreed. It was a ridiculous comparison.

[GoBills808]

As already stated, he had a chance to catch it cleanly and photo in OP is his second bobble...which appears to be slightly impeded by a couple of the DB’s fingers. 
 

Awful drop.

[LOVEMESOMEBILLS]

8 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

Great shot.

 

Tough catch, but yeah, he could've gotten that.

 

Wish Duke had more game reps all year to build up to moments like that rather than wasting them on the increasingly useless Foster.

I'm telling you the picture doesn't do it justice, go watch the game again and see the replay it was there for him to grab. I'll admit that he's better than Foster who fell off a cliff compared to last year. I did like his third down catches in the first half, both nice throws and grabs. But if he's going to be the big sure handed receiver who makes the tough catches, he needs to make that catch. Here's to Duke continuing his improvement and knowledge of what it takes to be an NFL WR. If you remember me from early this season that's a big jump forward from where I was with him. He like several other of our young players just need to learn from their first playoff experience.

Edited January 7, 2020 by LOVEMESOMEBILLS

[Jay_Fixit]

3 hours ago, Happy Gilmore said:

From what i can see, Duke's problem is he has a hard time getting separation from the defender.  Other than that, he seems to be sure handed and doesn't have a problem with drops.  I think he's a #2 or 3 WR right now, not sure he'll get to #1 due to lack of speed.

Except for his 2 crucial drops on Saturday right?

[transplantbillsfan]

23 minutes ago, LOVEMESOMEBILLS said:

I'm telling you the picture doesn't do it justice, go watch the game again and see the replay it was there for him to grab. I'll admit that he's better than Foster who fell off a cliff compared to last year. I did like his third down catches in the first half, both nice throws and grabs. But if he's going to be the big sure handed receiver who makes the tough catches, he needs to make that catch. Here's to Duke continuing his improvement and knowledge of what it takes to be an NFL WR. If you remember me from early this season that's a big jump forward from where I was with him. He like several other of our young players just need to learn from their first playoff experience.

 

If it was a drop it was a drop.

 

Looks like he could have caught it.

 

So he dropped a difficult catch, but a very catchable one.

 

I'm agreeing with you.

 

However, I still would argue that any player on the field at any position needs live game reps to get more and more comfortable with the game. That's part of why I  still have so much hope moving forward for young raw guys like Allen and Knox who made many mistakes due to inexperience this year.

 

I don't know if Duke would have caught that ball with more game reps, but he might have. Or we might have won one or two of those one-possession games we lost this year and we might have had a better playoff seeding.

 

Who knows?

 

What I know is our coaches made some absolutely stupid decisions this year, and I think keeping Foster active over Duke for most of our meaningful games this year was one of them.

 

 

This is my biggest problem with McDermott and it all goes back to Allen.

 

"Welp, we've got out 10 point lead, time to go into a shell rather than making some real efforts to put our foot on their throats."

 

2nd half. 13 point lead.

 

"4th and 4 at the opponent 40... well... we're just outside comfortable FG territory and we're ahead by 10 on the road, so punt it rather than going for the jugular." (Ode to irony on this one for later going for it on 4th and 27 and attributing it to wanting to be aggressive. )

 

3 points later.

 

"Got our 16 point lead, my defense can hold them."

 

They don't. They give up a 75 yard TD drive and a 2 point conversion.

 

Suddenly it's only a one score lead late in the 3rd on the road and NOW you want your young QB to make sure he scores AND protects the football because evidently your defense isn't able to live up to its end of the bargain?

 

Uh oh, our young QB who's NEVER been on this grand a stage fumbled.

 

3 points for the opponent.

 

8 points for the opponent.

 

"Oh crap!!! Josh go win it for us!!!"

 

 

That's McDermott's stupidity. And I bring it back to Duke because you can't expect these kids to just suddenly turn a light switch on. Seasoned vets you could maybe expect that, but not QBs who are playing their 1st EVER playoff game in less than 30 NFL starts or a WR who is in his 5th NFL game EVER after being put back on the bench for half the season.

 

Honestly, the more I think about this year, the more our coaches irritate me.

[LOVEMESOMEBILLS]

1 minute ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

If it was a drop it was a drop.

 

Looks like he could have caught it.

 

So he dropped a difficult catch, but a very catchable one.

 

I'm agreeing with you.

 

However, I still would argue that any player on the field at any position needs live game reps to get more and more comfortable with the game. That's part of why I  still have so much hope moving forward for young raw guys like Allen and Knox who made many mistakes due to inexperience this year.

 

I don't know if Duke would have caught that ball with more game reps, but he might have. Or we might have won one or two of those one-possession games we lost this year and we might have had a better playoff seeding.

 

Who knows?

 

What I know is our coaches made some absolutely stupid decisions this year, and I think keeping Foster active over Duke for most of our meaningful games this year was one of them.

 

 

This is my biggest problem with McDermott and it all goes back to Allen.

 

"Welp, we've got out 10 point lead, time to go into a shell rather than making some real efforts to put our foot on their throats."

 

2nd half. 13 point lead.

 

"4th and 4 at the opponent 40... well... we're just outside comfortable FG territory and we're ahead by 10 on the road, so punt it rather than going for the jugular." (Ode to irony on this one for later going for it on 4th and 27 and attributing it to wanting to be aggressive. )

 

3 points later.

 

"Got our 16 point lead, my defense can hold them."

 

They don't. They give up a 75 yard TD drive and a 2 point conversion.

 

Suddenly it's only a one score lead late in the 3rd on the road and NOW you want your young QB to make sure he scores AND protects the football because evidently your defense isn't able to live up to its end of the bargain?

 

Uh oh, our young QB who's NEVER been on this grand a stage fumbled.

 

3 points for the opponent.

 

8 points for the opponent.

 

"Oh crap!!! Josh go win it for us!!!"

 

 

That's McDermott's stupidity. And I bring it back to Duke because you can't expect these kids to just suddenly turn a light switch on. Seasoned vets you could maybe expect that, but not QBs who are playing their 1st EVER playoff game in less than 30 NFL starts or a WR who is in his 5th NFL game EVER after being put back on the bench for half the season.

 

Honestly, the more I think about this year, the more our coaches irritate me.

I agree Duke does need some more gameday reps as long as we don't bring in someone better than him during the offseason. I would still love to see him put on 20 pounds and switch to TE this offseason, I think he would tear it up there, especially against LBs and safeties. 

 

My thought on McDermott are this, as Josh grows and continues to improve, he will be more willing take chances and not be so conservative. I think if he had Brees, Rodger, Mahomes or Brady he may have very well have kept the foot on the gas. You are correct in saying it's absurd to ask a young QB to take his foot off the gas, then a quarter later ask him to put the pedal to the metal. 

[Dan]

57 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

If it was a drop it was a drop.

 

Looks like he could have caught it.

 

So he dropped a difficult catch, but a very catchable one.

 

I'm agreeing with you.

 

However, I still would argue that any player on the field at any position needs live game reps to get more and more comfortable with the game. That's part of why I  still have so much hope moving forward for young raw guys like Allen and Knox who made many mistakes due to inexperience this year.

 

I don't know if Duke would have caught that ball with more game reps, but he might have. Or we might have won one or two of those one-possession games we lost this year and we might have had a better playoff seeding.

 

Who knows?

 

What I know is our coaches made some absolutely stupid decisions this year, and I think keeping Foster active over Duke for most of our meaningful games this year was one of them.

 

 

This is my biggest problem with McDermott and it all goes back to Allen.

 

"Welp, we've got out 10 point lead, time to go into a shell rather than making some real efforts to put our foot on their throats."

 

2nd half. 13 point lead.

 

"4th and 4 at the opponent 40... well... we're just outside comfortable FG territory and we're ahead by 10 on the road, so punt it rather than going for the jugular." (Ode to irony on this one for later going for it on 4th and 27 and attributing it to wanting to be aggressive. )

 

3 points later.

 

"Got our 16 point lead, my defense can hold them."

 

They don't. They give up a 75 yard TD drive and a 2 point conversion.

 

Suddenly it's only a one score lead late in the 3rd on the road and NOW you want your young QB to make sure he scores AND protects the football because evidently your defense isn't able to live up to its end of the bargain?

 

Uh oh, our young QB who's NEVER been on this grand a stage fumbled.

 

3 points for the opponent.

 

8 points for the opponent.

 

"Oh crap!!! Josh go win it for us!!!"

 

 

That's McDermott's stupidity. And I bring it back to Duke because you can't expect these kids to just suddenly turn a light switch on. Seasoned vets you could maybe expect that, but not QBs who are playing their 1st EVER playoff game in less than 30 NFL starts or a WR who is in his 5th NFL game EVER after being put back on the bench for half the season.

 

Honestly, the more I think about this year, the more our coaches irritate me.

Thank you for summing up exactly what I saw as the single biggest problem we had in this game, and for the season.  

 

The coaching staff need to do some pretty serious and deep self scouting.  They created soooo many of the situations that demanded perfection from a young team.  And then everyone sits here and nitpicks each player's "execution". 

[Don Otreply]

By the photo, it is PI, the defender is not making a play on the ball, but instead “interfering” by grabbing the offensive players torso/arm. Classic non enforcement of the rules. 

[Charles Romes]

He’s way better than the garbage we rolled out at that position in 2018 but that does not make him a potential 1/2.  His ceiling is a 3.  

[Buffalo Barbarian]

6 hours ago, StHustle said:

His left arm was hooked which forced an alligator arm attempt. There is NO QUESTION that he makes the catch if that didnt happen. In slow mo you can see he almost still made the grab. Great defense by the DB. Can we PLEASE put to bed the idea this was a drop???

 

 

On another note...why are you Duke haters so quick to label this guy as either a #5 or even not good enough to be in the league WHEN HE WAS A ROOKIE with very few games under his belt??

Why do top draft picks get the benefit of the doubt based on lack of experience when they are the ones supposed to be so much better than the undrafted guys? Seems undrafted guys are expected to kill it out the gate or they shouldnt be on the team. Duke has 5 NFL games under his belt. Lets compare his first 5 games to DK Metcalf who has a future HOF throwing to him and was the #2 guy on the roster:

 

DK - 

26 Targets
12 Receptions
2 TD
267 Yards

 

DuKe-

29 Targets
16 Receptions
1 TD
215 Yards

 

If Duke had Russell Wilson as his QB, who doubts Duke doesnt have just as good or better numbers than DK?? Let's be real here.

 

so its Josh Allen's fault the CB grabbed Dukes arm ??  So this is a crafty anti Josh thread , got it.

 

 

[Buffalo_Stampede]

We can and will do a lot better than Duke Williams. Big heart, good guy he's just not the guy we need. 

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

8 hours ago, StHustle said:

 

I get it....but based on the eye test from what you saw this year...would you keep Beasley over Duke?

 

This is a REALLY stupid question.

 

[Mickey]

8 hours ago, Ethan in Portland said:

He doesn't have near the speed of DK.  Ran a 4.73 40 which is elite LT speed not #1 WR speed.  He didn't have more than a half a yard of separation most of the game.  They would be foolish not to bring him back but he is not the answer for WR #1.  

Larry Fitzgerald - 4.63

Jerry Rice - 4.71

Chris Carter - 4.63

Anquan Boldin - 4.71

Me - 8.64

 

 

[CoudyBills]

4 hours ago, LOVEMESOMEBILLS said:

I agree Duke does need some more gameday reps as long as we don't bring in someone better than him during the offseason. I would still love to see him put on 20 pounds and switch to TE this offseason, I think he would tear it up there, especially against LBs and safeties. 

 

My thought on McDermott are this, as Josh grows and continues to improve, he will be more willing take chances and not be so conservative. I think if he had Brees, Rodger, Mahomes or Brady he may have very well have kept the foot on the gas. You are correct in saying it's absurd to ask a young QB to take his foot off the gas, then a quarter later ask him to put the pedal to the metal. 

Well stated.  Josh is a top fuel dragster at this point in his career.  Coaches need to prepare a relatively straight path for him.  Road courses aren't great, dragsters don't turn well.  

[billsfan1959]

9 hours ago, StHustle said:

His left arm was hooked which forced an alligator arm attempt. There is NO QUESTION that he makes the catch if that didnt happen. In slow mo you can see he almost still made the grab. Great defense by the DB. Can we PLEASE put to bed the idea this was a drop???

 

I really like Williams and his skill set. I think he should stay on this team, and I also think he could play an important role next year and beyond. However, IMO, he should have caught that ball. The DB got his hand on Williams' arm and, maybe, prevents Williams from pulling the ball in as he falls. But, IMO, Williams should have pulled that ball in before the DB got his hand in there. 

 

 

[Hebert19]

9 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

There are two people on this board:

• Those who think Duke is a scrub because he played in the CFL.
• Those who see a guy who was going to be a first round pick before getting suspended who has upside and a skill set our other guys dont.

There is no in between.  There is no shifting anyone from one side to the other.  

 

Bottom line:  Duke bashers were wrong, they wont ever admit it, but they were because they said he would never make the roster, let alone start or contribute.  

 

That doesn't mean Duke is a lock for next years roster or is our future savior at WR.  It means, the kid has potential and he stuck around this long and made an impact at end of season for a reason.  I think he will be here competing again next year.  Whether or not he makes the team or where he is at on the depth chart I think will have a lot to do with what Beane does in both FA and Draft.

 

If Beane just drafts a guy, Duke is going to have a good shot to not only be on the team, but likely open up camp competing to start with the rookie.  If Beane both signs a guy like say AJ Green and also invests an early pick on a WR, then I think Duke is looking at competing for the 5th WR spot next year at best.  

 

 

People keep saying this, but they keep leaving out a key detail...he had not been in game shape at the combine after being cut from the team after the bar fight.  He was faster than his 4.73 time...he still isn't blazing fast, and of course no where near DK, but he was always fast enough to get open in the NFL and has proven that.  

Hes a fine 3rd or 4th reciever and would be happy to have him back next year with a top 2 rounds rookie. 

[thebandit27]

You may want to mention that this photo is AFTER he bobbled the initial catch opportunity—on which the defender most certainly did NOT hook his arm

[Teddy KGB]

37 minutes ago, ScottLaw said:

This threads a fail.

Went super fail with the Beasley vs Duke scenario 

[Rob's House]

6 hours ago, Motorin' said:

No dawg. Though it's a small sample size, Duke's averaging 10.5 drops per 100. 

 

10.5 - 7 = 3.5

 

So I was wrong. That 50% more drops. 

 

3.5 / 7 = .5

 

6 hours ago, Motorin' said:

I like Duke, and thought he should have been on the field way early in the year.

 

I don't know if DK makes that catch or not, nobody does.

 

But that's like saying a QB who played 2 games and threw 2 picks is turning the ball over at roughly the same rate as a QB who throws 7 picks in 16 games. 

 

 

 

 

 

It's also equally accurate to say his drop rate is 3.5 percentage points higher, 47% higher, or Metcalf's is 33% lower. 

 

The only real takeaway is that you can skew impressions depending on how you choose to frame the numbers. The sample size is far too small to draw any meaningful conclusions.

 

And actually, to your second point, it would be equivalent to 2 picks in 3 games vs. 7 in 16. Your miscalculation skewed Duke's ratio by 50%.