Playoff game QB analysis: Kubiak Waxes Poetic

[Hapless Bills Fan]

All season, I've been enjoying Jim Kubiak's weekly analysis of Josh Allen in The Buffalo News. (paywall, trial available)

 

For those unfamiliar, Kubiak is a former Navy QB and  NFL/Arena league QB (and Navy vet) who now runs a QB academy in WNY.  Kubiak goes quarter by quarter detailing play selection, Allen's throws and completions in that Q, and giving a per Q grade.  I find that a fantastic way to get a snapshot of the game and just in general I find his critique and comments on technique a big step up on a number of other assessments (I wish he'd lose the awful music he puts over his video clips, but that's a nit).

 

Anyway, in addition to his usual sound assessment he waxes downright poetic at the end:
 

Allen had opportunities that he was seemingly not ready for. Allen's incredible year, his tremendous heart and his toughness could not overcome his lack of situational awareness, his lack of experience and his inconsistencies under duress. His valiant efforts fell short in a game that we will all remember.
 

This difficult moment of pain, suffering and failure for Allen and the Bills will no doubt be a catalyst that will result in a more prepared Allen. These moments are like a solar eclipse, the moon temporarily blocks the sun's light, but only for a moment, as Allen's future on the other side, with continued growth and development is very bright.

 

Key points:

-He grades Allen very high through the first 3Q, pointing out that Allen played with poise and accuracy:

Allen made these types of throws look easy. He was fluid, comfortable, anticipating and seeing the openings before they occurred. He played at times in this game like a cagey and grizzled veteran, but then there were times that he didn't.

-Allen was 16 of 25 or 64% completion for 164 yds in the first 3Q.

-Then we get to the 4Q, which is where Things Fell Apart.  Allen was 5 of 14 in the 4Q. 

-He also fumbled due to delaying a decision to run, and had his arm hit by Watt for a pass deflection on 3rd and 4

-Then we get to the stupid-ass sack and the "lateral", another stupid decision.

-In Overtime, he points out that Allen seemed shaken by the crushing blow he took after Knox's whiffed block on the QB sweep:

Allen's overtime performance was shaky due in large part to a failed quarterback sweep. The sweep was a good call, and if executed properly, could have resulted in a huge gain.

Unfortunately, Dawson Knox missed the block on Zach Cunningham. This missed block and subsequent defensive penetration resulted in a crushing blow to Allen, who seemed shaken.

 

I personally subscribe to both TBN and the Athletic (the Athletic is annoying me by offering cut-rate deals to new subscribers only, which is NOT, IMO, the way to build customer loyalty).  I would encourage anyone to look for a "deal" being offered by TBN or take a trial next fall and check out Kubiak.

 

But I'm still chuckling over his poetic description analogizing Allen's 4Q and OT to a solar eclipse.

 

 

 

 

 

[machine gun kelly]

Hapless, nice post.  I couldn’t agree more with all of his points and I’m sure he was just focused on QB’s, and although stated to death the choice for only 3 running plays in OT, and the lack of running by Singletary in Q4 upsets me.  Not to the level that I want him fired or or get the Cleveland job, but he needs to stop getting too cute.

[Gugny]

51 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

All season, I've been enjoying Jim Kubiak's weekly analysis of Josh Allen in The Buffalo News. (paywall, trial available)

 

For those unfamiliar, Kubiak is a former Navy QB and  NFL/Arena league QB (and Navy vet) who now runs a QB academy in WNY.  Kubiak goes quarter by quarter detailing play selection, Allen's throws and completions in that Q, and giving a per Q grade.  I find that a fantastic way to get a snapshot of the game and just in general I find his critique and comments on technique a big step up on a number of other assessments (I wish he'd lose the awful music he puts over his video clips, but that's a nit).

 

Anyway, in addition to his usual sound assessment he waxes downright poetic at the end:
 

Allen had opportunities that he was seemingly not ready for. Allen's incredible year, his tremendous heart and his toughness could not overcome his lack of situational awareness, his lack of experience and his inconsistencies under duress. His valiant efforts fell short in a game that we will all remember.
 

This difficult moment of pain, suffering and failure for Allen and the Bills will no doubt be a catalyst that will result in a more prepared Allen. These moments are like a solar eclipse, the moon temporarily blocks the sun's light, but only for a moment, as Allen's future on the other side, with continued growth and development is very bright.

 

Key points:

-He grades Allen very high through the first 3Q, pointing out that Allen played with poise and accuracy:

Allen made these types of throws look easy. He was fluid, comfortable, anticipating and seeing the openings before they occurred. He played at times in this game like a cagey and grizzled veteran, but then there were times that he didn't.

-Allen was 16 of 25 or 64% completion for 164 yds in the first 3Q.

-Then we get to the 4Q, which is where Things Fell Apart.  Allen was 5 of 14 in the 4Q. 

-He also fumbled due to delaying a decision to run, and had his arm hit by Watt for a pass deflection on 3rd and 4

-Then we get to the stupid-ass sack and the "lateral", another stupid decision.

-In Overtime, he points out that Allen seemed shaken by the crushing blow he took after Knox's whiffed block on the QB sweep:

Allen's overtime performance was shaky due in large part to a failed quarterback sweep. The sweep was a good call, and if executed properly, could have resulted in a huge gain.

Unfortunately, Dawson Knox missed the block on Zach Cunningham. This missed block and subsequent defensive penetration resulted in a crushing blow to Allen, who seemed shaken.

 

I personally subscribe to both TBN and the Athletic (the Athletic is annoying me by offering cut-rate deals to new subscribers only, which is NOT, IMO, the way to build customer loyalty).  I would encourage anyone to look for a "deal" being offered by TBN or take a trial next fall and check out Kubiak.

 

But I'm still chuckling over his poetic description analogizing Allen's 4Q and OT to a solar eclipse.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Did he mention how stupid it was that Allen actually had to throw 14 passes (and drop back for more) in the fourth quarter when Devin Singletary only had 13 carries?

[Phil The Thrill]

1 hour ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

All season, I've been enjoying Jim Kubiak's weekly analysis of Josh Allen in The Buffalo News. (paywall, trial available)

 

For those unfamiliar, Kubiak is a former Navy QB and  NFL/Arena league QB (and Navy vet) who now runs a QB academy in WNY.  Kubiak goes quarter by quarter detailing play selection, Allen's throws and completions in that Q, and giving a per Q grade.  I find that a fantastic way to get a snapshot of the game and just in general I find his critique and comments on technique a big step up on a number of other assessments (I wish he'd lose the awful music he puts over his video clips, but that's a nit).

 

Anyway, in addition to his usual sound assessment he waxes downright poetic at the end:
 

Allen had opportunities that he was seemingly not ready for. Allen's incredible year, his tremendous heart and his toughness could not overcome his lack of situational awareness, his lack of experience and his inconsistencies under duress. His valiant efforts fell short in a game that we will all remember.
 

This difficult moment of pain, suffering and failure for Allen and the Bills will no doubt be a catalyst that will result in a more prepared Allen. These moments are like a solar eclipse, the moon temporarily blocks the sun's light, but only for a moment, as Allen's future on the other side, with continued growth and development is very bright.

 

Key points:

-He grades Allen very high through the first 3Q, pointing out that Allen played with poise and accuracy:

Allen made these types of throws look easy. He was fluid, comfortable, anticipating and seeing the openings before they occurred. He played at times in this game like a cagey and grizzled veteran, but then there were times that he didn't.

-Allen was 16 of 25 or 64% completion for 164 yds in the first 3Q.

-Then we get to the 4Q, which is where Things Fell Apart.  Allen was 5 of 14 in the 4Q. 

-He also fumbled due to delaying a decision to run, and had his arm hit by Watt for a pass deflection on 3rd and 4

-Then we get to the stupid-ass sack and the "lateral", another stupid decision.

-In Overtime, he points out that Allen seemed shaken by the crushing blow he took after Knox's whiffed block on the QB sweep:

Allen's overtime performance was shaky due in large part to a failed quarterback sweep. The sweep was a good call, and if executed properly, could have resulted in a huge gain.

Unfortunately, Dawson Knox missed the block on Zach Cunningham. This missed block and subsequent defensive penetration resulted in a crushing blow to Allen, who seemed shaken.

 

I personally subscribe to both TBN and the Athletic (the Athletic is annoying me by offering cut-rate deals to new subscribers only, which is NOT, IMO, the way to build customer loyalty).  I would encourage anyone to look for a "deal" being offered by TBN or take a trial next fall and check out Kubiak.

 

But I'm still chuckling over his poetic description analogizing Allen's 4Q and OT to a solar eclipse.

 

 

 

 

 

Good stuff and beautiful writing!  LOL  Curious though - what’s the difference in price?
 

I subscribe to the Athletic but not TBN.  This feature looks pretty interesting but I’m not sure that TBN gives you as much value The Athletic.   You not only get the Buffalo coverage but also coverage from every other market.  Plus exclusive feature like live chats and podcasts.  

I’ve seen the TBN content and while it looks interesting, it doesn’t compel me to want to subscribe

[Warcodered]

Yeah that hit on that sweep was bad, I was worried he'd be taken out to be looked at for a concussion.

Edited January 7, 2020 by Warcodered

[GregPersons]

Seems like a good analysis to me. That's how it felt watching the game in real time. Even by the time we were tied, I think, I wasn't particularly worried until it was becoming apparent that Allen was nervous. You could see Allen regressing in the 4Q and OT, especially after the big hit on the failed sweep.... but even before then he was become more erratic and desperate in his decision making.  I remember my stomach sinking like, Oh no this looks a lot like the Josh from the Pats game. 

 

[Penfield45]

that's all we have heard this season, failed execution 

 

so when will our highly rated GM stop bringing in glorified gym teachers off the street and start signing NFL quality playmakers to add something to this offense, this includes oline. 

 

 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

16 minutes ago, Phil The Thrill said:

Good stuff and beautiful writing!  LOL  Curious though - what’s the difference in price?
 

I subscribe to the Athletic but not TBN.  This feature looks pretty interesting but I’m not sure that TBN gives you as much value The Athletic.   You not only get the Buffalo coverage but also coverage from every other market.  Plus exclusive feature like live chats and podcasts.  

I’ve seen the TBN content and while it looks interesting, it doesn’t compel me to want to subscribe

 

They both have deals so kind of hard to say.    There are writers I like covering the Bills for both. 

I would say grab a trial and decide based on what value you find there

[LeGOATski]

6 minutes ago, Penfield45 said:

that's all we have heard this season, failed execution 

 

so when will our highly rated GM stop bringing in glorified gym teachers off the street and start signing NFL quality playmakers to add something to this offense, this includes oline. 

 

 

Both Brown and Singletary each had about 1000 yards from scrimmage on the season. You're calling that "glorified gym teacher" production?

[transplantbillsfan]

Thanks for posting Hap.

 

I haven't had the heart yet to go back and watch the All-22, but I still have a lot of questions that might answer.

 

Was it really Allen who audibled to that run to Gore with 30 seconds in the 1st half or was that the play originally called?

 

What about that Knox whiff on the block?

 

Did our 2 defenders miss that tackle on Watson at the end because they ran into eachother or did Watson really pull a Houdini?

 

 

This was such a close game.  It was a game I really thought we were the better team in clearly, and we lost.  Feels like such a Billsy thing to do, but I like Kubiak's eclipse metaphor.  With Allen, I see that as accurate.  You could see him hurting in his PCs right after the game and the day after and I think he's going to work as hard or harder than anyone else in the NFL this offseason to improve.

 

Just sucks that it's another year we're saying, "welp, there's always next year!" and we have to wait over 8 months for another meaningful Bills snap.

 

But in the end, that's how the fans of 31 teams end up feeling at the end of the NFL season, even if it's just prolonged a few weeks.

 

But Hallelujah praise be to Jeebus, the Pats dynasty is at least over!

Edited January 7, 2020 by transplantbillsfan

[Kelly the Dog]

Kubiak is a very good read and that was, as usual, a well reasoned analysis and good article.

 

Personally, I differ a little after watching it a second time. To me, Josh made way, way more good, very good, and great plays than poor, very poor and inexcusable ones. His only inexcusable play was the sack/grounding from the 28. Kubiak was right on that he cannot take a sack here and he did. The intentional grounding though was completely immaterial. If he didn't throw it it still would have been a 10+ yard sack and loss of down. It was unconscionable not to punt on 4th and 27. That sack was not on Josh at all. 

 

The other terrrible play was the fumble, but that stuff happens. I agree with Kubiak's analysis that he may have taken off earlier, and obviously you cannot turn the ball over so that is a huge error, but he wasn't reckless, dumb for running, or try to do too much.

 

The lateral didn't change the game. It was immaterial, and actually helped us. It could have been a game-winner. It may not have been wise but that's who he is and it didnt hurt us.

 

Duke could have and should have caught a TD that was a great throw. John Brown blew an easy toe-tap that was a great throw and cost us four points in all likelihood. He picked u several third and longs. The pass to Duke that Kubiak mentioned and one to Singletary were insane. He had a good game but IMO too many people are equating the good with the bad. To me the good far outweighed the bad.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

3 hours ago, Warcodered said:

Yeah that hit on that sweep was bad I was worried he'd be taken out to be looked at for a concussion.

 

Kubiak seems to think he probably should have been

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

3 hours ago, Warcodered said:

Yeah that hit on that sweep was bad I was worried he'd be taken out to be looked at for a concussion.

he looked like he was going to be slow to get up, but then willed himself up. 
 

wouldn’t be surprised if he was groggy 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

2 hours ago, Kelly the Dog said:

Kubiak is a very good read and that was, as usual, a well reasoned analysis and good article.

 

Personally, I differ a little after watching it a second time. To me, Josh made way, way more good, very good, and great plays than poor, very poor and inexcusable ones. His only inexcusable play was the sack/grounding from the 28. Kubiak was right on that he cannot take a sack here and he did. The intentional grounding though was completely immaterial. If he didn't throw it it still would have been a 10+ yard sack and loss of down. It was unconscionable not to punt on 4th and 27. That sack was not on Josh at all. 

 

The other terrrible play was the fumble, but that stuff happens. I agree with Kubiak's analysis that he may have taken off earlier, and obviously you cannot turn the ball over so that is a huge error, but he wasn't reckless, dumb for running, or try to do too much.

 

The lateral didn't change the game. It was immaterial, and actually helped us. It could have been a game-winner. It may not have been wise but that's who he is and it didnt hurt us.

 

Duke could have and should have caught a TD that was a great throw. John Brown blew an easy toe-tap that was a great throw and cost us four points in all likelihood. He picked u several third and longs. The pass to Duke that Kubiak mentioned and one to Singletary were insane. He had a good game but IMO too many people are equating the good with the bad. To me the good far outweighed the bad.

 

Great points, Kelly.  I think the message of the fumble is Allen does need to be more decisive about whether to throw or to go.  But when I looked more at the play I saw this:

 

Here's the start of the breakdown.  Kroft is 1 on 1 blocking Whitney Mercilus.  He is being beaten like a drum.  Shades of the Ravens game - What is this, Groundhog Day where we put a TE 1:1 against a top pass rusher?  Singletary is a step slow getting over to help.   Dawkins is standing there blocking no one, presumably because folks dropped they expected to have rush.

Dawkins moves over to help, but doesn't realize Allen has already flushed out so he takes the wrong angle and Mercilus blows by him for a clear shot to blindside Allen and smack the tip of the ball, creating leverage for a fumble.  Allen for some reason thinks that with 1 guy and 3 blockers including his LT, he should be able to, IDK, take a moment to look for someone open?

Now look at the bottom of each photo. You see Nsekhe escorting Watt to the ground, which is of course the reason that Allen decided the pocket was no safe place for him.  Typically when you see a pass rusher on his side with an OL on top of him, holding has occurred. I thought if there were offensive holding, it negated the result of the play. 

 

OK I'm done now, but this kind of rotted my pastrami.

 

 

[Nextmanup]

Why should we assume he will learn from these mistakes in the playoff game, when they are all mistakes he has already made but failed to learn from? 

 

Josh's meltdown in the 2nd half is not new.  He's done it from time to time all season.  

 

This isn't the first time he's made these types of mistakes.

 

It's a big part of why they keep him on a tight leash.  They know when he goes native and starts sand lotting it, things can get pretty squirrelly pretty fast.

 

 

 

 

[Mr. WEO]

3 hours ago, Kelly the Dog said:

Kubiak is a very good read and that was, as usual, a well reasoned analysis and good article.

 

Personally, I differ a little after watching it a second time. To me, Josh made way, way more good, very good, and great plays than poor, very poor and inexcusable ones. His only inexcusable play was the sack/grounding from the 28. Kubiak was right on that he cannot take a sack here and he did. The intentional grounding though was completely immaterial. If he didn't throw it it still would have been a 10+ yard sack and loss of down. It was unconscionable not to punt on 4th and 27. That sack was not on Josh at all. 

 

The other terrrible play was the fumble, but that stuff happens. I agree with Kubiak's analysis that he may have taken off earlier, and obviously you cannot turn the ball over so that is a huge error, but he wasn't reckless, dumb for running, or try to do too much.

 

The lateral didn't change the game. It was immaterial, and actually helped us. It could have been a game-winner. It may not have been wise but that's who he is and it didnt hurt us.

 

Duke could have and should have caught a TD that was a great throw. John Brown blew an easy toe-tap that was a great throw and cost us four points in all likelihood. He picked u several third and longs. The pass to Duke that Kubiak mentioned and one to Singletary were insane. He had a good game but IMO too many people are equating the good with the bad. To me the good far outweighed the bad.

 

I would disagree on the lateral.  It was a mistake that had no consequence.  The point at which he chose to give up the ball and the circumstance made no sense.  It was hero ball move that we had hoped he had moved on from. 

[Mango]

1 hour ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Great points, Kelly.  I think the message of the fumble is Allen does need to be more decisive about whether to throw or to go.  But when I looked more at the play I saw this:

 

Here's the start of the breakdown.  Kroft is 1 on 1 blocking Whitney Mercilus.  He is being beaten like a drum.  Shades of the Ravens game - What is this, Groundhog Day where we put a TE 1:1 against a top pass rusher?  Singletary is a step slow getting over to help.   Dawkins is standing there blocking no one, presumably because folks dropped they expected to have rush.

Dawkins moves over to help, but doesn't realize Allen has already flushed out so he takes the wrong angle and Mercilus blows by him for a clear shot to blindside Allen and smack the tip of the ball, creating leverage for a fumble.  Allen for some reason thinks that with 1 guy and 3 blockers including his LT, he should be able to, IDK, take a moment to look for someone open?

Now look at the bottom of each photo. You see Nsekhe escorting Watt to the ground, which is of course the reason that Allen decided the pocket was no safe place for him.  Typically when you see a pass rusher on his side with an OL on top of him, holding has occurred. I thought if there were offensive holding, it negated the result of the play. 

 

OK I'm done now, but this kind of rotted my pastrami.

 

 

For all my complaining about calls on Saturday, Ford got away with a TON of holding. He was grabbing Watt outside the numbers/shoulders and tossing him around a ton. 

[Phil The Thrill]

5 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

They both have deals so kind of hard to say.    There are writers I like covering the Bills for both. 

I would say grab a trial and decide based on what value you find there

Sounds good 

[Kelly the Dog]

12 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

I would disagree on the lateral.  It was a mistake that had no consequence.  The point at which he chose to give up the ball and the circumstance made no sense.  It was hero ball move that we had hoped he had moved on from. 

The two passes that were not intercepted were mistakes that had no consequence. That stuff happens every game. If he gets the ball to Knox who gets 10-20 yards he is incredible. I understand you don't want guys doing stuff like that all of the time but it didn't hurt us. In fact, it helped us. Was it really smart? Of course not. Was it overly risky? Yes, but only because it was from such a weird angle. But this is who he is. I'm very willing to take the good with the bad at this point, and I don't want to neuter him. It will hurt more in the long run. You want him to be Bret Favre. Bret Favre might have tried that lateral.

[BillsFan4]

7 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

All season, I've been enjoying Jim Kubiak's weekly analysis of Josh Allen in The Buffalo News. (paywall, trial available)

 

For those unfamiliar, Kubiak is a former Navy QB and  NFL/Arena league QB (and Navy vet) who now runs a QB academy in WNY.  Kubiak goes quarter by quarter detailing play selection, Allen's throws and completions in that Q, and giving a per Q grade.  I find that a fantastic way to get a snapshot of the game and just in general I find his critique and comments on technique a big step up on a number of other assessments (I wish he'd lose the awful music he puts over his video clips, but that's a nit).

 

Anyway, in addition to his usual sound assessment he waxes downright poetic at the end:
 

Allen had opportunities that he was seemingly not ready for. Allen's incredible year, his tremendous heart and his toughness could not overcome his lack of situational awareness, his lack of experience and his inconsistencies under duress. His valiant efforts fell short in a game that we will all remember.
 

This difficult moment of pain, suffering and failure for Allen and the Bills will no doubt be a catalyst that will result in a more prepared Allen. These moments are like a solar eclipse, the moon temporarily blocks the sun's light, but only for a moment, as Allen's future on the other side, with continued growth and development is very bright.

 

Key points:

-He grades Allen very high through the first 3Q, pointing out that Allen played with poise and accuracy:

Allen made these types of throws look easy. He was fluid, comfortable, anticipating and seeing the openings before they occurred. He played at times in this game like a cagey and grizzled veteran, but then there were times that he didn't.

-Allen was 16 of 25 or 64% completion for 164 yds in the first 3Q.

-Then we get to the 4Q, which is where Things Fell Apart.  Allen was 5 of 14 in the 4Q. 

-He also fumbled due to delaying a decision to run, and had his arm hit by Watt for a pass deflection on 3rd and 4

-Then we get to the stupid-ass sack and the "lateral", another stupid decision.

-In Overtime, he points out that Allen seemed shaken by the crushing blow he took after Knox's whiffed block on the QB sweep:

Allen's overtime performance was shaky due in large part to a failed quarterback sweep. The sweep was a good call, and if executed properly, could have resulted in a huge gain.

Unfortunately, Dawson Knox missed the block on Zach Cunningham. This missed block and subsequent defensive penetration resulted in a crushing blow to Allen, who seemed shaken.

 

I personally subscribe to both TBN and the Athletic (the Athletic is annoying me by offering cut-rate deals to new subscribers only, which is NOT, IMO, the way to build customer loyalty).  I would encourage anyone to look for a "deal" being offered by TBN or take a trial next fall and check out Kubiak.

 

But I'm still chuckling over his poetic description analogizing Allen's 4Q and OT to a solar eclipse.

 

 

 

 

 

 

I ageee. That’s a pet peeve of mine too. I called them out on it last year when they were running a 50% off sale that did NOT say anywhere that it was Only for new customers. I talked to a few athletic employees about that one (I notice they’ve since changed the way they word their tweets, adding in “new customers only”. I’m sure a lot of people complained) and said similar things to you -

 

you shouldn’t treat new customers better than your loyal existing customers. The cable company may get away with that ****, but they have a bit of a monopoly. The athletic definitely doesn’t have a monopoly on sports writing.

 

 

 

You can send yourself a gift subscription though, just FYI. It’s not quite as good as some of the deals they offer, but at least you get 15-20% off.