Freddie's Dead Posted January 6, 2020 Posted January 6, 2020 Not enough. He lost his mind on Saturday. I've been 100% JA since the Superman TD in Minnesota. After seeing that lateral, I'm 50%. No amount of improvement this year can overcome that moment for me. Maybe I'll feel better about it the further away I get, but 48 hours later, I'm still shocked that he did that.
loveorhatembillsfan4life Posted January 6, 2020 Posted January 6, 2020 I have seen enough with the eye test and extremely excited for next year. But got this from Buffalo Bills.com 6 percent jump in completion percentage 50 percent jump in td passes 38 percent jump in total tds 33 percent drop in ints passer rating increased by almost 20 points (67.9 to 85.3) last 11 weeks of nfl season, 3rd best td to int ratio 15:2 The best thing about Josh is that he is taking this loss to heart and will be working extremely hard in the offseason to work on his fundamentals. 2
whatdrought Posted January 6, 2020 Author Posted January 6, 2020 (edited) 14 minutes ago, SlimShady'sGhost said: Enough to know he can improve Not enough to remove my doubt that he has to prove himself still in 2020. This is it right here. 5 minutes ago, Freddie's Dead said: Not enough. He lost his mind on Saturday. I've been 100% JA since the Superman TD in Minnesota. After seeing that lateral, I'm 50%. No amount of improvement this year can overcome that moment for me. Maybe I'll feel better about it the further away I get, but 48 hours later, I'm still shocked that he did that. This seems like an overreaction. Let me re-work the scenario for you. Allen laterals to Knox, who catches it in stride, makes the defender (whose busy wrapping Josh) miss, and rumbles down the sideline for 22 yards. We kick the game tying fg and go to overtime. All the sudden that play is held up with his 4th and 1 play from Dallas as an example of Josh's never say die, winner mentality. Doesn't make it a smart decision, but I guarantee people aren't using it as an example of him losing his mind. Besides, one play where the game was overwhelming him (that is definitely true, no argument there) is not a defining moment. To ignore his consistent growth this year in lieu of that is a mistake, I think. Edited January 6, 2020 by whatdrought 4
mjt328 Posted January 6, 2020 Posted January 6, 2020 He improved his completion percentage from around 52% to about 58%. About six percentage points. Ultimately, we want him to settle between 60-65% as his career goes along. The closer he can get to 65 the better. So let's say he needs to go another seven points to reach his goal. On completion percentage, he's improved about 50% of his goal. In YPA, he took a marginal increase of 6.4 to 6.7. I would like to see this number over the 7.5 mark for sure. So in this area, I think he only jumped about 25-30 percent of where we want him. In scoring, he went from a 10-12 ratio on touchdowns/interceptions (0.83) to 20-9 (2.22). When you add in rushing touchdowns, he was 29-9 (3.22). Personally, I would like to see him jump his ratio to 3:1 in just passing. So he's probably about 60% of the way in this area. Exactly one season ago, Josh Allen's biggest critics were saying he: a) Could not be an efficient quarterback b) Made too many mistakes Twelve months later, his biggest strides were in efficiency (completion percentage) and in avoiding turnovers (TD/INT ratio). This tells me that Allen and our coaching staff can clearly see where he needs work, have focused on improving in those areas, and have taken some big steps in fixing those problems. He's a teachable player, who has the drive and work ethic to make himself better. I fully expect Allen to spend the offseason focusing on his footwork in the pocket, and cleaning up his deep ball accuracy. And there is a good reason to believe he will get better there too. 1
Big Gun Posted January 6, 2020 Posted January 6, 2020 5 minutes ago, loveorhatembillsfan4life said: I have seen enough with the eye test and extremely excited for next year. But got this from Buffalo Bills.com 6 percent jump in completion percentage 50 percent jump in td passes 38 percent jump in total tds 33 percent drop in ints passer rating increased by almost 20 points (67.9 to 85.3) last 11 weeks of nfl season, 3rd best td to int ratio 15:2 The best thing about Josh is that he is taking this loss to heart and will be working extremely hard in the offseason to work on his fundamentals. Not to pick nits but he went from 10 TD passes to 20, that is 100% increase. 1 1
ArtVandalay Posted January 6, 2020 Posted January 6, 2020 Josh's improvements came as a passer. He was already a great runner and saw no meaningful improvement year over year in his running ability or ball control while running. So his running is a wash so my look is at his improvements as a passer. Passing improvements, 2018 v 2019 = % improvement. Cmp%: 52.8 v 58.8 = +11% TD%: 3.1 v 4.3 = +39% INT%: 3.8 v 2.0 = +47% AY/A: 5.4 v 6.7 = +24% QB Rate: 67.9 v 85.3 = +26% However if you look at the improvements he went from bad numbers in 2018 (more int than td, 67.9 rate, 52.8 comp) to legit good/solid QB numbers, that's a pretty massive leap. Football reference calculates an "Approximate Value" for each player based on performance. Allen' AV increased from 6 to 11, an 83% increase. I think that sounds accurate considering how large the jump is in the NFL from bad QB to above average QB. Allen is 83% improved. 1
Freddie's Dead Posted January 6, 2020 Posted January 6, 2020 8 minutes ago, whatdrought said: This seems like an overreaction. Let me re-work the scenario for you. Allen laterals to Knox, who catches it in stride, makes the defender (whose busy wrapping Josh) miss, and rumbles down the sideline for 22 yards. We kick the game tying fg and go to overtime. All the sudden that play is held up with his 4th and 1 play from Dallas as an example of Josh's never say die, winner mentality. Doesn't make it a smart decision, but I guarantee people aren't using it as an example of him losing his mind. Besides, one play where the game was overwhelming him (that is definitely true, no argument there) is not a defining moment. To ignore his consistent growth this year in lieu of that is a mistake, I think. When I saw that lateral, my blood ran cold. The ball was nowhere near Knox and only a very heads up play by Knox to bat the ball laterally OB saved that play from disaster. Maybe it is an overreaction, but I can't get that play out my head. If you're going to lateral there, you need to make 100% sure you're doing it right. At best, it was a 50/50 ball where the Texans had as good a chance of grabbing it as Knox did. He did grow this year, but in the biggest moment, he melted down. I'll be more than happy to be wrong on this one. 1
Big Gun Posted January 6, 2020 Posted January 6, 2020 18 minutes ago, SlimShady'sGhost said: LOL what she said Enough to know he can improve Not enough to remove my doubt that he has to prove himself still in 2020. What does he have to prove, that he's an NFL caliber QB? He is the starter for the foreseeable future, he is the franchise, that's not even debatable. He is one of the better QBs in the league ( only 5 QBs had more TDs ) , there is nothing more to prove, he just needs to keep getting better and hone his craft, IMO the game will slow down even more for him next year.
ArtVandalay Posted January 6, 2020 Posted January 6, 2020 19 minutes ago, whatdrought said: This is it right here. This seems like an overreaction. Let me re-work the scenario for you. Allen laterals to Knox, who catches it in stride, makes the defender (whose busy wrapping Josh) miss, and rumbles down the sideline for 22 yards. We kick the game tying fg and go to overtime. All the sudden that play is held up with his 4th and 1 play from Dallas as an example of Josh's never say die, winner mentality. Doesn't make it a smart decision, but I guarantee people aren't using it as an example of him losing his mind. Besides, one play where the game was overwhelming him (that is definitely true, no argument there) is not a defining moment. To ignore his consistent growth this year in lieu of that is a mistake, I think. Let's rework the " lateral" again... Knox messes up and doesn't get the ball or hit it OB, defender comes over and scoops it up... 2 black jackets run on the field to talk to the ref, it's determined Allen was just giving himself up and tossing it to the ref, dead ball Bills football. 2 4
loveorhatembillsfan4life Posted January 6, 2020 Posted January 6, 2020 18 minutes ago, pop gun said: Not to pick nits but he went from 10 TD passes to 20, that is 100% increase. Good catch I just pulled this off a bb.com article. Didn’t even realize. 1
KD in CA Posted January 6, 2020 Posted January 6, 2020 1 hour ago, DC Tom said: 27.42%. Damn, beat me to it.
LOVEMESOMEBILLS Posted January 6, 2020 Posted January 6, 2020 Don't have a percentage, but he improved a lot. Sometime earlier in the season I heard a guy, who had interviewed Josh and he said Josh told him last year there were a bunch of plays that Daboll would tell him look at the first option if it's not there then run. He wasn't even trusted to go to his second option. He's come a long, long way since then. Now get rid of Duhball and we'll really see what Josh can do. I know let's line up Lee Smith and Patrick DiMarco as our only 2 wide outs and run them deep in the freakin playoffs.
Troll Toll Posted January 6, 2020 Posted January 6, 2020 75% better I think the biggest thing for him is to continue to develop mentally where he is better with protections, diagnosing the blitz, and making adjustments. He made great strides in those areas this year, but it still remains as his biggest opportunity for growth. I think there are far easier plays to be had if he can make more strides in this area. My fear is that he may focus too much on honing in on his deep ball and cutting the fumbling down. The biggest thing his critics miss entirely is his vision. He generally seems to be seeing the whole field and understanding what players on defense can make a play on the ball. We haven’t had a QB that could do this for decades. I’m confident that he can make the important remaining improvements he needs to be one of the best QBs in the league.
BillsfanAZ Posted January 6, 2020 Posted January 6, 2020 I saw improvement in Allen. I think the Bills have to take a page from the Ravens playbook and surround Allen with playmakers on offense and solidify that RT position. Of all the QB's to come out of college in his draft class, Allen was the least experienced. Even though we all want to see a top ten QB right now, I think he can get there. Allen wanting to take the team on his shoulders is a double edged sword. When it works, he looks awesome. When it doesnt, he looks horrible. A better surrounding cast will hopefully limit the times he feels he needs to do everything on this own.
transplantbillsfan Posted January 6, 2020 Posted January 6, 2020 Significant enough that I think we can all be encouraged he's likely the long term answer, but not enough to know with absolute certainty. 2
HOUSE Posted January 6, 2020 Posted January 6, 2020 (edited) His fumbles bounced further then 2018... Edited January 6, 2020 by HOUSE 2
Bangarang Posted January 6, 2020 Posted January 6, 2020 3 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said: Significant enough that I think we can all be encouraged he's likely the long term answer, but not enough to know with absolute certainty. If he can fix the issue with the deep ball and if we can get him more weapons then there is quite a bit to look forward to. Id like to see more efficiency as a passer. 1 1
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