whatdrought Posted January 6, 2020 Posted January 6, 2020 (edited) Simple question really. Use stats if you're a stat person, use eye test if you're an eye test person, use PFF if you're a moron. What percentage did he improve? For me, I think he improved 30-40% as a whole. From his accuracy (not downfield, but he did improve over the course of the season here) to his pocket presence to his decision making to his overall command of the game. Still lots of growth available, but it feels to me like those ready to quit on him are ignoring the jump he took this year, and assuming that he won't make another jump next year. P.S. - He did improve. If your answer is that he didn't, you're a troll and don't belong on this thread. Edited January 6, 2020 by whatdrought 8 1 1 1
Scott7975 Posted January 6, 2020 Posted January 6, 2020 I think your 30-40% seems pretty reasonable. 4
BuffaloRebound Posted January 6, 2020 Posted January 6, 2020 People ready to give up on him are morons. He’s right up there with Lamar, Mahomes, and Wilson as the most talented QB’s in the NFL. Improve the run game and give him some more weapons and watch him continue to blossom into a top a QB as he cuts out the stupid mistakes and learns when to take his shots. 7 1
Buffalo_Gal Posted January 6, 2020 Posted January 6, 2020 A lot. ?They said there'd be no math!! 1 7 1
Irv Posted January 6, 2020 Posted January 6, 2020 (edited) Last year 52.8% This year 58.8% 30-40% is too high. If he could stop fumbling so much maybe he'd become elite. Edited January 6, 2020 by Irv 2
oldmanfan Posted January 6, 2020 Posted January 6, 2020 I think the 30-40% is pretty close, probably more towards the 40%. For young QBs the key thing is to get the game to slow down for them enough to play at a successful level. It definitely slowed down more for him this year. I saw evidence of him going through progressions more, his completion percentage increased, he did well running the ball. And perhaps the most important is his ability to perform late in games to bring the team back. I think that is the kind of unmeasurable quality you look for in a QB. Saying that, however, there is still much to be done. Josh has to get less excitable while keeping the positive aspects of his game intact. He needs to develop more of the cold blooded type mentality rather than what we saw on a number of occasions, as in the second half Saturday. He has to take the reckless decision making out of his game; while the lateral did not cost us anything Sunday it was still a really dumb thing to try and pull off. He has to improve on his pre-snap reads and adjusting to blitzes; figure out that a throw away is OK many times. And I think he needs to demand that the OC takes the reins off him and let him play. I don't know that you'll ever completely get the hero ball out of the kid. But ultimately he's a 23 year old kid in his second year in the league, who I think we can reasonably expect to continue improvement next year. 1
whatdrought Posted January 6, 2020 Author Posted January 6, 2020 (edited) 7 minutes ago, Irv said: Last year 52.8% This year 58.8% 30-40% is too high. If he could stop fumbling so much maybe he'd become elite. You're comfortable using one metric to judge the entire season? Okay. Also, I agree about the fumbling. That's such a fluky problem though I expect it to get cleaned up. 14 minutes ago, DC Tom said: 27.42%. Not even rounding up. This is true analysis. Edited January 6, 2020 by whatdrought
Jobot Posted January 6, 2020 Posted January 6, 2020 After this Houston loss, and giving the benefit of the doubt following losses to Baltimore and NE (PLUS 2- pitiful drives against the Jets), it's so hard for me NOT to attribute a large portion of his perceived improvements to the easy schedule. I think the offense as a whole was exposed during the final stretch of the year. It all comes down to when Allen is able to 'mask' at least the deficiencies of the offense with his play... which he is currently not able to do so. 1
Socal-805 Posted January 6, 2020 Posted January 6, 2020 How much did the PASSING game improve, or is that too "STAT-ie" ?
Gugny Posted January 6, 2020 Posted January 6, 2020 He played smarter, i.e. - knowing when to run, when the get out of bounds, when to throw balls away. His accuracy improved. I know it wasn't that magical 60%, but he was still better. Yes ... lots of drops, but all QBs deal with drops. The biggest problem with the drops, to me, was when/where they happened. Lots of drive killers and TD preventers. He showed great poise. He showed great leadership. Given the fact that he is surrounded by minimal NFL starting-caliber talent, I think he did a hell of a job this season. All that said, I think Allen showed significant improvement and I'm certain that he will continue to do the same next year. 5 2 2
Socal-805 Posted January 6, 2020 Posted January 6, 2020 3 minutes ago, Jobot said: After this Houston loss, and giving the benefit of the doubt following losses to Baltimore and NE (PLUS 2- pitiful drives against the Jets), it's so hard for me NOT to attribute a large portion of his perceived improvements to the easy schedule. I think the offense as a whole was exposed during the final stretch of the year. It all comes down to when Allen is able to 'mask' at least the deficiencies of the offense with his play... which he is currently not able to do so. + 1
MrSarcasm Posted January 6, 2020 Posted January 6, 2020 (edited) 16 minutes ago, Irv said: If he could stop fumbling so much maybe he'd become elite. ? 16 minutes ago, Irv said: Wisest words ever spoken Edited January 6, 2020 by MrSarcasm
buffaloboyinATL Posted January 6, 2020 Posted January 6, 2020 I don't have a percentage, but what you said seems reasonable. I love the fact that he improved at all, in a year that many QB's regress. Headed in the right direction! 2
34-78-83 Posted January 6, 2020 Posted January 6, 2020 He got better in almost every important area. Short touch passes/ swing passes etc. - still some work to do but significantly better Medium passes up to 20 yds (the meat and potatoes of being a good to great NFL QB) - MASSIVELY better! Reading defenses - Significantly better (clearly following progressions and staying in the pocket much more regularly, and looking to throw when on the run) Throwing on the run - Major improvements in accuracy here as well as decision making. Interceptable passes - decent improvement (as a gunslinger he's always going to have some of these but in the 2nd half of the season he improved drastically). He either stayed the same or regressed at: Ball security when running (Almost a fumble per game rate needs to improve) Running (stayed the same here - he's a major threat) Long throws (he regressed here from his 1st year and needs to address this in the off season) So I am not quite sure what "% better" this makes him but he improved (quite a bit) in 5/8 areas listed. 3
billsfan1959 Posted January 6, 2020 Posted January 6, 2020 15 minutes ago, Irv said: Last year 52.8% This year 58.8% 30-40% is too high. If he could stop fumbling so much maybe he'd become elite. Completion % up 6 points (52.8 - 58.8) TD% up 1.2 % (3.1 - 4.3) INT% down 1.8% (3.8 - 2) TD/INT ratio up from 1:1 to 5:2 Adjudsted Y/A up 1.3 (5.4 - 6.7) QB rating up 17.4 (67.9 - 85.3) Generated the 6th most TDs in the NFL All while having: The highest percentage of passes dropped The 3rd most passes thrown away The 14th most passes tipped or batted down Being blitzed the 2nd most of any QB Tied for 1st on the least amount of time on blitzes, from snap to pressure/pass Being 10th in least amount of separation by receivers at the point of the catch Being 4th in the least amount of YAC by his receivers per attempt Being 6th in the least amount of YAC by his receivers per completion No other QB in the NFL comes close to ranking that low across all those categories. Just in the percentage of dropped passes, spikes, throw aways, and tipped/batted passes alone - at least 5% more of Allen's passes are dropped, spiked, thrown away, or tipped/batted than any other playoff QB, other than Brady. All the other QBs are between 8% and 10%. Josh Allen 15% Tom Brady 13% Aaron Rodgers 10% Kirk Cousins 10% Patrick Mahomes 10% Lamar Jackson 10% Jimmy Garoppolo 9% Russell Wilson 9% Carson Wentz 9% Deshaun Watson 9% Ryan Tannehill 9% Drew Brees 8% You could also see the improvement in his decision making, short to intermediate accuracy, moving through his progressions, etc. He has a long way to go; however, he has improved a lot to this point. 6 3 9
MJS Posted January 6, 2020 Posted January 6, 2020 I think he did improve, but I still think he was good last year. There seems to be a narrative that Allen was bad last year and good this year. But I don't see that. He had some good games last year where he showed franchise QB characteristics. That Vikings game, the Dolphins game, etc. I think he got more consistent this year. He also had a lot better of an oline and better WR's. He had another year in the offensive system. I think he's the same guy plus some development. Not sure what percentage difference that is. Maybe 10-15%? If 100% is elite top 5 QB, he'd be a 50% last year and maybe a 65% this year. A couple more years of such improvement bodes well for the Bills. 1
SlimShady'sSpaceForce Posted January 6, 2020 Posted January 6, 2020 25 minutes ago, Buffalo_Gal said: A lot. ?They said there'd be no math!! LOL what she said Enough to know he can improve Not enough to remove my doubt that he has to prove himself still in 2020. 1
D. L. Hot-Flamethrower Posted January 6, 2020 Posted January 6, 2020 (edited) Correct answer is 38.7%, the amount his fantasy production increased because after all that is what matters to many. Seriously though there are a lot of reasons to like your estimate of 30-40%. Even his QB Rating was up almost 30%. Although LOL his ESPN QBR dropped! great ***** stat #Whatdrought "but it feels to me like those ready to quit on him are ignoring the jump he took this year" The % breakdown of how most 2BD Fans assess JA 90% are reasonable, can see the big improvements, love the kid and his talent, realize he is a winner, he is Buffalo and committed, has some things to improve on and has shown the knack for just that, realize he is a young, inexpensive, at worst middle of the pack QB, with plenty of room for growth if given more time and better help. Realistic that he has less than 30 starts in the NFL and didn't come from a Power 5 conference...... 9% go on other teams fan sites, with fans just like themselves, who don't know a football from an avocado. But, they know one thing really well, QB Play aHHHHHH. I mean if you don't have Parick Mahomes why bother? They then "get liquored up" and go on to 2 Bills Drive after a tough loss and blame the QB for everything. Ah Yes! from the defensive not stopping the other team to poor playcalling, time management and personnel usage and lack of execution by the offensive line, to a receiver dropping the ball because it required knee bend and full extension. 1% all of the above and didn't like want him to start with, will never give it up even after a SB Win, don't know ***** about it and think they really do, come on 2BD daily in an attempt to aggravate the other 90% who are rational, lucid folks. So for you 90% ignore the trolls, pity others, and realize the Bills have a bright future if they keep trying to improve. That's all! Edited January 6, 2020 by D. L. Hot-Flamethrower 1 1
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