DK Metcalf mea culpa

[BarleyNY]

18 minutes ago, Joe in Winslow said:

 

ORLY?

 

Look strictly at production, and tell me again it was nuts.

 

Yes.  Really.  Metcalf was a risky pick not because he didn’t have a high ceiling, but because of the very real possibility that he would fail.  People can play the hindsight game all they want, but he was who he was as a prospect.  He was a supremely big, fast WR who lacked lateral agility and was very raw technically.  You do not take such a player in the top 10 because the bust rate for that kind of player is high.  Day 2?  Have at it.  
 

To his credit he has worked very hard and has improved his route running a great deal.

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

12 hours ago, Rc2catch said:

And he makes them in Seattle. I don’t see the point. We needed a lineman as well. It’s not a miss on a draft pick in year one. 

I didn’t say anything about a Draft miss, just that dk Metcalf looks much more promising and versatile than I and many others originally thought and coincidentally a number of his plays remind us all that the bills WRs aren’t very good.  
 

do you see it now? 

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

41 minutes ago, Boca BIlls said:

Beane can't find WRs... Get FA We s that you know are good.

he’s drafted 1 in the sixth round  since he started and a few UDFAs.  Not sure it’s been a draft priority for him 

[Happy]

9 hours ago, Ethan in Portland said:

Ford will be a solid lineman for years to come. Bills will get a WR in FA or draft this year.

 

We can only hope Ford will at least make a solid G.  Supposedly the draft is deep in WRs this year.

[DCOrange]

1 hour ago, BarleyNY said:

Yes.  Really.  Metcalf was a risky pick not because he didn’t have a high ceiling, but because of the very real possibility that he would fail.  People can play the hindsight game all they want, but he was who he was as a prospect.  He was a supremely big, fast WR who lacked lateral agility and was very raw technically.  You do not take such a player in the top 10 because the bust rate for that kind of player is high.  Day 2?  Have at it.  
 

To his credit he has worked very hard and has improved his route running a great deal.

 

As I said in the lead up to the draft, I would argue that aside from potential health concerns (which you and I wouldn't have a clue about), he was one of the safest prospects in the draft. At the absolute minimum, it was easy to see he'd be what he was this year: a very dangerous vertical threat and a very dangerous contested catch threat. On Day 1, he was immediately a mismatch for pretty much every corner in the NFL.

 

Obviously Seattle hopes he rounds his skillset out so that he can impact the game in more ways; but from Day 1 without improving on anything from college, he was going to be a guy that you basically pray drops the ball or you send a safety to help over the top and therefore open up the offense for everyone else.

 

Edit: That's not to say that he'd be considered a good pick in the top 10 if he never improved on anything, but his floor (aside from potential injuries) was that he was going to be a very good deep threat that opens things up for his teammates every single play. That's better than a lot of picks end up being and would have helped our offense a lot.

 

Edit x2: Also just FWIW, I did have Oliver higher on my board than DK. But DK was my next choice and both of them were top 7ish prospects IMO.

Edited January 6, 2020 by DCOrange

[PetermansRedemption]

My draft crush was Josh Allen in 2018. In 2019 it was DK Metcalf. I would have taken him at 9 if Oliver wasn’t there. Given how things shaped up I would have ran to the podium in the second round to grab him. I said it at draft time, even if your first year plan for DK was to tell him to run straight a few times a game and chuck the 50/50 ball to him, ok. Add in a few screens as well. 

[racketmaster]

Would have liked AJ Brown in  the 2nd. Maybe one of the few mistake Beane has made was trading up for Ford. Hopefully, Ford develops into a solid OT but it sure would have been nice to have had a legitimate #1 wr on the outside last week. 

[Ethan in Cleveland]

4 minutes ago, DCOrange said:

 

As I said in the lead up to the draft, I would argue that aside from potential health concerns (which you and I wouldn't have a clue about), he was one of the safest prospects in the draft. At the absolute minimum, it was easy to see he'd be what he was this year: a very dangerous vertical threat and a very dangerous contested catch threat. On Day 1, he was immediately a mismatch for pretty much every corner in the NFL.

 

Obviously Seattle hopes he rounds his skillset out so that he can impact the game in more ways; but from Day 1 without improving on anything from college, he was going to be a guy that you basically pray drops the ball or you send a safety to help over the top and therefore open up the offense for everyone else.

Dangerous vertical threat? Have you watched any Seahawks games? Very few of his catches are go routes. He catches mostly slants and WR screens. 

[DCOrange]

2 minutes ago, Ethan in Portland said:

Dangerous vertical threat? Have you watched any Seahawks games? Very few of his catches are go routes. He catches mostly slants and WR screens. 

Yes, I've watched plenty. I would expect that the majority of catches for basically every receiver are not go routes. He's still going north-south more than almost any other WR in football, and that's backed up both by the eye test and the numbers.

[BuffaloBill963]

13 hours ago, NewEra said:

Why? 

He clearly views himself as superior in some ways and gets off on people actually showing humility. 

[Ethan in Cleveland]

2 hours ago, Joe in Winslow said:

 

Please prove that statement.

 

He had two really good games, and the rest of the year did next to nothing.

 

Could he become a good rotational DT? Sure. Is that worth a #9 pick? I doubt it.

 

DT takes a few years to devleop. I didn’t like the pick but iti s far too soon to say it wasn't worth the pick

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

1 minute ago, Ethan in Portland said:

DT takes a few years to devleop. I didn’t like the pick but iti s far too soon to say it wasn't worth the pick

 

If the first sentence is true, then wasting a #9 pick on a player who won't make an impact for three years at THIS stage of the rebuild was an error.

 

[Ethan in Cleveland]

7 minutes ago, DCOrange said:

Yes, I've watched plenty. I would expect that the majority of catches for basically every receiver are not go routes. He's still going north-south more than almost any other WR in football, and that's backed up both by the eye test and the numbers.

He is a physically dominant player the Bills always seem to lack. OJ, Bruce, Mario, and maybe TO are a small handful of players that were able to dominate by shear physicality in Bills uniform. Bills need that type of player at WR.

[Don Otreply]

 I just want the team to be successful,  and frankly the team was successful this past season. ( not as much as I would like) Me, I don’t dwell on stuff like,  wish we shoulda done this or that... smh, to many variables in play to think a given choice in the past would change outcomes in a way one thinks it will is a vain endeavor. 

 

Go Bills!!!

[Ethan in Cleveland]

Just now, Joe in Winslow said:

 

If the first sentence is true, then wasting a #9 pick on a player who won't make an impact for three years at THIS stage of the rebuild was an error.

 

How do you figure that, they were a four win team last year and have a second year QB. If Beane and McD have done anything it is to say they are building for long term success. 
 

That said I would have traded up for Josh Allen OLB or traded down. 

[HeHateMe]

bUT ThE CoNe DriLL MaN!!

[AlCowlingsTaxiService]

14 hours ago, Boatdrinks said:

You should dwell on this for the next five years or so at least. 

You know we passed on Gronk for Torell Troup, right?

[BarleyNY]

36 minutes ago, DCOrange said:

 

As I said in the lead up to the draft, I would argue that aside from potential health concerns (which you and I wouldn't have a clue about), he was one of the safest prospects in the draft. At the absolute minimum, it was easy to see he'd be what he was this year: a very dangerous vertical threat and a very dangerous contested catch threat. On Day 1, he was immediately a mismatch for pretty much every corner in the NFL.

 

Obviously Seattle hopes he rounds his skillset out so that he can impact the game in more ways; but from Day 1 without improving on anything from college, he was going to be a guy that you basically pray drops the ball or you send a safety to help over the top and therefore open up the offense for everyone else.

 

Edit: That's not to say that he'd be considered a good pick in the top 10 if he never improved on anything, but his floor (aside from potential injuries) was that he was going to be a very good deep threat that opens things up for his teammates every single play. That's better than a lot of picks end up being and would have helped our offense a lot.

 

Edit x2: Also just FWIW, I did have Oliver higher on my board than DK. But DK was my next choice and both of them were top 7ish prospects IMO.

His neck injuries were definitely a concern to those of us without access to his medicals as you note.  Even if that checked out I can’t believe that you’d consider him a safe pick.  Elite speed and ability to outmuscle corners, yes.  In spades.  But coupled with suspect hands, terrible lateral agility and inexperience as a route runner he definitely carried a fair bit of risk.  If we’d have flipped 74 and 96 for a late 2nd round pick and taken him, I’d have applauded it.  But at 9, hell no.  Incidentally, if he would’ve been our pick at 9 I don’t think we’d be looking at him nearly as favorably.  A top 10 pick at WR should be a lock to be a dominant, game changing player.  A quality WR, sure, but I don’t see top 10 pick. 
 

Incidentally Oliver was the best prospect I thought we’d have a chance to get at 9.  The Simmons injury really put getting a top DT in jeopardy.  I was ecstatic we got Oliver at 9.  I had a clump if players rated similarly if he’d have gone at 8 and we couldn’t move back. 

Edited January 6, 2020 by BarleyNY

[Motor26]

12 minutes ago, Joe in Winslow said:

 

If the first sentence is true, then wasting a #9 pick on a player who won't make an impact for three years at THIS stage of the rebuild was an error.

 

 

This stage in the rebuild? You mean like the first year they were going to be competitive? The window just opened up for the Bills. Oliver will develop.

[mannc]

As pissed off as I was that we didn’t take Metcalf when he was available in round 2, I’d feel even worse if I had spent a late first round pick on a WR and it turned out to be N’Keal Harry.