To All the People Saying They Went Into a Shell up 16-0...You're Missing the Strategy

[Ray Stonada]

About the Gore run at the end of the first half: I hated the call at the time. Gave away two downs, when we could have taken two more shots at the endzone. And the coaches are getting lots of flak for it on this board.

 

BUT, according to the Buffalo News, it was AN AUDIBLE BY JOSH ALLEN, NOT A PRIMARY PLAY CALL:

 

"Late in the first half, the Bills faced first down from the Texans’ 23 with 30 seconds left. It was a three-receiver set against a light Texans’ box. Allen audibled – probably out of a pass – to a Gore run off left tackle. The Bills had the numbers at the point of attack to make the play work, behind left tackle Dion Dawkins and tight end Lee Smith, with Duke Williams cracking back. But given the audible, it looked like there was a communication mixup, and none of the three picked up safety Mike Adams, who was unblocked off the edge. If Adams gets picked up, that play breaks for good yards. Allen was forced to spike the ball, bringing the clock down to 14 seconds."

 

I think that's worth keeping in mind when criticizing Daboll or McDermott.

 

[LABILLBACKER]

How is a 16 pt lead 3 possessions? First dumb assumption in this thread. Also of all teams to know better than to sit on a lead and go full throttle conservative,  you think the Bills would harken back to what they did to the Oilers in 93. The bottom line is McD has done this " curl up in a shell" routine since day 1. It's who he is and it will not bode well if he doesn't change this misguided philosophy. 

Edited January 6, 2020 by LABILLBACKER

[BillsMafia13]

16 hours ago, eSJayDee said:

It seems our strategy is to try & win games 17-13.  I was saying in the 3rd quarter we need over 20 pts to win.

Our TD on the 1st drive was largely a result of 2 plats where we had the Dee fooled.  After that drive?  Only FGs.  You're not going to win too many games against good competition in today's NFL scoring less than 20 points.

Probably wrong but I feel like every single game except the eagles was within one td. We gotta stop playing to level of our competition. We shoulda closed the game out 8 times Sunday. Also why tf is lee smith still on th is team 

Edited January 6, 2020 by BillsMafia13

[HardyBoy]

30 minutes ago, LABILLBACKER said:

How is a 16 pt lead 3 possessions? First dumb assumption in this thread. Also of all teams to know better than to sit on a lead and go full throttle conservative,  you think the Bills would harken back to what they did to the Oilers in 93. The bottom line is McD has done this " curl up in a shell" routine since day 1. It's who he is and it will not bode well if he doesn't change this misguided philosophy. 

 

Lol, let's be careful throwing the word dumb around so freely (I kid and it's early out your way ). It's not a 3 possession game, 19 points would have made it 3 possessions and that is the entire point of this thread. The strategy at 16-0 had to be to get it to 3 possessions first and foremost, even if that meant running a draw on 3rd and 5 from the 35 as a hypothetical.

[SirAndrew]

17 hours ago, Mr. WEO said:

No one is talking about pitching a shutout.  
 

we are talking about a taking a 3 score lead Galway into the 3rd Q and blowing it.  
 

Big difference m.  Yeah the Offense was anemic since Dallas.  But any decent D doesn’t let a team it has on the canvas for a standing 8 count get back up and knock you out.

 

 

I agree.

 

But that D shut down the Bills when it mattered while their Offense was slapping that top 5 D

16-0 can be a two score game, and you stated that elite D’s don’t give up a shutout. I kind of assumed that you were talking about pitching a shutout. I get your point, I just don’t trust defense to carry a team every week in the NFL. Both sides of the ball need to step up at various times. We had an offense that was rarely capable of stepping up this season. 

Edited January 6, 2020 by SirAndrew

[Trogdor]

18 hours ago, Georgia Bill said:

That should be the goal, but look at the games this weekend:

22-19 Houston, 20-13 Tennessee (really 14-13 if you don't count the last play pick 6), 17-9 Seattle, and 26-20 Minnesota.   Every game was pretty defense oriented, with high powered offenses struggling to get points.  We were in one of those games and just came up a little short.

The only team in that grouping with a bottom half defense is Houston. We had the easiest game for the offense and they did what they did all season. Even Tyrod's offense averaged 21 points per game. 

[Mr. WEO]

1 hour ago, SirAndrew said:

16-0 can be a two score game, and you stated that elite D’s don’t give up a shutout. I kind of assumed that you were talking about pitching a shutout. I get your point, I just don’t trust defense to carry a team every week in the NFL. Both sides of the ball need to step up at various times. We had an offense that was rarely capable of stepping up this season. 

 

We all know the struggles of this Offense, yet we also heard all season about the elite nature of the Defense. 

 

This O handed the D a 16-0 lead mid 3rd Q.  They allowed 19 points in 24 minutes.  The Offense then tied it back up for OT.

 

A Defense this good has to be able to save a 16 point lead for a quarter and a half to close out a playoff game.

[dave mcbride]

22 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

I told @GunnerBill this earlier in the week:

 

I don't think any of us are missing McDermott's strategy, we just think it's a bad one in today's NFL.

 

Today's NFL is built around the offense. The rules themselves favor the offense. In-game playcalling should never change unless it absolutely has to because either it's not working (clearly not the case based on our 1st half) or you've fallen seriously behind (which we didn't).

 

On top of that, it's probably a bad idea to veer away from things that have worked for your offense recently, and with that I'm talking about the no-huddle we'd been using with Daboll talking into Allen's headset about coverage and what he saw as long as he could.

 

I fear that McDermott isn't ideal for the new NFL. He's good enough that he'll keep his job I think. But his coaching mentality and approach is always going to leave open the risk of good opposing QBs doing exactly what Watson did yesterday. 

 

And by the way, I call total BS that 3 scores is the benchmark for McDermott. I think 3 scores with a half to go would be almost acceptable as a benchmark. 

 

Almost.

 

However, McDermott wasn't playing for a 3 score lead. If he were, he wouldn't have run Gore up the middle on 1st down to end the 1st half with 30 seconds left on the Texans 23 up by 10. He would have allowed Allen to use those 30 seconds to get off 5 or 6 good plays to try to score a TD and THEN be up by 3 scores.

 

Instead, he coached like a weeny, wasted 2 downs, was almost bailed out by a great pass to the EZ that Duke couldn't come down with, we kick the FG and go into the half up by just 2 scores against one of the best QB/WR combos in the NFL.

 

Honestly the more I think about this game, the more it irritates me.

 

Allen made a bunch of mistakes and has a lot to work on this offseason. But the thing about Allen is he's not stubborn. He knows he made critical mistakes and you can expect he'll grind this offseason to fix them so he comes back better for 2020.

 

I feel like McDermott is too unaware and/or stubborn to realize that he has work to do with his gameday coaching and maybe needs to reevaluate his whole approach to the game.

 

I want a perennial winner year in and year out. McDermott's coaching doesn't set us up for that because he will always leave windows open for the other team to get back into it.

 

It was almost shameful the was after the game yesterday McDermott seemed to put the onus of the loss on Josh when he said something about Josh trying to do too much--which he did, but probably because McDermott's coaching approach forced him into it--rather than holding himself personally accountable.

 

Here's to hoping everyone gets better this offseason.

 

[JoshAllin]

defense choked, if they stop atleast one 2 pt conversion they win

[Spiderweb]

23 hours ago, HardyBoy said:

 

For sure on the 3rd and 18, but we need to wait for the All-22 before we can say too much there...could have been a blown coverage or a great play call against the defense that opened the middle if the field up. The issue is he wasn't contacted 5 yards sooner, not that they were in a shell.

The LBs, particularly Edmunds dropped too deep by at least 5- 6 yards and then seemed slow to react.

[BobbyC81]

23 hours ago, HardyBoy said:

 

They were in prevent from what I could tell, and it worked perfectly until he was able to run for a first...he caught the ball in the middle of the field 10 yards or so from a first down with the entire defense ready to swarm and tackle him short by 5 yards...they were too far away though...why is the question, I'm thinking that was on players and not coaches...again, the ball went to the exact spot you would want in that situation to force a 4th down.

 

Obviously the play called for the other receivers  to go deep

[Buffalo Barbarian]

20 hours ago, HardyBoy said:

 

How is trying to extend the lead to three scores just sitting on the lead?

 

That was their regular d...that's the point, someone said earlier it was a standard cover 4 defense, not prevent. From what I've gathered Edmunds dropped too far back, which was a mistake by a player, and a mistake in the playcall. 

 

The receiver catching the ball 10 yards from the first with the entire defense ready to swarm is exactly what you want...Edmunds got too far away to swarm, he didn't cover his responsibility from the sound of it...he'll learn.

 

because TDS wins FGs do not.

 

 

[Turk71]

 After the Bills took the lead 16-0 halfway through the 3rd qtr Devon Singletary was handed the ball 3 times, despite being nearly unstoppable to that point. The Bills threw 24 times and in addition took 3 sacks from 16-0 till the end of the game, while Singletary carried 3 times.

  In overtime the Bills did not hand the ball off even once. WTF

It might be a bit more understandable if they were just having too much success throwing the ball, but they weren't. 

  Hard to understand the offensive philosophy there. Another thing difficult to understand is Gore getting more carries than Singletary for the season despite averaging 3.5 yds/carry to Singletary's 5.1 yds/carry. Singletary lost 1 fumble for the year. It is hard not to think that these guys don't know what they are doing on offense. 

[transplantbillsfan]

@Coach Tuesday and @GunnerBill are saying that Frank Gore run in the game Saturday was on Allen, but today when asked specifically about that end-of-half debacle McDermott said that it was "a series of calls we'd like to have back."

 

That sure sounds like playcalling.

 

Apparently there's evidence that somehow Allen is responsible? Is there a clip to post.

[GunnerBill]

1 hour ago, transplantbillsfan said:

@Coach Tuesday and @GunnerBill are saying that Frank Gore run in the game Saturday was on Allen, but today when asked specifically about that end-of-half debacle McDermott said that it was "a series of calls we'd like to have back."

 

That sure sounds like playcalling.

 

Apparently there's evidence that somehow Allen is responsible? Is there a clip to post.

 

I have not quite said that. I have said Allen killed the original play call and checked into the Gore run. I am useless at cutting up and posting clips it is beyond my technical skills but go back and watch it. Allen very cleary shouts "Kill, kill" and changes the play. 

 

Who is "responsible" is a different thing. To me there are three likely scenarios: 

 

1. There was a confusion between Allen and the coaches about how they were planning to use the final timeout and Josh thought he was fine to check to the run because we'd just call timeout there (there is an argument that is what we should have done as the more effective clock management strategy). Given that this play came right after the 2nd timeout if this was the case the responsibility is certainly not all on Josh. 

 

2. There was a very specific play call (maybe even a trick play) that Josh has been told all season or at least all week in practice "if the defense does this then you have to check out of it." Josh saw that look and checked without thinking about game scenario to a run. Again responsibility here would be shared because there was ample time at the prior timeout to communicate the plan to Josh and say "look if its not there snap it and throw it away."

 

3. There was a plan communicated for how to play from that point and Josh just froze in the moment lost himself and checked to a run. 

 

Of the three I think looking at the way Josh strolls back from the line after the play I think 1 is most likely because until the sideline starts barking "clock, clock" Josh doesn't look like he is about to clock it. But all of those are possible. What is very clear is the Gore run was not the original call. Gore was almost certainly on the field in that scenario as the superior pass blocker and it was checked to a run. 

 

As for what McDermott said.... I don't think that proves anything either way. One of the best things about Sean McDermott is he is accountable. The buck stops with him and he understands that. Even if it was sceanrio 3 as set out above if you think McDermott is going to come out and say "yea Brian had a good call and Josh checked out of it into that stupid run" then you don't have a very good feel for who McDermott is. When he says "we would like them back" that we is on everybody and ultimately on him. 

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

On 1/5/2020 at 4:33 PM, HardyBoy said:

 

They were in prevent from what I could tell, and it worked perfectly until he was able to run for a first...he caught the ball in the middle of the field 10 yards or so from a first down with the entire defense ready to swarm and tackle him short by 5 yards...they were too far away though...why is the question, I'm thinking that was on players and not coaches...again, the ball went to the exact spot you would want in that situation to force a 4th down.

mcdermott sort of hinted about young players and situational awareness playing into them dropping too deep 

Edited January 8, 2020 by Over 29 years of fanhood

[Z-Mann]

On 1/5/2020 at 3:18 PM, HardyBoy said:

The only goal there is to get up by three scores, period, end of story. They were in perfect position to do that before the Watt sack and Allen got rattled after that, which happens and impacted everything that came after it...and they still almost won. Put away the pitchforks.

 

That was the biggest game of Josh Allen's life he'll learn from this. Shoot it took Lebron James getting posted up by JJ Barea and the Mavs to learn the lessons that allowed him to mentally excel in that level of stress and expectation.

 

Slightly disagree with the, "he will learn from it" part.  Just because a mistake happens doesn't necessarily mean that learning WILL take place and will be absorbed.  For example, earlier in the season when Josh had some fumbling problems, we could have said after each one, "well, he learned from that".  Yet he continued his fumbling issues throughout the season and into the playoffs.  On the other hand, it looks like he may have learned something from the interceptions that he's thrown because he took care of the ball much better the second half of the season.

 

That's all I got.  Just because mistakes happens does not necessarily equate to learning and improving on said mistake.

[transplantbillsfan]

11 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I have not quite said that. I have said Allen killed the original play call and checked into the Gore run. I am useless at cutting up and posting clips it is beyond my technical skills but go back and watch it. Allen very cleary shouts "Kill, kill" and changes the play. 

 

Who is "responsible" is a different thing. To me there are three likely scenarios: 

 

1. There was a confusion between Allen and the coaches about how they were planning to use the final timeout and Josh thought he was fine to check to the run because we'd just call timeout there (there is an argument that is what we should have done as the more effective clock management strategy). Given that this play came right after the 2nd timeout if this was the case the responsibility is certainly not all on Josh. 

 

2. There was a very specific play call (maybe even a trick play) that Josh has been told all season or at least all week in practice "if the defense does this then you have to check out of it." Josh saw that look and checked without thinking about game scenario to a run. Again responsibility here would be shared because there was ample time at the prior timeout to communicate the plan to Josh and say "look if its not there snap it and throw it away."

 

3. There was a plan communicated for how to play from that point and Josh just froze in the moment lost himself and checked to a run. 

 

Of the three I think looking at the way Josh strolls back from the line after the play I think 1 is most likely because until the sideline starts barking "clock, clock" Josh doesn't look like he is about to clock it. But all of those are possible. What is very clear is the Gore run was not the original call. Gore was almost certainly on the field in that scenario as the superior pass blocker and it was checked to a run. 

 

As for what McDermott said.... I don't think that proves anything either way. One of the best things about Sean McDermott is he is accountable. The buck stops with him and he understands that. Even if it was sceanrio 3 as set out above if you think McDermott is going to come out and say "yea Brian had a good call and Josh checked out of it into that stupid run" then you don't have a very good feel for who McDermott is. When he says "we would like them back" that we is on everybody and ultimately on him. 

 

I really doubt it's #3.

 

#1 and #2 go back, in large part, to coaching.

 

Communicate with your friggin young QB who's making just his 28th start in the NFL and playing in his 1st playoff game ever... and on the road.

 

Coaches need to get much better.  Allen does, too, but I'm less worried about a 23 year old malleable and willing kid to turn inward and really aim to improve than a 45 year old Head Coach who's initial blame after the game was turned directly outward on his QB and officiating rather than inward on himself.

 

It took a few days, but I'm over the season now.  Reflecting back and forward, I have more confidence in Allen improving his obvious flaws this offseason than I do the coaches in fixing their's, and that ends up really sucking for Allen's progression along with the whole team, obviously.

[GunnerBill]

20 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

I really doubt it's #3.

 

#1 and #2 go back, in large part, to coaching.

 

Communicate with your friggin young QB who's making just his 28th start in the NFL and playing in his 1st playoff game ever... and on the road.

 

Coaches need to get much better.  Allen does, too, but I'm less worried about a 23 year old malleable and willing kid to turn inward and really aim to improve than a 45 year old Head Coach who's initial blame after the game was turned directly outward on his QB and officiating rather than inward on himself.

 

It took a few days, but I'm over the season now.  Reflecting back and forward, I have more confidence in Allen improving his obvious flaws this offseason than I do the coaches in fixing their's, and that ends up really sucking for Allen's progression along with the whole team, obviously.

 

I differ on your final paragraph. To me of the Bills big 3 (GM, HC, QB) Sean McDermott is by far the one who is most proven to be good at his job and my confidence level with him outstrips that with Beane or Allen. 

 

As for it coming back in some part to coaching, I know. I said that. You confused me saying Daboll didn't call the Gore run with me saying Daboll bears no responsibility for the Gore run (something I never said). 

[Gugny]

On our way to going up 16-0, Devin Singletary ran the ball 9 times for 45 yards.

 

After going up 16-0, the play selection was 26 pass/5 run.

 

If I did something that mind-numbingly stupid at my job, I'd be fired almost immediately.