The Bills Formula For Winning in 2019 Was Never Sustainable For Playoffs

[NoSaint]

8 minutes ago, Maine-iac said:

Smith and Gore are "reliable".  There are a number of plays where no one was blocked.  I want to know who's causing that.  Is Allen not responsible for spotting that?  If not Allen then who on the OL is not spotting that?  Why are people running completely unblocked into the backfield as much as they are.  The number of plays (running and passing) that blockers completely fail to block anyone is alarming.  Granted outside of Morse and Dawkins I'm not sure we have an OL player I'd pencil in as the starter for next season right now.  I'm no OL coach but many had Ford projecting as a guard and he was fairly well regarded when drafted but I'm going to say I sure hope we draft a tackle early next year.

People are going to break it down with stats both on offense and defense.  Truth is we could have won.  One or two plays on offense or defense and we could have won.  That is what the Pats had (I love saying it in past tense).  The killer instinct to take the victory.  If you didn't absolutely put your foot on their throat they'd find a way to win.  It was there, we just didn't take it.

In it’s simplest terms the defense finished above average but not perfect. The offense was below average. It’s not any kind of oddball slicing of stats or anything. It’s who we have been. It’s hard to expect the defense to always win.

6 minutes ago, Doc said:

 

Look, Josh had over 370 yards of offense in this game.  He wasn't perfect but he got the Bills to OT and didn't throw the "blindside block" to knock them out of FG range or give up the first down on 3rd and 18.  Never mind the nullifying the TD on the return, the horrible officiating on the blindside block or lack of calls on Watt for RTP of that Texans defender for the helmet to helmet hit on that final drive.

what were his passing stats through 5 quarters against one of the worst pass defenses in the league?

[Hapless Bills Fan]

40 minutes ago, NoSaint said:

In the “collapse” they allowed 22 points in 3 quarters which is about average play for this league (24 and change across 4 being average). They also had a HUGE stop to get us the ball and a chance to win at the end of regulation, in a position they shouldn’t have been put in. 
 

It’s definitely a step down from pitching a shutout the first half but if the need is to shut out good opponents there’s a problem.
 

they were not perfect but the step back from GREAT, to relatively average, shouldn’t be the focal point of the discussion about what went wrong when our only TD In 5 quarters came on a busted coverage on a trick play.

 

the defense missed a few steps in the dance but wasn’t bad overall. The long conversion is an ugly play to point but perfection isn’t the expectation.  The offense stepped on toes, fell a few times and soiled themselves in the end.

 

Saint, average D won't get it done in the playoffs.  Everyone knows that, including McDermott, Frazier, and the D

 

To Phil's original point in his OP which is valid, the Bills formula for winning all season (shut-down D, just enough offense), I think, showed that it is NOT sustainable or sufficient to win in the playoffs or against the best teams.

 

They don't need to "shut out" good opponents, but there's space between giving up 2 TD drives plus a FG and a "shut out".  They absolutely played a major role in the loss, especially some key missed tackles and poor coverages in the 2nd half and OT.

 

Both sides of the ball "soiled themselves" IMO.  It was a true team loss.  It's also apparently a Rorschach test for bringing up people's biases.

 

 

[Meatloaf63]

7 minutes ago, NoSaint said:

In it’s simplest terms the defense finished above average but not perfect. The offense was below average. It’s not any kind of oddball slicing of stats or anything. It’s who we have been. It’s hard to expect the defense to always win.

what were his passing stats through 5 quarters against one of the worst pass defenses in the league?

How many passes in scoring position were dropped? How many Jailbreak  pass rushes did he face? Why are we running Gore in 2nd and long positions inside the 30? Why until we got behind did we only throw 6 times in the second half? Why didn’t we run at all in overtime? You’re a broken record and a bad record at that.....

[Augie]

2 hours ago, Heitz said:

Lotta truths in this thread.  Bottom line for me, is that we need more talent on the O, stat.

 

There will be endless threads and plenty of whining, but I think anyone who was paying attention knew we still needed more talent on offense. I’m good with what they accomplished this season, and always felt we were still one season away from being a serious challenger. 

[Phil The Thrill]

33 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

So then you need to address the paradox that when they do "put it on his shoulders", he either comes through or comes very close.  He got us in position to tie the game and send it to OT.  He got it down to the last play against the Ravens and NE where arguably a better route and a jump ball receiver might win it.

 

If anything, that would argue that the "trying to hide him" (if that's what the coaches are doing) is mistaken. 

 

How many pass plays were called in the 2nd half?  How many rush plays?  How successful were the pass plays?  How successful were the rush plays? 

 

 

You need to present an argument that it's Josh that's the issue here.  So far, you haven't.  It's just a repeated assertion.  "Josh hasn't been able to keep up with".  But then the paradoxical assertion that the coaches go all conservative and run run run because they're hiding Josh (who can't keep up, but doesn't get the chance, until he does then sometimes he can and sometimes he can't?) 

 

I can't keep up (with your line of reasoning)

 

 

And you're entitled to your opinion, but if you're going to state it over and over again, it needs to have something more given behind it.  Allen generated something like 82% of our offense yesterday.  361 out of 425 yards.  He took a bad sack and a bad fumble.  He also had crap protection by our OL most of the day and WR who couldn't get their feet down or hang on to a ball.

 

He has improved in a number of measurable metrics through the season.  His fumbling is a problem he needs to address, and he needs to take another step with accuracy.  It's always been reasonable to question whether he'll turn the corner and become a better QB, because when a player has a problem, sometimes they fix it, and sometimes they don't.

 

But what exactly is there about last night that's such a revelation?

 

 

He has improved a number of measurable metrics but that still puts him in the bottom half of the league in those measurable metrics.  
 

I just thought that last night was a great opportunity for Allen to turn the corner and to put up points against a weak defense, he didn’t do that.  
 

It doesn’t mean he won’t get there but yesterday was a missed opportunity for growth and some wonder whether this is Josh regressing to the mean.  Back to “Wyoming Josh.”  It doesn’t mean that’s what happened,  but this should be the #1 concern for Bills fans going forward.  

[Don Otreply]

3 hours ago, oldmanfan said:

Defense and running the ball wins playoff games.  In the second half our D let down and we quit letting Motor and Allen run.

This right here^^^

Daboll went away from what was working, and not for the first time.

 

Go Bills!!!

[Elite Poster]

3 hours ago, SoCal Deek said:

One thing I’ll remember from the year is that other than the odd game against the Eagles, the Bills never lost by more than a single score, including yesterday. That’s pretty remarkable over a long season.

 

Schedule was easy. That is why. Next year we face the NFC and AFC West. It's going to be a whole different story. No more Duck Hodges and Brandon Allen. Pat freaking Mahomes and Russell Wilson. 

[Phil The Thrill]

3 minutes ago, Elite Poster said:

 

Schedule was easy. That is why. Next year we face the NFC and AFC West. It's going to be a whole different story. No more Duck Hodges and Brandon Allen. Pat freaking Mahomes and Russell Wilson. 

I actually think the defense will be okay but they aren’t going to be able to keep teams under 20 points.  
 

That is where we need to see Josh take a step forward as a QB and essentially do what he couldn’t do last night, and the main reason why I’m concerned 

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

3 hours ago, oldmanfan said:

Defense and running the ball wins playoff games.  In the second half our D let down and we quit letting Motor and Allen run.

 

...not sure if it is as simple as that.......offensively you have to be more than a "one trick pony" IMO....ned a diversified, effective offense that allows you to take what the defense is giving you....60/40 pass-run, 40-60 pass-run or whatever, with the ability to quickly adjust.....far too inconsistent in 2019 and prematurely abandoning what is working...

[Boatdrinks]

And yet the team had a 16-0 lead on a division winner in the playoffs with less than a half of football to go. The coaches and players blew this one, there just isn’t any other way to spin it. Now, it’s quite likely that their playoff road would have ended at Arrowhead stadium . The offensive deficiencies we’ve all seen this season may have been too much to overcome. The Bills, however were not overmatched vs HOU. I will agree that going forward, offensive improvements are necessary and your premise is valid. That doesn’t excuse them from not securing the franchise’s first playoff win in 25 years this weekend. 

[clayboy54]

4 minutes ago, Elite Poster said:

 

Schedule was easy. That is why. Next year we face the NFC and AFC West. It's going to be a whole different story. No more Duck Hodges and Brandon Allen. Pat freaking Mahomes and Russell Wilson. 

Next year we won’t need an easy schedule to win the AFCE. Yes, it was nice to get this far a year ahead of schedule. Moving forward, the Bills ought to be able to hold their own against anybody, anytime.

[oldmanfan]

2 minutes ago, OldTimeAFLGuy said:

 

...not sure if it is as simple as that.......offensively you have to be more than a "one trick pony" IMO....ned a diversified, effective offense that allows you to take what the defense is giving you....60/40 pass-run, 40-60 pass-run or whatever, with the ability to quickly adjust.....far too inconsistent in 2019 and prematurely abandoning what is working...

Balance.  You're Right.  But that balance has to include the run and we gave up in that later in the game.

Edited January 5, 2020 by oldmanfan

[BringBackOrton]

1 hour ago, billsfan1959 said:

 

This is patently untrue at worst and grossly exaggerated at best.

 

 

You have been a strong critic of Allen and you are doing nothing more with this post than to say, "See how right I was?" and gloating after a loss. If what you need at this moment is to pat yourself on the back, have at it. It feels a bit unnecessary; however, it is your right.

 

 

I actually haven’t been that strong of an Allen critic. I really liked his play on the whole from NE1 onward. I just critiqued the things worth critiquing, like a few big missed passes, dumb decisions, etc.

 

And no, it’s no exaggerated. There’s 15 pages of arguments that “our defense didn’t carry us.” It’s really all out there.

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

3 hours ago, Phil The Thrill said:

After a big loss like last night, fans are obviously going to be pointing fingers.  Everyone has one unit or person to blame, and the truth it’s never just a player, a coach, or an official.  It’s usually a combination of all.  We can blame whoever we want (personally I think Allen melted down in the second half) but that’s what happened last night - a total team loss.  

 

 

It would be foolish and shortsighted to think that this is how McDermott wants to win.  I think that given how bad the offense has been, he knows that this is the Bills best chance to win, which likely explains some of the play calls.  They just don’t have an offense that can score more than 17 points, and again, I think QB play is a huge reason for this.  

 

 

Why does this happen?  It’s largely a mix between execution and playcalling.  Again, I’m going to be accused of being a “hater” or a “crusader” as it’s called in here - but I think the biggest reason why has to do with Josh Allen not having the ability (yet?) to show that he can consistently finish drives with TD’s in moments when they need him to, like Watson did last night.  While it isn’t all on Josh, his teammates have let him down too and you can argue some of the play calls haven’t put them in a good position.  
 

For the Bills to get better, this will have to improve and the team should improve the offensive talent  in the offseason again.  
 

But 2020 will be a giant year.  All the usual suspects should be back next year - McDermott, Daboll, Allen, and there won’t be any excuses next year.  
 

It’s put up or shut up and the excuses of this being “a young team that is growing” is running out.  Onto 2020.

 

...I'm not convinced that McDermott hates to win via "coach fearful"......he is a defensive guy FIRST (not to be confused with Teddy Marchibroda; ditto for Daboll).....acknowledging a weaker 2019 schedule, Daboll was FAR too inconsistent overall.....I'm just not going to buy "it's the personnel stupid"......you coach to your personnel's strengths (and of course the apologists will say, "but they have NO strengths"; um ok)......McBeane has $90+ mil available and a bevy of picks.....secondly (at least on paper so far; have no idea what transpires in off season relative to opposition rosters), 2020 schedule appears to be much tougher.....so if, IF McBeane prioritizes the offense via draft & FA, supplying McDermott with a significant talent upgrade and we're STILL stuck in "coach fearful" mode, a/k/a FG fest and <20 pts modus operandi, now what??..........

[NoSaint]

40 minutes ago, Meatloaf63 said:

How many passes in scoring position were dropped? How many Jailbreak  pass rushes did he face? Why are we running Gore in 2nd and long positions inside the 30? Why until we got behind did we only throw 6 times in the second half? Why didn’t we run at all in overtime? You’re a broken record and a bad record at that.....

his coach called it out and it’s unreasonable to acknowledge his troubles here? 
 

he had an extra quarter against a bad defense and didn’t get it done in the air. He was a bigger issue than the defense.

[billsfan1959]

3 minutes ago, BringBackOrton said:

I actually haven’t been that strong of an Allen critic. I really liked his play on the whole from NE1 onward. I just critiqued the things worth critiquing, like a few big missed passes, dumb decisions, etc.

 

And no, it’s no exaggerated. There’s 15 pages of arguments that “our defense didn’t carry us.” It’s really all out there.

My apologies then.

 

As to the other, I really don't recall arguments that the offense carried this team. I do recall discussions that it wasn't JUST the defense that carried the team - that the offense helped to win a number of those games as well, which they did. I don't think any reasonable poster would conclude that it was the offense that contributed the most to their record this year.

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

10 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

Balance.  You're Right.  But that balance has to include the run and we gave up in that later in the game.

 

 

...isn't that Dabumble's secret?.......if it's working, abandon it........"Brian, Jimmy Haslam is on line one"....................

[Bangarang]

Having a low scoring offense is usually not a recipe for sustained success.

[Phil The Thrill]

8 minutes ago, Bangarang said:

Having a low scoring offense is usually not a recipe for sustained success.

I’ve found From starting this thread that some will disagree with that 

[Elite Poster]

1 hour ago, clayboy54 said:

Next year we won’t need an easy schedule to win the AFCE. Yes, it was nice to get this far a year ahead of schedule. Moving forward, the Bills ought to be able to hold their own against anybody, anytime.

 

Scoring 19 points a game? Yeah I'll believe it when I see it.