The 50/50 Ball to...DiMarco?

[NewEra]

2 hours ago, oldmanfan said:

No I get where you’re going.  No I don’t think it was insane or whacky.  He saw DiMarco out there, thought he could make a play.  And he should have. Why is it whacky?

Because dimarco is terrible and he proved that comment correct.  He needs to go

[Hapless Bills Fan]

1 hour ago, PromoTheRobot said:

I'd be willing to bet the play wasn't designed to go to DiMarco.

 

It shouldn't have been, but also if he (or Lee) weren't realistic choices on the play and the Bills hadn't practiced it enough that he was a realistic choice....he should not have been out there.

 

Given Daboll's demonstrated love of the gadget, I would not bet.

 

[colin]

29 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

You are not the only anti-Daboll crusader. There are loads of them.

 

and we shall rescue Billsstantinople from the Caliph of no identity or consistency!

[Hapless Bills Fan]

49 minutes ago, colin said:

i was implying that formation/personal group might be a good thing to pass into if the d is fooled that you are going to run. i was kinda going for a "for some reason, they knew we weren't going to run it!!" but frankly got mad remember how much i dislike dabol.

 

The point is that formation isn't going to fool anyone that you are going to run because it was an empty backfield.  I could be wrong, but I don't believe we have ever run out of an empty backfield, with or without DiMarco and Smith on the field.  OTOH, we have passed out of that kind of formation, and sometimes even to DiMarco and to Smith.

 

 

 

[colin]

Just now, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

The point is that formation isn't going to fool anyone that you are going to run because it was an empty backfield.  I could be wrong, but I don't believe we have ever run out of an empty backfield, with or without DiMarco and Smith on the field.  OTOH, we have passed out of that kind of formation, and sometimes even to DiMarco and to Smith.

 

 

ya, that's the rub/joke.  going empty back field gives you zero advantage pre snap, can't fool anyone.  it's just going all in on your pass scheme, which maybe works when they can't sub or you have very little clock, but with unlimited time in OT, and with your RB lighting it up and your WRs dropping balls, it just makes me crazy.

[oldmanfan]

1 hour ago, Billl said:

How is a jump ball “on the money”?  By your definition, every Hail Mary is on the money.  Just because someone is capable of throwing a flutterball high enough in the air that a receiver (and multiple defenders) can camp out under it doesn’t mean the pass was good.  It was a bad throw and a worse decision.  DiMarco didn’t catch a single pass beyond the LOS all season.  He’s not Randy Moss.  He’s a blocking fullback.  That play was 100% on Josh.

 

It boggles the mind that people can watch Tom Brady win 75 straight games against the Bills precisely because he doesn’t make stupid decisions and still think that JA was playing winning football.  The Texans defense is garbage.  The Chiefs scored 51 points in a 36 minute stretch the following week.  There is absolutely no way the Texans should have won that game.  It was like both teams were trying to give the game away, and Buffalo found a way to get it done.  If New England runs that play 100 times, Brady makes the jump ball throw to the fullback exactly 0 times.  He either hits Brown as he comes out of his break (the correct read) or he checks it down to Singletary (who is one missed open field tackle away from a huge gain).  That was a well designed play that turned into a clown show.

 

There is no doubt that JA has all the physical tools to be great, but he doesn’t have the mental part figured out yet.  He may get there, and if he does, people will look back at games like this and be embarrassed by the fact that they blamed the loss on things like fullbacks not catching jump balls 40 yards downfield while sandwiched between two defensive backs.

 

 

 

 

It hit DiMarco in the hands and if he jumps a split second later it’s complete.  Denying that Allen threw it to where he could catch it is asinine. Saying it was a bad throw is equally asinine.  You can argue the choice but he put it where the receiver should have caught it.

 

Could he have checked it down?  Yes.  Does he need to continue developing his ability to read defenses.  Yes.  I’ve said that repeatedly so try reading what people actually write.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

13 minutes ago, colin said:

ya, that's the rub/joke.  going empty back field gives you zero advantage pre snap, can't fool anyone.  it's just going all in on your pass scheme, which maybe works when they can't sub or you have very little clock, but with unlimited time in OT, and with your RB lighting it up and your WRs dropping balls, it just makes me crazy.

 

The Bills do it because it helps them decode the coverage.  I understand that's why they do it (although I don't like it).

 

I just feel that the best players for a situation should be on the field, and when it's a pass play, those players are NOT named Smith and DiMarco.

[Rochesterfan]

5 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

You can think what you like, obviously, but that's kind of a strange interpretation of Allen's behavior on the play, which is of a QB who knows he has time to let the play develop and is waiting on a route to develop.  You might not like the decision making, but "panic" isn't part of it. (By the way, are you thinking that was a run play?  You write a bit as though you think it was intended to fool the defense with a heavy set, but it was an empty backfield, pass play all the way).

 

I would have liked to see him look Singletary's way, but we don't know what the reads were in the play design and how Allen was coached to execute it.  We DO know that Daboll loves him his gadgets - his "big man" TDs to Lee Smith or Dawkins, his John Brown passing, his squib of a gadget play vs Pittsburgh where Gore was supposed to pass. 

 

Given that, it's entirely plausible to me that DiMarco was the primary read on the 2nd down play and Allen was coached that if you have time and see this shot, take it.  It's quite possible that they gave DiMarco high reps during the week and executed that play 18 of 20 times in practice.  Singletary in that play design (for all my joking about giving him a fiberglass pole and and orange flag) was probably the checkdown or hot read, and typically you don't want a QB to take the checkdown  if he has a shot downfield - that is a complaint made about many a young QB.

 

As play design, I personally hate it.  I don't think having DiMarco and Smith in on that package fooled Houston at all - I think they were 100% coached to prevent a deep pass completion in that situation, and that putting a better receiver downfield would have given the play a better chance to succeed.  What would be wrong with having Knox and Williams in there instead of DiMarco and Smith?

I think if a team is that predictable about NOT taking the checkdown to a talented player like Singletary that you give him that much cushion, why not take it, give him a chance to burn the other team and keep taking it until the other team proves they can stop it (at the cost of leaving something else more open).

 

I understand this, but I believe Cover 1 has talked about this multiple times during the season.  Bringing in DiMarco and Smith - should make the defense move to a base package.  This should be a running package as you have a blocking TE and a FB.  The idea is to force them into a base package by personnel and then by spreading that out - by who covers DiMarco- the QB should immediately know the coverage.  
 

Using Knox rather than DiMarco you put more of a receiving threat, but it also does not necessarily force the team to show coverage.  They can play man with a safety on Knox or rotate and play zone.  They are not covering Knox with a LB and that is a dead clue for coverage with DiMarco in the game.

 

I totally agree Houston was not fooled and I do not think Dabol got the defense he wanted.  It looks like Houston dropped 9 with man/zone concepts which I think is what confused Josh.  Even with all of that - If Josh stays with the read - he has Brown open - which appears to be the design.  If Josh was uncomfortable with Brown - there was the backside read of Singletary, but I think with the pre-snap read that play was supposed to go right and to Brown.  If he felt it was not there - I wish he had pulled it down and run it with the 9 guys dropping he had some lanes.  At no time do I believe the throw to DiMarco was planned - I feel that was Josh not feeling the throw to Brown and seeing an open lane to DiMarco.  
 

I believe next year the Bills have more plays off this - most importantly if they do not get the base coverage they want - pull DiMarco and Smith into a conventional formation and smash the ball at them.  I think in the chess match of the game - Buffalo on that play did not get what they expected and did not have the ability for Josh to get them out of the bad play and into a good play against the defense.  
 

I also think it is a sign of the play design that even not getting the right defense for the play - the design still had 2 guys get open and if executed by the QB better - the play should have been successful.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

1 hour ago, Rochesterfan said:

I understand this, but I believe Cover 1 has talked about this multiple times during the season.  Bringing in DiMarco and Smith - should make the defense move to a base package.  This should be a running package as you have a blocking TE and a FB.  The idea is to force them into a base package by personnel and then by spreading that out - by who covers DiMarco- the QB should immediately know the coverage.  
 

Using Knox rather than DiMarco you put more of a receiving threat, but it also does not necessarily force the team to show coverage.  They can play man with a safety on Knox or rotate and play zone.  They are not covering Knox with a LB and that is a dead clue for coverage with DiMarco in the game.

 

I totally agree Houston was not fooled and I do not think Dabol got the defense he wanted.  It looks like Houston dropped 9 with man/zone concepts which I think is what confused Josh.  Even with all of that - If Josh stays with the read - he has Brown open - which appears to be the design.  If Josh was uncomfortable with Brown - there was the backside read of Singletary, but I think with the pre-snap read that play was supposed to go right and to Brown.  If he felt it was not there - I wish he had pulled it down and run it with the 9 guys dropping he had some lanes.  At no time do I believe the throw to DiMarco was planned - I feel that was Josh not feeling the throw to Brown and seeing an open lane to DiMarco.  
 

I believe next year the Bills have more plays off this - most importantly if they do not get the base coverage they want - pull DiMarco and Smith into a conventional formation and smash the ball at them.  I think in the chess match of the game - Buffalo on that play did not get what they expected and did not have the ability for Josh to get them out of the bad play and into a good play against the defense.  
 

I also think it is a sign of the play design that even not getting the right defense for the play - the design still had 2 guys get open and if executed by the QB better - the play should have been successful.

 

Really good post, Thank you. 

 

I don't know why Josh didn't throw to Brown.  Maybe someone who is better than I am at diagnosing plays can take a look and tell us if there's some reason he isn't as open as he appears.  Is Josh concerned someone can jump the throw to Brown? 

 

Or is it a hero ball moment?

 

 

[Rochesterfan]

57 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Really good post, Thank you. 

 

I don't know why Josh didn't throw to Brown.  Maybe someone who is better than I am at diagnosing plays can take a look and tell us if there's some reason he isn't as open as he appears.  Is Josh concerned someone can jump the throw to Brown? 

 

Or is it a hero ball moment?

 

 

 

I am sure someone with more knowledge can give a better assessment, but to me - I think they did not get the defense they expected at all.  Probably because of the time of the game and the situation, but I think that confused Josh from before the snap.

 

Typically you would expect either a man defense or a Zone defense and you make your read.  It looks to me like Houston dropped 9 into coverage with a man/zone combo.  Therefore I think Josh did not trust his read and fell back into college ball.  I don’t know if it is “hero ball”, but it was see a guy and throw it.  He did not look to me like he was “reading” the defense - I think he was confused and it was not the way they practiced it and you then revert to what you have done.

 

As an aside - I was watching a Peyton’s Place on ESPN + and there was a great discussion with Steve Young about his development and how it took him forever to “trust” what he read and trust his throws and it really happened when his coach - I think it was McCarthy - told him he did not need to see to throw.  They asked him to start making some blind passes in practice and trust his guys would be there.  That propelled him to trust throws that early in his career he would never have attempted.  I think this is what you see with many young QBs - they do not trust yet.  I also think it is why Mahomes has had the success he has had.  He trust his throws and it allows his guys to make plays.  It is also why Brady struggled this year - after years of being able to trust and know where WRs and TEs are going - suddenly he lacked that and he ended up spiking the ball so much.
 

 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

12 minutes ago, Rochesterfan said:

I am sure someone with more knowledge can give a better assessment, but to me - I think they did not get the defense they expected at all.  Probably because of the time of the game and the situation, but I think that confused Josh from before the snap.

 

Typically you would expect either a man defense or a Zone defense and you make your read.  It looks to me like Houston dropped 9 into coverage with a man/zone combo.  Therefore I think Josh did not trust his read and fell back into college ball.  I don’t know if it is “hero ball”, but it was see a guy and throw it.  He did not look to me like he was “reading” the defense - I think he was confused and it was not the way they practiced it and you then revert to what you have done.

 

As an aside - I was watching a Peyton’s Place on ESPN + and there was a great discussion with Steve Young about his development and how it took him forever to “trust” what he read and trust his throws and it really happened when his coach - I think it was McCarthy - told him he did not need to see to throw.  They asked him to start making some blind passes in practice and trust his guys would be there.  That propelled him to trust throws that early in his career he would never have attempted.  I think this is what you see with many young QBs - they do not trust yet.  I also think it is why Mahomes has had the success he has had.  He trust his throws and it allows his guys to make plays.  It is also why Brady struggled this year - after years of being able to trust and know where WRs and TEs are going - suddenly he lacked that and he ended up spiking the ball so much.

 

I thought he seemed to be looking at McKenzie and at Brown.

 

The puzzling thing to me is that when the QB is confused or doesn't get the look he wants....isn't that when the checkdown is supposed to be the option? 

 

And there is Singletary, all alone over there, saying "show me some loooooove...."

 

Josh's rookie season, there was a game Romo did....might have been the Chargers...Josh threw a pick and Romo told an anecdote about one of his coaches telling him "I want you to throw two picks today".  His point wasn't that his coach really wanted him to throw two picks, his point was that his coach didn't want him to be paralyzed by the fear of throwing a pick, he wanted him to make his read, trust what he saw,  and take his shot.

 

I think Daboll is taking a different development direction with Josh....I think he is demanding that he NOT throw unless he's sure what he sees and that he NOT throw picks.  The hope is that as Josh develops, he will become more confident and that this is a better development path to enforce than the Jameis Winston pathway of having a guy who reads and reacts and throws 30 picks and 33 TDs.

 

I also believe that at this point, Josh in fact doesn't always trust and know where his WR and TE are going.  The whole principle of the offense Daboll runs, as I understand it, is that the WR "read" the defense and choose a route variation, and Josh reads both the defense and the WR's body language to determine what route he will run.  I think some of the things we look at that appear to be inaccurate throws, are actually miscues between Josh and the TE or WR (others are simply inaccurate of course).  Knox and Singletary are rookies; the offense is new to Brown; Beasley has done this before but not in this offense.

 

Anyway, if Josh is confused about the coverage and he can't definitively read his WR's body language, it would follow he might not pull the trigger because he in fact, does NOT know where his WR is going to be. 

 

But damn, Singletary

 

 

 

[BigBillsFan]

On 1/28/2020 at 8:10 PM, LABILLBACKER said:

I'm more disappointed Dimarco is still on this team than some stupid hail mary thrown to him. He's the Chris Kelsay of this Bills era.

 

I'm a bit disappointed in that comment, almost sad. Ryan Denney made Chris Kelsay All-Pro in case you forgot. It was the Bills love of DEs in the 2nd round. How romantic.