The 50/50 Ball to...DiMarco?

[PIZ]

27 minutes ago, T master said:

Wasn't this also the play that Singletary was wide open on the L side line that Josh just missed entirely ? ?

 

Do you remember how much time was left in the game / OT when that happened?  I would love to see a replay.

[Warcodered]

1 hour ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

2nd down: the deep bomb to Dimarco.  Houston only rushed 2, so there were 9 guys in coverage.  Doesn't look like Dimarco was Josh's first read, but it also doesn't look as though he ever gives Singletary a glance who (as he often is) is PAINFULLY open.  It also appears to me that Brown comes open across the middle before Josh throws, but by then Josh has drifted to the left and may not have a clear lane to him.  But here is Singletary, earlier in the play, near the 30 yd line with no unblocked defender within 7 yds:

I mean there is a guy probably covering him (21) right around 7 yards away which I'm guessing gets closer if Allen turns and throws to him. Two other unblocked guys on that side of the field. I mean I wouldn't doubt Singletary could of gotten some yards there but I'm also curious what the situation in the game was.

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

27 minutes ago, PIZ said:

 

Do you remember how much time was left in the game / OT when that happened?  I would love to see a replay.

 

In OT 2nd and 12. He got the completion on 3rd to extend the drive

[Billl]

18 minutes ago, Warcodered said:

I mean there is a guy probably covering him (21) right around 7 yards away which I'm guessing gets closer if Allen turns and throws to him. Two other unblocked guys on that side of the field. I mean I wouldn't doubt Singletary could of gotten some yards there but I'm also curious what the situation in the game was.

Are you really trying to make the case that Singletary with 7 yards of space is a worse option than throwing a 50 yard flutterball to a Fullback who is double covered?  I’m pretty sure Allen yelled “500” before throwing that ball.

 

I watched the replay of this game again yesterday.  Allen made several excellent plays, but he made an egregious amount of awful decisions.  Watching Allen play QB is like watching a golfer crush a 300 yard drive and sink a 30 foot putt on a hole but also put his approach into the water twice.  The Texans dropped two gimme interceptions, had good opportunities for two more.  Between those, the fumble that the Texans recovered, and the insane lateral that got swatted out of bounds, it’s kind of amazing the game was as close as it was.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

2 hours ago, Warcodered said:

I mean there is a guy probably covering him (21) right around 7 yards away which I'm guessing gets closer if Allen turns and throws to him. Two other unblocked guys on that side of the field. I mean I wouldn't doubt Singletary could of gotten some yards there but I'm also curious what the situation in the game was.

 

This is where having a cannon does matter.  The ball gets there far quicker than the defender can.  Assuming Singletary makes a clean catch and tucks it away he's got one guy coming for him, and he has a proven ability to make a tackler miss and get some yards.  At best, if he can break a tackle and make the guy miss, we could have a big play with blockers downfield.  At worst, we have 3rd and 4 -  3rd and 6 which is better than 3rd and 12.   I think it's probably a tough argument to make that Singletary wasn't a higher probability for a more positive outcome than a deep bomb to a double-covered DiMarco.

 

The game situation was 2 and 12, 12:43 left in overtime from our own 32.

 

 

[CincyBillsFan]

1 hour ago, Billl said:

Are you really trying to make the case that Singletary with 7 yards of space is a worse option than throwing a 50 yard flutterball to a Fullback who is double covered?  I’m pretty sure Allen yelled “500” before throwing that ball.

 

I watched the replay of this game again yesterday.  Allen made several excellent plays, but he made an egregious amount of awful decisions.  Watching Allen play QB is like watching a golfer crush a 300 yard drive and sink a 30 foot putt on a hole but also put his approach into the water twice.  The Texans dropped two gimme interceptions, had good opportunities for two more.  Between those, the fumble that the Texans recovered, and the insane lateral that got swatted out of bounds, it’s kind of amazing the game was as close as it was.

 

Can you actually call out a couple of those "egregious awful decisions"?  Should be easy to pick a few really bad ones given how you're claiming he had so many.

 

As for the two "almost" INT's that Allen threw - so what? In almost every game I watch QB's, even the great ones, throw passes that "should" have been intercepted. 

 

Oh and by my count he only had one which "should" have been intercepted and that was the potential pick 6 in the 1st quarter.  The pass that went between Watt's hand at the LOS happens a lot in the NFL and is almost never intercepted as the defender is to close and the ball is moving to fast.  And for the record Watson had a potential pick 6 dropped that should have been an easy INT for the Bills.

 

IMO Allen played well in his first playoff game.  He's a big part of the reason we got out to a 16 - 0 lead; got into OT with a late game FG drive and had us poised to win in OT if only Knox or Morse had made a block. 

 

Let's not forget that the first 3 Bills drive starts were at their own 10, 8 & 4 yard line and that Allen led them to two FG's in spite of such awful field position.  And if Allen's receivers had made NFL quality plays on a couple of passes in the 2nd quarter the game would have been over with the Bills up 21 - 0 at half.  So spare me the talk that so and so was "open" by "7 yards" from a video image. 

[LABILLBACKER]

I'm more disappointed Dimarco is still on this team than some stupid hail mary thrown to him. He's the Chris Kelsay of this Bills era.

[The Jokeman]

Just now, LABILLBACKER said:

I'm more disappointed Dimarco is still on this team than some stupid hail mary thrown to him. He's the Chris Kelsay of this Bills era.

Quick without google name the Texans fullback. Truth is teams have "invisible" players on their 53 man rosters all the time, I'm not going to complain about our fullback who can also play special teams. 

[CincyBillsFan]

8 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

This is where having a cannon does matter.  The ball gets there far quicker than the defender can.  Assuming Singletary makes a clean catch and tucks it away he's got one guy coming for him, and he has a proven ability to make a tackler miss and get some yards.  At best, if he can break a tackle and make the guy miss, we could have a big play with blockers downfield.  At worst, we have 3rd and 4 -  3rd and 6 which is better than 3rd and 12.   I think it's probably a tough argument to make that Singletary wasn't a higher probability for a more positive outcome than a deep bomb to a double-covered DiMarco.

 

The game situation was 2 and 12, 12:43 left in overtime from our own 32.

 

 

 

I agree but at the same time it's a petty argument to make.  Do any of these people who dwell on Allen not seeing an open receiver on EVERY play watch any other NFL games?  You can nitpick any NFL QB to death if you have motivation to do so.  And man there seems to be plenty of motivation by a few select posters at 2BD to do it!

 

On any scale applied to plays that Allen may or may not have missed in that game this one was minor. And didn't Allen convert the 3rd & 12 on the next play?  It's like the obsession with the lateral.  If we didn't know better you would think a Texan intercepted the lateral and ran it in for a TD sealing the win for Houston.

 

 

 

 

Edited January 28, 2020 by CincyBillsFan

[Hapless Bills Fan]

16 minutes ago, CincyBillsFan said:

I agree but at the same time it's a petty argument to make.  Do any of these people who dwell on Allen not seeing an open receiver on EVERY play watch any other NFL games?  You can nitpick any NFL QB to death if you have motivation to do so.  And man there seems to be plenty of motivation by a few select posters at 2BD to do it!

 

On any scale applied to plays that Allen may or may not have missed in that game this one was minor. And didn't Allen convert the 3rd & 12 on the next play?  It's like the obsession with the lateral.  If we didn't know better you would think a Texan intercepted the lateral and ran it in for a TD sealing the win for Houston.

 

Yes, Allen converted the third down on the next play.

 

Petty argument?  I guess you can say what you like.  There are a couple things that really bother me about that play as emblematic of some of the offensive problems that the Bills have had, since they're perhaps not clear given the above, I'll try to lay them out:

 

1) There has been a consistent pattern of overlooking a wide open Singletary who could gain yards, in a game situation where yards fill a need and the chosen alternative is much lower probability.  (the reason I suggest that a 10 foot fiberglass pole topped with a blaze-orange flag be attached to him).  This isn't just me - it's a persistant theme.  Jim Kelly has been interviewed talking about Allen and saying "he needs to take what the defense is giving him".  Jordan Palmer has been interviewed talking about Allen and saying "he needs to take what the defense is giving him.  At times McDermott has said about Allen post game "he didn't take what the defense was giving him". 

 

It's great that the Bills and Allen have been fantastic in converting on 3rd and long, but we've also failed to convert and given up points.  If we want to be more consistent at scoring next year, we have got to sustain more drives.  One way to do that is to stay OUT of third and long so often.  In order to achieve that, we need to convert or at least make yards more often on 2nd down.  I don't think that's petty to point out.

 

2) Yes, there are often open receivers on every play, but the reason this throw bothers some of us so much is because it seems to conflict with the principle that in critical game situations, you put your best players in the best position and give them the opportunity to make a play.  The best, most clutch receivers on the Bills are Brown and Beasley, followed by Singletary and Knox. Having DiMarco and Smith line up as WR and then run deep routes, strikes a number of us as a violation of this principle, especially if better, more clutch WR are open, but overlooked in throwing to occasional, less skilled receivers like DiMarco.  I for one view it as an example of Daboll being "too cute" in his play design.  This has been a theme throughout the year, not just in this loss.

[Billl]

22 minutes ago, CincyBillsFan said:

 

Can you actually call out a couple of those "egregious awful decisions"?  Should be easy to pick a few really bad ones given how you're claiming he had so many.

 

As for the two "almost" INT's that Allen threw - so what? In almost every game I watch QB's, even the great ones, throw passes that "should" have been intercepted. 

 

Oh and by my count he only had one which "should" have been intercepted and that was the potential pick 6 in the 1st quarter.  The pass that went between Watt's hand at the LOS happens a lot in the NFL and is almost never intercepted as the defender is to close and the ball is moving to fast.  And for the record Watson had a potential pick 6 dropped that should have been an easy INT for the Bills.

 

IMO Allen played well in his first playoff game.  He's a big part of the reason we got out to a 16 - 0 lead; got into OT with a late game FG drive and had us poised to win in OT if only Knox or Morse had made a block. 

 

Let's not forget that the first 3 Bills drive starts were at their own 10, 8 & 4 yard line and that Allen led them to two FG's in spite of such awful field position.  And if Allen's receivers had made NFL quality plays on a couple of passes in the 2nd quarter the game would have been over with the Bills up 21 - 0 at half.  So spare me the talk that so and so was "open" by "7 yards" from a video image. 

https://www.nflfullhd.com/23536-2/
 

4:52 in the first quarter he throws the ball for an easy pick 6 that was dropped

 

14:15 in the fourth, he carries the ball loosely and it falls out of his hand after barely being touched

 

2:00 in the fourth he takes a 14 yard sack to get knocked out of FG range

 

1:45 he takes a 22 yard sack by running backwards for no reason

 

1:08 he laterals the ball wildly for no reason (maybe the dumbest play I’ve ever seen in a critical moment)

 

0:39 he hits the DB in the chest again and it’s dropped

 

:12 he throws the ball away, but it’s nearly intercepted

 

12:40 in OT he throws a jump ball to his fullback who is double covered

 

 

[CincyBillsFan]

4 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Yes, Allen converted the third down on the next play.

 

Petty argument?  I guess you can say what you like.  There are a couple things that really bother me about that play as emblematic of some of the offensive problems that the Bills have had, since they're perhaps not clear given the above, I'll try to lay them out:

 

1) There has been a consistent pattern of overlooking a wide open Singletary who could gain yards, in a game situation where yards fill a need and the chosen alternative is much lower probability.  (the reason I suggest that a 10 foot fiberglass pole topped with a blaze-orange flag be attached to him).  This isn't just me - it's a persistant theme.  Jim Kelly has been interviewed talking about Allen and saying "he needs to take what the defense is giving him".  Jordan Palmer has been interviewed talking about Allen and saying "he needs to take what the defense is giving him.  At times McDermott has said about Allen post game "he didn't take what the defense was giving him". 

 

It's great that the Bills and Allen have been fantastic in converting on 3rd and long, but we've also failed to convert and given up points.  If we want to be more consistent at scoring next year, we have got to sustain more drives.  One way to do that is to stay OUT of third and long so often.  In order to achieve that, we need to convert or at least make yards more often on 2nd down.  I don't think that's petty to point out.

 

2) Yes, there are often open receivers on every play, but the reason this throw bothers some of us so much is because it seems to conflict with the principle that in critical game situations, you put your best players in the best position and give them the opportunity to make a play.  The best, most clutch receivers on the Bills are Brown and Beasley, followed by Singletary and Knox. Having DiMarco and Smith line up as WR and then run deep routes, strikes a number of us as a violation of this principle, especially if better, more clutch WR are open, but overlooked in throwing to occasional, less skilled receivers like DiMarco.  I for one view it as an example of Daboll being "too cute" in his play design.  This has been a theme throughout the year, not just in this loss.

 

I don't disagree with you here and my post wasn't meant as a criticism of you since you actually analyze Allen's performance with an open mind.  I enjoy reading your stuff as it helps me to more accurately assess Allen's performance.  For sure I want Allen to succeed because the cost to the Bills would be terrible if he doesn't.  This does run the risk of my looking at Allen through rose colored glasses. You provide good perspective to help me keep it real with respect to Allen.

 

But I would note that unless we know how that play was supposed to work and what the true progression read was we can't really tell if Allen missed Singleterry. If the RB was the 4th option then I'm fine with Allen missing it.  If Singleterry was the 2nd option then Allen needs to work on this part of his game and take what's given.

 

I do agree 100% with you about DiMarco split out wide.  Often he was out there with Gore which seemed like a total waste of space.

 

 

[reddogblitz]

On 1/4/2020 at 7:48 PM, GregPersons said:

This wasn't the only time a deep pass has been targeted to DiMarco this year. 

 

It also wasn't the only time in the Texans game.

[Agent 91]

11 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

That whole play sequence was so weird

 

1st down: what appears to be a designed run for Allen.  He is stuffed for a 2 yd loss.  Why are we calling a designed run for our QB in that instance?  But given we do, Allen does not appear to follow his blockers, where he would have potentially managed a respectable short gain.  Maybe 3 yds?  Instead, he tries to bounce outside and gets nailed for a 2 yd loss after taking multiple hits.  It can not improve a QB's ability to make quick reads and good decisions and throws to get nailed like that.  Daboll: STOP IT!!!!

 

2nd down: the deep bomb to Dimarco.  Houston only rushed 2, so there were 9 guys in coverage.  Doesn't look like Dimarco was Josh's first read, but it also doesn't look as though he ever gives Singletary a glance who (as he often is) is PAINFULLY open.  It also appears to me that Brown comes open across the middle before Josh throws, but by then Josh has drifted to the left and may not have a clear lane to him.  But here is Singletary, earlier in the play, near the 30 yd line with no unblocked defender within 7 yds:

 

Given that he is elusive and tough, chances are good he would manage to pick up at least 5 and maybe more. 

 

I am only 1/2 kidding when I suggest that Motor should be equipped with a 10 ft fiberglass pole topped by an orange safety flag to assist Allen in seeing him.

 

Oh, and of course we have Lee Smith running another route deep downfield.  ?

 

3rd down: conversion, 14 yd pass to Knox.

 

Great post very factual. You ruined it when you made me laugh with the flag pole comment. It seems as though there is a combo QB and OC disconnect. It's like DaBoll doesnt trust him or has a distorted sense of the offensive capability

[Hapless Bills Fan]

44 minutes ago, Agent 91 said:

Great post very factual. You ruined it when you made me laugh with the flag pole comment. It seems as though there is a combo QB and OC disconnect. It's like DaBoll doesnt trust him or has a distorted sense of the offensive capability

 

What, you don't think safety orange would match well with the blue and white uniforms?

 

 

[biggerdaddynj]

9 hours ago, The Jokeman said:

Quick without google name the Texans fullback. Truth is teams have "invisible" players on their 53 man rosters all the time, I'm not going to complain about our fullback who can also play special teams. 

Let’s check with PFF before we decide if we can complain about our fullback. ?.  FWIW, he did get a good deal for a FB:  

 

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/contracts/fullback/

Edited January 29, 2020 by biggerdaddynj

[Thurman#1]

On 1/5/2020 at 12:13 PM, Bakin said:

I don’t mind the shot downfield. 
double coverage, yes...

but Allen gave his WR a chance to get the ball. 
 

Problem is ... why in the ever loving piss would it be DiMarco down there?  

I’m not a Daboll hater - I believe this team needs to continue to add by adding...not subtracting...and I give Daboll another year for sure. He has to do a better job. 
 

And putting DiMarco downfield when you had the smarts to activate Duke....????

 

I just don’t get it. 

 

 

 

Plenty of teams put guys outside who they don't expect to make the catch. It discombobulates the defense and sometimes draws a bit of extra coverage to the guy going deep.

 

The play design worked ... it got them so confused they ended up triple-covering McKenzie, and it got Singletary wide open around eight yards down the field and with one guy around ten yards downfield of him. Getting Singletary open in space is a win, and even if tackled without a gain, an eight yard gain is good on a 2nd and 12. More, John Brown was open for first down yardage on the left the minute he broke inside.

 

The surprising thing wasn't that they'd put a guy like DiMarco out there, it was that Allen would throw to him.

Edited January 29, 2020 by Thurman#1

[White Linen]

9 hours ago, The Jokeman said:

Quick without google name the Texans fullback. Truth is teams have "invisible" players on their 53 man rosters all the time, I'm not going to complain about our fullback who can also play special teams. 

 

My complaint is him lining up as the X receiver for multiple plays in overtime.  

[Thurman#1]

 

25 minutes ago, biggerdaddynj said:

Let’s check with PFF before we decide if we can complain about our fullback. ?.  FWIW, he did get a good deal for a FB:  

 

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/contracts/fullback/

 

 

Here's a better link, ranking by average salary rather than total salary. It's a far more reasonable way to look at it:

 

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/rankings/average/fullback/

 

DiMarco gets $2.1 mill a year. It's not a big deal.

 

DiMarco is used a lot on a couple of the STs groups and he gives them options on run and pass plays. It's not that big a deal. Juszczyk gets paid two and a half times more than DiMarco and played in 32% more snaps and put up about 200 yards more from scrimmage.

 

Some teams value FBs and some don't.

[GunnerBill]

14 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

That whole play sequence was so weird

 

1st down: what appears to be a designed run for Allen.  He is stuffed for a 2 yd loss.  Why are we calling a designed run for our QB in that instance?  But given we do, Allen does not appear to follow his blockers, where he would have potentially managed a respectable short gain.  Maybe 3 yds?  Instead, he tries to bounce outside and gets nailed for a 2 yd loss after taking multiple hits.  It can not improve a QB's ability to make quick reads and good decisions and throws to get nailed like that.  Daboll: STOP IT!!!!

 

2nd down: the deep bomb to Dimarco.  Houston only rushed 2, so there were 9 guys in coverage.  Doesn't look like Dimarco was Josh's first read, but it also doesn't look as though he ever gives Singletary a glance who (as he often is) is PAINFULLY open.  It also appears to me that Brown comes open across the middle before Josh throws, but by then Josh has drifted to the left and may not have a clear lane to him.  But here is Singletary, earlier in the play, near the 30 yd line with no unblocked defender within 7 yds:

 

Given that he is elusive and tough, chances are good he would manage to pick up at least 5 and maybe more. 

 

I am only 1/2 kidding when I suggest that Motor should be equipped with a 10 ft fiberglass pole topped by an orange safety flag to assist Allen in seeing him.

 

Oh, and of course we have Lee Smith running another route deep downfield.  ?

 

3rd down: conversion, 14 yd pass to Knox.

 

 

That is exactly how I saw that play and said so at the time. I don't think it was a called bomb to DiMarco. I actually think DiMarco and Smith are clear out routes for Brown - who as you say comes open late across the middle. Looks as though the timing is off slightly and Brown might have got held up slightly earlier in his route which is part of the reason I think Josh drifts and loses patience. But again, as you say the check down was there all day. 

 

I got flamed for it at the time but I don't think that was a bad play design to beat a max coverage look. DiMarco and Smith actually attract 4 defenders - that was there job. Which means suddenly means from 5 against 9 your two least likely weapons have attracted 4 and given your three better weapons only 5 defenders to beat - and as the play develops and you see the underneath linebacker is basically spying Josh (and starts to rush him late in the down) - it means the numbers game becomes 4 on 3 and much more favourable for Brown or Singletary to make a play.