Big Turk Posted January 3, 2020 Posted January 3, 2020 (edited) For this particular team? Allen. In general? Watson. Might have a different answer in a few years. Watson has a few more years of experience than Allen does. Edited January 3, 2020 by matter2003
thebandit27 Posted January 3, 2020 Posted January 3, 2020 21 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said: Could it be that one throws a more catchable football or perhaps more accurately? Watson has always been a very accurate passer with a high completion %. Allen has not. I think it would interesting to compare the drop rates of the receivers through their careers. Do you think Watson isn’t smart? And Watson plays with the 28th ranked defense. If he doesn’t play well, they lose. I call that pressure. Our defense allows the game to always be tight. Well here’s the data for all WR/TE on each of the 2 teams that are over 60% catch rate, though I don’t think it tells much: https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/S/StilKe00.htm https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/F/FellDa01.htmhttps://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/H/HopkDe00.htm https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/F/FullWi01.htmhttps://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/A/AkinJo00.htmhttps://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/C/CoutKe00.htm https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/B/BrowJo02.htm https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/B/BeasCo00.htmhttps://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/M/McKeIs00.htm Noteworthy observations include: - in Stills’ first year with Watson, he’s having the 2nd highest catch rate of his career - for both Nuk and Fuller, their major uptick in catch percentage correlated with Watson’s 2nd year as a starter - McKenzie and Smoke have seen a huge uptick in catch % this year in comparison to their previous career %. Beasley, OTOH, has his 3rd-lowest catch rate in 2019 (though that’s not exactly an outlier; he’s been up and down year to year) 1
GunnerBill Posted January 3, 2020 Posted January 3, 2020 I actually think when you allow for natural homerism on a Bills board this poll isn't too far off. We have had crazier homerism polls in the past for sure.
D. L. Hot-Flamethrower Posted January 3, 2020 Posted January 3, 2020 (edited) 8 minutes ago, thebandit27 said: Well here’s the data for all WR/TE on each of the 2 teams that are over 60% catch rate, though I don’t think it tells much: https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/S/StilKe00.htm https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/F/FellDa01.htmhttps://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/H/HopkDe00.htm https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/F/FullWi01.htmhttps://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/A/AkinJo00.htmhttps://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/C/CoutKe00.htm https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/B/BrowJo02.htm https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/B/BeasCo00.htmhttps://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/M/McKeIs00.htm Noteworthy observations include: - in Stills’ first year with Watson, he’s having the 2nd highest catch rate of his career - for both Nuk and Fuller, their major uptick in catch percentage correlated with Watson’s 2nd year as a starter - McKenzie and Smoke have seen a huge uptick in catch % this year in comparison to their previous career %. Beasley, OTOH, has his 3rd-lowest catch rate in 2019 (though that’s not exactly an outlier; he’s been up and down year to year) I wonder how repeatable(correlated) Catch% is from year to year for all receivers? I could check when I have some time! I mean Hopkins jumped from mid 50s to near 70 the last 2 years. What happened? less jump balls, more easy catches, System alteration? Did his skill improve? Edited January 3, 2020 by D. L. Hot-Flamethrower
Troll Toll Posted January 3, 2020 Posted January 3, 2020 31 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said: Could it be that one throws a more catchable football or perhaps more accurately? Watson has always been a very accurate passer with a high completion %. Allen has not. I think it would interesting to compare the drop rates of the receivers through their careers. Do you think Watson isn’t smart? And Watson plays with the 28th ranked defense. If he doesn’t play well, they lose. I call that pressure. Our defense allows the game to always be tight. Watson has guys he can lean on and a good o-line. Allen basically always has to be the guy to make a play. Look at the way the Ravens could just tee off on Allen because nobody else is a threat. Watson doesn’t see that kind of pressure often. Allen has had to find ways to survive and make plays where the level of intensity he faces on the field is far beyond what Watson is accustomed to. Josh has been making plays when there are no good options. What will Watson do when his options are more limited due to the better defenses and gameplans? Winning in the playoffs you have to be very smart and very sharp to figure out how to win in the 2nd half. Even smart QBs like Brees and Manning failed many times because they couldn’t adjust in-game like say Tom Brady. Allen has shown signs this year that he figures out exactly what the other team is doing by the end of the first half.
GunnerBill Posted January 3, 2020 Posted January 3, 2020 (edited) 1 hour ago, Troll Toll said: Watson has guys he can lean on and a good o-line. Allen basically always has to be the guy to make a play. Watson has a good oline? Have you watched Houston at all? I mean it hasn't quite been 32nd in the league this year like it was last season but it isn't even nearly average. Edited January 3, 2020 by GunnerBill
Real McClappy Posted January 3, 2020 Posted January 3, 2020 41 minutes ago, GunnerBill said: Watson has a good oline? Have you watched Houston at all? I mean it hasn't quite been 32nd in the league this year like it was last season but it isn't even nearly average. What's wrong with getting sacked 106 times in 2 years? lol Bills D-line better tear them up.
GunnerBill Posted January 3, 2020 Posted January 3, 2020 30 minutes ago, Real McNasty said: What's wrong with getting sacked 106 times in 2 years? lol Bills D-line better tear them up. Oliver and Jordan Phillips will be in the backfield a lot. They might not pile up the sacks because Watson can escape but they will be creating pressure. 1
Pokebball Posted January 3, 2020 Posted January 3, 2020 4 hours ago, Troll Toll said: Allen, I think his smarts are criminally underrated and he has the brains to figure out playoff defenses and outsmart them. I have reservations on how Watson will fare against the best defenses in the playoffs. Playoff defenses are a totally different animal than regular season defenses. Allen has had to fight tooth and nail for 2 years with an inadequate supporting cast. Deshaun has gotten to cruise along much of that time. How will Watson react to the easy plays not being there? Allen has been in a perpetual dogfight for 2 years with every mistake magnified because he has no room for errors with the weak supporting cast. While I agree with most of this, Watson has a full additional year of experience in the NFL. You can't discount that. 5 minutes ago, GunnerBill said: Oliver and Jordan Phillips will be in the backfield a lot. They might not pile up the sacks because Watson can escape but they will be creating pressure. I so hope this is correct
Troll Toll Posted January 4, 2020 Posted January 4, 2020 4 hours ago, GunnerBill said: Watson has a good oline? Have you watched Houston at all? I mean it hasn't quite been 32nd in the league this year like it was last season but it isn't even nearly average. Good compared to Buffalo’s. It hasn’t stuck out to me watching Watson where guys will routinely let someone go untouched through the middle of the line like they do in Buffalo. The past few years in Buffalo is some of the worst pass blocking I’ve ever seen. That said, I’ve only really had the chance to watch a handful of Watson’s games.
formerlyofCtown Posted January 4, 2020 Posted January 4, 2020 Josh Allen because he is the QB for the Bills. The other guy is the Texans QB. 1
Scott7975 Posted January 4, 2020 Posted January 4, 2020 (edited) 7 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said: How is that catch % stat computed? Does it limit the targets to "catchable balls"? Their version of catch % is simply receptions divided by targets. So no. Edited January 4, 2020 by Scott7975
Scott7975 Posted January 4, 2020 Posted January 4, 2020 6 hours ago, C.Biscuit97 said: Could it be that one throws a more catchable football or perhaps more accurately? Watson has always been a very accurate passer with a high completion %. Allen has not. I think it would interesting to compare the drop rates of the receivers through their careers. Do you think Watson isn’t smart? And Watson plays with the 28th ranked defense. If he doesn’t play well, they lose. I call that pressure. Our defense allows the game to always be tight. In fairness he does throw some balls up for grabs that his receiver comes down with. A lot of those passes our receivers would not catch. It is the same for a lot of QBs. Their receivers catch balls ours would not. Saying that... Allen definitely has to improve in that area as he also throws balls that no one would catch.
Brand J Posted January 4, 2020 Posted January 4, 2020 I wish we could inject Allen’s brain with Brady’s skills and knowledge of the position. None of these games would be close en route to a Super Bowl win ?
Scott7975 Posted January 4, 2020 Posted January 4, 2020 (edited) 5 hours ago, Troll Toll said: Watson has guys he can lean on and a good o-line. Allen basically always has to be the guy to make a play. Look at the way the Ravens could just tee off on Allen because nobody else is a threat. Watson doesn’t see that kind of pressure often. Allen has had to find ways to survive and make plays where the level of intensity he faces on the field is far beyond what Watson is accustomed to. Josh has been making plays when there are no good options. What will Watson do when his options are more limited due to the better defenses and gameplans? Winning in the playoffs you have to be very smart and very sharp to figure out how to win in the 2nd half. Even smart QBs like Brees and Manning failed many times because they couldn’t adjust in-game like say Tom Brady. Allen has shown signs this year that he figures out exactly what the other team is doing by the end of the first half. Watson does not have a good Oline. Darn... I once found a site that listed pressure times... ie a better stat than time to throw because it actually timed how long until the QB got pressured, which is a much more accurate gauge IMO. Can't find that stat now. I know Allen was seeing pressure pretty quick. I'd like to see where Watson ranks comparatively because that would be a pretty good gauge on how Olines are doing comparatively. Edited January 4, 2020 by Scott7975
GunnerBill Posted January 4, 2020 Posted January 4, 2020 8 hours ago, Troll Toll said: Good compared to Buffalo’s. It hasn’t stuck out to me watching Watson where guys will routinely let someone go untouched through the middle of the line like they do in Buffalo. The past few years in Buffalo is some of the worst pass blocking I’ve ever seen. That said, I’ve only really had the chance to watch a handful of Watson’s games. Allen has a better line than Watson and it isn't even really close. Last year they both had poor lines. This year Buffalo's is somewhere around average and Houston's is still bottom 5 or 6. 1
Bill_with_it Posted January 4, 2020 Posted January 4, 2020 Allen without a doubt. Somebody will literally have to break him to make him quit. He showed the grit on that qb sneak a couple of games ago that he does not know the word quit. To me thats much more important than just about anything except pin point accuracy regarding the qb spot. 1
Rock-A-Bye Beasley Posted January 4, 2020 Posted January 4, 2020 (edited) 2 hours ago, Bill_with_it said: Allen without a doubt. Somebody will literally have to break him to make him quit. He showed the grit on that qb sneak a couple of games ago that he does not know the word quit. To me thats much more important than just about anything except pin point accuracy regarding the qb spot. Yeah you’re right I keep seeing Watson quit so I want Allen because he doesn’t do that. Edited January 4, 2020 by Chemical 1
Rock-A-Bye Beasley Posted January 4, 2020 Posted January 4, 2020 (edited) 21 hours ago, Troll Toll said: Allen, I think his smarts are criminally underrated and he has the brains to figure out playoff defenses and outsmart them. I have reservations on how Watson will fare against the best defenses in the playoffs. Playoff defenses are a totally different animal than regular season defenses. Allen has had to fight tooth and nail for 2 years with an inadequate supporting cast. Deshaun has gotten to cruise along much of that time. How will Watson react to the easy plays not being there? Allen has been in a perpetual dogfight for 2 years with every mistake magnified because he has no room for errors with the weak supporting cast. How’d Watson do in college in the playoffs? Wish there was some precedent we could look at. Edit: Watson also already did pretty well against the best defense this season. Edited January 4, 2020 by Chemical
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