oldmanfan Posted January 6, 2020 Posted January 6, 2020 2 minutes ago, Buddy Hix said: I think the point we were discussing was Allen's ability to take another leap from year 2 to year 3, correct? Show me the leaps your talking about in the data below. Ryan (top) was pretty much the same QB all three seasons. Did Ryan have marginal improvements from year 2 to 3, sure. Are we looking for Allen to marginally improve his 45 QBR? No, I think Allen needs significant improvement next year. Allen is below average in virtually every passing metric for QBs. Newton (bottom) is similar to Ryan, showing 2 to 5% improvements in both ratings year over year over year. Again, not what we were talking about. Stafford did show a great improvement from year 2 to 3 but I would attribute that to his injury in year two where he missed 13 games, lol. This falls more inline with the thinking that a QBs significant improvement zone is between years 1 and 2. https://www.footballoutsiders.com/extra-points/2012/quarterback-development-patterns We are all hoping for a big leap from Allen next year, but don't pretend it's a common occurrence. So now you are making the decision what others are looking for in terms of improvement. You can’t sit here and say each of the three guys above improved but then say they aren’t examples of improvement. Brees improves his first two full seasons. So did Favre. You are making the fatal mistake many make when making a statistical argument: you have an answer you want to prove and you're trying to manipulate the data to justify your preconceived conclusion.
Buddy Hix Posted January 6, 2020 Posted January 6, 2020 21 minutes ago, oldmanfan said: Looking at the graphs, the data discusses changes in the rankings; they do not from what I can tell assess whether or not they are positive or negative changes, nor did he provide any statistics to claim whether differences were real or not. I review a ton of scientific manuscripts for publications, and when they get rejected it is mostly because of faulty study design or data analysis. This study looks like it falls in that category. You claimed the only guy to improve from his first or second year was Brees. Just for the heck of it I picked a guy that some compare Allen to early in his career: Favre. And if you look at Favre second and third seasons he improved. Others have mentioned guys like Stafford and others. So to me you are way overstating your case. I also question why you chose the construct of just year 2 to year 3. Another good example of extending the time of analysis would be a guy you saw today: Cousins. Took him quite a while and some failures to finally win s big game. Sometimes you have to experience the lows to get to the highs. The random nature of the data showed in the study you cite after year 3 also suggests that. None of us know what Allen will or will not become. But if you’re trying to suggest that the Bills should move on from Allen now because he can’t get better next year or after, your data just doesn’t show that. My suggestion was that it will be difficult for Allen to improve next season as much as he did this season, but it's obviously possible, especially considering his lack of snaps in college. I would think anybody suggesting that we move on from Allen is just sore about yesterday or trolling or an idiot. Allen looks like his floor is still enough to be a starter in this league, I just worry his ceiling is limited to an Alex Smith. We'll see how he does with another off season against a much tougher schedule.
oldmanfan Posted January 6, 2020 Posted January 6, 2020 14 minutes ago, Buddy Hix said: My suggestion was that it will be difficult for Allen to improve next season as much as he did this season, but it's obviously possible, especially considering his lack of snaps in college. I would think anybody suggesting that we move on from Allen is just sore about yesterday or trolling or an idiot. Allen looks like his floor is still enough to be a starter in this league, I just worry his ceiling is limited to an Alex Smith. We'll see how he does with another off season against a much tougher schedule. I agree and am glad we got this back onto a more civil platform.
Jaywrizzo Posted January 6, 2020 Posted January 6, 2020 17 hours ago, thebandit27 said: So now Allen blew the lead too? I’m gonna take a break for a few days until Allen Derangement Syndrome wears off ? It's crazy his you're right...but you're arguing with numerous people.......you don't have a clue Buddy!
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