thebandit27 Posted January 4, 2020 Posted January 4, 2020 4 minutes ago, BringBackOrton said: No. If a 4% bad throw rate isn’t significant, neither is a 3% difference in drop rate. Two things: 1) I didn’t say it was insignificant; I said that simply referring to rank without contextual reference implies a much greater difference than what the actual numbers show 2) This is as disingenuous as it gets. You’re really implying that having double the drop rate—something that is entirely beyond his control—doesn’t adversely affect Allen’s performance metrics? That’s total horse manure.
OldTimeAFLGuy Posted January 4, 2020 Posted January 4, 2020 On 1/1/2020 at 6:18 PM, Buffalo716 said: Agreed A football conversation with somebody saying they'd rather have Watson sparked this interest in me ....um...er....well...uh....ALLEN dammit.....think he has made great strides in year 2, avoiding the dreaded "sophomore slump"....offensive remake, new coaches, Daboll (hopefully) becoming more confident in this kid's attributes.....not taking anything away from the Watson kid, but I think he has somewhat better offensive weapons......
NewEra Posted January 4, 2020 Posted January 4, 2020 1 hour ago, thebandit27 said: https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2019/passing_advanced.htm There’s a fair bit that you’re leaving out: That apparently huge difference between 9 and 20 in on-target percentage amounts to 3%. Not exactly the chasm you’re implying. Same goes for bad throw percentage; the difference is 4%. The difference in CAY/PA is half a yard. Now for the stuff that you didn’t mention: Allen suffered a drop rate of 7.2%—highest in the NFL. Watson’s was 4.4%. WR play matters. Both QBs faced the same number of hurried despite Watson having more attempts; Allen was also hit 4 more times. OL play matters. Even though their respective efficiencies on RPOs are very similar, Josh had less than half of Watson’s combined run/pass attempts from RPO plays. Play calling matters. I find it rather interesting that you left out a significant measure of context after calling me out for cherry picking/obfuscating (actually it was for being “strawmanny” earlier in this thread (and it was in a different thread). His NFL track record? Not really. He has one playoff win over the Connor Cook lead Raiders. I like Watson, but let’s be accurate. Pretty sure he’s 0-1 in the playoffs.
thebandit27 Posted January 4, 2020 Posted January 4, 2020 39 minutes ago, GunnerBill said: Pretty much supports what I said - Houston are bottom 6 and the Bills are about average. They are probably a couple of spots lower than I would have them on eye test but nothing there that significantly contradicts my view. You might have been talking about BO'B here I am not sure but Watson wasn't yet drafted when they beat the Raiders. I think that was the Brocketship. Aw crud, you’re right Thanks Just now, NewEra said: Pretty sure he’s 0-1 in the playoffs. Yeah I got his record crossed up with O’Brien’s 1
NewEra Posted January 4, 2020 Posted January 4, 2020 34 minutes ago, thebandit27 said: True. Do you suppose that such a humongous drop rate might have a trickle-down effect on stats like YPA, TD %, INT%, and CAY/PA? That was more my point in citing that statistic. I feel his drop rate is a bit higher than it should be because he throws the ball too hard at times. I love watching him fire laser beams all around the field, but on a few throws, if his WRs had an additional fraction of a second to react, I feel they would’ve made the catches
BringBackOrton Posted January 4, 2020 Posted January 4, 2020 5 minutes ago, thebandit27 said: Two things: 1) I didn’t say it was insignificant; I said that simply referring to rank without contextual reference implies a much greater difference than what the actual numbers show 2) This is as disingenuous as it gets. You’re really implying that having double the drop rate—something that is entirely beyond his control—doesn’t adversely affect Allen’s performance metrics? That’s total horse manure. You call me disingenuous? How bout instead of calling it “double” the drop rate, you give the context of # of dropped passes per game difference it truly is? Does drop rate affect his bad throw rating? Does it affect his on target percentage? No and no, which is why I picked those stats. Unless you think Zay Jones dropping a pass or two means that Allen put more in the hospitality tent.
thebandit27 Posted January 4, 2020 Posted January 4, 2020 (edited) 10 minutes ago, BringBackOrton said: You call me disingenuous? How bout instead of calling it “double” the drop rate, you give the context of # of dropped passes per game difference it truly is? Does drop rate affect his bad throw rating? Does it affect his on target percentage? No and no, which is why I picked those stats. Unless you think Zay Jones dropping a pass or two means that Allen put more in the hospitality tent. Yes, totally disingenuous including in this very post. I made it clear that the highest drop rate will almost certainly have a trickle down effect on other stats like YPA etc. You’ve decided to completely ignore that and pivot to other stats. It’s also nothing short of intentional misrepresentation to categorize the number of drops as “Zay Jones dropped a pass or two”. No offense, but I no longer believe that you’re really interested in a factual discussion on this topic. EDIT... You know what? That was too strong a reply. My apologies. This discussion isn’t going anywhere and we should be more focused on the positive today. Go Bills. Edited January 4, 2020 by thebandit27
DCbillsfan Posted January 4, 2020 Posted January 4, 2020 I'll take Allen since he's on the Bills. Watson is a heckuva player and a good person. I think Allen is just scratching the surface. If he keeps working on his game and they get him two more receivers, one of them being a true WR1, to go along with Brown and Beasley - Look Out!!!
BringBackOrton Posted January 4, 2020 Posted January 4, 2020 1 hour ago, thebandit27 said: Yes, totally disingenuous including in this very post. I made it clear that the highest drop rate will almost certainly have a trickle down effect on other stats like YPA etc. You’ve decided to completely ignore that and pivot to other stats. It’s also nothing short of intentional misrepresentation to categorize the number of drops as “Zay Jones dropped a pass or two”. No offense, but I no longer believe that you’re really interested in a factual discussion on this topic. EDIT... You know what? That was too strong a reply. My apologies. This discussion isn’t going anywhere and we should be more focused on the positive today. Go Bills. Don’t you ever apologize to me! We definitely both hope Watson plays like Peterman today.
Nextmanup Posted January 4, 2020 Posted January 4, 2020 I'm not a huge fan of Watson, but I'd take him for sure as he's the clearly better QB. On 1/1/2020 at 6:21 PM, elijah said: If you’re choosing Allen over Watson you’re blinding yourself as a Bills fan. This shouldn’t be a debate. Im as big of an Allen supporter as there is, but Watson is primed to be one of the best in the league for a long long time. C'mon man! This is 2BD! Where the blind lead the blind every day.
LSHMEAB Posted January 5, 2020 Posted January 5, 2020 1 minute ago, Gary Busey said: Lollllll not even close. Watson 100% Just why dude?
Warren Zevon Posted January 5, 2020 Posted January 5, 2020 1 minute ago, LSHMEAB said: Just why dude? Hes a baller. Great year for Allen but Watson is the reason the Texans won. Good luck in 2020 Buffalo 1
Bangarang Posted January 5, 2020 Posted January 5, 2020 The correct answer is still Watson. Thanks everyone for playing. 1
NoSaint Posted January 5, 2020 Posted January 5, 2020 Josh looked like he might cry. id also still bet he took a concussion (after all his nonsense though) 2
Lionel Hutz Posted January 5, 2020 Posted January 5, 2020 Watson. Allen is not mature enough to win at the highest level.
Warren Zevon Posted January 5, 2020 Posted January 5, 2020 Just now, NoSaint said: Josh looked like he might cry. id also still bet he took a concussion (after all his nonsense though) Id cry too
GunnerBill Posted January 5, 2020 Posted January 5, 2020 Ultimately when the game was on the line this question was answered. His offense was crumbling and he put the game on his back. Josh played a decent game. A brilliant first half and a so-so 2nd / OT. But the better Quarterback won today. 1 1
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