JMF2006 Posted January 1, 2020 Posted January 1, 2020 Its really simple When you play from behind you have to air it out. When your ahead you can be more balanced. 6
row_33 Posted January 1, 2020 Posted January 1, 2020 The vertical and running game have shrunk as time passes
prissythecat Posted January 1, 2020 Posted January 1, 2020 They were at least exciting to watch . Lots of 300 yard games 3
Putin Posted January 1, 2020 Posted January 1, 2020 (edited) Ask Baltimore the # 1 seed Edited January 1, 2020 by Putin 1
stuvian Posted January 1, 2020 Posted January 1, 2020 because all the rules were changed to favour the pass, the defenses allowed teams to run between the 20s. As a result no one knows how to tackle anymore so run teams like the Ravens are going to dominate
billsfan1959 Posted January 1, 2020 Posted January 1, 2020 (edited) 1 hour ago, Putin said: Ask Baltimore the # 1 seed Baltimore clearly ran the ball more than any other team and their offense is specifically designed to utilize Lamar Jackson's running ability. However, they would not be the number one seed without Jacksons' passing. He had a career year TD percentage of 9%. (rounded up from .089). To put that in perspective, in the last 20 years, there have only been 6 QB TD% performances over 8 - and only two of them were over 9 (Peyton Manning in 2004 and Aaron Rodgers in 2010). The league average is 4.6% and no passer in the modern era has a career TD Percent higher than 6%. Last year, Jacksons' TD percent was 3.4% The difference between 9% and 3.4% for Jackson this year would be 22 TDs (36 TDs at 9% vs 14 TDs at 3.4%). If he had a TD% this year of the league average of 4.6%, he would have thrown for 18 TDs instead of 36. Even if he had thrown for 6% (the highest career average of any QB since 1970), he would have thrown for 24 TDS instead of 36. Baltimore runs more than they pass; however, IMHO, they would not be where they are right now without the passing production. Just look at the Bills' game. They pretty much shut down the run and the pass, in terms of yards. However, Jackson had 3 TD passes on 25 attempts and 101 total passing yards. It will be interesting to see if Jackson ever comes close to that TD% again. Edit: Also interesting is the fact that Alex Smith, Colin Kaepernick, and Tyrod Taylor all had their best year, in regard to TD%, under Greg Roman. Edited January 1, 2020 by billsfan1959 5 2
row_33 Posted January 1, 2020 Posted January 1, 2020 54 minutes ago, BarleyNY said: Already a thread on this it was a decent thread 1 1
machine gun kelly Posted January 1, 2020 Posted January 1, 2020 17 minutes ago, billsfan1959 said: Baltimore clearly ran the ball more than any other team and their offense is specifically designed to utilize Lamar Jackson's running ability. However, they would not be the number one seed without Jacksons' passing. He had a career year TD percentage of 9%. (rounded up from .089). To put that in perspective, in the last 20 years, there have only been 6 QB TD% performances over 8 - and only two of them were over 9 (Peyton Manning in 2004 and Aaron Rodgers in 2010). The league average is 4.6% and no passer in the modern era has a career TD Percent higher than 6%. Last year, Jacksons' TD percent was 3.4% The difference between 9% and 3.4% for Jackson this year would be 22 TDs (36 TDs at 9% vs 14 TDs at 3.4%). If he had a TD% this year of the league average of 4.6%, he would have thrown for 18 TDs instead of 36. Even if he had thrown for 6% (the highest career average of any QB since 1970), he would have thrown for 24 TDS instead of 36. Baltimore runs more than they pass; however, IMHO, they would not be where they are right now without the passing production. Just look at the Bills' game. They pretty much shut down the run and the pass, in terms of yards. However, Jackson had 3 TD passes on 25 attempts and 101 total passing yards. It will be interesting to see if Jackson ever comes close to that TD% again. 1959, well written. I would add if you looked at NO, SF as well as Baltimore all have a balanced attack, and all have a stout defense. 1
oldmanfan Posted January 1, 2020 Posted January 1, 2020 In the regular season maybe. In the playoffs you have to have defense and a running game. 1
1st Ammendment NoMas Posted January 1, 2020 Posted January 1, 2020 Great analysis by billsfan1959. Lamar is an anomaly, but it seems the more balanced offenses are the best. 4 of the top 5 rushing teams and 7 of the top 10 are in the playoffs. So I tend to agree that this is not a passing league as 1 of the top 5 (KC) and only 3 of the top 10 passing teams made the playoffs. The other factor to take into account is RB's catching the ball out of the backfield. RB's like McCaffrey, Eckeler, Kamara, Cohen, Fournette and TE's Kelce, Waller, Ertz, Kittle all had more REC than our #1 John Brown. The short passing game is more like running the ball. The completion percentage is much higher. Why the Bills have not taken advantage of this with Yeldon and Singletary is beyond me. We seem to keep 90% of our passing game in the intermediate game, which is why it is so innefective. Josh Allen ranked #32 in completion percentage as he is forced to throw into tight windows where defenders know and anticipate the play. We failed miserably with the deep balls and took very few shots. We failed miserably with the screen game by not calling enough screens, RPO's and short passes. We had moderate success with the intermediate game with Brown and Beasley, but dropped balls stalled many a drive. I really hope we see some diversity and new wrinkles in the offense this week or I pray that Cleveland is stupid enough to hire Daboll as a head coach. 4
billsfan1959 Posted January 1, 2020 Posted January 1, 2020 9 minutes ago, machine gun kelly said: 1959, well written. I would add if you looked at NO, SF as well as Baltimore all have a balanced attack, and all have a stout defense. Right. As does Tenn, Minn, Seattle, Hou and Buff. 8 of 12 playoff teams are in the top half of the league in smallest differential between passing and rushing attempts (including 6 of the top 8).
machine gun kelly Posted January 1, 2020 Posted January 1, 2020 1959, after we win Saturday, I’m going to toast everyone and just enjoy Henry pounding it down the Pats throat. I hope they f%#&k are so embarrassed in such a humiliating loss. Then one of you guys can copy and paste the Pats fan thread so we all can laugh hearing them cry. 1
NoSaint Posted January 1, 2020 Posted January 1, 2020 2 hours ago, PromoTheRobot said: Just an FYI - had this thread already this week 1
billsfan1959 Posted January 1, 2020 Posted January 1, 2020 9 minutes ago, BillsRdue said: Great analysis by billsfan1959. Lamar is an anomaly, but it seems the more balanced offenses are the best. 4 of the top 5 rushing teams and 7 of the top 10 are in the playoffs. So I tend to agree that this is not a passing league as 1 of the top 5 (KC) and only 3 of the top 10 passing teams made the playoffs. I think, as a general rule, the more balanced a team is, the better their chances of being a playoff team. The only exceptions I would add are those teams with HOF caliber QBs. As I stated above, of the top 14 most balanced teams, 8 made the playoffs, including 6 of the 8 most balanced teams. Of the bottom 18 teams in passing/rushing balance, only four made the playoffs: New England, Green Bay, New Orleans, and Kansas City.
NoSaint Posted January 1, 2020 Posted January 1, 2020 17 minutes ago, oldmanfan said: In the regular season maybe. In the playoffs you have to have defense and a running game. yes - to beat multiple top teams consecutively you tend to have to be an all around good team, and top of the list is still being able to toss the ball
row_33 Posted January 1, 2020 Posted January 1, 2020 We will sift through the stats after the games are long over and pretend this matters even a tiny bit on the games this weekend
colin Posted January 1, 2020 Posted January 1, 2020 It's a complicated game of rock paper scissors. Rules help push things along, but defensive coordinators and the generally higher level of athletic ability on d catches up, and then new offenses come along and the cycle begins anew. Right now, D's are really good at pressure, coverage, and run blitzing. They all seem to be poorly equiped to stop a power run game. There is also something to be said about a very balanced d like the one we have, where if guys make tackles we can defend anything. I think that why mcd likes waves of dline and super athlete mbls, they can deal w most anything. I'm a big fan of how these things trend and change. I really got into it back when I played and pitz came in hot w the zone blitz concept and the 3-4 vs 4-3 stuff. 1
Recommended Posts