Reason for Declining INT Numbers?

[Big Turk]

I'm sure the rule changes come into play a lot with this, but I've always wondered why there are so few INT's thrown these days.

 

As an example Kelly threw 17 or more INTs in 8 of his 11 seasons here.  His other 3 seasons were 9, 11, and 13. This with throwing relatively few passes in comparison to today's NFL, with 480 in his rookie season being the most he ever threw. This year, 18 QB's had more attempts than that. In 1986, only 8 other QB's had more than that. In 1986 25 QB's had 10 or more INT's with Moon leading the way with 26. This year only 10 QB's had 10 or more, but Winston posted an unreal(for this era) 30 INT's. 

 

As a comparison, this year there were 17,853 pass attempts with 410 INT's thrown.  In 1986 there were 14,469 pass attempts and 581 INT's thrown.  So back then there were 171 more INT's on almost 3,400 fewer passes.

 

Other than rule changes what else explains the lower number of INT's?  Better QB play?  Better Film Study?  Better Route/System Concepts?

 

I'm casting a vote for rule changes favoring offenses....defensive backs just can't really do much of anything compared to what they used to be able to do without getting flagged for it.

 

 

Edited December 31, 2019 by matter2003

[Rc2catch]

I would say it has to do mainly with corners not being allowed to do anything or be physical. Back in the day there was a lot more tugging and hands on coverage not to

mention no emphasis on pass interference and obviously no replay challenges. 
Lot of other factors but playing secondary is possibly the hardest job in the NFL right now. 
Have to worry about all these crazy pick plays, have to get your head around or it’s auto penalty, can’t hit high, you go low and they hurdle you.. There’s really a lot of crazy restrictions, and the receiver always has the advantage of knowing his route and the timing etc etc. 

[Ethan in Cleveland]

More attempts thrown at or behind the LOS. The WR screen didn't exist then.  That play is run at least twice per game x 16 games x 16 weeks = 512 attempts per year with virtually no chance for an INT.

More three step drops with less of a chance for an INT due to lack of pass rush.

More short to intermediate throws probably helps.

Rule changes. 

[Mr. WEO]

There weren't more INTS back then only because there was more contact beyond the LOS.

 

QBs and offensive schemes are better than DB's now compared to back then.  And more short passing.  Fewer opportunity to get INTs.

[row_33]

39 minutes ago, Ethan in Portland said:

More attempts thrown at or behind the LOS. The WR screen didn't exist then.  That play is run at least twice per game x 16 games x 16 weeks = 512 attempts per year with virtually no chance for an INT.

More three step drops with less of a chance for an INT due to lack of pass rush.

More short to intermediate throws probably helps.

Rule changes. 

the vertical game has diminished as time passes, more so than the running game

 
Sadness over both of these 

[billsfan1959]

1 hour ago, matter2003 said:

I'm sure the rule changes come into play a lot with this, but I've always wondered why there are so few INT's thrown these days.

 

As an example Kelly threw 17 or more INTs in 8 of his 11 seasons here.  His other 3 seasons were 9, 11, and 13. This with throwing relatively few passes in comparison to today's NFL, with 480 in his rookie season being the most he ever threw. This year, 18 QB's had more attempts than that. In 1986, only 8 other QB's had more than that. In 1986 25 QB's had 10 or more INT's with Moon leading the way with 26. This year only 10 QB's had 10 or more, but Winston posted an unreal(for this era) 30 INT's. 

 

As a comparison, this year there were 17,853 pass attempts with 410 INT's thrown.  In 1986 there were 14,469 pass attempts and 581 INT's thrown.  So back then there were 171 more INT's on almost 3,400 fewer passes.

 

Other than rule changes what else explains the lower number of INT's?  Better QB play?  Better Film Study?  Better Route/System Concepts?

 

I'm casting a vote for rule changes favoring offenses....defensive backs just can't really do much of anything compared to what they used to be able to do without getting flagged for it.

 

 

 

Sports Illustrated did an article on this back in October: "The Declining Interception Rate in the NFL"

 

https://www.si.com/nfl/2019/10/02/nfl-interception-rate-decline

[Kirby Jackson]

Concepts and film study for me and they go together. There is SO much more information now than there was even 5 years ago. Basically, teams can “scheme themself safe.” There used to be a lot more situations where the “best man won.” Now teams do lots of creative things to try to avoid the “best man.” 

[dave mcbride]

I think the top four options are all roughly equal contributors to the decline. 

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

I voted other

 

who the he’ll really knows?       

 

there were 2 options I wanted to choose so I bent other as in both 

 

Rules. 

Concepts.  

[Jay_Fixit]

100% rule changes.

[Buffalo_Stampede]

Schemes. A lot more short high percentage passes.

[LABILLBACKER]

You can no longer pressure the qb anymore.  D-lineman now pull up to avoid flags. QBs are much more comfortable and dbs aren't allowed to breathe on receivers. That's 90% of it.

[Boatdrinks]

Some of it is concepts, but most of it is not being able to breathe on QBs ( some more than others) without worrying about the flag being thrown. QBs made a lot more throws under duress before changes like the Brady rule, and legal grounding of the ball. Throws under pressure = more INTs. QBs now enjoy clean pockets, take far fewer hits after they’ve released the ball ( players used to get a one step cushion) and can play until they’re almost able to apply for an AARP card. 

[K-9]

A myriad of explanations to be sure, as has been pointed out. Two that come to mind are the evolution of offenses towards a shorter passing game with higher percentage passes and the proliferation of sub packages as the league has moved to a greater degree of specialization over the years. 

[MJS]

Offensive systems play a huge part. Back then everyone took a seven step drop and heaved it down field.

 

These days they get the ball out quick in space to play makers.