Hapless Bills Fan Posted January 1, 2020 Posted January 1, 2020 30 minutes ago, MJS said: This year was a revelation. Passing yards are correlated, but not the cause of winning games. There is a minimum threshold for winning games. Anything above that threshold is unimportant, but if you are throwing less than that threshold you are dead in the water. Not sure what the number is, but I'd guess it's around 215 yards passing. Consistently less than that and you are not going to consistently win games. Anything more than that is enough to consistently win games. Someone would have to run the analysis to find out what the actual number is. Winning a game is more like an equation than a single stat. Throwing for 500 yards but 5 INT's and no TD's is going to be a loss. Throwing for 150 yards and 5 TD's is going to be a win. There's a sweet spot somewhere that includes yards, TD's, and turnovers. So in spring 2018 when I did the analysis, the "floor" for passing productivity was between 210-220 ypg (depended a bit upon how one tweaked). It may be a bit lower now, actually. We'll see how it shakes out over the longer term.
JGMcD2 Posted January 1, 2020 Posted January 1, 2020 19 minutes ago, HappyDays said: The passing stats that best correlate with wins are passer rating and ANY/A: http://www.footballperspective.com/any-a-rushing-yards-and-winning-percentage/ Total passing yards barely has any correlation to wins. Every other major passing statistic correlates better. I haven’t looked in awhile at football specifically but aren’t PF and PA basically the end all be all in terms of correlation to wins? I know PF has a greater correlation than PA but they’re both vastly more significant than any other variable. It is a really intuitive concept that I feel some often overlook. I’m more of a baseball guy and there the entire name of the game is maximizing run prevention and run production. Those concepts are leaking over with football analytics.
Hapless Bills Fan Posted January 1, 2020 Posted January 1, 2020 Just now, JGMcD2 said: I haven’t looked in awhile at football specifically but aren’t PF and PA basically the end all be all in terms of correlation to wins? I know PF has a greater correlation than PA but they’re both vastly more significant than any other variable. It is a really intuitive concept that I feel some often overlook. I’m more of a baseball guy and there the entire name of the game is maximizing run prevention and run production. Those concepts are leaking over with football analytics. Spoken like a guy who just might post a graph of Net Points (Point differential) vs Wins every week 1
MJS Posted January 1, 2020 Posted January 1, 2020 27 minutes ago, HappyDays said: The passing stats that best correlate with wins are passer rating and ANY/A: http://www.footballperspective.com/any-a-rushing-yards-and-winning-percentage/ Total passing yards barely has any correlation to wins. Every other major passing statistic correlates better. Passer rating is a combination of lots of passing stats, so that makes sense.
Dan Posted January 1, 2020 Posted January 1, 2020 35 minutes ago, ColoradoBills said: I wonder the same thing. If it isn't then Daboll won't be here long. If it is then Daboll needs at least another year. Agreed. I think he gets a minimum of 1 more year regardless. Assuming of course he doesn't jump to a HC gig. But I just can't see them deciding after 2 years and a 10win season, that they need to shake up the coaching staff. Personally, I like the approach they're taking wth Josh and the offense. It's complicated, they're limiting his running, and it's causing them to have an inconsistent year. But it seems they're trying to teach him to be a true NFL QB that can read all the defenses and make all the throws. If you wanna be the franchise guy for 10-15 yrs... that's what you need to do. The scramblers, the one read RPO guys, they just don't seem to last long. 5
MJS Posted January 1, 2020 Posted January 1, 2020 8 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said: So in spring 2018 when I did the analysis, the "floor" for passing productivity was between 210-220 ypg (depended a bit upon how one tweaked). It may be a bit lower now, actually. We'll see how it shakes out over the longer term. Cool. I was pretty spot on. Did you run a regression using bins for yard categories, or what did you do for the analysis? It would be interesting to look at it from a total yards standpoint, combining passing yards with rushing yards for the QB. It would also be interesting to see if QB rushing yards are equal to passing yards in impacting wins, or if one or the other impacts wins slightly more. 1
BillsFan4 Posted January 1, 2020 Posted January 1, 2020 Don’t take the job Brian! https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/25797430/inside-cleveland-browns-front-office-where-hope-history-collide This article is from January 2019. It’s not a surprise the browns continue to be a mess when you read about how Haslam runs the team.
Hapless Bills Fan Posted January 1, 2020 Posted January 1, 2020 32 minutes ago, MJS said: Cool. I was pretty spot on. Did you run a regression using bins for yard categories, or what did you do for the analysis? It would be interesting to look at it from a total yards standpoint, combining passing yards with rushing yards for the QB. It would also be interesting to see if QB rushing yards are equal to passing yards in impacting wins, or if one or the other impacts wins slightly more. To be honest I didn't look at YPG on their own, I wasn't trying to correlate with wins, and I didn't perform formal regression analysis. The context is, I was looking for a way to sort "successful NFL QB" (not Magical Franchise Man, just a guy I believe the overall consensus would be "you can win with him if enough pieces are in place") from unsuccessful ones, as a precursor to looking at where they were drafted. Wins are important, but since a good QB can be stuck on a sucky team or a "meh" QB can succeed on a great team, they couldn't be my marker. I had 3 parameters emerge (completion %, TD/INT, YPA) with loose criteria (but the guy had to hit all 3) and it didn't quite work. So I noticed if I put in a 4th, a YPG "floor", Eureka. Since my goal was looking at draft position of successful QB, I never did the obvious thing to go back and look at whether a YPG floor could replace one of the other three. But the "floor" was lower than a lot of people might think, right around 210-220 ypg. We think along similar lines I believe - I've been thinking that total QB yards, total TDs, and total turnovers might be the new "normal" to look for a correlation to winning. 1
GreggTX Posted January 2, 2020 Posted January 2, 2020 I'd love to have Greg Roman back. He was Rex's scapegoat. Just imagine what he could do with Allen. Get a big #1 WR, a probowl LT, RG and D Henry and sweep the Patriots in 2020. It'll never happen though. Baltimore isn't about to let him get away unless someone offers him a HC job. I also think Chan could make a probowler out of Singletary. Look out for the fish also. They won far more games than anyone predicted with almost no talent and they'll have both money and draft picks this year. 1
MJS Posted January 2, 2020 Posted January 2, 2020 49 minutes ago, GreggTX said: I'd love to have Greg Roman back. He was Rex's scapegoat. Just imagine what he could do with Allen. Get a big #1 WR, a probowl LT, RG and D Henry and sweep the Patriots in 2020. It'll never happen though. Baltimore isn't about to let him get away unless someone offers him a HC job. I also think Chan could make a probowler out of Singletary. Look out for the fish also. They won far more games than anyone predicted with almost no talent and they'll have both money and draft picks this year. The only problem is Roman's commitment to the running game. It might stunt Allen's development as a passer.
Buffalo Barbarian Posted January 2, 2020 Posted January 2, 2020 On 12/30/2019 at 8:18 PM, YoloinOhio said: dont do it Brian, the organization is a sh!t show, thats were coaches go to die. On 12/30/2019 at 8:22 PM, QB Bills said: Keep him. Let McClappy interview there instead. sounds like you're as smart as Jimmy Haslam 1
Nihilarian Posted January 2, 2020 Posted January 2, 2020 4 hours ago, GreggTX said: I'd love to have Greg Roman back. He was Rex's scapegoat. Just imagine what he could do with Allen. Get a big #1 WR, a probowl LT, RG and D Henry and sweep the Patriots in 2020. It'll never happen though. Baltimore isn't about to let him get away unless someone offers him a HC job. I also think Chan could make a probowler out of Singletary. Look out for the fish also. They won far more games than anyone predicted with almost no talent and they'll have both money and draft picks this year. My thoughts are I honestly hope that Daboll puts it all together and gets the Bills offense rolling against some good playoff teams. If the Bills retain him after that I'm fine with it. However, should he fall on his face and still get offers to be a HC elsewhere GL to him. Greg Roman will certainly get a HCing shot somewhere and I'm thinking any of the openings, Panthers, Cowboys, Giants or perhaps Browns. He has to be the hottest candidate out there right now. If the Bills lose Daboll to the Browns I'd rather see Anthony Lynn if fired by the Chargers as he would be my first choice. 1
BringBackOrton Posted January 2, 2020 Posted January 2, 2020 47 minutes ago, Nihilarian said: My thoughts are I honestly hope that Daboll puts it all together and gets the Bills offense rolling against some good playoff teams. If the Bills retain him after that I'm fine with it. However, should he fall on his face and still get offers to be a HC elsewhere GL to him. Greg Roman will certainly get a HCing shot somewhere and I'm thinking any of the openings, Panthers, Cowboys, Giants or perhaps Browns. He has to be the hottest candidate out there right now. If the Bills lose Daboll to the Browns I'd rather see Anthony Lynn if fired by the Chargers as he would be my first choice. Lynn won’t be bringing Roman’s playbook or Pro Bowlers with him. Hard pass. 2
GunnerBill Posted January 2, 2020 Posted January 2, 2020 24 minutes ago, Nihilarian said: My thoughts are I honestly hope that Daboll puts it all together and gets the Bills offense rolling against some good playoff teams. If the Bills retain him after that I'm fine with it. However, should he fall on his face and still get offers to be a HC elsewhere GL to him. Greg Roman will certainly get a HCing shot somewhere and I'm thinking any of the openings, Panthers, Cowboys, Giants or perhaps Browns. He has to be the hottest candidate out there right now. If the Bills lose Daboll to the Browns I'd rather see Anthony Lynn if fired by the Chargers as he would be my first choice. Anthony Lynn has zero track record as an offensive coordinator. He demonstrated here in Buffalo that he can be an effective play caller..... but we have no idea at all if he can design an offense. I think that is too big of a risk to give to Allen in this, what I consider to be the most critical, offseason. If Daboll goes (and you and I differ on whether that is a good thing or not) then I am either looking for another E-P guy or promoting Ken Dorsey and asking him to retain substantially the same offense and the same verbiage etc. If looking outside for an E-P guy then Chad O'Shea who was just fired by Miami might make some sense here and so might the guy I have basically wanted us to hire for about 3 years Sean Ryan who while never having been an offensive coordinator was (as the Houston QB coach) intricately involved in designing the passing offense that Deshaun Watson ran as a rookie that combined what he did well at Clemson with the E-P that is Bill O'Brien's base offense. He left last year after being overlooked for the OC job and went to Detroit as their QB coach under Darrell Bevell who is another pretty good offensive mind. Ryan is kind of the opposite to Lynn - has been heavily engaged in scheme and play design but has never been a play caller so I suppose there would be significant risk there too. I think the likely outcome if Daboll were to leave (I still don't believe that will end up happening, but who knows) is Dorsey is promoted because continuity for Allen is likely McDermott's number 1 objective this offseason. 3
BringBackOrton Posted January 2, 2020 Posted January 2, 2020 (edited) 1 hour ago, GunnerBill said: Anthony Lynn has zero track record as an offensive coordinator. He demonstrated here in Buffalo that he can be an effective play caller..... but we have no idea at all if he can design an offense. I think that is too big of a risk to give to Allen in this, what I consider to be the most critical, offseason. If Daboll goes (and you and I differ on whether that is a good thing or not) then I am either looking for another E-P guy or promoting Ken Dorsey and asking him to retain substantially the same offense and the same verbiage etc. If looking outside for an E-P guy then Chad O'Shea who was just fired by Miami might make some sense here and so might the guy I have basically wanted us to hire for about 3 years Sean Ryan who while never having been an offensive coordinator was (as the Houston QB coach) intricately involved in designing the passing offense that Deshaun Watson ran as a rookie that combined what he did well at Clemson with the E-P that is Bill O'Brien's base offense. He left last year after being overlooked for the OC job and went to Detroit as their QB coach under Darrell Bevell who is another pretty good offensive mind. Ryan is kind of the opposite to Lynn - has been heavily engaged in scheme and play design but has never been a play caller so I suppose there would be significant risk there too. I think the likely outcome if Daboll were to leave (I still don't believe that will end up happening, but who knows) is Dorsey is promoted because continuity for Allen is likely McDermott's number 1 objective this offseason. Great post. Everybody talks about coordinators not going to teams in turmoil like the Browns, but that’s overblown. HC opportunities dry up for guys a lot earlier that coordinator jobs. If I’m Daboll and the Browns offer me the job, I take it. Worst comes to worst, you get fired after 2-3 years and have a $15M windfall. Then you get a BS job somewhere as a TE coach and a year later you’re an OC again. If he passes on an HC job and Allen regresses, or the offense sucks harder, and he gets fired as a coordinator, he may not get another HC offer again. Fired HC’s get coordinator jobs. Fired coordinators don’t often become HC’s. Dorsey would probably be the one tapped, IMO. We may even see offensive improvement if he’s a better playcaller. Edited January 2, 2020 by BringBackOrton 1
GunnerBill Posted January 2, 2020 Posted January 2, 2020 26 minutes ago, BringBackOrton said: Great post. Everybody talks about coordinators not going to teams in turmoil like the Browns, but that’s overblown. HC opportunities dry up for guys a lot earlier that coordinator jobs. If I’m Daboll and the Browns offer me the job, I take it. Worst comes to worst, you get fired after 2-3 years and have a $15M windfall. Then you get a BS job somewhere as a TE coach and a year later you’re an OC again. If he passes on an HC job and Allen regresses, or the offense sucks harder, and he gets fired as a coordinator, he may not get another HC offer again. Fired HC’s get coordinator jobs. Fired coordinators don’t often become HC’s. Dorsey would probably be the one tapped, IMO. We may even see offensive improvement if he’s a better playcaller. Indeed. History is littered with guys who were hot coordinators for a few years and then suddenly the offers dried up. Hell, there were 3 years in a row that Greg Roman got HC looks, then nothing since. That will change this year you would expect but there are no guarantees. Ray Horton is the other one I always go to. He was the DC in Arizona under Whiz and a hot name for 2 or 3 hiring cycles without ever landing a job. He spent last year coaching DBs in Washington. If the opportunity knocks turning it down and waiting it out is a risky business. 1
Hapless Bills Fan Posted January 2, 2020 Posted January 2, 2020 8 hours ago, GreggTX said: I'd love to have Greg Roman back. He was Rex's scapegoat. Just imagine what he could do with Allen. Get a big #1 WR, a probowl LT, RG and D Henry and sweep the Patriots in 2020. It'll never happen though. Baltimore isn't about to let him get away unless someone offers him a HC job. I also think Chan could make a probowler out of Singletary. Look out for the fish also. They won far more games than anyone predicted with almost no talent and they'll have both money and draft picks this year. I think Greg Roman is the perfect offensive coordinator for Lamar Jackson. You are correct, it's a moot point because Roman will not leave Baltimore except for a HC gig (assuming he wants one) 40 minutes ago, BringBackOrton said: Great post. Everybody talks about coordinators not going to teams in turmoil like the Browns, but that’s overblown. HC opportunities dry up for guys a lot earlier that coordinator jobs. If I’m Daboll and the Browns offer me the job, I take it. Worst comes to worst, you get fired after 2-3 years and have a $15M windfall. Then you get a BS job somewhere as a TE coach and a year later you’re an OC again. If he passes on an HC job and Allen regresses, or the offense sucks harder, and he gets fired as a coordinator, he may not get another HC offer again. Fired HC’s get coordinator jobs. Fired coordinators don’t often become HC’s. Dorsey would probably be the one tapped, IMO. We may even see offensive improvement if he’s a better playcaller. That was the viewpoint Pettine took, certainly. There are other viewpoints 1
babulator Posted January 2, 2020 Posted January 2, 2020 If his resume is soo good and he's soo coveted he'd be a fool to take the job at the mistake on the lake. Going from a big guy who's eager to learn with tremendous upside to a little guy who's regressing and knows everything. Sprinkle a little cultural dysfunction and historical ineptitude and yeah... he'd be foolish.
OldTimeAFLGuy Posted January 2, 2020 Posted January 2, 2020 ….hmmmm…"Urban Renewal" on the horizon??…………. Browns have “strong interest” in Urban Meyer, per current Urban Meyer colleague Posted by Mike Florio on January 2, 2020, 10:08 AM EST The Browns seem to be casting a wide net when it comes to looking for their next head coach. The net reportedly includes former Ohio State coach Urban Meyer. The news of the Browns having “strong interest” in Meyer comes from Bruce Feldman. Both Feldman and Meyer currently work for FOX, which suggests that Meyer is one of the sources implicit in Feldman’s “per sources” designation. (Plenty of reporters use “per sources” when they have only one source; some do it deliberately, some just fail to appreciate the significance of the “per sources” term, I’m told.) https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2020/01/02/browns-have-strong-interest-in-urban-meyer-per-current-urban-meyer-colleague/
BringBackOrton Posted January 2, 2020 Posted January 2, 2020 2 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said: I think Greg Roman is the perfect offensive coordinator for Lamar Jackson. You are correct, it's a moot point because Roman will not leave Baltimore except for a HC gig (assuming he wants one) That was the viewpoint Pettine took, certainly. There are other viewpoints There sure are, but I don’t know a lot of fired coordinators who eventually got the HC tap. I’m sure there’s been a couple but that position gets turned over quite a bit. Not to mention, coordinators who become HC’s because of their success at coordinator but get fired usually maintain their rep as a good, or at least employable coordinator. Leslie Frazier, Norv Turner, etc.
Recommended Posts