mannc Posted December 30, 2019 Posted December 30, 2019 12 hours ago, Dkollidas said: I think next season we’ll likely see one or both of Kroft and Smith cut. Even if they’re not, and all 4 are kept, Knox & Sweeney will be the starters. Kroft can’t stay healthy, and Smith is a walking penalty machine. I'd like to see us draft another TE this year. It seems like a position where you can find solid players in round four or later.
Mr. WEO Posted December 30, 2019 Posted December 30, 2019 53 minutes ago, BigBuff423 said: Here's an entire article talking about a 1st Round investment in a TE. And when you starting saying things like, "most common Draft Round position of the top 20 all time..", you've basically lost the argument. Because that does NOT consider contemporary trends and what the NFL is today vs. what it was 20 or 30 years ago, let alone more. I'm sure you're more adept at information critical analysis than trying to paint with broad and errant strokes. This is not an end-all-be-all argument, but it does in short order provide some perspective: http://www.optimumscouting.com/news/replacing-gronkowski Here's a few quotes to consider: "Outside of the quarterback position, tight ends have the steepest learning curve when transitioning to the NFL." "They drafted Eric Ebron 10th overall in 2014 and low and behold the next seven picks would make a Pro Bowl while still on their rookie deal. Those players selected would include the likes of Aaron Donald and Odell Beckham. Last offseason, Detroit decided to move on from Ebron as they determined that he wasn't worth the price tag of his 5th-year option ($8.25M)." "It is really worth investing your most important draft asset into a player who may take years to develop and you may not see the benefit until four years down the road or until their second contract? Is there a better use of your resources?" "For every Shockey, you're stumbling across Jerramy Stevens, Marcedes Lewis (Breakout YR 5), Jermaine Gresham, Daniel Graham, Kyle Brady (Breakout YR 7) etc who disappointed on their rookie deals" As to the bolded portion of your reply, is it so nuanced and granular in detail that it is beyond your comprehension to see the difference in Risk : Reward ratio for a QB that you assume they have similar values? In this same fashion, Drafting a good QB in the 1st Round will absolutely change the course of your team, almost irrespective of every other factor, save a horrendous Defense. There are too many examples to note, but this I know you're well aware of so I don't need quotes, or stats, or hyperlinks for you to believe me - you know this already, which makes your QB snark a bit disingenuous to say the least. Yes, so why would you have the same standard for TE? Yes Ebron went to Indy, where he was immediately as productive for the Colts as he had been for the Lions. Last year, the Lions had crap for TEs so they had to spend, that's right, another 1st round pick on TE and bring in Jesse James to try (unsuccessfully) recover the lost output of losing Ebron. The flaw that you and cited article suffer is that it assumes that a position player drafted in the first has to have Gronk-like numbers right away or he wasn't worth the 1 round pick. That makes no sense obviously because a player 1st round TE can have real value (and only offensive production is being considered here) even if he doesn't become one of the greatest right away. As I made plain above, Miller and Clark were huge picks in the fist because they proved to be what very few 1st rounders are at any position---solid producers for your team throughout their long careers. That's not a nuanced take needing granular inspection---it's common sense.
BigBuff423 Posted December 30, 2019 Posted December 30, 2019 7 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said: Yes, so why would you have the same standard for TE? Yes Ebron went to Indy, where he was immediately as productive for the Colts as he had been for the Lions. Last year, the Lions had crap for TEs so they had to spend, that's right, another 1st round pick on TE and bring in Jesse James to try (unsuccessfully) recover the lost output of losing Ebron. The flaw that you and cited article suffer is that it assumes that a position player drafted in the first has to have Gronk-like numbers right away or he wasn't worth the 1 round pick. That makes no sense obviously because a player 1st round TE can have real value (and only offensive production is being considered here) even if he doesn't become one of the greatest right away. As I made plain above, Miller and Clark were huge picks in the fist because they proved to be what very few 1st rounders are at any position---solid producers for your team throughout their long careers. That's not a nuanced take needing granular inspection---it's common sense. In your attempt to be dismissive, that point isn't lost on me. End of the story is - we disagree on value. That's it. I have all of the stats and information to support my opinion, you have all the stats and information to support yours. We disagree on where the value is - fair enough. But instead of going back and forth, I think it's best we simply agree to disagree. 1
Hampton Josh fan Posted December 30, 2019 Posted December 30, 2019 Tight end will be a strength for us, barring injuries. Knox and Sweeney are great prospects. The problem is wide receiver. We need 2 guys like AB Brown to line up with Smoke and Beasley. Then we will be set.
Spiderweb Posted December 30, 2019 Posted December 30, 2019 15 hours ago, Dkollidas said: I think next season we’ll likely see one or both of Kroft and Smith cut. Even if they’re not, and all 4 are kept, Knox & Sweeney will be the starters. Kroft can’t stay healthy, and Smith is a walking penalty machine. Of the 3, Lee Smith is the guy who is most expendable. Clearly a no brainier.
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