Mr. WEO Posted December 30, 2019 Posted December 30, 2019 43 minutes ago, BigBuff423 said: The TE position is one of the hardest in the NFL to master. It requires catching, running with the ball, running with the blocking assignment, run and pass blocking, picking up protections and knowing the entire Offense, as in where everyone is supposed to be - not just your route or your block. I've posted this a number of times in the past when someone wanted to Draft a TE in the 1st (or even 2nd Round) when people were mentioning Antonio Gates, Jimmy Graham, Travis Kelce, Jason Witten, etc. Every one of those guys were taken in the 3rd Round or later. Gronk was a 2nd Round pick but other than Tony Gonzalez who was a 1st Rounder, few (if any), have lived up to the billing. TEs take time to develop, each of the above referenced TEs except for Gronk took at least 2 years to develop into their full potential. I think the Bills have their duo in Sweeney and Knox, with a solid guy in Kroft. Lee Smith is fine for now, but I'd prefer Sweeney in that position because I think he's a better catcher and athlete in terms of receiving but big enough to do the blocking work. Knox and Sweeney will seemingly "come out of nowhere" to people outside of Buffalo, but next year and 2021 will be years where we truly start to see their value. You left out a lot of names... Ebron, OJ Howard, Engram, Njoku (all 3 in the same draft), Eifert, Olson, Vernon Davis, Heath Miller, Dallas Clark, Jeremy Shockey, Todd Heap-- all first rounders all started out pretty well and pretty much "lived up to the billing. Looking good for Hockenson and Noah Fant (rookies this year). That's a lot of hits at TE in the first round over the years. It's not nearly as rare as you claim.
Antonio Posted December 30, 2019 Posted December 30, 2019 Love our TE class and I think that Sweeny has taken advantage of every opportunity he has got..
WhitewalkerInPhilly Posted December 30, 2019 Posted December 30, 2019 I think Kroft is a dead man walking. Knox and Sweeny are already giving you more production
wppete Posted December 30, 2019 Posted December 30, 2019 Very impressed with Tommy Sweeney yesterday. Hope he hits the weight room hard this offseason.
BigBuff423 Posted December 30, 2019 Posted December 30, 2019 (edited) 22 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said: You left out a lot of names... Ebron, OJ Howard, Engram, Njoku (all 3 in the same draft), Eifert, Olson, Vernon Davis, Heath Miller, Dallas Clark, Jeremy Shockey, Todd Heap-- all first rounders all started out pretty well and pretty much "lived up to the billing. Looking good for Hockenson and Noah Fant (rookies this year). That's a lot of hits at TE in the first round over the years. It's not nearly as rare as you claim. I didn't leave them out - you could make an argument for Engram although I don't know if he's worth a 1st round pick at this point, but I'm willing to concede that decision based on these stats: https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/E/EngrEv00.htm However, OJ Howard has NOT lived up to his 1st Round pick status and I'm not willing to concede that point, here are his stats: https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/H/HowaO.00.htm Ebron? Really? He did so well in Detroit with Stafford throwing him the ball that despite a top 10 pick, he didn't do a darn thing until he had Luck tossing him the rock. He had one good year really. That one I can't even begin to take seriously - what makes the Ebron argument worse is putting Njoku - woof. Vernon Davis didn't even begin to earn a true NFL paycheck until his 4th year, here are his stats - and again Drafted 8th Overall, not even close to worth the top 10 pick: https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/D/DaviVe00.htm Dallas Clark and Heath Miller? Come on, now you're just trying to find names to fit your narrative and opinion. Do a dive into which TEs have truly produced in the last 10 to 15 years and outside of Gonzalez in the 1st and Gronk in the 2nd, you'll find nearly every one of them was a 3rd round pick or later and they all took 2-3 years before they produced in a way that most of us would like to see the TE produce. Edit: I didn't like Heath Miller and Dallas Clark stats, so here they are: https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/M/MillHe00.htm It took Dallas Clark 5 seasons with Peyton Manning throwing him the ball to hit any appreciable mark: https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/C/ClarDa00.htm Edited December 30, 2019 by BigBuff423
Don Otreply Posted December 30, 2019 Posted December 30, 2019 6 minutes ago, Antonio said: Love our TE class and I think that Sweeny has taken advantage of every opportunity he has got.. Now we wait and see if SM takes advantage of the opportunity to actually play guys who show they can block, catch the ball and put up yards on offense. Fingers crossed ? Go Bills!!! 1
Miyagi-Do Karate Posted December 30, 2019 Posted December 30, 2019 Each TE brings something unique to the table. 1) knox: freakish athleticism. 2) Sweeney: great pass-catcher and blocker. 3) Kroft: one very good foot 4) Smith: a penchant for well-timed penalties 2
SCBills Posted December 30, 2019 Posted December 30, 2019 2 hours ago, Happy Gilmore said: I like Knox and Sweeney; lots of promise with those two. Kroft I wouldn't mind keeping if there isn't a bubble type player, such as Duke, that could play instead. Not saying Duke is better than Kroft, just that Kroft's penchant for being injured diminishes his value. Not sure I see the need to keep Lee Smith. There’s a few times I’ve heard how influential Lee Smith has been to the development of the young tight ends. Knox is a potential stud and Sweeney looks to potentially be, at least, an average-above average tight end. I do think there’s value in some of the vets we have beyond what they show on the field.
BillsfanAZ Posted December 30, 2019 Posted December 30, 2019 I hope the Bills can sign Austin Hooper from the Falcons since he will be a free agent. Cut Smith and Croom.
Antonio Posted December 30, 2019 Posted December 30, 2019 1 hour ago, SCBills said: There’s a few times I’ve heard how influential Lee Smith has been to the development of the young tight ends. Knox is a potential stud and Sweeney looks to potentially be, at least, an average-above average tight end. I do think there’s value in some of the vets we have beyond what they show on the field. Great, hire Smith as a coach then, or keep him inactive.
3rdnlng Posted December 30, 2019 Posted December 30, 2019 2 hours ago, BillsfanAZ said: I hope the Bills can sign Austin Hooper from the Falcons since he will be a free agent. Cut Smith and Croom. Who is going to fill in for him and take all the penalties? 1
billsfan89 Posted December 30, 2019 Posted December 30, 2019 Cut Kroft and sign a veteran receiving TE. I like Knox but I think he is still going to be smoothing out the edges of his game in 2020, Sweeney is a backup TE good depth but not someone I think has a future as a starter, Lee Smith is a blocking TE a role player and Kroft is worthless and overpaid. I wouldn't be opposed to signing a vet TE in the 3-4 million range to add some depth and flexibility. But yes long term I can see Knox as the starter and Sweeney as the backup.
Mr. WEO Posted December 30, 2019 Posted December 30, 2019 1 hour ago, BigBuff423 said: I didn't leave them out - you could make an argument for Engram although I don't know if he's worth a 1st round pick at this point, but I'm willing to concede that decision based on these stats: https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/E/EngrEv00.htm However, OJ Howard has NOT lived up to his 1st Round pick status and I'm not willing to concede that point, here are his stats: https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/H/HowaO.00.htm Ebron? Really? He did so well in Detroit with Stafford throwing him the ball that despite a top 10 pick, he didn't do a darn thing until he had Luck tossing him the rock. He had one good year really. That one I can't even begin to take seriously - what makes the Ebron argument worse is putting Njoku - woof. Vernon Davis didn't even begin to earn a true NFL paycheck until his 4th year, here are his stats - and again Drafted 8th Overall, not even close to worth the top 10 pick: https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/D/DaviVe00.htm Dallas Clark and Heath Miller? Come on, now you're just trying to find names to fit your narrative and opinion. Do a dive into which TEs have truly produced in the last 10 to 15 years and outside of Gonzalez in the 1st and Gronk in the 2nd, you'll find nearly every one of them was a 3rd round pick or later and they all took 2-3 years before they produced in a way that most of us would like to see the TE produce. Edit: I didn't like Heath Miller and Dallas Clark stats, so here they are: https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/M/MillHe00.htm It took Dallas Clark 5 seasons with Peyton Manning throwing him the ball to hit any appreciable mark: https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/C/ClarDa00.htm Getting a productive starter in the 1st round is an achievement at any position, as you are aware. And I looked a those stats before I posted (topic being rookie TEs taking years to be productive). 9 of the modern era TE's drafted in the in the 1st round are in the top 20 all time receiving yards for TEs. OJ Howard had 432 yards and 6 TDs as a rookie TE. That's great production. Njoku had 32 catches, 386 yards and 4 TDs as a rookie (went up to 639 yards a year later). That's great production. Ebron had 248, 537, 711 and 574 yards without Luck (in Detroit). That's solid production. Davis, in his first 2 years, had 800 yards on 72 catches for 7 TDs on 24 games. He is #12 all time for yards by a TE. Heath Miller had 39 catches in 15 starts for 459 yards and 6 TDs as a rookie. He was a solid producer for 11 seasons with the same team that drafted him in the 1st. A fantastic value. 600 yds a year average, 54 catches a year, missed 6 games in 11 years. He's #15 all time. You don't "like" those stats? Clark in 10 games had 29 catches for 340 yards as a rookie. He averaged 43 yards a game on a Colts team where he had to split catches with Marvin Harrison and Reggie Wayne. 62% of his catches produced 1st downs. You think the Colts didn't "like" those stats? Another great pick. Again, ANY 1st round pick that delivers solid value early and over time is a great use of a 1st round pick. Why argue otherwise?
eball Posted December 30, 2019 Posted December 30, 2019 If Knox can get over the dropsies he could be just as effective a weapon as Kittle. Has the talent.
BigBuff423 Posted December 30, 2019 Posted December 30, 2019 30 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said: Getting a productive starter in the 1st round is an achievement at any position, as you are aware. And I looked a those stats before I posted (topic being rookie TEs taking years to be productive). 9 of the modern era TE's drafted in the in the 1st round are in the top 20 all time receiving yards for TEs. OJ Howard had 432 yards and 6 TDs as a rookie TE. That's great production. Njoku had 32 catches, 386 yards and 4 TDs as a rookie (went up to 639 yards a year later). That's great production. Ebron had 248, 537, 711 and 574 yards without Luck (in Detroit). That's solid production. Davis, in his first 2 years, had 800 yards on 72 catches for 7 TDs on 24 games. He is #12 all time for yards by a TE. Heath Miller had 39 catches in 15 starts for 459 yards and 6 TDs as a rookie. He was a solid producer for 11 seasons with the same team that drafted him in the 1st. A fantastic value. 600 yds a year average, 54 catches a year, missed 6 games in 11 years. He's #15 all time. You don't "like" those stats? Clark in 10 games had 29 catches for 340 yards as a rookie. He averaged 43 yards a game on a Colts team where he had to split catches with Marvin Harrison and Reggie Wayne. 62% of his catches produced 1st downs. You think the Colts didn't "like" those stats? Another great pick. Again, ANY 1st round pick that delivers solid value early and over time is a great use of a 1st round pick. Why argue otherwise? It appears we have a very different definition of production and more importantly what I expect out of a 1st Round selection. The issue is that the best TEs for their careers are typically taken in the mid Rounds and it takes 2-3 years before you see real "production" but again we have a difference of opinion on that definition. Because what comes into play is not JUST the player, i.e. TE, you take in the 1st but also the players you forfeit by taking the TE in the 1st Round whereas you can get similar production from a TE in the mid Rounds AND get a DE / WR / OL in the 1st.
Mr. WEO Posted December 30, 2019 Posted December 30, 2019 9 minutes ago, BigBuff423 said: It appears we have a very different definition of production and more importantly what I expect out of a 1st Round selection. The issue is that the best TEs for their careers are typically taken in the mid Rounds and it takes 2-3 years before you see real "production" but again we have a difference of opinion on that definition. Because what comes into play is not JUST the player, i.e. TE, you take in the 1st but also the players you forfeit by taking the TE in the 1st Round whereas you can get similar production from a TE in the mid Rounds AND get a DE / WR / OL in the 1st. Does your criteria only apply to the position of TE? Apply it to QB. WR? And again, the most common draft round position of the top 20 of all time is 1st round.
Poleshifter Posted December 30, 2019 Posted December 30, 2019 10 hours ago, eSJayDee said: We also have Croom who showed promise as a developing receiver. Croom spent 3 years at WR before Tennessee moved him to TE, IIRC Could Croom be the big-bodied WR we all hope for? 1
Poleshifter Posted December 30, 2019 Posted December 30, 2019 1 hour ago, eball said: If Knox can get over the dropsies he could be just as effective a weapon as Kittle. Has the talent. Watching George Kittle makes me think that Knox could fill that role. Isn't Kittle a 3rd year guy? I love our 2 rookie TEs. Too bad Sweeney has not gotten more opportunities to play.
NickelCity Posted December 30, 2019 Posted December 30, 2019 1 hour ago, eball said: If Knox can get over the dropsies he could be just as effective a weapon as Kittle. Has the talent. His drops frustrate me to no end.
BigBuff423 Posted December 30, 2019 Posted December 30, 2019 20 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said: Does your criteria only apply to the position of TE? Apply it to QB. WR? And again, the most common draft round position of the top 20 of all time is 1st round. Here's an entire article talking about a 1st Round investment in a TE. And when you starting saying things like, "most common Draft Round position of the top 20 all time..", you've basically lost the argument. Because that does NOT consider contemporary trends and what the NFL is today vs. what it was 20 or 30 years ago, let alone more. I'm sure you're more adept at information critical analysis than trying to paint with broad and errant strokes. This is not an end-all-be-all argument, but it does in short order provide some perspective: http://www.optimumscouting.com/news/replacing-gronkowski Here's a few quotes to consider: "Outside of the quarterback position, tight ends have the steepest learning curve when transitioning to the NFL." "They drafted Eric Ebron 10th overall in 2014 and low and behold the next seven picks would make a Pro Bowl while still on their rookie deal. Those players selected would include the likes of Aaron Donald and Odell Beckham. Last offseason, Detroit decided to move on from Ebron as they determined that he wasn't worth the price tag of his 5th-year option ($8.25M)." "It is really worth investing your most important draft asset into a player who may take years to develop and you may not see the benefit until four years down the road or until their second contract? Is there a better use of your resources?" "For every Shockey, you're stumbling across Jerramy Stevens, Marcedes Lewis (Breakout YR 5), Jermaine Gresham, Daniel Graham, Kyle Brady (Breakout YR 7) etc who disappointed on their rookie deals" As to the bolded portion of your reply, is it so nuanced and granular in detail that it is beyond your comprehension to see the difference in Risk : Reward ratio for a QB that you assume they have similar values? In this same fashion, Drafting a good QB in the 1st Round will absolutely change the course of your team, almost irrespective of every other factor, save a horrendous Defense. There are too many examples to note, but this I know you're well aware of so I don't need quotes, or stats, or hyperlinks for you to believe me - you know this already, which makes your QB snark a bit disingenuous to say the least.
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