Let's for a minute flip the Offense & Defense.... Where would the Bills be?

[ComradeKayAdams]

43 minutes ago, Billsfan1972 said:

This has to be a Buffalo thing as this game is about highlights, offense, passing & scoring.....  Sorry very few yearn for another SB like last year or 14-10 games.  The teams the majority of people want to see are those capable of 30-40+ any given day.  They want to see the marquee QB & stud receivers & backs....

 

I did a quick check & the almost all the time the Bills are in the mid-low 20's in offense (30's too).  A few years 16-11 (Drew Bledsoe & Rex Ryan).  The last top 10 offense was 1998 Rob Johnson & Doug Flutie (#6).....  BTW Playoffs in 1998 & 1999.

 

Sorry that I'd like to see some offense again...... 

 

I don't think the Buffalo Bills fan base is the problem. I think your complete lack of patience is the problem. The offense was always expected to be the focus this coming off-season. The team has $90 million in cap space and 9 picks. I'm pretty sure that the 24th rated offense and the 30th rated passing game wasn't the end goal to Coach McDermott's "process." You haven't been happy with the overly conservative play calling on offense. No one has, really. But there are also real limitations to what these coaches can do, given the current personnel on offense. You have to factor that into the play calling problems first before demanding various coaches be fired.

 

You wanted the offense to be built first before the defense. McDermott disagreed and decided to support his young QB with a strong defense and a good running game first. It is what it is. In the meantime, why not enjoy the playoff run for a bit and push your offense anxieties into February? If you genuinely can't see yourself enjoying consistent Bills winning at low scores, maybe you should consider following other teams. Maybe teams that play in domes or in good weather? Or try your luck with the NBA? That's a league with a lot of scoring and negligible defense.

 

You are correct to an extent, in that the Buffalo Bills have a very long history of prioritizing a strong defense and a solid running game over a dynamic/innovative passing offense, and the fan base is much more accepting of this style of play than other fan bases. Some say it's because of the weather in Buffalo. Others say it's because that's all Bills fan have ever known, minus the K-gun years, the first half of 2002, and maybe also the Fitzmagic years. Others (like me) argue that Bills fans are among the most knowledgeable in the NFL, and they know their history. They saw Saban's traditional-minded teams dismantle Gillman's innovative passing teams twice on the big stage. They saw smaller finesse Bills teams dominated by smashmouth NFC East dynasties for 4 straight Super Bowls. Bills fans seem to be aware that - regardless of the rule changes over the years in an effort to make the sport more like flag football and seemingly more palatable to a larger audience - the fundamental principles of football remain the same: control the line of scrimmage, control the clock, have a favorable turnover differential, and just generally have your 'roided out guys out-'roid out the opposing team's 'roided out guys. The combo of strong defense + strong running game will always have value in the sport of American football, so long as football remains football.

 

One last comment: Josh Allen is less than 100 yards away from having the 11th highest season passing yards in franchise history. Brown and Beasley are likely going to both finish top-15 or so in franchise history for season receptions. Brown will likely finish top-10 in franchise history for season receiving yards. This is very noteworthy, considering that Allen is only in his second year in a bad offense and neither Brown nor Beasley are true #1 WR's. Conclusion: the Bills, under Daboll, are in fact entering the modern era of NFL passing. We're seeing the early signs of it.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

7 minutes ago, Billsfan1972 said:

As for 300 yards, it is important & if you look beyond W/L, you'll see in almost every case that throwing for 300 yards & your team has a higher win %, then when they do not.  Of course skewed by the 1-14 Bengals, Lions & Falcons this week.

 

Here is a partial list from this year.

 

I am having trouble parsing this sentence - if you look at win %, how is this looking beyond W/L?

 

This does have the appearance of a return to the 300 yd agenda, and that needs to rest.

[Billsfan1972]

29 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I am having trouble parsing this sentence - if you look at win %, how is this looking beyond W/L?

 

This does have the appearance of a return to the 300 yd agenda, and that needs to rest.

Look at the W/L % i.e. SF 100% when they pass for 300 (3-0) vs. 9-3 (.750) when they don't.....

And again if both teams throw for 300 yes there is a winner & a loser, but can't blame the loss on not throwing for 300....

42 minutes ago, KayAdams said:

 

I don't think the Buffalo Bills fan base is the problem. I think your complete lack of patience is the problem. The offense was always expected to be the focus this coming off-season. The team has $90 million in cap space and 9 picks. I'm pretty sure that the 24th rated offense and the 30th rated passing game wasn't the end goal to Coach McDermott's "process." You haven't been happy with the overly conservative play calling on offense. No one has, really. But there are also real limitations to what these coaches can do, given the current personnel on offense. You have to factor that into the play calling problems first before demanding various coaches be fired.

 

You wanted the offense to be built first before the defense. McDermott disagreed and decided to support his young QB with a strong defense and a good running game first. It is what it is. In the meantime, why not enjoy the playoff run for a bit and push your offense anxieties into February? If you genuinely can't see yourself enjoying consistent Bills winning at low scores, maybe you should consider following other teams. Maybe teams that play in domes or in good weather? Or try your luck with the NBA? That's a league with a lot of scoring and negligible defense.

 

You are correct to an extent, in that the Buffalo Bills have a very long history of prioritizing a strong defense and a solid running game over a dynamic/innovative passing offense, and the fan base is much more accepting of this style of play than other fan bases. Some say it's because of the weather in Buffalo. Others say it's because that's all Bills fan have ever known, minus the K-gun years, the first half of 2002, and maybe also the Fitzmagic years. Others (like me) argue that Bills fans are among the most knowledgeable in the NFL, and they know their history. They saw Saban's traditional-minded teams dismantle Gillman's innovative passing teams twice on the big stage. They saw smaller finesse Bills teams dominated by smashmouth NFC East dynasties for 4 straight Super Bowls. Bills fans seem to be aware that - regardless of the rule changes over the years in an effort to make the sport more like flag football and seemingly more palatable to a larger audience - the fundamental principles of football remain the same: control the line of scrimmage, control the clock, have a favorable turnover differential, and just generally have your 'roided out guys out-'roid out the opposing team's 'roided out guys. The combo of strong defense + strong running game will always have value in the sport of American football, so long as football remains football.

 

One last comment: Josh Allen is less than 100 yards away from having the 11th highest season passing yards in franchise history. Brown and Beasley are likely going to both finish top-15 or so in franchise history for season receptions. Brown will likely finish top-10 in franchise history for season receiving yards. This is very noteworthy, considering that Allen is only in his second year in a bad offense and neither Brown nor Beasley are true #1 WR's. Conclusion: the Bills, under Daboll, are in fact entering the modern era of NFL passing. We're seeing the early signs of it.

Excuse me for being impatient.  The Bills have had only 13 300 yard passing games in the last 13 years.  A guy can dream can't he?

 

As for Bills fans being more knowledgable, this is classic Bills fandom & patting themselves on the back.  We've had very little to cheer for 20 years & continue to make excuses.

 

I also expected more from Allen this year & blame the lack of production on the coaching & play calling.

 

Sorry but this is classic gullible Bills fans for believing what the coaches say & seeming happy with a little improvement, where I expected significant improvement on the offense with what the Bills (& I) hope is their franchise QB.  

 

I've pointed out Jax & Chicago & what happens when you put too much stock in the Defense & are okay with a lower tiered Offense.  There are plenty of other examples of the same.  

Edited December 29, 2019 by Billsfan1972

[Scott7975]

If you take the average of passing yards per game of the top 10 teams record wise this year you get 238 yards. 6 of the top 10 teams in passing yards per game will play their last game of the season this week.  Even with your beloved 49ers example... they average 234.8 ypg passing.

[Billsfan1972]

6 minutes ago, Scott7975 said:

If you take the average of passing yards per game of the top 10 teams record wise this year you get 238 yards. 6 of the top 10 teams in passing yards per game will play their last game of the season this week.  Even with your beloved 49ers example... they average 234.8 ypg passing.

And if you take the 10 worst offenses in the NFL....  Only the Bills (maybe Pitt) will be in the playoffs....  So still better offenses make the playoffs vs. worse......  

 

And yes when looking only at passing Balt is there too, but that is a very unique case.....

 

2018 6 of top 10 made it vs. 0-10 of the worst offenses.....

 

Who would have thunk that?????

 

All I want is some balance (i.e. a better offense)......

[Scott7975]

2 minutes ago, Billsfan1972 said:

And if you take the 10 worst offenses in the NFL....  Only the Bills (maybe Pitt) will be in the playoffs....  So still better offenses make the playoffs vs. worse......  

 

And yes when looking only at passing Balt is there too, but that is a very unique case.....

 

2018 6 of top 10 made it vs. 0-10 of the worst offenses.....

 

Who would have thunk that?????

 

All I want is some balance (i.e. a better offense)......

 

I wouldn't call 300 yards balance vs the worst 10 offenses in the league.

[Billsfan1972]

1 minute ago, Scott7975 said:

 

I wouldn't call 300 yards balance vs the worst 10 offenses in the league.

As said every team does it (annually & multiple times in almost every instance) but the Bills (and extenuating circumstances with the Steelers this year).

 

Call it what you want but Allen's passing/gm is 29th in the league.  That I hope is on the coaching, because 29th in the league is not acceptable.

 

  

[Scott7975]

1 minute ago, Billsfan1972 said:

As said every team does it (annually & multiple times in almost every instance) but the Bills (and extenuating circumstances with the Steelers this year).

 

Call it what you want but Allen's passing/gm is 29th in the league.  That I hope is on the coaching, because 29th in the league is not acceptable.

 

  

 

No, it isn't acceptable.  I agree with you there.  What I don't agree with is using some made up 300 yard number as a benchmark.  If he threw for 240 every single game and never hit 300 yards once he would still be in the top half of the league.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

49 minutes ago, Billsfan1972 said:

Look at the W/L % i.e. SF 100% when they pass for 300 (3-0) vs. 9-3 (.750) when they don't.....

 

I guess this goes along with the strange comment that one is "falling back on" considering sacks as the NFL actually does when it computes team passing yards.

 

This is moving into Sex Panther territory (60% of the time it works all the time) but I lack the patience to methodically explain why just now. 

 

Maybe one of our other resident stats and numbers lovers will do me a friendly and take it on.

 

 

[Scott7975]

[Billsfan1972]

300 is an accepted standard in the NFL, like 100 yards rushing.  

 

This is not a crusade, I use it as a benchmark, which it is when compiling statistics.  

 

No one is pointing out Brees, Rogers or Brady's 250 yard passing games.

[ComradeKayAdams]

59 minutes ago, Billsfan1972 said:

Excuse me for being impatient.  The Bills have had only 13 300 yard passing games in the last 13 years.  A guy can dream can't he?

 

As for Bills fans being more knowledgable, this is classic Bills fandom & patting themselves on the back.  We've had very little to cheer for 20 years & continue to make excuses.

 

I also expected more from Allen this year & blame the lack of production on the coaching & play calling.

 

Sorry but this is classic gullible Bills fans for believing what the coaches say & seeming happy with a little improvement, where I expected significant improvement on the offense with what the Bills (& I) hope is their franchise QB.  

 

I've pointed out Jax & Chicago & what happens when you put too much stock in the Defense & are okay with a lower tiered Offense.  There are plenty of other examples of the same.  

 

Was it reasonable to expect that much more from Allen in his second year? Were you expecting Mahomes/Watson/Jackson production from him? Josh entered the league as one of the most raw 1st round QB prospects in a long time. Many other coaches would have sat Josh Allen for an entire year (or even two...Brady sat for 1, Rodgers sat for 3, Brees took 5 years to figure things out, etc...).

 

You wanted McDermott and Daboll to unleash Allen and not force him to be a game manager. But do you remember the first Pats game in September, for example, when Josh was allowed to just be Josh and throw the ball around? Maybe the game manager role is exactly what Allen needs in his second year? He left college with major question marks on his decision-making. Maybe he needs to spend some time learning what he can and can't get away with in the NFL and learning how the best decision is sometimes just taking what the defense is giving.

 

You call me gullible and accepting of whatever McDermott/Daboll/Beane tells me. Fine. Not true, actually (just like you, I expect a top-10 or so offense next fall or else there are reasons for concern), but fine. I think you're an impatient, irrational, and also very strange person for seemingly caring more about statistical metrics like 300 yards passing than your favorite team putting together a series of wins that we haven't seen from them since 1999.

 

[Billsfan1972]

24 minutes ago, KayAdams said:

 

Was it reasonable to expect that much more from Allen in his second year? Were you expecting Mahomes/Watson/Jackson production from him? Josh entered the league as one of the most raw 1st round QB prospects in a long time. Many other coaches would have sat Josh Allen for an entire year (or even two...Brady sat for 1, Rodgers sat for 3, Brees took 5 years to figure things out, etc...).

 

You wanted McDermott and Daboll to unleash Allen and not force him to be a game manager. But do you remember the first Pats game in September, for example, when Josh was allowed to just be Josh and throw the ball around? Maybe the game manager role is exactly what Allen needs in his second year? He left college with major question marks on his decision-making. Maybe he needs to spend some time learning what he can and can't get away with in the NFL and learning how the best decision is sometimes just taking what the defense is giving.

 

You call me gullible and accepting of whatever McDermott/Daboll/Beane tells me. Fine. Not true, actually (just like you, I expect a top-10 or so offense next fall or else there are reasons for concern), but fine. I think you're an impatient, irrational, and also very strange person for seemingly caring more about statistical metrics like 300 yards passing than your favorite team putting together a series of wins that we haven't seen from them since 1999.

 

Again why not?  Saw it from Goff when McVay took over.  This small incremental improvement is not enough from your franchise QB.  

Edited December 29, 2019 by Billsfan1972

[ColoradoBills]

1 hour ago, Billsfan1972 said:

Look at the W/L % i.e. SF 100% when they pass for 300 (3-0) vs. 9-3 (.750) when they don't.....

And again if both teams throw for 300 yes there is a winner & a loser, but can't blame the loss on not throwing for 300....

Excuse me for being impatient.  The Bills have had only 13 300 yard passing games in the last 13 years.  A guy can dream can't he?

 

As for Bills fans being more knowledgable, this is classic Bills fandom & patting themselves on the back.  We've had very little to cheer for 20 years & continue to make excuses.

 

I also expected more from Allen this year & blame the lack of production on the coaching & play calling.

 

Sorry but this is classic gullible Bills fans for believing what the coaches say & seeming happy with a little improvement, where I expected significant improvement on the offense with what the Bills (& I) hope is their franchise QB.  

 

I've pointed out Jax & Chicago & what happens when you put too much stock in the Defense & are okay with a lower tiered Offense.  There are plenty of other examples of the same.  

 

Your rhetoric about your fellow Bills fans is wearing thin.

[prissythecat]

39 minutes ago, Billsfan1972 said:

300 is an accepted standard in the NFL, like 100 yards rushing.  

 

This is not a crusade, I use it as a benchmark, which it is when compiling statistics.  

 

No one is pointing out Brees, Rogers or Brady's 250 yard passing games.

 

 

300 yards passing is not an accepted standard though , even though you like to think it is. .  100 yards rushing on the other hand is a good  yard stick for offensive performance  .

[Billsfan1972]

1 hour ago, prissythecat said:

 

 

300 yards passing is not an accepted standard though , even though you like to think it is. .  100 yards rushing on the other hand is a good  yard stick for offensive performance  .

Yes it is.....  Google it....

 

https://www.google.com/search?q=300+yards+passing+in+a+game&oq=300+yards+passing+in+a+game&aqs=chrome..69i57j0l7.8278j0j7&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8

 

But whatever......

[GregPersons]

1 hour ago, prissythecat said:

 

300 yards passing is not an accepted standard though , even though you like to think it is. .  100 yards rushing on the other hand is a good  yard stick for offensive performance  .

 

?I love when Bills fans completely warp reality to be more comforting. 

[prissythecat]

34 minutes ago, Billsfan1972 said:

Yes it is.....  Google it....

 

https://www.google.com/search?q=300+yards+passing+in+a+game&oq=300+yards+passing+in+a+game&aqs=chrome..69i57j0l7.8278j0j7&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8

 

But whatever......

 

 

You just came up with a list of qbs that passed for a number of 300 yard games over a lengthy career.  What does it prove though ?  That teams with HOF qbs win more?  Golly.

 

Here is a more meaningful search result :

 

https://www.footballperspective.com/correlating-passing-stats-with-wins/

 

“Smith is correct that passing yards are not very correlated with wins...” 

 

 

[Billsfan1972]

Ryan Fitzpatrick just proved 300 yards means nothing......?

[Scott7975]

14 minutes ago, Billsfan1972 said:

Ryan Fitzpatrick just proved 300 yards means nothing......?

 

It doesn't.  Mahomes just won throwing less than 200.