Mr. WEO Posted December 28, 2019 Posted December 28, 2019 On 12/26/2019 at 7:31 PM, Billsfan1972 said: I get a lot of flack here for 100% concentrating on the Passing game & the Bills Offense. I do it because QB is the most important position in football & the Bills drafted Allen to be their franchise QB. Now McD took over a team that was 16th in Offense (Yards Gained) & have been 29th, 30th & currently 24th under his regime. The QB they drafted as their future in terms of Passing Yards/Game (and please let's not talk about his running, which has been a surprise as no one expected it & has been great) has been 32nd & 29th in two seasons. No 300 yard games (had to mention that?) either. And again remember I am a HUGE JOSH ALLEN SUPPORTER. The defense was 14th in 2016 & 26th 207, 2nd 2018 & 3rd 2019 (Yards allowed)..... Here's the source..... https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2017/opp.htm So let's pretend the Defense was decimated (going from 16th to 29th, 30th & 24th) by McD & after a blip in 2017 the Offense was now a top 5 with their franchise QB (Allen), which is not a stretch seeing what Mahomes has done in KC, would the Bills not be way ahead (and frankly more fun to watch?)? BTW 2016 the Rams were 32nd on Offense & next year under McVay #1!!!!! So it can be done. The issue is & I keep repeating is with the way McD & Daboll handle the offense & the play calling, how is anyone confident that the Bills make that next step, and are you sure that the Bills defense will continue to be this good? We'd be the 2013 Saints.
Billsfan1972 Posted December 28, 2019 Author Posted December 28, 2019 1 minute ago, Hapless Bills Fan said: That's actually the reason I've been putting up those point differential charts every week - to make the point that while everyone goes all "oooh" and "aaaah" over Big Offense, in the end it's the match between the points a team can generate, and the points their defense gives up, that matters to the outcome. A game that is won on a made field goal 46-48 and a game that is lost 17-19 on a missed field goal both come down to a FG at the end of the game. Of course, the ultimate advantage goes to a team that has both a powerful offense AND a shutdown defense. Again I won't argue the point, however to have the disparity the Bills have between O & D ultimately is not good. What is bothersome & I know oft repeated is that the Bills seem to make so little effort on Offense. The 24th ranked offense is not good enough & to be 29th, 30th & 24th tells me that they really haven't addressed it (or poor coaching & play calling). The issue is that the Bills of all playoff teams have the biggest discrepancy between Offense & Defense in terms of rankings & this is on the coaching in barely addressing it for 3 years..... Under McD they've gone from 16th on Offense in 2016 now are 24th..... In terms of the teams they've played this year the Average Offensive Rank is 20.2 & Defenses 15.5 (where I took their rankings in yards allowed or gained and then averaged them out). What this shows is that the Defense played generally vs. worse offenses throughout the year & the Offense played against league average Defenses. Again this shows that the Defense is probably over-rated based on playing worse then league average offenses & the 24th ranked offense is pretty much what they are on average. 22 minutes ago, mikemac2001 said: Maybe they are just limiting josh and trying to force the hero ball out of him in his development by forcing him to play conservative until points in the game where they need to begin to open it up. it seems at crunch time and key moments the offense tends to open up and the offense makes bigger plays 2nd and 15 in a key drive I’m not really worried about converting I feel like they will find a way Again didn't work vs. Balt & NE.....
mikemac2001 Posted December 28, 2019 Posted December 28, 2019 3 minutes ago, Billsfan1972 said: Again I won't argue the point, however to have the disparity the Bills have between O & D ultimately is not good. What is bothersome & I know oft repeated is that the Bills seem to make so little effort on Offense. The 24th ranked offense is not good enough & to be 29th, 30th & 24th tells me that they really haven't addressed it (or poor coaching & play calling). The issue is that the Bills of all playoff teams have the biggest discrepancy between Offense & Defense in terms of rankings & this is on the coaching in barely addressing it for 3 years..... Under McD they've gone from 16th on Offense in 2016 now are 24th..... In terms of the teams they've played this year the Average Offensive Rank is 20.2 & Defenses 15.5 (where I took their rankings in yards allowed or gained and then averaged them out). What this shows is that the Defense played generally vs. worse offenses throughout the year & the Offense played against league average Defenses. Again this shows that the Defense is probably over-rated based on playing worse then league average offenses & the 24th ranked offense is pretty much what they are on average. Again didn't work vs. Balt & NE..... okay that doesn’t mean it won’t work in the future
Billsfan1972 Posted December 28, 2019 Author Posted December 28, 2019 35 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said: This whole thing is premised on some theory that "the Bills have held Allen back" which is reiteratively clamored in your posts without evidence or definition. It's not impossible that the Bills have held Allen's passing, but if so, probably in the opposite way to what you think - by designing reads to be deep to shallow, by failing to plan in enough fast-developing short routes to counter pressuring D's, and possibly by Daboll failing to put Allen in a headlock and give him repeated noogies while yelling TAKE THE CHECKDOWN TO SINGLETARY DAMMIT OR THE ICY-HOT GOES IN YOUR JOCK! I'm pretty sure a bunch of checkdown passes to Singletary at or near the LOS followed by YAC aren't what you have in mind when you say "the Bills have held Allen back" AmIRite? The main things that have held the Bills offense back in order of how easy they are (for me) to spot: 1) drops by WR/TE (drops = balls deemed easily catchable) 2) missed opportunities for throws to open receivers - throw either not made, or off-target [these are easier for most people to see, but I'm never sure if it's a route or QB error] 3) lack of a WR who can make the contested, well-defensed catch and bring in the "off target, but top TE and WR around the league make that" throw Hopefully Josh realizes that he's not where he needs to be and continues to work hard in the off season on fundamental technique. And again 5 more passes a game, screens, easier passes, hurry up offense, more read options, play actions & whatever that seems to work for the better offenses in the league..... This team wishes every game was 17-13, and plays that way. And yes I complain about the drops, not catching contested balls or making that difficult catch. Making the wrong read, I'll be the first to admit I'm not smart enough to know & watching All 22's and you'll see those 1-2 plays where a receiver is running uncovered & not thrown to, but I bet that is the same for almost every QB & team, but we don't see that. We all see what we want in Allen. I want him to be great (he's a Bill after all) so i see the good & want to see more plays so i can assess him. Buffalo is 27th in pass attempts.... League average would be 5 more attempts/game. With such a good defense they should be higher.
Billsfan1972 Posted December 28, 2019 Author Posted December 28, 2019 (edited) 20 minutes ago, ScottLaw said: Agreed. I can't stand the offensive philosophy of conceding drives by running into a wall because you hold a small lead even as early late in the third or start of 4th quarter. It's asinine.... especially against a team like the Patriots. We've kept hoping it would change all season long & it hasn't. And yes will wish for the same in the playoffs..... When the Bills beat Pitt, some here applauded the smart coaching that milked the 17-10 lead & ensured no mistakes. When they lose a tight game (NE & Balt), well it is usually due to the team being better then the Bills & not bad decision making or coaching the first 54 minutes on offense. And yes I think they are much better then Houston, but expect them to play for a 17-13 win...... Yea yea I know we'll be thrilled if they do win 17-13..... As I've stated over & over this offense is better then 24th. If your QB has ranked 32nd & 29th his first two years (i.e. near the bottom)in yards/gm isn't it time to start thinking about the next QB? Again I don't believe it but that is how they play him. Edited December 28, 2019 by Billsfan1972
JoPoy88 Posted December 28, 2019 Posted December 28, 2019 If we flipped and the bills had a top 3 offense and a lower third defense I think we’d be exactly where the chiefs were last year in the AFC. Maybe one slot lower with the emergence of Jackson in Baltimore 1
Billsfan1972 Posted December 28, 2019 Author Posted December 28, 2019 28 minutes ago, JoPoy88 said: If we flipped and the bills had a top 3 offense and a lower third defense I think we’d be exactly where the chiefs were last year in the AFC. Maybe one slot lower with the emergence of Jackson in Baltimore And I'd be on here a lot less as would be excited watching the team march up and down the field. Bills fans wouldn't accept a Defense as bad as this Offense (in terms of ranking) And KC beat Baltimore this year. 1
LABILLBACKER Posted December 28, 2019 Posted December 28, 2019 On 12/26/2019 at 5:47 PM, Billsfan1972 said: How so? I think he is severely held back & badly coached. I think the offense is a lot better then it shows. The fact that every NFL team has thrown for 300 yards in each of 2017, 2018 & 2019 (except Arizona in 2018) pretty much tells you how this staff has handled the Bills offense since McD was signed. Daboll has struggled all year in how to use Allen and what kind of offense he wants to structure around him. Pretty much the complete opposite of what the Ravens did. It will take McStubborn to finally replace him.
JoPoy88 Posted December 28, 2019 Posted December 28, 2019 (edited) 19 minutes ago, Billsfan1972 said: And I'd be on here a lot less as would be excited watching the team march up and down the field. Bills fans wouldn't accept a Defense as bad as this Offense (in terms of ranking) And KC beat Baltimore this year. No argument there, I agree. Edited December 28, 2019 by JoPoy88
Billsfan1972 Posted December 28, 2019 Author Posted December 28, 2019 24 minutes ago, JoPoy88 said: No argument there, I agree. But because it's the Offense ranked so low many here are okay with it. I don't get it.
Hapless Bills Fan Posted December 28, 2019 Posted December 28, 2019 6 minutes ago, LABILLBACKER said: Daboll has struggled all year in how to use Allen and what kind of offense he wants to structure around him. Pretty much the complete opposite of what the Ravens did. It will take McStubborn to finally replace him. I agree that Daboll has struggled all year in how to use Allen and what kind of offense to put around him. In Daboll's defense, I will say that part of that struggle has a been a "fact finding mission" in trying to figure out what his offense could or could not actually perform in games. Last year, he thought he had an OL that could run and pass block, a great RB in McCoy, and an NFL-competent QB in Peterman. He wound up with an OL that could do neither, an RB that couldn't make yards absent blocking, and an NFL dud-not-stud. So this year, I think he was hedging his bets. That said, I think it's pretty clear that Daboll's idea is to run the kind of adaptable, game-by-game tailored offense that NE runs. If they try to stuff the run we'll pass deep. If they're great against the pass we'll run and dink n dunk 'em. That's great in principle but it's a very very steep hill for a young QB and 9 new pieces on offense to climb together. It's not that he doesn't know what he wants to do - he does - it's that our Jimmies and Joes struggle to execute his vision at times. And again, I think part of the frustration for Daboll may be that what he sees in practice and what he gets in games aren't aligned. Maybe Josh makes that throw to Knox 9 out of 10 times in practice and the 10th time something relatively fluky goes down. Then we get in the game, and Josh is feeling pressure and throws a fraction early, and Knox is fighting to release and maybe doesn't run quite the same route, and it fizzles. I don't see McDermott moving on from Daboll. The question is, can he get Daboll to "take a step" in which self-scouting for tendencies that predict our playcalls to other teams, and more attention to what we can and can't do, play bigger roles? That question will be just as important to our success next year I think, as whether or not Josh Allen can take a big step to be more consistent in his reads/decisions and in his throws. 1
Billsfan1972 Posted December 28, 2019 Author Posted December 28, 2019 1 hour ago, Hapless Bills Fan said: I agree that Daboll has struggled all year in how to use Allen and what kind of offense to put around him. In Daboll's defense, I will say that part of that struggle has a been a "fact finding mission" in trying to figure out what his offense could or could not actually perform in games. Last year, he thought he had an OL that could run and pass block, a great RB in McCoy, and an NFL-competent QB in Peterman. He wound up with an OL that could do neither, an RB that couldn't make yards absent blocking, and an NFL dud-not-stud. So this year, I think he was hedging his bets. That said, I think it's pretty clear that Daboll's idea is to run the kind of adaptable, game-by-game tailored offense that NE runs. If they try to stuff the run we'll pass deep. If they're great against the pass we'll run and dink n dunk 'em. That's great in principle but it's a very very steep hill for a young QB and 9 new pieces on offense to climb together. It's not that he doesn't know what he wants to do - he does - it's that our Jimmies and Joes struggle to execute his vision at times. And again, I think part of the frustration for Daboll may be that what he sees in practice and what he gets in games aren't aligned. Maybe Josh makes that throw to Knox 9 out of 10 times in practice and the 10th time something relatively fluky goes down. Then we get in the game, and Josh is feeling pressure and throws a fraction early, and Knox is fighting to release and maybe doesn't run quite the same route, and it fizzles. I don't see McDermott moving on from Daboll. The question is, can he get Daboll to "take a step" in which self-scouting for tendencies that predict our playcalls to other teams, and more attention to what we can and can't do, play bigger roles? That question will be just as important to our success next year I think, as whether or not Josh Allen can take a big step to be more consistent in his reads/decisions and in his throws. How many excuses can one make??? Unless McD comes out & takes blame for holding back the offense, you have to move on from Daboll.... Again this year should have been about repetitions for Allen & it was not imo. Again look at Arizona, who quickly moved on from Rosen (as did Miami) & their rookie (on a still lousy team) saw their passing yards increase 35% this year. The Bills supposedly invested in the offense in 2019 and brought in a new #1 & #2 WR & the passing #'s increased 19%...... And still is 29th in the league.... If the Defensive coordinators first two years were 32 & 29, where would he be?
Maine-iac Posted December 29, 2019 Posted December 29, 2019 (edited) I used to argue it when Rex was here while everyone was blaming Taylor and the offense for loses and here we are almost to the fruition of what I said needed to happen. Taylor and the offense were on the losing side of six games where we scored 24 points or more. To Bean and McDermott's credit I was skeptical but here we are. To be a playoff team and contender you need a defense that holds teams under 20 ppg and an offense that scores over 22 ppg. I can't stress enough the defensive part of that arrangement. Sure the Pats and Brady have a great offense but if you look at the SB winning teams they had the best defenses. So I've said it before and I stand by it. If the choice was a stellar offense or defense I'd take defense every time. Allen and the offense are going to keep getting better and soon it might be a moot point as we will most likely be crushing teams and everyone will throw accolades toward the offense but much like the late eighties where it was first defense not offense that resurrected this team, defense has again resurrected this team. Edited December 29, 2019 by Maine-iac
Boatdrinks Posted December 29, 2019 Posted December 29, 2019 9 hours ago, Billsfan1972 said: But because it's the Offense ranked so low many here are okay with it. I don't get it. The team wouldn’t be in the playoffs with the 29th or 32nd ranked defense, even if the offense were top ten. Anyway, ,most fans want to see the offense improved. They’re not okay with it. What would you suggest fans do about the Bills offense ? There’s nothing we can do. So perhaps you’d be more entertained by following Arizona or something. There’s little that we can do as fans except trust that those in charge will make the necessary improvements in the offseason. Their jobs depend on it, so I’d suspect they know what needs to be done. Making the playoffs and winning games is a good step, but no one on the staff would be satisfied being the 24th ranked offense. 2
Johnnycage46 Posted December 29, 2019 Posted December 29, 2019 11 hours ago, Billsfan1972 said: And I'd be on here a lot less as would be excited watching the team march up and down the field. Bills fans wouldn't accept a Defense as bad as this Offense (in terms of ranking) And KC beat Baltimore this year.
ComradeKayAdams Posted December 29, 2019 Posted December 29, 2019 12 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said: I agree that Daboll has struggled all year in how to use Allen and what kind of offense to put around him. In Daboll's defense, I will say that part of that struggle has a been a "fact finding mission" in trying to figure out what his offense could or could not actually perform in games. Last year, he thought he had an OL that could run and pass block, a great RB in McCoy, and an NFL-competent QB in Peterman. He wound up with an OL that could do neither, an RB that couldn't make yards absent blocking, and an NFL dud-not-stud. So this year, I think he was hedging his bets. That said, I think it's pretty clear that Daboll's idea is to run the kind of adaptable, game-by-game tailored offense that NE runs. If they try to stuff the run we'll pass deep. If they're great against the pass we'll run and dink n dunk 'em. That's great in principle but it's a very very steep hill for a young QB and 9 new pieces on offense to climb together. It's not that he doesn't know what he wants to do - he does - it's that our Jimmies and Joes struggle to execute his vision at times. And again, I think part of the frustration for Daboll may be that what he sees in practice and what he gets in games aren't aligned. Maybe Josh makes that throw to Knox 9 out of 10 times in practice and the 10th time something relatively fluky goes down. Then we get in the game, and Josh is feeling pressure and throws a fraction early, and Knox is fighting to release and maybe doesn't run quite the same route, and it fizzles. I don't see McDermott moving on from Daboll. The question is, can he get Daboll to "take a step" in which self-scouting for tendencies that predict our playcalls to other teams, and more attention to what we can and can't do, play bigger roles? That question will be just as important to our success next year I think, as whether or not Josh Allen can take a big step to be more consistent in his reads/decisions and in his throws. I just looked this up: there are only 7 players on offense that returned from 2018: 2 starters (Allen, Dawkins) and 5 role players/backups (Barkley, DiMarco, McKenzie, Foster, Boettger). That's remarkable. This was essentially an entirely new offense for Daboll. You have to expect growing pains from that alone. I vote for sticking with Daboll (and I'm highly certain this is what's going to happen anyway), but the team badly needs a tall X receiver and a power north-south RB before even entertaining notions of being a top-10 offense.
Billsfan1972 Posted December 29, 2019 Author Posted December 29, 2019 (edited) This has to be a Buffalo thing as this game is about highlights, offense, passing & scoring..... Sorry very few yearn for another SB like last year or 14-10 games. The teams the majority of people want to see are those capable of 30-40+ any given day. They want to see the marquee QB & stud receivers & backs.... I did a quick check & the almost all the time the Bills are in the mid-low 20's in offense (30's too). A few years 16-11 (Drew Bledsoe & Rex Ryan). The last top 10 offense was 1998 Rob Johnson & Doug Flutie (#6)..... BTW Playoffs in 1998 & 1999. Another stat.... There have been 180 4000 yard passing seasons... A Buffalo Bill has done it once..... Drew Bledsoe in in 2002. Sorry that I'd like to see some offense again...... Edited December 29, 2019 by Billsfan1972
Rochesterfan Posted December 29, 2019 Posted December 29, 2019 On 12/26/2019 at 7:31 PM, Billsfan1972 said: I get a lot of flack here for 100% concentrating on the Passing game & the Bills Offense. I do it because QB is the most important position in football & the Bills drafted Allen to be their franchise QB. Now McD took over a team that was 16th in Offense (Yards Gained) & have been 29th, 30th & currently 24th under his regime. The QB they drafted as their future in terms of Passing Yards/Game (and please let's not talk about his running, which has been a surprise as no one expected it & has been great) has been 32nd & 29th in two seasons. No 300 yard games (had to mention that?) either. And again remember I am a HUGE JOSH ALLEN SUPPORTER. The defense was 14th in 2016 & 26th 207, 2nd 2018 & 3rd 2019 (Yards allowed)..... Here's the source..... https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2017/opp.htm So let's pretend the Defense was decimated (going from 16th to 29th, 30th & 24th) by McD & after a blip in 2017 the Offense was now a top 5 with their franchise QB (Allen), which is not a stretch seeing what Mahomes has done in KC, would the Bills not be way ahead (and frankly more fun to watch?)? BTW 2016 the Rams were 32nd on Offense & next year under McVay #1!!!!! So it can be done. The issue is & I keep repeating is with the way McD & Daboll handle the offense & the play calling, how is anyone confident that the Bills make that next step, and are you sure that the Bills defense will continue to be this good? I’ll bite - if we were a higher offense and a worse defense - like in the Rex years - I suspect that we would be missing the playoffs or have little shot at winning anything - much like the Chiefs that keep getting it handed to them in the playoffs - hence their push for defensive players this off-season. 300 yard games mean nothing that has been shown in each of your other poor threads. It is a stupid stat, but for some reason it is the only one you keep coming back too. Also I think we need to get you a better thesaurus to understand “supporter” - not sure it is being used correctly. Frankly if the team was a top offense and a bottom defense - I would not be happy with the team. I do not find teams like KC with a better than average offense and a poor defense to be fun to watch. I would much prefer a top end defense and a mid level offense. I think defense travels better and works better in all weather and most importantly wins when it comes to the playoffs. So I guess in the end - if things were switched - I think we are a worse team in general and I think our chances of success would be worse. I will take JA completing 60-65% of his passes for 220 yards and let the defense lead this team because I think that gives them the best chance at both short term and long term success. Think Baltimore here rather than KC. More running and defense and less shoot outs.
Billsfan1972 Posted December 29, 2019 Author Posted December 29, 2019 (edited) 23 minutes ago, Rochesterfan said: I’ll bite - if we were a higher offense and a worse defense - like in the Rex years - I suspect that we would be missing the playoffs or have little shot at winning anything - much like the Chiefs that keep getting it handed to them in the playoffs - hence their push for defensive players this off-season. 300 yard games mean nothing that has been shown in each of your other poor threads. It is a stupid stat, but for some reason it is the only one you keep coming back too. Also I think we need to get you a better thesaurus to understand “supporter” - not sure it is being used correctly. Frankly if the team was a top offense and a bottom defense - I would not be happy with the team. I do not find teams like KC with a better than average offense and a poor defense to be fun to watch. I would much prefer a top end defense and a mid level offense. I think defense travels better and works better in all weather and most importantly wins when it comes to the playoffs. So I guess in the end - if things were switched - I think we are a worse team in general and I think our chances of success would be worse. I will take JA completing 60-65% of his passes for 220 yards and let the defense lead this team because I think that gives them the best chance at both short term and long term success. Think Baltimore here rather than KC. More running and defense and less shoot outs. Yea, KC is no fun to watch..... Neither is NO. Really you expect me & most others to believe? Yep you want to see 14-10 games.... This is getting old. While I do believe some really are truly defense first & hate passing & high octane offenses, that is the minority (or they'd change the rules to benefit defenses). Again the Bills have had a creampuff schedule, played below average offenses for the most part this year & the defense looked very good. As for 300 yards, it is important & if you look beyond W/L, you'll see in almost every case that throwing for 300 yards & your team has a higher win %, then when they do not. Of course skewed by the 1-14 Bengals, Lions & Falcons & yes losing teams. Here is a partial list from this year. I.e. Garropolo 3-0 Cousins 4-0 Brees 4-1 (loss vs. SF when Garropolo threw 300 too) + 1-0 Bridgewater Jones 2-2 (NYG 4 wins) Keenum 0-2 (Wash is lousy) Watson 2-1 (again loss when Indy threw for 300) Brissett 2-1 Mayfield 3-0 Fitz 2-1 Wentz 3-2 Brady 4-1 Darnold 2-0 Murray 1-2-1 Edited December 29, 2019 by Billsfan1972
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