Patriots Zero Blitz analysis by Brett Kollsman

[Hapless Bills Fan]

This is the same "FilmRoom" guy who did an assessment of Allen in the Ravens game that's been shared here in a couple of threads.

 

Nothing about the Bills in here, but because we've been seeing a lot of "zero blitz" I thought it would be of interest.  Bottom line up front: Repeated deep shots are NOT the only way to beat it, and if you do want an effective deep shot, better dial up great max protection.

 

 

I thought it was a clear analysis of how the Patriots run zero blitz and why it's challenging for young QB

 

If I'm not mistaken, the Ravens did similar things. 

 

Key points

-Patriots version of zero blitz is especially challenging because once a guy is blocked, he stops rushing and drops into coverage (if I'm not mistaken, the Ravens did this too).  He points out Mahomes last year held on to the ball waiting for stuff to come open which never did

-can beat zero blitz with screens, hot reads, or deep post

-deep post is most devastating response (and the one Kollsman is obviously highest on), but MUST max protect effectively to buy time.  If you don't max protect or the protection isn't effective, won't work

-Jets called no screens, and before the half, their receivers were not running correct "hot" routes and the blocking wasn't right, either

 

I would say similar things about our struggles with zero blitz: we don't max protect effectively to give time, we don't always seem to have hot routes (or the guy running what looks like it should be the hot route doesn't have his head around quickly).  When we tried to go deep, we didn't max protect effectively.  

 

[billsfanmiami(oh)]

And when all the right things do happen, there’s been overthrows. Although i think It will come around, hopefully in the playoffs! 

[Bookie Man]

Slant and go is the slayer

[Dr.Sack]

The WR screen works well but I like the idea of sending out 3 max protecting & hitting the deep post. The amazing thing about Allen’s 53 yard bomb was that there WAS a safety high playing Cover 1 to help Gilmore. Brown ran a perfect route & Allen threw Brown open on a deep post. Certainly you’d like the believe they can execute the same pattern Aaron Rodgers completed when they see this coverage again. 

[Nihilarian]

I want to complain about the Buffalo Bills lack of experience in seeing that cover one blitz and defeating it with the Bills OC, QB and line. And yet, this same thing happened to the Chiefs with a better OC (offensive minded HC) a better line, better receiver corps and QB.

 

I think I heard that Josh Allen is something like 3 for 34 on deep throws (over 30 yards) this season (8.8 completion percentage) and it seemed it was so much better last season with Foster. This is something I don't get at all because Allen with that arm of his should be very good at throwing that deep ball.

 

Its not like his receivers don't have the speed either because Brown runs a 4:43 and Foster runs a 4.41 and even McKenzie ran a 4:42. 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

36 minutes ago, billsfanmiami(oh) said:

And when all the right things do happen, there’s been overthrows. Although i think It will come around, hopefully in the playoffs! 

 

When have the right things happened against zero blitz for the Bills?  Would love to go have a look.  Thanks!

5 minutes ago, Nihilarian said:

I think I heard that Josh Allen is something like 3 for 34 on deep throws (over 30 yards) this season (8.8 completion percentage)

 

I would love to see that data. 

 

I did my own count of throws 30 yds past the LOS from weeks 7 to 16 using the Advanced Stats charts on nfl.com and tabulated 16 such throws (in 10 weeks, so average of 1.6/game).  5 were complete, so 31%.  I have no idea how that compares to other QBs and of course I could be tabulating incorrectly. 

 

I don't think we made 18 deep throws in our first 5 games, so I don't think that 34 number is correct.

[Nihilarian]

1 hour ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I would love to see that data. 

 

I did my own count of throws 30 yds past the LOS from weeks 7 to 16 using the Advanced Stats charts on nfl.com and tabulated 16 such throws (in 10 weeks, so average of 1.6/game).  5 were complete, so 31%.  I have no idea how that compares to other QBs and of course I could be tabulating incorrectly. 

 

I don't think we made 18 deep throws in our first 5 games, so I don't think that 34 number is correct.

" Allen has been woeful on passes that travel at least 30 yards. That figure, according to the passing grids found on Next Gen Stats, stands at 3-for-34, a completion percentage of 8.8 percent."

 

https://www.democratandchronicle.com/story/sports/football/nfl/bills/2019/10/24/josh-allen-buffalo-bills-quarterback-accuracy-issues-with-deep-passes/4073264002/

[Scott7975]

2 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

This is the same "FilmRoom" guy who did an assessment of Allen in the Ravens game that's been shared here in a couple of threads.

 

Nothing about the Bills in here, but because we've been seeing a lot of "zero blitz" I thought it would be of interest.  Bottom line up front: Repeated deep shots are NOT the only way to beat it, and if you do want an effective deep shot, better dial up great max protection.

 

 

I thought it was a clear analysis of how the Patriots run zero blitz and why it's challenging for young QB

 

If I'm not mistaken, the Ravens did similar things. 

 

Key points

-Patriots version of zero blitz is especially challenging because once a guy is blocked, he stops rushing and drops into coverage (if I'm not mistaken, the Ravens did this too).  He points out Mahomes last year held on to the ball waiting for stuff to come open which never did

-can beat zero blitz with screens, hot reads, or deep post

-deep post is most devastating response (and the one Kollsman is obviously highest on), but MUST max protect effectively to buy time.  If you don't max protect or the protection isn't effective, won't work

-Jets called no screens, and before the half, their receivers were not running correct "hot" routes and the blocking wasn't right, either

 

I would say similar things about our struggles with zero blitz: we don't max protect effectively to give time, we don't always seem to have hot routes (or the guy running what looks like it should be the hot route doesn't have his head around quickly).  When we tried to go deep, we didn't max protect effectively.  

 

 

but but but we schemed a guy open

 

In seriousness though... I love watching this guys stuff.  Probably the most informative guy I have seen.  Thanks for the post.

Edited December 26, 2019 by Scott7975

[JaCrispy]

3 hours ago, Nihilarian said:

I want to complain about the Buffalo Bills lack of experience in seeing that cover one blitz and defeating it with the Bills OC, QB and line. And yet, this same thing happened to the Chiefs with a better OC (offensive minded HC) a better line, better receiver corps and QB.

 

I think I heard that Josh Allen is something like 3 for 34 on deep throws (over 30 yards) this season (8.8 completion percentage) and it seemed it was so much better last season with Foster. This is something I don't get at all because Allen with that arm of his should be very good at throwing that deep ball.

 

Its not like his receivers don't have the speed either because Brown runs a 4:43 and Foster runs a 4.41 and even McKenzie ran a 4:42. 

Kurt Warner commented on this and stated that it had to do with Josh needing to  learn how to become more of a passer instead of just a thrower- similar to a pitcher in baseball learning to become more of a pitcher.

Edited December 26, 2019 by JaCrispy

[Lenigmusx]

7 hours ago, Nihilarian said:

I want to complain about the Buffalo Bills lack of experience in seeing that cover one blitz and defeating it with the Bills OC, QB and line. And yet, this same thing happened to the Chiefs with a better OC (offensive minded HC) a better line, better receiver corps and QB.

 

I think I heard that Josh Allen is something like 3 for 34 on deep throws (over 30 yards) this season (8.8 completion percentage) and it seemed it was so much better last season with Foster. This is something I don't get at all because Allen with that arm of his should be very good at throwing that deep ball.

 

Its not like his receivers don't have the speed either because Brown runs a 4:43 and Foster runs a 4.41 and even McKenzie ran a 4:42. 

Are we suggesting that Daboll/Allen Employ the Darrel LaMonica strategy for the playoffs?? Hell even if he hits on 25-30 percent that’s 4-5 scores a game. That should be enough for our defense to beat anyone. Go Pass Pro with 3 WR send the all on go routes and let Allen throw it as far as he can at least 7-10 times a game. With that speed he has to connect on at least 3 a game. Josh brings back the mad bomber philosophy?

Edited December 26, 2019 by Lenigmusx

[Hapless Bills Fan]

6 hours ago, Nihilarian said:

" Allen has been woeful on passes that travel at least 30 yards. That figure, according to the passing grids found on Next Gen Stats, stands at 3-for-34, a completion percentage of 8.8 percent."

 

https://www.democratandchronicle.com/story/sports/football/nfl/bills/2019/10/24/josh-allen-buffalo-bills-quarterback-accuracy-issues-with-deep-passes/4073264002/

 

Thanks.  Do you think I'm reading it correctly that he's talking about since Allen took over in the 2nd half of the 2018 Ravens game, up until the article was written on October 24 this year?  " However, there is one glaring hole in his game that has been present almost since the moment he took over for helpless Nathan Peterman in the third quarter of the 2018 season opener. Allen has been woeful on passes that travel at least 30 yards. That figure, according to the passing grids found on Next Gen Stats, stands at 3-for-34, a completion percentage of 8.8 percent. "

 

I didn't look back at the beginning of this season because the way the Next Gen site is storing the data made that a PITA to retrieve (and it looks like a week is missing, maybe Allen didn't pass enough that week?).  The other question is, is he talking about the travel of the pass, or passes 30 yds from the LOS?  Because of the Bills frequent use of shotgun and drop backs, there probably are more passes that travel 30 yds but only say, 15 or 20 from the LOS - but that requires too much Maths for me.

 

He then switches and starts using PFF "more than 20 yds in the air"

 

It's highly confusing, but my "people using numbers sliced to make a point" detector is going off.  I like numbers better when I can tell what interval they apply to and what the criteria are

 

I'm confident in the number I came up with for what it is: Game 5-16, 16 passes >30 yds from the LOS, completed 5, 31%.  Again no idea how that compares to another QB.   No argument it isn't good, but I don't think it's as dire as people make out, and based on the film I watch I think it's sometimes the receivers getting slowed off the line or uncalled DPI, or lack of sufficient protection.

 

 

4 hours ago, JaCrispy said:

Kurt Warner commented on this and stated that it had to do with Josh needing to  learn how to become more of a passer instead of just a thrower- similar to a pitcher in baseball learning to become more of a pitcher.

 

Yes, there's that too - a bunch of folks I respect have said that.  But I don't think that's all there is because I don't believe the Bills would be calling the shots they do if Josh weren't hitting them more reliably in practice.  And I'm not sure the point of going back to the start of last season if that's what they did, because Allen and Dawkins are the only returning starters.

[BmarvB]

1 hour ago, Lenigmusx said:

Are we suggesting that Daboll/Allen Employ the Darrel LaMonica strategy for the playoffs?? Hell even if he hits on 25-30 percent that’s 4-5 scores a game. That should be enough for our defense to beat anyone. Go Pass Pro with 3 WR send the all on go routes and let Allen throw it as far as he can at least 7-10 times a game. With that speed he has to connect on at least 3 a game. Josh brings back the mad bomber philosophy?

With his arm, why not?

[LABILLBACKER]

5 hours ago, Lenigmusx said:

Are we suggesting that Daboll/Allen Employ the Darrel LaMonica strategy for the playoffs?? Hell even if he hits on 25-30 percent that’s 4-5 scores a game. That should be enough for our defense to beat anyone. Go Pass Pro with 3 WR send the all on go routes and let Allen throw it as far as he can at least 7-10 times a game. With that speed he has to connect on at least 3 a game. Josh brings back the mad bomber philosophy?

He's not going to magically go from 8% to 30% on his deep throws. The problem all year (3-34 is correct) is not the speed of our wrs. They've been getting open. It's the flat trajectory overthrows that have plagued him all year. He's starting to show signs of finally correcting this as both his long passes to Knox & Brown had perfect "higher trajectory". The last deep pass to Knox was going back to bad habits. When he does finally fix this he'll be deadly.