Josh Allen Stat ... wow

[Mango]

42 minutes ago, Dopey said:

I agree with twistoffate. If you put Josh in the NJ situation or hook him up with Kitchens, he would be a wreck. Darnold in Buffalo's situation would be on par with Josh. Baker has the talent and if he was a Bill, coach would reign him in to the Bills new culture. I think Baker would also be on par with what Josh is doing here.

 

 

If we had the 20th ranked defense, we would be running Josh out of town. That would be just as much the wrong decision as crowning him as arrived with "half stats" where you list 6/10 games but include 10 games of scoring. 

 

Josh has made some improvements. I wouldn't call him terrible, I also wouldn't call him good. He is electric to watch though.

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

5 minutes ago, Mango said:

 

 

If we had the 20th ranked defense, we would be running Josh out of town. That would be just as much the wrong decision as crowning him as arrived with "half stats" where you list 6/10 games but include 10 games of scoring. 

 

Josh has made some improvements. I wouldn't call him terrible, I also wouldn't call him good. He is electric to watch though.

 

Who's "we?"

 

You and your pet weasel?

 

[billsfan1959]

7 minutes ago, Dr. Who said:

Among other things, this view appears to ignore the unique aspects of a person that do not easily quantify as stats. Is Allen's leadership and charisma, the combination of intense competiveness, humility, hard work and affability simply immaterial to what contributes to team culture and winning? Does one simply assume that Mayfield and Darnold, quite different personalities, transition and achieve to the same degree? One can speculatively surmise that they would be effective, even if somewhat differently, but ten Buffalo wins, the first double-digit season victory total this millenium, is a reality, not a speculation. I credit Allen for carrying a still fairly pedestrian offense with an OC who is inconsistent and often puzzling in his playcalling.

 

Good post. This idea that you can take any QB and place him in any other situation and predict the results is silly. As you say, every individual is unique and how that uniqueness affects all the other variables is different for each one. 

[Putin]

11 hours ago, Special K said:

 

Can someone explain why I’ve been seeing posts that mix capital and lowercase letters like this?

 

Just curious.

I think your phone/iPad maybe out of focus 

[DCOrange]

27 minutes ago, Dr. Who said:

Very interesting point. I've wondered about it and this is a cogent argument.

Yeah, whoever it was said it was something they'd try to study in the future but I found it to be a very interesting theory at the time. Would still think there's TE screens or mid-screens that we could try to incorporate instead but -shrugs-.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

1 hour ago, Dopey said:

You're crying to the mods?! Really?!

 

I dunno about crying, but 1) there is an Ignore feature 2) it is not appropriate to make a post on a discussion forum, then instruct others not to respond. 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

45 minutes ago, billsfan1959 said:

 

 

A little disingenuous and a bit simplistic. There are a number of variables that go into completion %. The number of dropped passes is one. Even that is not as simple as the number alone. Allen leads the league in percentage of dropped passes at 7.2%.

 

Compared to some of the "top QBs":

Mahomes 5%

Watson     4.6%

Rogers      4.3%

Cousins    3.8%

Winston    3.8%

Jackson    3.6%

Wilson       3.3%

Brees         3.3%

 

Tipped/batted passes, throw aways, spikes and, pressure are some other (not all) factors. Allen happens to be near the top of the league in all of those. Total percentage of plays in which Allen threw the ball away, spiked it, had a pass dropped, or had a pass tipped/ batted is 15.7% (leads the league)

 

Again compared to some of the "top QBs":

Mahomes 10%

Watson     9%

Rogers      10.3%

Cousins    10.1%

Winston    9.3%

Jackson    9.7%

Wilson       9.2%

Brees         7.8%

 

That's an average of 9.4% - or - a 6.3% difference than Allen. Using your argument, if allen had 6.3 % less passes dropped, thrown away, spiked, or tipped/batted his completion % would be 65% or 14th in the NFL. Or using the "league avg" (10.7%) as you did, Allen has 5% more, and 5% less passes dropped, thrown away, spiked, or tipped/batted would leave his his completion % at 64% or 18th in the NFL.

 

Let's add in pressure via blitz just for the heck of it. Allen is also 2nd in the NFL in percentage of pass attempts in which he is blitzed at 43.6% (a number which soared over the last three games). He is also tied, when blitzed, for the smallest amount of time between snap and the throw/when the pocket collapses at 2.3 seconds.

 

Allen has a lot of room for improvement; however, let's not be simplistic in our evaluations by saying his "inaccuracy" is the primary reason for his lower completion %.

 

Nicely done, from one self-ID'd numbers geek to another!

 

To reiterate a simpler analysis I did, Josh Allen has 7.2% drops (data from pro-football-reference advanced passer stats, appears to match nfl.com).

The average drop% for the 32 QB with most attempts is 4.8%.

If we take Allen's # of attempts (456) and multiply by the difference: 458 * (0.072-0.048) = 11

Now add those 11 "additional drops above mean" to his 268 passes and recalculate completion: (268+11) = 279

279/458 = 61%

 

Does Josh need to take another step, Yes. 

Does the offense need to take a step beyond Josh, also Yes.

 

 

 

[billsfan1959]

4 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

Nicely done, from one self-ID'd numbers geek to another!

 

To reiterate a simpler analysis I did, Josh Allen has 7.2% drops (data from pro-football-reference advanced passer stats, appears to match nfl.com).

The average drop% for the 32 QB with most attempts is 4.8%.

If we take Allen's # of attempts (456) and multiply by the difference: 458 * (0.072-0.048) = 11

Now add those 11 "additional drops above mean" to his 268 passes and recalculate completion: (268+11) = 279

279/458 = 61%

 

Does Josh need to take another step, Yes. 

Does the offense need to take a step beyond Josh, also Yes.

 

Yep, I like looking at numbers . He does need to take another step and I believe the vast majority of Bills' fans acknowledge that. However, I also believe that if you go below the surface when looking at the numbers, and do some real analyses, you will find a lot to be encouraged about in regard to Allen's potential to take that next step. Will he? I don't know. Can he? I absolutely believe he can.

[Chaos]

12 hours ago, BfloBillsFan said:

I’ve liked his progress this season.  Hope he takes more steps and can become a top 10-12 QB

Name 12 better

[billsfan_34]

12 hours ago, Tesla03 said:

he has really improved his gunslinging interceptions and that's a big credit to him 

 

I watched a lot of the games again and so many times Allen was driving down the field he would get let down by a drop on 3rd down or a holding pen that killed the drive. not to mention Daboll has put him in so many poor situations this season in terms of playcalling. I can't remember how many times we have failed to gain first downs on 3rd and short or even 2nd and short. 

 

get the kid some proper NFL quality WR's and talent around him, a better OC and then we can officially start judging him as franchise QB material. 

Time to let JA audible at the line- thats what the good ones are allowed to do for a highly efficient offense.

[thebandit27]

Just now, Chaos said:

Name 12 better

 

I'm an Allen Guy since pre-draft, and I can name 12 as of this moment:

Mahomes

Wilson

Brees

Brady

Rivers

Jackson

Goff

Rodgers

Cousins

Stafford

Ryan

Dak

 

Not sure I'd go much past those guys though. That was an interesting exercise because I expected to get to 15 before I really started to question if guys belonged ahead of him. It actually started at 10 or 11.

[Billsfan1972]

1 hour ago, Dopey said:

I agree with twistoffate. If you put Josh in the NJ situation or hook him up with Kitchens, he would be a wreck. Darnold in Buffalo's situation would be on par with Josh. Baker has the talent and if he was a Bill, coach would reign him in to the Bills new culture. I think Baker would also be on par with what Josh is doing here.

Again apologizing or excusing the coaching staff.  Frankly I could see Allen well ahead with Landry & Obj along with Chubb.

 

The Bills are holding Allen back and we see it with their make no mistake and be thrilled if they score 20.…..

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

4 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

 

 

Rivers

Goff

Stafford

Ryan

Dak

 

 

Goff? Dak?

 

Come on man.

 

 

[D. L. Hot-Flamethrower]

9 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

 

I'm an Allen Guy since pre-draft, and I can name 12 as of this moment:

Mahomes

Wilson

Brees

Brady

Rivers

Jackson

Goff

Rodgers

Cousins

Stafford

Ryan

Dak

 

Not sure I'd go much past those guys though. That was an interesting exercise because I expected to get to 15 before I really started to question if guys belonged ahead of him. It actually started at 10 or 11.

What's the standard here?

[thebandit27]

3 minutes ago, Joe in Winslow said:

 

Goff? Dak?

 

Come on man.

 

 

 

I say to this point in their respective careers, yes.

 

I'm being fair IMO.

Just now, D. L. Hot-Flamethrower said:

What's the standard here?

 

No real measuring stick per se; just personal opinion 

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

1 minute ago, thebandit27 said:

 

I'm being fair IMO.

 

 

 

I'm supposing you haven't watched much of either this season. Or ol' trebuchet arm Rivers, either.

 

[HappyDays]

1 hour ago, Dopey said:

I think Baker would also be on par with what Josh is doing here.

 

Really? I'd take any of Beckham, Landry, and Chubb over their counterparts here, by a mile. Njoku I'd not as big on but he does catch the ball consistently so I'd take him too. What is your possible reasoning behind this take?

[thebandit27]

6 minutes ago, Joe in Winslow said:

 

I'm supposing you haven't watched much of either this season. Or ol' trebuchet arm Rivers, either.

 

 

I watch every game every week.

 

Road Goff hasn't been great, but he was so good for the previous 2 years that he gets the nod over Allen for now.

 

As for Dak, he's had his not-so-hot moments, but QBing the NFL's best offense is a big deal IMO.

[CincyBillsFan]

4 hours ago, NoSaint said:

count rushing stats all you want. 
 

to say josh Allen is an accurate passer due to his TD to Int ratio and count rushing tds is not terribly accurate unless you are making some back door argument that his runs are super accurate passes. In which case you should just say that.

 

 

I'm not saying Allen's rushing makes him an accurate passer.  What I am saying is that when judging Allen as a QB you must include rushing yards, rushing 1st downs & rushing TD's in the assessment.  For example in recent games we've seen Allen convert two 4th & 1 plays that most QB's could not have done.  On both those drives we scored TD's following those conversions.  That's a BIG deal in a game.

 

Or put another way guys like Jackson & Allen can be highly productive QB's completing between 55 - 60% of their passes if they're making plays with their legs.  There is an evolution occurring in NFL quarterbacking right before our eyes.  It's becoming more like the college game where a QB's running game adds a lot to the overall production out of the QB position.

 

 

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

1 minute ago, thebandit27 said:

 

I watch every game every week.

 

Road Goff hasn't been great, but he was so good for the previous 2 years that he gets the nod over Allen for now.

 

As for Dak, he's had his not-so-hot moments, but QBing the NFL's best offense is a big deal IMO.

 

was it HIM that was good, or McVay?