Josh Allen Stat ... wow

[DCOrange]

9 minutes ago, aristocrat said:

one thing i'd like to know is the amount of screens we run compared to the rest of the league.  those pad the comp percentage type plays. i don't think we run one in the pats game.  blows my mind cause they killed us with those. 

 

I can't remember if it was the Cover 1 guy or the YardsPerPlay guy, but one of them was theorizing that with QBs that run like Lamar and Allen for example, it's more difficult to run screens because the edge defenders are generally trying to contain anyways and that naturally puts them in a good position to disrupt the passing lanes on screens. I think it was focused on Baltimore at the time but was basically showing that Baltimore, Buffalo, and (I think) Seattle are like 3 of the bottom 5 teams in terms of how often they throw screens.

[Hebert19]

10 hours ago, BfloBillsFan said:

I’ve liked his progress this season.  Hope he takes more steps and can become a top 10-12 QB

Based on the state of quarterbacking in the league I think he may already be this.  Stats aside how about wins and clutch time. 

 

Ps.  He also has the highest drop percentage in the NFL 

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

Nice stats / results. 
 

far better that micromanaging percentages. 
 

5 top 10 defenses and they 11th. Because people only concentrate on top 10’s

 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

37 minutes ago, JESSEFEFFER said:

 

Imo, his completion % is more the result of "stuff" and less the cause of "stuff."  I think the Bills offense would function well in Houston.  It would almost be a treat for them to play in a climate controlled domed stadium much like it was in Dallas.

 

I think you're absolutely correct.  The Bills losses and Josh's low completion percentage are a correlation, not a causation of the losses.

 

Or to put another way - plays could be being designed for lots of short dump-off throws that would probably be stuffed.  Josh could have a high completion percentage, but the same factors that are making the longer plays problematic for him to complete - poor pass protection, WR drops, uncalled DPI, ? route running, and Yep! bad throws - would still be there.

 

 

[Dopey]

4 hours ago, oldmanfan said:

So you realize this is a forum for discussion, but are unwilling to discuss?  You just want to throw your rants out there and not be challenged at all?

 

Mods?

You're crying to the mods?! Really?!

[D. L. Hot-Flamethrower]

48 minutes ago, JESSEFEFFER said:

 

Imo, his completion % is more the result of "stuff" and less the cause of "stuff."  I think the Bills offense would function well in Houston.  It would almost be a treat for them to play in a climate controlled domed stadium much like it was in Dallas.

A rational man! Welcome

[Dopey]

4 hours ago, oldmanfan said:

So when Darnold throws dumb picks it’s on Gase but when Allen cuts his int’s way down it’s because of Daboll?

 

You’re being silly at this point.

I agree with twistoffate. If you put Josh in the NJ situation or hook him up with Kitchens, he would be a wreck. Darnold in Buffalo's situation would be on par with Josh. Baker has the talent and if he was a Bill, coach would reign him in to the Bills new culture. I think Baker would also be on par with what Josh is doing here.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

1 hour ago, oldmanfan said:

It would be interesting to compare the number of few inaccurate passes with the number of dropped passes.

 

So there is an attempt to collect just this data

You can find it on https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2019/passing_advanced.htm

 

Keep mind that "Bad Throw" is defined as a throw the apparent receiver can not reasonably catch, excluding throw-aways spikes and drops.  It does not take into account whether or not the QB and the WR were "on the same page" about the route and how it was to be run.

 

6 minutes ago, Dopey said:

I agree with twistoffate. If you put Josh in the NJ situation or hook him up with Kitchens, he would be a wreck. Darnold in Buffalo's situation would be on par with Josh. Baker has the talent and if he was a Bill, coach would reign him in to the Bills new culture. I think Baker would also be on par with what Josh is doing here.

 

You can agree all you like, but it remains total speculation.

 

It is rumored that Mayfield was not on the Bills board, so it seems likely the Bills coaches do not agree with you.

[oldmanfan]

 

1 hour ago, Dopey said:

I agree with twistoffate. If you put Josh in the NJ situation or hook him up with Kitchens, he would be a wreck. Darnold in Buffalo's situation would be on par with Josh. Baker has the talent and if he was a Bill, coach would reign him in to the Bills new culture. I think Baker would also be on par with what Josh is doing here.

I disagree.

Edited December 24, 2019 by Hapless Bills Fan
meta discussion

[dakrider]

2 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

That is indeed the most important stat, 10-5.

 

But it is NOT a quarterback stat.

 

It's a team stat. That stat is officially named "Team Record in Games Started By This Quarterback (Regular Season)".

 

TEAM wins.

 

The way to evaluate Josh Allen is to look at how well he does QB stuff. Not to evaluate him based on how well the defense is playing or whether or not or field goal kicker is making his kicks.

Wins are the only stat that really matters.   There's several losing teams that have QB's with great stats.  

Completion percentage is just a simple stat.  Allen is never going to put up the high comp.%, I thought most on here knew that already? 

Bills also don't run near as many of the screen type passes and the real short throws like some teams do many times a game.  Also, Allen is not prone to throw a 3 yard pass on 3rd and 9 and more often than not goes for the first down.  These 2 things alone account for 4-5 passes every game.  And then you can also put in some dropped balls and plays where the receiver simply cannot beat his man to get the ball.   Allen himself certainly needs to improve his game, especially the beginning of games.  Part of that also imo, is the Bills offense where so many drives, especially at start of games  are runs on 1st and 2nd down and then its 3rd and 4 or 3rd and 8 or something and then the defense can tee off on the pass play.  If the Bills could start off with a more pass / run mix in games instead of "establishing the run".  But Allen also needs to come out more sharp in games too.  
I predict the playoff game (Houston) will be a very tight low scoring game and it will take big plays at key times, not completion %, to win the game. 

 

[billsfan1959]

3 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

Most of the reason Josh's % is low is that he airmails a few inaccurate passes a game. That's not the only factor, of course, but it is the main one.

 

2 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

They list the Bills as having the 3rd highest total of drops in the league!!!!!!!!!!!!! 22 drops. League average is about 17. That means the Bills have dropped around five more passes than average. If you added in five completions to Josh's stats, his completion percentage would go up to 59.8%, soaring all the way up from 32nd to 31st.

 

A little disingenuous and a bit simplistic. There are a number of variables that go into completion %. The number of dropped passes is one. Even that is not as simple as the number alone. Allen leads the league in percentage of dropped passes at 7.2%.

 

Compared to some of the "top QBs":

Mahomes 5%

Watson     4.6%

Rogers      4.3%

Cousins    3.8%

Winston    3.8%

Jackson    3.6%

Wilson       3.3%

Brees         3.3%

 

Tipped/batted passes, throw aways, spikes and, pressure are some other (not all) factors. Allen happens to be near the top of the league in all of those. Total percentage of plays in which Allen threw the ball away, spiked it, had a pass dropped, or had a pass tipped/ batted is 15.7% (leads the league)

 

Again compared to some of the "top QBs":

Mahomes 10%

Watson     9%

Rogers      10.3%

Cousins    10.1%

Winston    9.3%

Jackson    9.7%

Wilson       9.2%

Brees         7.8%

 

That's an average of 9.4% - or - a 6.3% difference than Allen. Using your argument, if allen had 6.3 % less passes dropped, thrown away, spiked, or tipped/batted his completion % would be 65% or 14th in the NFL. Or using the "league avg" (10.7%) as you did, Allen has 5% more, and 5% less passes dropped, thrown away, spiked, or tipped/batted would leave his his completion % at 64% or 18th in the NFL.

 

Let's add in pressure via blitz just for the heck of it. Allen is also 2nd in the NFL in percentage of pass attempts in which he is blitzed at 43.6% (a number which soared over the last three games). He is also tied, when blitzed, for the smallest amount of time between snap and the throw/when the pocket collapses at 2.3 seconds.

 

Allen has a lot of room for improvement; however, let's not be simplistic in our evaluations by saying his "inaccuracy" is the primary reason for his lower completion %.

Edited December 24, 2019 by billsfan1959

[Bray Wyatt]

2 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

It might. Here's a quick start. There are several sites that look at drops and they tell somewhat different stories because drops are a somewhat subjective thing.

 

Here's one:  http://stats.washingtonpost.com/fb/tmleaders.asp?range=NFL&rank=232&type=Receiving

 

They list the Bills as having the 3rd highest total of drops in the league!!!!!!!!!!!!! 22 drops. League average is about 17. That means the Bills have dropped around five more passes than average. If you added in five completions to Josh's stats, his completion percentage would go up to 59.8%, soaring all the way up from 32nd to 31st.

 

We are third in drops, but 27th in attempts, I dont think its that simple to just say add 5 more completions, jmo

7 minutes ago, billsfan1959 said:

 

 

A little disingenuous and a bit simplistic. There are a number of variables that go into completion %. The number of dropped passes is one. Even that is not as simple as the number alone. Allen leads the league in percentage of dropped passes at 7.2%.

 

Compared to some of the "top QBs":

Mahomes 5%

Watson     4.6%

Rogers      4.3%

Cousins    3.8%

Winston    3.8%

Jackson    3.6%

Wilson       3.3%

Brees         3.3%

 

Tipped/batted passes, throw aways, spikes and, pressure are some other (not all) factors. Allen happens to be near the top of the league in all of those. Total percentage of plays in which Allen threw the ball away, spiked it, had a pass dropped, or had a pass tipped/ batted is 15.7%

 

Again compared to some of the "top QBs":

Mahomes 10%

Watson     9%

Rogers      10.3%

Cousins    10.1%

Winston    9.3%

Jackson    9.7%

Wilson       9.2%

Brees         7.8%

 

Let's add in pressure via blitz just for the heck of it. Allen is also 2nd in the NFL in percentage of pass attempts in which he is blitzed at 43.6% (a number which soared over the last three games). He is also tied, when blitzed, for the smallest amount of time between snap and the throw/when the pocket collapses at 2.3 seconds.

 

Allen has a lot of room for improvement; however, let's not be simplistic in our evaluations by saying his "inaccuracy" is the primary reason for his lower completion %.

 

And then I see this, lol did way more work than I would have done, nice

[Hapless Bills Fan]

8 hours ago, oldmanfan said:

He needs to fix that, and experience should do so.  Also I wonder if  they should script the first 15 plays.  It worked for Walsh and Montana.

 

I think Daboll may be scripting the first 10 or so plays.   I think that because you see Allen just sitting on the sidelines during those plays not pouring over the Surface.   It's a problem when we go 3-and-out several times in a row.  Unfortunately the scripting is something like run-run-pass (read deep to shallow)   run-run-pass (read deep to shallow)

 

Quote

Part of it is that we are among the leaders in dropped passes.

 

Yeah, there's a bunch of factors.  Part of it is not only leading the league in dropped passes at 7.2%, but having our TE have 20% drops.  A good TE is like an RB, should be very high completion %, 70-80%.  I think it's fair to say that the TE situation did NOT go as planned for the Bills this year.  Kroft was supposed to be "The Guy".  I don't think Knox was supposed to see the field very much.  Singletary is also a novice as a pass catcher - wasn't part of the pre-draft picture that he didn't catch passes in college? 

 

Drops at the league mean would adjust Josh's completion percentage to something like 61- 62%.  Not captured in the drops is the fact that we don't have the guys who make those circus catches on other teams.  I look at some other WR and TE and the word that comes to mind is "covet".  I covet them. 

 

Part of it is on Josh, no doubt.  He flat out misses throws he should just hit - not the deep bombs, but the "honey spot" ones (like that term @Lieutenant Aldo Raine).

 

My thing is that Josh has improved his accuracy significantly where he needed to - in the "bunnies", the 5-15 yd throws.  This is reflected in an overall completion % increase of 6%.  There is clearly a big difference as well in his ability to process what he's seeing, from the beginning of the season to now.  He's slower than he should be, but that's appropriate.  Be slow and get it right, then speed up.

 

So he's a work in progress, but I don't "get" people who are so positive that he won't improve at this point, because he's already improved more than many a pundit thought possible.

 

 

[Dr. Who]

2 hours ago, billsfan1959 said:

 

Do you mean the same Barkley that, for a career, has a 59% completion rate, 10 TDs, 19 INTs, and a QB rating of 67?

 

Do you mean the same Barkley that was 9 - 16 (56%) for 127 yds, 0 TDs, 1 INT (in the red zone), and a 54 QB rating in the 1st NE game this year?

 

You need to say no more. This says everything we need to know.

Careful. This is all a veiled personal attack. One must properly indulge the rules of snowflake dialogue. After all, he comes on here to offer unique, objective analysis and being challenged on a claim is only fair if you are challenging claims he disagrees with. 

[HOUSE]

So, we got the right Josh after all

[BringBackFlutie]

2 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I could have mis-heard but I would SWEAR in Daboll's presser yesterday he said "we don't have time to self-scout"  !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! if so.  Dammit Daboll, if you want to out-smart a DC and call the right plays, YOU MUST SELF SCOUT.  Lack of self-scouting is how Belicheck ate Sean McVay for dinner and how he came back against the Falcons in the 2nd half.  MAKE TIME.  Hire someone to do it, then listen to them.  Hire a former DC and have him pressure test your game plan - tell him down and distance and what your personnel is and have him tell you what he expects.  If he's right, do something else.

 

 

I tend to agree with most of your post- especially about the getting in rhythm early piece, and I've thought that as well.  We NEED more short passes to start- and not on obvious passing downs.  Pass to set up the run-type plays.  And I do think we call bombs too early.  Josh is not in rhythm yet.

 

But as for the above quoted portion...oh dear.  Terrifying.

Edited December 24, 2019 by BringBackFlutie

[oldmanfan]

1 minute ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I think Daboll may be scripting the first 10 or so plays.   I think that because you see Allen just sitting on the sidelines during those plays not pouring over the Surface.   It's a problem when we go 3-and-out several times in a row.  Unfortunately the scripting is something like run-run-pass (read deep to shallow)   run-run-pass (read deep to shallow)

 

 

Yeah, there's a bunch of factors.  Part of it is not only leading the league in dropped passes at 7.2%, but having our TE have 20% drops.  A good TE is like an RB, should be very high completion %, 70-80%.  I think it's fair to say that the TE situation did NOT go as planned for the Bills this year.  Kroft was supposed to be "The Guy".  I don't think Knox was supposed to see the field very much.  Singletary is also a novice as a pass catcher - wasn't part of the pre-draft picture that he didn't catch passes in college? 

 

Drops at the league mean would adjust Josh's completion percentage to something like 61- 62%.  Not captured in the drops is the fact that we don't have the guys who make those circus catches on other teams.  I look at some other WR and TE and the word that comes to mind is "covet".  I covet them. 

 

Part of it is on Josh, no doubt.  He flat out misses throws he should just hit - not the deep bombs, but the "honey spot" ones (like that term @Lieutenant Aldo Raine)

 

 

Yep he misses some, no doubt.  What this thread shows is the chronic misuse of statistical analysis.  Going back to completion percentage (which I though we were way past by now), there are multiple factors involved in pass completions, some of which you’ve highlighted.  If a receiver runs pattern X and the WB thinks he should run pattern Y the QB can throw it right on the money and the ball hits the turf.

[Dr. Who]

58 minutes ago, DCOrange said:

 

I can't remember if it was the Cover 1 guy or the YardsPerPlay guy, but one of them was theorizing that with QBs that run like Lamar and Allen for example, it's more difficult to run screens because the edge defenders are generally trying to contain anyways and that naturally puts them in a good position to disrupt the passing lanes on screens. I think it was focused on Baltimore at the time but was basically showing that Baltimore, Buffalo, and (I think) Seattle are like 3 of the bottom 5 teams in terms of how often they throw screens.

Very interesting point. I've wondered about it and this is a cogent argument.

[Dr. Who]

38 minutes ago, Dopey said:

I agree with twistoffate. If you put Josh in the NJ situation or hook him up with Kitchens, he would be a wreck. Darnold in Buffalo's situation would be on par with Josh. Baker has the talent and if he was a Bill, coach would reign him in to the Bills new culture. I think Baker would also be on par with what Josh is doing here.

Among other things, this view appears to ignore the unique aspects of a person that do not easily quantify as stats. Is Allen's leadership and charisma, the combination of intense competiveness, humility, hard work and affability simply immaterial to what contributes to team culture and winning? Does one simply assume that Mayfield and Darnold, quite different personalities, transition and achieve to the same degree? One can speculatively surmise that they would be effective, even if somewhat differently, but ten Buffalo wins, the first double-digit season victory total this millenium, is a reality, not a speculation. I credit Allen for carrying a still fairly pedestrian offense with an OC who is inconsistent and often puzzling in his playcalling.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

5 hours ago, TwistofFate said:

Ill tell you the same thing I told the rest of your band of merry men, you don't like what I post, then don't respond to it.  

I don't care to respond to, read, or interact with you in any way shape or form. In fact, if there was an ignore button I'd be using it. 

 

There is an "Ignore" feature. 

 

Details vary per OS, but generally hover over the Username.  A pop-up box will appear with x-Ignore user as a feature.  Select it, and a window will open allowing you to input the Username(s) you wish to ignore, and the board features in which you wish them to be ignored.   Hope this helps.  PM if further assistance is required.

 

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