Josh Allen Stat ... wow

[DuckyBoys]

OL last year was bottom 3  This year maybe in the 20's  Progress but they can certainly get better  I hope to see Ford at guard in 2020 and some more upgrades. 

[whorlnut]

4 hours ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

Who cares what a mock says?  He is a reach because Mel Kiper says so?  One of the best offensive coaches of his generation had a qb who takes them to the playoffs every year and traded up for him to let him develop for a year rather than take a player that could help him.  That means a million more than what Mel Kiper or McShay thinks.  
 

it’s amazing how much people value their rankings and mocks.  They are purely entertainment.

Whatever man. Right or wrong, it’s a fact that Watson and Trubisky were rated higher than Mahomes that year. It was a shock to many when the Chiefs took Mahomes.

[Locomark]

I actually think the lack of two quality RBs has hurt Allen.

Frank is not a quality RB at this stage and poses no threat in the pass game. He isn’t going to bust off any big runs without a giant hole and he looks way slower than he did at season start IMO.  

Most quality teams gash you with multiple quality backs.

Maybe he is just saving it for the playoffs, where he will suddenly push the gas pedal again, but he looks like a shell of the guy we saw in the first month. 

[billsfan1959]

On 12/24/2019 at 8:03 PM, TwistofFate said:

 

And Allen was 160 with 1td and a 110 qbr against the same team at Home. 

 

Jones was 352 with 5tds and a 132 qbr on the road. 

 

This is why nobody can take you seriously. You continually misrepresent things to support your narrative.

 

Jones had a good day against Washington. He completed 66% (28-42) of his passes for 352 yards for 5 TDs. It was a great day for him and I won't down play it. However, you insinuated Allen's play against the same team was bad by comparing total yards and TDs. You failed to mention Allen had a 70% completion rate in that game (vs 66% for Jones), an 8.1 Y/A (vs 8.4 for Jones), and 1 TD. You also forgot to mention that Allen only threw the ball 20 times.

 

3 of Jones' TDs also came inside the 10 yard line. In the Buffalo game, Allen was inside the Washington 10 yard line 3 times (2 TDs and 1 FG) and all but two plays went to the running backs. Of the two plays he threw the ball, one was complete to the one yard line, which Gore then ran in.

 

Allen threw the ball very well in that game - it was just one of the more conservatively called games of the season.

[Dr. Who]

57 minutes ago, billsfan1959 said:

 

This is why nobody can take you seriously. You continually misrepresent things to support your narrative.

 

Jones had a good day against Washington. He completed 66% (28-42) of his passes for 352 yards for 5 TDs. It was a great day for him and I won't down play it. However, you insinuated Allen's play against the same team was bad by comparing total yards and TDs. You failed to mention Allen had a 70% completion rate in that game (vs 66% for Jones), an 8.1 Y/A (vs 8.4 for Jones), and 1 TD. You also forgot to mention that Allen only threw the ball 20 times.

 

3 of Jones' TDs also came inside the 10 yard line. In the Buffalo game, Allen was inside the Washington 10 yard line 3 times (2 TDs and 1 FG) and all but two plays went to the running backs. Of the two plays he threw the ball, one was complete to the one yard line, which Gore then ran in.

 

Allen threw the ball very well in that game - it was just one of the more conservatively called games of the season.

TwistofFate = NeverLetContextGetintheWayofanAgenda

[Billsfan1972]

1 hour ago, billsfan1959 said:

 

This is why nobody can take you seriously. You continually misrepresent things to support your narrative.

 

Jones had a good day against Washington. He completed 66% (28-42) of his passes for 352 yards for 5 TDs. It was a great day for him and I won't down play it. However, you insinuated Allen's play against the same team was bad by comparing total yards and TDs. You failed to mention Allen had a 70% completion rate in that game (vs 66% for Jones), an 8.1 Y/A (vs 8.4 for Jones), and 1 TD. You also forgot to mention that Allen only threw the ball 20 times.

 

3 of Jones' TDs also came inside the 10 yard line. In the Buffalo game, Allen was inside the Washington 10 yard line 3 times (2 TDs and 1 FG) and all but two plays went to the running backs. Of the two plays he threw the ball, one was complete to the one yard line, which Gore then ran in.

 

Allen threw the ball very well in that game - it was just one of the more conservatively called games of the season.

And again this should have been a game to showcase Allen, take the reigns off & judge him on his potential.  Of course the Bills decided tough it and again were in a one score game into the 4th at home vs. a punchless offensive team playing Haskins in his first start. 

Edited December 27, 2019 by Billsfan1972

[Logic]

17 hours ago, Luka said:

 

3rd in throw aways, first in drop percentage, 3rd in total drops, 31st in pocket time at 2.3 seconds, 5th in blitzes faced, 9th in completed air yards but 25th in yards after catch... there are a lot of stats that point to the OC and supporting cast faltering around him. 

 

Poorly designed plays usually have a poor outcome. The Bills fan base also just assumed that we got new players, so his supporting cast must be better. That hasn't really panned out either. John Brown and Beasley are better, sure. But the rest of the group is just as bad as last year. Or is it that the offensive coordinator is the same, so the results are the same? Do you shitcan the entire roster again? Or do you maybe go hey, this coordinator who has never been successful at the NFL level? Maybe he's the issue and we should make a change.

 

Hopefully it takes care of itself and someone stupidly hires him as a head coach or something.

None of that stats you listed point to bad coaching by Daboll. None of them.

They all point to either poor performance by Allen or poor performance by his supporting cast.

How are throw-aways Brian Daboll's fault? How are WR and TE drops Brian Daboll's fault? How is Josh Allen standing in the pocket for an eternity before making a decision Brian Daboll's fault? How is it Brian Daboll's fault that Josh Allen can't consistently recognize, diagnose, and beat blitzes, so teams continue to throw them at him? How is it Brian Daboll's fault that Josh Allen doesn't deliver the ball accurately enough to a spot that would allow his receivers to gain yards after the catch?

The stats you posted have proven my point for me.

I'm not trying to say that Daboll shoulders absolutely NONE of the blame for the offense's poor performance. I AM saying, however, that he is FAR from the primary concern. Josh Allen -- who I like, and for whom I am obviously rooting to succeed -- shoulders a lot of the blame, as your stats point out. So do the pass-catchers at all position groups. Putting all of the blame on the OC's shoulders while completely absolving the quarterback is an easy out. It's easy to just say "bring in a new OC!". It's much harder to confront the fact that your quarterback is deficient in a lot of areas.
 

[billsfan1959]

58 minutes ago, Billsfan1972 said:

And again this should have been a game to showcase Allen, take the reigns off & judge him on his potential.  Of course the Bills decided tough it and again were in a one score game into the 4th at home vs. a punchless offensive team playing Haskins in his first start. 

 

You know, I agree with you that he should have thrown more in that game. I think Allen has improved greatly since last year and I think he has tremendous potential to reach the next level. While I am not as enamored with the 300 yard standard as you are, I agree he hasn't really had that statistical breakout game and this is one of the games this year where I believe he could have (more on that in a little bit). However, I do not believe it is as simple as the coaches holding him back - I think it is much more complex than that..

 

I went back and did some number crunching on the 300 yard games this year. @Hapless Bills Fan might be interested in this as well as he has had some discussions on the topic with you as well. While there are 256 actual games per year, I will use 512 games for QB performances based on 32 teams x 16 games. This year, there have been 124 300-yard performances - or 24% of games.

 

 

300 yard games with less than 30 attempts are rare. There were only 9 (1.7% of all games), with an average completion percentage of 76% and average Y/A of 12.45. There were 25 (4.9% of all games) 300 yard games with 30-35 attempts. They had an average completion percentage of 74% and average Y/A of 10.34. So, only 27% of all 300 games (6.6% of total games) occur with 35 or less attempts. Of those, only 2 games had a completion % les than 64, and none had a Y/A less than 8.6 (with all but 2 of the 34 between 9-14 Y/A). Interestingly, 300 yard passers with 35 or less attempts were 32-2.

 

300 yard games with 36-40 Attempts accounted for 20% of 300 yrd games (4.8% of all games) and had an average completion percentage of 68% and average Y/A of 8.62.

 

So, with 40 or less attempts, a QB really has to have a minimum completion % in the low to mid 60s, and a Y/A exceeding 7 (the minimum Y/A of any 300 yard game with 40 or less attempts was 7.5).

 

I won't get into the rest of what the analyses showed. I will say that the winning percentage steadily decreases after 38-40 attempts: 38-2 with 37 or less attempts and 26-54 with 38 or more attempts.

 

Now to Allen. In general Allen leads the league in the total percentage of plays (15.7%) in which he threw the ball away, spiked it, had a pass dropped, or had a pass tipped/ batted (6% more than any of the "top QBs). He is 5th in intended air yards per att and 32nd in YAC/A (he throws deeper passes than most QBs and gets less YAC from his receivers than most QBs). He is also 2nd in the NFL in percentage of pass attempts in which he is blitzed at 43.6% (a number which soared over the last three games), and is tied, when blitzed, for the smallest amount of time between snap and the throw/when the pocket collapses at 2.3 seconds. He also has missed on a number of throws he should have made. He also plays on a team with a coaching staff that tends to play more conservatively with a lead.

 

All of that adds up to fewer chances for Allen to have that "breakout" 300 yard game. However, there were five games this year where I believe Allen could have had that breakout game. The first was the Giants game, in which he went 19-30 for 253, 63.3%, and 8.43 Y/A. His YAC/A for that game was 2.9. The average for 300 yard games with 30 or less attempts was 6.43. Let's say he got only 4.6 YAC/A - that would have given him 302 yards. 

 

The other 4 games were the two Miami games, the Washington game, and the Dallas game. He had an average completion percentage of 68%, an average of 8.24 Y/A, and an average YAC/A of 4. However, he only threw an average of 25 passes per game. It is reasonable to believe he would have come close to 300 yards in some of those games (particularly the Washington and Dallas games) with 35-37 attempts.

 

[oldmanfan]

1 minute ago, billsfan1959 said:

 

You know, I agree with you that he should have thrown more in that game. I think Allen has improved greatly since last year and I think he has tremendous potential to reach the next level. While I am not as enamored with the 300 yard standard as you are, I agree he hasn't really had that statistical breakout game and this is one of the games this year where I believe he could have (more on that in a little bit). However, I do not believe it is as simple as the coaches holding him back - I think it is much more complex than that..

 

I went back and did some number crunching on the 300 yard games this year. @Hapless Bills Fan might be interested in this as well as he has had some discussions on the topic with you as well. While there are 256 actual games per year, I will use 512 games for QB performances based on 32 teams x 16 games. This year, there have been 124 300-yard performances - or 24% of games.

 

 

300 yard games with less than 30 attempts are rare. There were only 9 (1.7% of all games), with an average completion percentage of 76% and average Y/A of 12.45. There were 25 (4.9% of all games) 300 yard games with 30-35 attempts. They had an average completion percentage of 74% and average Y/A of 10.34. So, only 27% of all 300 games (6.6% of total games) occur with 35 or less attempts. Of those, only 2 games had a completion % les than 64, and none had a Y/A less than 8.6 (with all but 2 of the 34 between 9-14 Y/A). Interestingly, 300 yard passers with 35 or less attempts were 32-2.

 

300 yard games with 36-40 Attempts accounted for 20% of 300 yrd games (4.8% of all games) and had an average completion percentage of 68% and average Y/A of 8.62.

 

So, with 40 or less attempts, a QB really has to have a minimum completion % in the low to mid 60s, and a Y/A exceeding 7 (the minimum Y/A of any 300 yard game with 40 or less attempts was 7.5).

 

I won't get into the rest of what the analyses showed. I will say that the winning percentage steadily decreases after 38-40 attempts: 38-2 with 37 or less attempts and 26-54 with 38 or more attempts.

 

Now to Allen. In general Allen leads the league in the total percentage of plays (15.7%) in which he threw the ball away, spiked it, had a pass dropped, or had a pass tipped/ batted (6% more than any of the "top QBs). He is 5th in intended air yards per att and 32nd in YAC/A (he throws deeper passes than most QBs and gets less YAC from his receivers than most QBs). He is also 2nd in the NFL in percentage of pass attempts in which he is blitzed at 43.6% (a number which soared over the last three games), and is tied, when blitzed, for the smallest amount of time between snap and the throw/when the pocket collapses at 2.3 seconds. He also has missed on a number of throws he should have made. He also plays on a team with a coaching staff that tends to play more conservatively with a lead.

 

All of that adds up to fewer chances for Allen to have that "breakout" 300 yard game. However, there were five games this year where I believe Allen could have had that breakout game. The first was the Giants game, in which he went 19-30 for 253, 63.3%, and 8.43 Y/A. His YAC/A for that game was 2.9. The average for 300 yard games with 30 or less attempts was 6.43. Let's say he got only 4.6 YAC/A - that would have given him 302 yards. 

 

The other 4 games were the two Miami games, the Washington game, and the Dallas game. He had an average completion percentage of 68%, an average of 8.24 Y/A, and an average YAC/A of 4. However, he only threw an average of 25 passes per game. It is reasonable to believe he would have come close to 300 yards in some of those games (particularly the Washington and Dallas games) with 35-37 attempts.

 

some great work here.

[billsfan1959]

2 hours ago, Billsfan1972 said:

And again this should have been a game to showcase Allen, take the reigns off & judge him on his potential.  Of course the Bills decided tough it and again were in a one score game into the 4th at home vs. a punchless offensive team playing Haskins in his first start. 

 

I have attached an excel spread sheet of all 300 yard games you might find interesting

 

2019 300 yd passing games.xlsx

[dubs]

On 12/23/2019 at 10:58 PM, Mango said:

The Bills have played 10 games since their bye, not 6. You left 4 out. Makes it read like Allen put up 21 TD’s in 6 weeks. 
 

He didn’t. 

If you add up the opponents defensive rankings, divide by the number of interceptions Josh Allen has thrown, and add Allen’s draft spot, you get the QBR. 

[TwistofFate]

3 hours ago, billsfan1959 said:

 

This is why nobody can take you seriously. You continually misrepresent things to support your narrative.

 

Jones had a good day against Washington. He completed 66% (28-42) of his passes for 352 yards for 5 TDs. It was a great day for him and I won't down play it. However, you insinuated Allen's play against the same team was bad by comparing total yards and TDs. You failed to mention Allen had a 70% completion rate in that game (vs 66% for Jones), an 8.1 Y/A (vs 8.4 for Jones), and 1 TD. You also forgot to mention that Allen only threw the ball 20 times.

 

3 of Jones' TDs also came inside the 10 yard line. In the Buffalo game, Allen was inside the Washington 10 yard line 3 times (2 TDs and 1 FG) and all but two plays went to the running backs. Of the two plays he threw the ball, one was complete to the one yard line, which Gore then ran in.

 

Allen threw the ball very well in that game - it was just one of the more conservatively called games of the season.

How the hell did I misrepresent a stat line??? 

 

It is what it is.   I didn't condemn Allens performance at all, I simply stated Jones "shredded" it. 

 

Someone made the comment it was against Washington.   So, as you point out it is one of Allens better performances, and Jones faced the same team.  I posted the stat line. 

 

You made up an assumption, I did not. 

 

I could care less how you try to downplay Jones' performance.   His 5td 300+ performance speaks for itself. 

 

The rest of your coulda, shoulda, woulda conjecture is meaningless. 

 

Ill say it again.  Im looking forward to Allen next year and if we are still having these same discussions in year 3, it's time to really re-examine the Qb position. 

 

Bottom of the league in passing for two straight years is not where we want to be, and in year 3 with a top 10 franchise Qb, you shouldn't be. 

 

 

[billsfan1959]

39 minutes ago, TwistofFate said:

How the hell did I misrepresent a stat line??? 

 

It is what it is.   I didn't condemn Allens performance at all, I simply stated Jones "shredded" it. 

 

Someone made the comment it was against Washington.   So, as you point out it is one of Allens better performances, and Jones faced the same team.  I posted the stat line. 

 

You made up an assumption, I did not. 

 

I could care less how you try to downplay Jones' performance.   His 5td 300+ performance speaks for itself. 

 

The rest of your coulda, shoulda, woulda conjecture is meaningless. 

 

Ill say it again.  Im looking forward to Allen next year and if we are still having these same discussions in year 3, it's time to really re-examine the Qb position. 

 

Bottom of the league in passing for two straight years is not where we want to be, and in year 3 with a top 10 franchise Qb, you shouldn't be. 

 

 

 

You simply posted Allen's total yards and total TDs against Jones' without any context.

 

Quit being intellectually dishonest. 

[TwistofFate]

23 minutes ago, billsfan1959 said:

 

You simply posted Allen's total yards and total TDs against Jones' without any context.

 

Quit being intellectually dishonest. 

Lmao.   ? buddy

[Billsfan1972]

1 hour ago, billsfan1959 said:

 

I have attached an excel spread sheet of all 300 yard games you might find interesting

 

2019 300 yd passing games.xlsx 50.72 kB · 2 downloads

Thanks and as I read it the W/L is 64 Wins 38 Losses (where the losing QB was the only one throwing for 300) & 2 Ties & 19 Losses (where both threw for 300).....  Again I think when both throw for 300, the losing did everything he could to keep them in the game.  And I guess a tie doesn't count. 

[billsfan1959]

2 minutes ago, Billsfan1972 said:

Thanks and as I read it the W/L is 64 Wins 38 Losses (where the losing QB was the only one throwing for 300) & 2 Ties & 19 Losses (where both threw for 300).....  Again I think when both throw for 300, the losing did everything he could to keep them in the game.  And I guess a tie doesn't count. 

 

You're right that a number of the losses were against QBs who also threw for 300. I broke out the losses to show that; however, I still think a loss is a loss, even against another 300 yard performance. What did surprise me was the W/L record of 300 yard performances with less than 38 Attempts - 32-2 with the only 2 losses coming against other 300 yard passers. I feel like those 300 yard performances (38 or less attempts) are more indicative of dominating offensive performances based on completion %, Y/A, YAC/A, and record. 

 

My overall point was that I think Allen played at that level in 4 or 5 games this year and just didn't have enough attempts (or help from his receivers in YAC) to do it. Which is encouraging to me.

[Billsfan1972]

4 minutes ago, billsfan1959 said:

 

You're right that a number of the losses were against QBs who also threw for 300. I broke out the losses to show that; however, I still think a loss is a loss, even against another 300 yard performance. What did surprise me was the W/L record of 300 yard performances with less than 38 Attempts - 32-2 with the only 2 losses coming against other 300 yard passers. I feel like those 300 yard performances (38 or less attempts) are more indicative of dominating offensive performances based on completion %, Y/A, YAC/A, and record. 

 

My overall point was that I think Allen played at that level in 4 or 5 games this year and just didn't have enough attempts (or help from his receivers in YAC) to do it. Which is encouraging to me.

I don't disagree.  My concern is they should have let the reigns off.  I want to see what he is capable of in 60 minutes (not a half or the 4th quarter, which happens too often).  Thanks for putting even more detail in the analysis.

[Billy Claude]

It seems to me they did try to take the reigns off Allen at the beginning of the year, i.e., the Jets game and we used he wasm`t ready.  Hopefully he will be ready next year.

[DuckyBoys]

2 hours ago, Billy Claude said:

It seems to me they did try to take the reigns off Allen at the beginning of the year, i.e., the Jets game and we used he wasm`t ready.  Hopefully he will be ready next year.

 

They for sure became more risk adverse in play selection after the NE game.  I don't think there was ever a chance we were going to run a open up offense.  First off McDermott has a good defense he believes in and second we dont have the personnel right now.  John Brown and Cole Beasley arent going to keep D coordinators too worried. No reliable third wr on top of it and to make matters worse the passing game features wrs heavily. 

[Billy Claude]

 

 

They did throw it something like 20 out of the first 21 plays against the jets so it seems pretty wide open to me.

Edited December 28, 2019 by Billy Claude