Aussie Joe Posted December 22, 2019 Posted December 22, 2019 2 minutes ago, BillsFan692 said: Not really that important to us. We had no reason not to let it all hang out there today and to be super aggressive knowing that we are already clinched and never have an opportunity like this one. Really? the game wasn’t important to us? Too important to let it come down to a low percentage 2 pt play in my view.. 7 minutes ago, Kelly the Dog said: No. I'm saying against any other team you likely go to overtime. Against them, maybe you go for the 50-50 chance of scoring the two. I’ll take the 97 per cent chance to send it to OT by kicking the EP.. My point about the coin toss in OT is that if it goes your way, there is a chance the Pats never even touch the ball again..
BillsFan692 Posted December 22, 2019 Posted December 22, 2019 12 minutes ago, Aussie Joe said: Really? the game wasn’t important to us? Too important to let it come down to a low percentage 2 pt play in my view.. I’ll take the 97 per cent chance to send it to OT by kicking the EP.. My point about the coin toss in OT is that if it goes your way, there is a chance the Pats never even touch the ball again.. Not that important for us to be so conservative. It was the patriots that had everything to lose and us with everything to gain. It should have been them playing it safe and conservative (belichick too smart for that never would).... McDermott looked foolish. Like he didnt understand the situation or the opportunity. To be honest im not sure he DESERVES coach of the year . He has done really well but he has one more step to take and I dont think he has learned how yet.
BobbyC81 Posted December 22, 2019 Posted December 22, 2019 1 hour ago, SCBills said: Normally I think we kick the extra point in that spot, but I don’t know if we had any desire to go to OT in an 80% meaningless game re: playoffs. What are you talking about 80% meaningless? A win gave them a shot at the division and a chance at the #2 seed and 1st round bye
Kelly the Dog Posted December 22, 2019 Posted December 22, 2019 2 minutes ago, ColeB said: What are you talking about 80% meaningless? A win gave them a shot at the division and a chance at the #2 seed and 1st round bye Which is why you gamble in this game to win if you can at the end. 3
mannc Posted December 22, 2019 Posted December 22, 2019 1 hour ago, Kelly the Dog said: The Dolphins did it against the Jets this year. I'm pretty sure another team did too. You’re right. Plenty of teams have lately. Although I’m usually in favor of going for 2, I probably would not have there. We ran the ball poorly all night and I think the odds would have favored the pats stuffing it.
Process Posted December 22, 2019 Posted December 22, 2019 In the Ravens game I would have. In this game, no. I agree with you.
Aussie Joe Posted December 22, 2019 Posted December 22, 2019 9 minutes ago, mannc said: You’re right. Plenty of teams have lately. Although I’m usually in favor of going for 2, I probably would not have there. We ran the ball poorly all night and I think the odds would have favored the pats stuffing it. Like I said earlier... what teams are going for it that aren’t involved in Tank Bowls?
Estro Posted December 22, 2019 Posted December 22, 2019 The smart answer is YES....... 1. The Patriots offense was getting the better of the Bills defense 2. The Bills offense was struggling for long stretches between the big plays 3. No need to risk injury and continue playing in OT Don't forget the Pats would've still had plenty of time to get into FG range and retake the lead......but you at least ensure no OT by going for 2. 1
mannc Posted December 22, 2019 Posted December 22, 2019 Just now, Aussie Joe said: Like I said earlier... what teams are going for it that aren’t involved in Tank Bowls? I ca t think of specific examples, but I’ve seen several teams do it this year. It’s generally a pretty good idea.
Aussie Joe Posted December 22, 2019 Posted December 22, 2019 1 minute ago, mannc said: I ca t think of specific examples, but I’ve seen several teams do it this year. It’s generally a pretty good idea. Well come back to me when you have a specific example.. You said there are “plenty” right ? I disagree with your point
Buffalo716 Posted December 22, 2019 Posted December 22, 2019 This is one of the few times where I would say yes
Kelly the Dog Posted December 22, 2019 Posted December 22, 2019 (edited) 11 minutes ago, Aussie Joe said: Well come back to me when you have a specific example.. You said there are “plenty” right ? I disagree with your point A few points here. 1. You're right and hardly anyone does it. 2. The only reason anyone would do it is, if you think the % of scoring one two yard play, is greater than the % of you going to overtime and winning. 3. Teams at home are way less likely to make that gamble than teams playing at home. BUT... To me... what is the norm of what every team would do or the odds should be thrown out the window when you are playing the Patriots. The percentage of times THEY score when they have to go the length of the field is WAY above the average team. It's not even close. And it's been true for 20 years. They're incredible at it so the chances against them in OT, especially at home, is WAY different than any other team. So your chance of winning on one two yard play against them, versus taking your chances against them in their stadium in OT may be way different than any other team. I think it is. Now that I think about it, I think it's a no brainer BETTER chance of one play from the two yard line than beating the Pats in OT in New England, which would be in the 30 percentile. Edited December 22, 2019 by Kelly the Dog
Aussie Joe Posted December 22, 2019 Posted December 22, 2019 Just now, Kelly the Dog said: A few points here. 1. You're right and hardly anyone does it. 2. The only reason anyone would do it is, if you think the % of scoring one two yard play, is greater than the % of you going to overtime and winning. 3. Teams at home are way less likely to make that gamble than teams playing at home. BUT... To me... what is the normmor what every team would do or the odds should be thrown out the window when you are playing the Patriots. The percentage of times THEY score when they have to go the length of the field is WAY above the average team. It's not even close. And it's been true for 20 years. They're incredible at it so the chances against them in OT, especially at home, is WAY different than any other team. So your chance of winning on one two yard play against them, versus taking your chances against them in their stadium in OT may be way different than any other team. I think it is. Now that I think about it, I think it's a no brainer BETTER chance of one play from the two yard line than beating the Pats in OT in New England, which would be in the 30 percentile. thanks for your well thought out opinion which you are more than entitled too...Same as I am entitled to mine... I would suggest we both might agree however that McD is pretty unlikely to go for 2 in that situation given the conservatism he displays so it’s pretty much a moot point . I think he would have been much more likely to have gone for it on the 4th and less than 1 on one of the earlier 4th Quarter drives when he punted, then go for 2 in this hypothetical situation.. In respect of coaches/teams going for it generally in that situation... to be clear about my argument, there are examples but as per my original point these as far as I can recall been in pretty much unimportant game’s...If I have forgotten important games where this has happened then I am happy to be corrected... 1
Kelly the Dog Posted December 22, 2019 Posted December 22, 2019 3 minutes ago, Aussie Joe said: thanks for your well thought out opinion which you are more than entitled too...Same as I am entitled to mine... I would suggest we both might agree however that McD is pretty unlikely to go for 2 in that situation given the conservatism he displays so it’s pretty much a moot point . I think he would have been much more likely to have gone for it on the 4th and less than 1 on one of the earlier 4th Quarter drives when he punted, then go for 2 in this hypothetical situation.. In respect of coaches/teams going for it generally in that situation... to be clear about my argument, there are examples but as per my original point these as far as I can recall been in pretty much unimportant game’s...If I have forgotten important games where this has happened then I am happy to be corrected... No question. I think for sure that McDermott would have kicked it. It's possible I guess he would have gone for two but highly unlikely. My point was 99% of every game I personally would kick it, tie it, and go to overtime. BUT... the Pats are SO good at scoring when they need to, especially a FG, this may be the only situation where I would go for two right at the end. Every decision you make at any time is what gives you the best chance to win. One play at the two yard line for the Bills because of Josh's running ability is likely at least 50%. The chance you will beat them in OT on the road is likely less than 50%. So this may be the only team you go for two against. Because it gives you a better chance to win. 1
MJS Posted December 22, 2019 Posted December 22, 2019 1 hour ago, Kelly the Dog said: Because the Patriots almost always score when they need to? Different from all 31 other teams? Then I guess we'd be doomed anyway, if that's the case.
Kelly the Dog Posted December 22, 2019 Posted December 22, 2019 5 minutes ago, MJS said: Then I guess we'd be doomed anyway, if that's the case. Why? Josh is excellent as a runner from 2 yards in. He can run or throw. Both Singletary and Gore are good for two yards. They have a very good record this year for red zone scoring from in close. They already scored earlier in the game from there. Why would we be doomed?
MJS Posted December 22, 2019 Posted December 22, 2019 4 minutes ago, Kelly the Dog said: Why? Josh is excellent as a runner from 2 yards in. He can run or throw. Both Singletary and Gore are good for two yards. They have a very good record this year for red zone scoring from in close. They already scored earlier in the game from there. Why would we be doomed? Because the Pats score when they need to, according to you. Sorry, but two point conversion at the end of the game, against the best defense in the league, with a below average offense, is a bad idea. Instant lost game. At least go to overtime and give yourself a shot.
Kelly the Dog Posted December 22, 2019 Posted December 22, 2019 8 minutes ago, MJS said: Because the Pats score when they need to, according to you. Sorry, but two point conversion at the end of the game, against the best defense in the league, with a below average offense, is a bad idea. Instant lost game. At least go to overtime and give yourself a shot. You're not very good at this, huh. You just said "Because the Pats score when they need to." That's the whole freakin' point! You don't give them that chance because they will score and beat you.
cage Posted December 22, 2019 Posted December 22, 2019 I've liked the strategy of going for the two in these situations for a long time. I have a Twitter list of Bills reporters that I follow during games (from WGR, TBN, Athletic, D&C,....) and the consensus in that group was also mostly to go for two
peterpan Posted December 22, 2019 Posted December 22, 2019 The cheaters would have went right back down the field and scored either way. 1
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