Dan Orlovsky Praises McDermott, Comments on Josh Allen Criticism (Analytics Twitter?)

[Scott7975]

1 hour ago, Socal-805 said:

 

 

Where do you feel he has specifically improved from year 1 to year 2?  I am asking for your view or perception, because although I am seeing SOME improvement, there is no huge leap that is apparent:  he is taking fewer BIG hits.

 

o  he was sacked 28 X last year, and already he has been sacked 34 X this year.

o  he is on pace for about the same number of INTS.

o  fumbling remains an issue.

o  Pct % completion has gone up, but still below 60 %.

o  passing games was 31st in league last year, 27th in league this year.

 

 

 

He has played 2 more games this year so far than last.

He is not on pace for the same number of ints over the same amount of games.  He will have at least 5 extra games this season if he doesn't get hurt in the next 3 weeks.

Yes it does

His completions have improved period.  He is completing 4 more balls per game this season.  Its still an improvement no matter how you look at it

Still an improvement

His rating is also up 16.7 points which is pretty significant

He has also improved about 1/2 td per game.  May not sound like a lot but its 8 on the year extrapolated.

Passing yards per game up 33ish.

 

All those are subject to change with 2 games left.  One against a Jets team that will be ready to just end their season by then.  Small to decent improvements are improvements.  That's just statistical.  Do you not see improvement in the 10-20 yard range?  The bread and butter in the NFL.  He has vastly improved in this area.

 

I see a lot of progress in Josh.  Its just not as fast as you want it, but its still there.

 

 

Edited December 18, 2019 by Scott7975

[downunderbill]

1 hour ago, Socal-805 said:

 

 

Where do you feel he has specifically improved from year 1 to year 2?  I am asking for your view or perception, because although I am seeing SOME improvement, there is no huge leap that is apparent:  he is taking fewer BIG hits.

 

o  he was sacked 28 X last year, and already he has been sacked 34 X this year.

o  he is on pace for about the same number of INTS.

o  fumbling remains an issue.

o  Pct % completion has gone up, but still below 60 %.

o  passing games was 31st in league last year, 27th in league this year.

 

 

 

 

He's already played two more games and attempted 110 more passes than last year. He got sacked 2.3 times a game last year and 2.4 per game so far this year, pretty much a wash considering the 110 more drop backs. If he's on pace for the same amount interceptions the over four more games that's a decline in interceptions on a per pass/per game basis but you worded it like there is no improvement. The last three points defiantly need a lot more improvement, but are an improvement.

Way to cherry pick a few stats. 

[Bills Fan In Pittsford]

2 minutes ago, Scott7975 said:

He has played 4 more games this year so far than last.

He is not on pace for the same number of ints over the same amount of games.  He will have at least 5 extra games this season if he doesn't get hurt in the next 3 weeks.

Yes it does

His completions have improved period.  He is completing 4 more balls per game this season.  Its still an improvement no matter how you look at it

Still an improvement

His rating is also up 16.7 points which is pretty significant

He has also improved about 1/2 td per game.  May not sound like a lot but its 8 on the year extrapolated.

Passing yards per game up 33ish.

 

All those are subject to change with 2 games left.  One against a Jets team that will be ready to just end their season by then.  Small to decent improvements are improvements.  That's just statistical.  Do you not see improvement in the 10-20 yard range?  The bread and butter in the NFL.  He has vastly improved in this area.

 

I see a lot of progress in Josh.  Its just not as fast as you want it, but its still there.

 

 

I would also like to add Josh has 10 wins this season compared to 5 (I think) last year.

[Socal-805]

36 minutes ago, Mc1320 said:

How many game winning 4th quarter drives does he have this year compared to last year?  Or compared to Tyrod his 3 full years here?

 

INTs will be same for a full season compared to basically a half season last year - same with the sacks comparing a full season to half a season.  So in your mind 19/24 game in Dallas is not indicative of his potential?  In addition, us playing in close games every week with the defense we have will impact the team offensive stats.  If they have a lead late like they did Sunday night, they are comfortable going somewhat conservative on offense confident the defense will lock it down.

 

Fumbling is an issue and he still holds on to the ball to long, yes but overall their has been a clear improvement when you are not obsessed with the stats.   

 

 

He DID have a good game in Dallas, what about the last 2 games of < 49 % completions???

 

 

[Scott7975]

2 minutes ago, Socal-805 said:

 

 

He DID have a good game in Dallas, what about the last 2 games of < 49 % completions???

 

 

 

I would say that has a lot to do with two of the harshest pass rushing/ blitzing defenses in the league the last 2 weeks.  I would also say that his receivers made some pretty bad drops.  He also is to blame of course and needs to improve but its not JUST him.

Edited December 18, 2019 by Scott7975

[Socal-805]

4 minutes ago, downunderbill said:

 

He's already played two more games and attempted 110 more passes than last year. He got sacked 2.3 times a game last year and 2.4 per game so far this year, pretty much a wash considering the 110 more drop backs. If he's on pace for the same amount interceptions the over four more games that's a decline in interceptions on a per pass/per game basis but you worded it like there is no improvement. The last three points defiantly need a lot more improvement, but are an improvement.

Way to cherry pick a few stats. 

 

WRONG>  " I am seeing SOME improvement "  Learn to read.

 

Sure,  whatever.  

 

[downunderbill]

It was in reference to your interception stat "on pace for the same number of INTS" how does that say, i see some improvement and how are the stats you chose not cherry picked?

 

Edited December 18, 2019 by downunderbill

[Patrick Duffy]

Pretty good break down by Dan "the man".....

[wiley16350]

1 hour ago, Socal-805 said:

 

Very nice: interesting stats.

 

It's nice to get some actual feedback on this board instead of homers just SLAMMING someone for having a different take.

 

His sack number have definitely gone up however: talking heads on last game said he has the slowest/longest time to release in NFL.

 

 

 

That slowest time to release doesn't necessarily mean a whole lot.  The Bills don't throw a lot of screen passes, nor do they focus much on the short game.  Much of their passing games is focused on the intermediate level, which takes the longest to develop.  Then you have the plays where Allen breaks away from pressure and it takes a longer period of time for him to get into position to throw the ball.  All of that adds up to him taking a longer amount of time to get rid of the ball on average.  The biggest complaint you could have is that Allen doesn't always check down quick enough but for the most part I don't see a guy that is holding onto the ball because he just isn't seeing the field well, as that stat suggests.  It is mostly about the play calling and trying to get chunk plays in the 10-20 yard range.

[BADOLBILZ]

10 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

He was the perfect coach for the situation. Culture change is hard. It takes more than Xs and Os. 

 

 

I couldn't disagree more about the perspective..........the situation was perfect for what McD wanted to do.    There is a difference.

 

They could have hired a quality HC/man in Anthony Lynn and drafted Mahomes or Watson and kept Gilmore, Watkins, Woods  etc.. and very easily become a perennial contender.   The roster was primed for adding on to and the narrative that guys they let go were all team cancers is BS.   Lotta' SB and championship game appearances from those dudes.  Teams like the Eagles and Rams and Seahawks and Falcons have reached SB's and won a couple with setups that would have been more like what Lynn would have likely put together.    Most teams are set up like that.

 

What McD is doing here is something that doesn't work in very many places.    Most owners don't agree to let their HC/GM create the largest amount of dead money EVER generated in one season like The Pegs allowed with McD.  Some people grossly take for granted the authority a couple guys who had never proven anything were given here.   Time will tell if it yields championship football but it won't be because of any limitations imposed on the HC.   

[GunnerBill]

2 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

I couldn't disagree more about the perspective..........the situation was perfect for what McD wanted to do.    There is a difference.

 

They could have hired a quality HC/man in Anthony Lynn and drafted Mahomes or Watson and kept Gilmore, Watkins, Woods  etc.. and very easily become a perennial contender.   The roster was primed for adding on to and the narrative that guys they let go were all team cancers is BS.   Lotta' SB and championship game appearances from those dudes.  Teams like the Eagles and Rams and Seahawks and Falcons have reached SB's and won a couple with setups that would have been more like what Lynn would have likely put together.    Most teams are set up like that.

 

What McD is doing here is something that doesn't work in very many places.    Most owners don't agree to let their HC/GM create the largest amount of dead money EVER generated in one season like The Pegs allowed with McD.  Some people grossly take for granted the authority a couple guys who had never proven anything were given here.   Time will tell if it yields championship football but it won't be because of any limitations imposed on the HC.   

 

I agree it could have been done that way. I have never argued otherwise. In fact I have argued against those who try and make out that McDermott and Beane took the only possible approach. 

 

But I just think a franchise that had been where the Bills had been was going to benefit from more of a blank sheet approach. Culture change is easier with people without the baggage and while you are right that there might not have been a lot of owners willing to sign up for the McDermott plan the Pegulas are the only ones that matter here and they did. If think the 'cancer' was Rex Ryan and I believe he damaged the psyche of the previous group of guys much more than was apparent to the naked eye. 

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

15 hours ago, wppete said:

Nice video but Orlavski is annoying. 

 

...where exactly is the end zone?..........

 

[CSBill]

1 hour ago, OldTimeAFLGuy said:

 

...where exactly is the end zone?..........

 

 

Hahaha, I forgot about this epic moment in the Danny O. career. Nonetheless, he does a decent job analyzing things from a QB perspective.

[CoudyBills]

15 hours ago, Socal-805 said:

 

 

Where do you feel he has specifically improved from year 1 to year 2?  I am asking for your view or perception, because although I am seeing SOME improvement, there is no huge leap that is apparent:  he is taking fewer BIG hits.

 

o  he was sacked 28 X last year, and already he has been sacked 34 X this year.

o  he is on pace for about the same number of INTS.

o  fumbling remains an issue.

o  Pct % completion has gone up, but still below 60 %.

o  passing games was 31st in league last year, 27th in league this year.

 

 

 

Better draft a guy.  Who do you recommend?

[Gordio]

16 hours ago, Mc1320 said:

Really could care less about what people who are not following the team day-in and day-out have to say.  Josh seems to polarize people the way a certain dude in the White House does where they have already made up their mind regardless.

 

He is great with the fans, his teammates love him, he is improving, making big plays in the 4th quarter and most importantly -  he is winning games.  The analytics crowd can love a quarterback with a 65% completion percentage, 5.0 yards per attempt average throwing a 2 yard out to a back or TE on 3rd and 8 all they want, but I will take Allen any day of the week. 

 

He has a ton more potential to the upside than Baker or Sam. If he improves from year 2 to year 3 next year the way he has improved from year 1 to year 2, look the hell out because this will be a fun ride for Bills fans. 

 

 

 

 

great point, I love how he throws past the sticks on third downs.  Very few QBS in the league do that anymore.  

[Mc1320]

15 hours ago, Socal-805 said:

 

 

He DID have a good game in Dallas, what about the last 2 games of < 49 % completions???

 

 

Here are the stats you seem to be ignoring:

 

Completion percentage up 7.5% in Year 2

Quarterback Rating increased by 20 points in Year 2

Four 4th quarter comebacks and five game winning drives both tied for first in the NFL with Russell Wilson

 

Take away the 3-4 drops in the Baltimore game and what is his completion percentage then? 

[Da webster guy]

16 hours ago, Socal-805 said:

 

 

Where do you feel he has specifically improved from year 1 to year 2?  I am asking for your view or perception, because although I am seeing SOME improvement, there is no huge leap that is apparent:  he is taking fewer BIG hits.

 

o  he was sacked 28 X last year, and already he has been sacked 34 X this year.

o  he is on pace for about the same number of INTS.

o  fumbling remains an issue.

o  Pct % completion has gone up, but still below 60 %.

o  passing games was 31st in league last year, 27th in league this year.

 

 

 

Pre snap reads, 4th quarter drives, getting the ball out faster, less reliance on running, play changing, cadence is excellent now- he gets defenses to jump a little so he can identify pass rushers vs droppers, RPO technique is coming along nicely, leadership, INT's WAY down last 10 games, looking off safeties, leadership.

 

Oh and WINS.   

[dave mcbride]

16 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

Parcells wasn't a scam artist.

 

He felt like the more full control he had and less outside variables he had to deal with the more likely he would succeed.

 

Belichick obviously feels the same way. 

 

Implementing it is another story but Buffalo is a perfect place for someone who can pull it off to be in position to do it.

Um ... I don’t think Gerry is saying Parcells is the scam artist!,

[Stank_Nasty]

16 hours ago, Socal-805 said:

 

 

Where do you feel he has specifically improved from year 1 to year 2?  I am asking for your view or perception, because although I am seeing SOME improvement, there is no huge leap that is apparent:  he is taking fewer BIG hits.

 

o  he was sacked 28 X last year, and already he has been sacked 34 X this year.

o  he is on pace for about the same number of INTS.

o  fumbling remains an issue.

o  Pct % completion has gone up, but still below 60 %.

o  passing games was 31st in league last year, 27th in league this year.

 

 

 

Did you really just talk about him being on pace for the same amount of picks? That’s a horrible comparison. He only played 11 games last year and will most likely play all 16 this year. 

[dave mcbride]

22 minutes ago, Mc1320 said:

Here are the stats you seem to be ignoring:

 

Completion percentage up 7.5% in Year 2

Quarterback Rating increased by 20 points in Year 2

Four 4th quarter comebacks and five game winning drives both tied for first in the NFL with Russell Wilson

 

Take away the 3-4 drops in the Baltimore game and what is his completion percentage then? 

I counted an equal number of drops in the SF and Atlanta game by *both* teams (if not more). Point is, every team has drops every week and the Bills aren truly nothing special in that regard. The Steelers had I think 3 too. And that’s why you don’t start subtracting drops to goose your favored qb’s completion percentage. I’d avoid doing that. Drops are inevitable in almost all football games - “the friction of war,” to quote Clausewitz.

Edited December 19, 2019 by dave mcbride