2020 NFL Free Agents

[MrSarcasm]

Just now, thebandit27 said:

 

Mark Ingram?

 

I still agree with you; just answering the question is all

I'd have to disagree. Mark Ingram didn't get top 3 money like Henry is expected to get. Bell was the top FA back last year and well look at that situation and I'd expect Henry to get what Melvin Gordon was offered st the start of the season, about 10 mil per year AKA too much

 

Ingrams contract  3 years 15 mil. Base of 5 mil

 

Bells contract  4 years 52.5. Up to 61 mil incentive

[Dkollidas]

1 hour ago, Chuck Wagon said:

 

 

That approach would be a waste and a terrible idea.  A passable QB on a rookie deal is the most valuable asset in the league.  Especially given our success this year we need to do what Philly and the Rams did and load up on impact FAs with deals that will clear by the time we are really into extending our young core.

It has its pluses and minuses. 
 

The Rams Also made the mistake of using up a ton of draft capital as well. They now have an expensive veteran laden roster with no 1st round picks for 2018, 2019 or 2020. That’s going to hurt them badly in two years.

 

The Eagles have also been hurt by this idea.  They won a super bowl, yes. But their long term stability is in question. They lack weapons on offense, their defense is good but not great, and their QB hasn’t been able to carry them as much this season. 
 

Both are still very good teams. I’d rather build more like New England, Pittsburgh, Baltimore have been for years. Have a QB who can make plays at the end of tight games (pre-Lamar Flacco has enough arm that they were always in tight games), and have a legit defense that is loaded with top-tier talent. Pay your own guys at their real value and anyone who wants retail market money can do that in free agency. 
 

this is the main reason I believe they’ll lose Spain and keep Lawson & Phillips. Lawson and Phillips really seem to be buying into the process, and the team concept. Phillips knows what it’s like to play in a big city where you don’t fit the scheme/room like when he was in Miami. He sees that here, and I’m sure he talks to Lawson about that a lot, as they seem to be good buddies.

 

Also, giving Jordan Phillips money on a 3-4yr deal will time well that when his deal is up, it will be time to shift that money to Oliver anyways.

 

DE is in the same boat as Lawson will basically make Trent Murphy money (maybe a little more at this point), and Murphy will either only have one year left, or could even be cut.

 

Offensive line on the other hand is one of the most needed positions in the league. But guard is arguably the least valued positions. At Center they just gave big money to Morse. They’ll need to give big money to Dawkins as well. Feliciano is the better guard and should be paid first. Long is a serviceable player they have as well. They can also continue to draft and develop guys along the offensive line as well. 

As for UFA’s, they won’t spend huge because those guys who want big money also want term and even moreso now want more guaranteed money as well, making those contract harder to shed at the end, further limiting organizational flexibility. Also, big money free agents tend to set new records for salary at their position, as Morse did last season. Now that’s ok to do once in a while at a position of need, especially if the player is top-5 or so at their position, and I feel Morse is basically that. Cooper though is not in the group of guys like Michael Thomas, Julio Jones, DeAndre Hopkins, etc. but he’ll make close to that kind of money. 
 

I believe Beane and McDermott will pick their spots carefully. They’ll go after some mid-level free agents.
Geronimo Allison, previously mentioned, could be one. 

Alex Collins who ran for nearly 1000yds a couple years ago with the Ravens.

Some mid-level depth offensive line free agents. 
A guy like Vic Beasley could be a cheap option to try to do some of the things Lorenzo does. 
Josh Norman could be a corner candidate if he’s cut by Carolina and Kevin Johnson is not re signed. 
 

But really, we have a pretty strong roster, that’s very talented and deep on defense, and has good young pieces on offense, a solid, if unspectacular offensive line, and basically a need for a few key pieces to really turn into a strong group.

 

This roster does not require $18M/yr WR and $15M/yr OT roster surgery. 
 

This team needs to just continue taking it’s mid-level free agents (over the counter medicine?) and continue eating a healthy diet of well made draft picks. 

[DCOrange]

7 minutes ago, Dkollidas said:

Very long post

Alex Collins was on my list of RBs to pursue last offseason and Josh Norman was on my list of potential trade candidates coming into the year (before he seemingly fell flat on his face again). I still think both of them would make a decent amount of sense.

[Bookie Man]

"The Dragon" is on that list?! That's my #1.

[Lagoon Blues]

1 hour ago, stosh64 said:

I'm just thankful I have complete faith (finally) in McBeane to bring in the right people to keep this team a contender for years to come and that these decisions are out of my hands.

I enjoy the off season almost as much as the regular season now.:)

It feels odd doesn't it. 

Edited December 17, 2019 by Lagoon Blues

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

11 hours ago, JGMcD2 said:

I don't expect us to target any of the big fish in free agency. We are going to take a similar approach as we did this season... spread it around. I have a feeling that there will be an emphasis on hammering out contract extensions for OUR core players this offseason - that is where the big money will go. It will primarily be future money.

 

I'm going to take some numbers off Spotrac here to give an idea... it won't be anything exact, instead more of a rough outline of what I expect.

 

Tre White 

 

 

5 yrs, $70,579,070

Avg. Salary: $14,115,814

 

Matt Milano

 

4 yrs, $53,325,792

Avg. Salary: $13,331,448

 

Dion Dawkins

 

5 yrs, $38,500,000 

Avg. Salary: $7,700,000

 

Jordan Poyer

 

4 yrs, $27,000,000 

Avg. Salary:  $6,750,000

 

I also expect the following Buffalo Bills free agents to be retained:

 

Jordan Phillips

 

3 year, $30,000,000

Avg. Salary: $10,000,000

 

Shaq Lawson

 

3 yrs, $22,500,000

Avg. Salary: $7,500,000

 

Senorise Perry (UFA) ~ $800,000

Dean Marlowe (RFA) ~ $1,900,000

Isaiah McKenzie (RFA) ~ $1,900,000

Jason Croom (ERFA) ~ $585,000

Levi Wallace (ERFA) ~ $660,000

Robert Foster (ERFA) ~ $660,000

 

 

After resigning the eight free agents listed above, our offseason roster would sit at 50/90 players. I have reason to believe we would sign the eleven players on our practice squad to futures deals, meaning our roster would sit at 61/90 players. Factor in our nine draft picks (although I believe we will only make 5-6 picks) our roster BEFORE signing any free agents outside of our own organization is set to include 70/90 players allowed in the preseason.

 

The deals I listed out above would cost us roughly $24 million and then about $10M for draft picks that would leave us with $55 million available to spend in 2020. Phillips and Lawson would be the only MAJOR deals that would impact our 2020 cap situation. The rest would take effect in 2021 seeing that White, Milano, Dawkins and Poyer are all controlled through 2020. 

 

Here are some players I reasonably believe that we could target this offseason;

 

Matt Breida, RB (RFA)

Geronimo Allison, WR (UFA)

Demarcus Robinson, WR (UFA)

Kendrick Bourne, WR (RFA)

Vic Beasley, DE (UFA)

Jadeveon Clowney, DE (UFA)

Deone Bucannon, LB (UFA)

De'Vondre Campbell, LB (UFA)

James Bradberry, CB (UFA)

Trae Waynes, CB (UFA)

 

 

 

 

 

I like these 3. Is the chargers Watt Brother any good? 

[JGMcD2]

30 minutes ago, Chuck Wagon said:

 

 

It rarely ever works?  The last 2 NFC Champs followed the model, adding an influx of FA talent to a team with a young QB and the Patriots are one of the most active teams in FA.  Eschewing FA puts you in a purgatory like the Packers existed in the last several years.

It’s not a sustainable model and now they’re trending downward... they’re going to have to go through the process we just went through because it’s not sustainable. I never ever suggested that we’d avoid free agency, I suggested that we would approach free agency much like we did this year - avoiding splashy names and big spending.
 

Adding an influx of talent is different than breaking the bank for a “superstar free agent” which you suggested we do instead of spreading it around. You can go to any sports, those big money deals in free agency rarely work out... players don’t survive the life of the contract and end up getting cut or eating cap space/payroll that could be used to extend younger core players. 
 

Let’s look at 2018 and 2019 free agency and the biggest non-QB contracts handed out. 

 

2018:

Trumaine Johnson 5/$72.5M 

Andrew Norwell 5/$66.5M

Nate Solder 4/$62M 

Malcolm Butler 5/$61.125M

Star Lotulelei 5/$50M 

Sammy Watkins 3/$48M 

 

2019:

Tre Flowers 5/$90M 

CJ Moseley 5/$85M 

Landon Collins 6/$85M

Anthony Barr 5/$67.5M

Za’Darius Smith 4/$66M

Trenton Brown 4/$66M 

Earl Thomas 4/$55M

 

 

 

[JGMcD2]

19 minutes ago, Over 29 years of fanhood said:

 

I like these 3. Is the chargers Watt Brother any good? 

I believe he is a fullback. Not sure we’d be interested. 

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

Anyone consider trying to do what the Ravens are doing? Their three TE's have a combined 112 receptions while their top 2 WRs only combine for 71 receptions. Compare that the Bills and our top three TE's only have 36 receptions total and our 2 WRs combine for 131 receptions. Jackson is throwing the majority of his passes to 6'4" and 6'5" Tight Ends. Four out of Allen's top 5 pass catchers are all 5'10" or shorter. It's hard to think of any QB's, even the greats who have gotten it done with so many small receivers. I guess if nothing else, it's a good opportunity for Allen to really work on his accuracy with these little guys and once our receivers average about 6'0" his completion percentage might jump up.

 

 

[Chuck Wagon]

1 hour ago, JGMcD2 said:

It’s not a sustainable model and now they’re trending downward... they’re going to have to go through the process we just went through because it’s not sustainable. I never ever suggested that we’d avoid free agency, I suggested that we would approach free agency much like we did this year - avoiding splashy names and big spending.
 

Adding an influx of talent is different than breaking the bank for a “superstar free agent” which you suggested we do instead of spreading it around. You can go to any sports, those big money deals in free agency rarely work out... players don’t survive the life of the contract and end up getting cut or eating cap space/payroll that could be used to extend younger core players. 
 

Let’s look at 2018 and 2019 free agency and the biggest non-QB contracts handed out. 

 

2018:

Trumaine Johnson 5/$72.5M 

Andrew Norwell 5/$66.5M

Nate Solder 4/$62M 

Malcolm Butler 5/$61.125M

Star Lotulelei 5/$50M 

Sammy Watkins 3/$48M 

 

2019:

Tre Flowers 5/$90M 

CJ Moseley 5/$85M 

Landon Collins 6/$85M

Anthony Barr 5/$67.5M

Za’Darius Smith 4/$66M

Trenton Brown 4/$66M 

Earl Thomas 4/$55M

 

 

 

 

 

When did I say "superstar free agent"?  Those guys aren't signing in Buffalo anyway.  

 

In regards to "sustainable model" there's only 1 sustainable model and that's Josh turning into a true franchise QB.  Absent that and especially when he's cheap, the proven model has been acquire as much talent talent around him as possible.  The NFL is about windows of contention.  Look at the Falcons, Panthers or Broncos, you can go from loaded Super Bowl contenders to overpaid rosters one year to the next.  The Eagles captured a title in their window, the Rams got close.  If we make it to the Super Bowl much less win one no one is going to be sitting around saying "yeah but guys, what about sustainability".

 

Being aggressive in FA doesn't mean being the Browns and simply building the best Madden team.  And Beane and co have been aggressive in FA the last 2 years.

Edited December 17, 2019 by Chuck Wagon

[JGMcD2]

9 minutes ago, Chuck Wagon said:

 

 

When did I say "superstar free agent"?  Those guys aren't signing in Buffalo anyway.  

 

In regards to "sustainable model" there's only 1 sustainable model and that's Josh turning into a true franchise QB.  Absent that and especially when he's cheap, the proven model has been acquire as much talent talent around him as possible.  The NFL is about windows of contention.  Look at the Falcons, Panthers or Broncos, you can go from loaded Super Bowl contenders to overpaid rosters one year to the next.  The Eagles captured a title in their window, the Rams got close.  If we make it to the Super Bowl much less win one no one is going to be sitting around saying "yeah but guys, what about sustainability".

 

Being aggressive in FA doesn't mean being the Browns and simply building the best Madden team.  And Beane and co have been aggressive in FA the last 2 years.

Now you're just contradicting yourself and/or proving that you didn't read my post while just decided to tell me that I was wrong.

 

I literally said that we would resign our own guys and then spread the rest of the money around in free agency LIKE WE DID LAST YEAR.

 

My projections after resigning Phillips and Lawson + the other 6-7 guys that were RFA + our draft picks left us with $55M to spend this offseason. Nowhere did I suggest we would sit on the $55M. 

 

You're also just continuing to prove my points lol. Yes, it is about windows of contention so we're going to be careful in free agency and spread it around. We don't want to look like the Falcons, Panthers or Broncos... yet you cited the Eagles and Rams as teams we should emulate... yet they went from loaded Super Bowl contenders to overpaid rosters one year to the next.

Edited December 17, 2019 by JGMcD2

[Chuck Wagon]

8 minutes ago, JGMcD2 said:

Now you're just contradicting yourself and/or proving that you didn't read my post while just decided to tell me that I was wrong.

 

I literally said that we would resign our own guys and then spread the rest of the money around in free agency LIKE WE DID LAST YEAR.

 

My projections after resigning Phillips and Lawson + the other 6-7 guys that were RFA + our draft picks left us with $55M to spend this offseason. Nowhere did I suggest we would sit on the $55M.

 

I very clearly read you want to sign a bunch of "I've heard of him" all-stars to overpaid mid level FA deals.

 

 

Also. You had Clowney on your initial list.  Then replied to me saying it would be ridiculous to sign him.  So.  

 

Edited December 17, 2019 by Chuck Wagon

[JGMcD2]

8 minutes ago, Chuck Wagon said:

 

I very clearly read you want to sign a bunch of "I've heard of him" all-stars to overpaid mid level FA deals.

 

 

Also. You had Clowney on your initial list.  Then replied to me saying it would be ridiculous to sign him.  So.  

 

The only deals I laid out were for our players... I said that I believe we could reasonably TARGET those players. Never suggested what type of deals we would sign them to. It wasn't a list of all the players we would sign nor was it a comprehensive list of all the players we would target. So. 

 

The deals I listed out above would cost us roughly $24 million and then about $10M for draft picks that would leave us with $55 million available to spend in 2020. Phillips and Lawson would be the only MAJOR deals that would impact our 2020 cap situation. The rest would take effect in 2021 seeing that White, Milano, Dawkins and Poyer are all controlled through 2020. 

 

Here are some players I reasonably believe that we could target this offseason;

 

Matt Breida, RB (RFA)

Geronimo Allison, WR (UFA)

Demarcus Robinson, WR (UFA)

Kendrick Bourne, WR (RFA)

Vic Beasley, DE (UFA)

Jadeveon Clowney, DE (UFA)

Deone Bucannon, LB (UFA)

De'Vondre Campbell, LB (UFA)

James Bradberry, CB (UFA)

Trae Waynes, CB (UFA)

 

I also never said it would be ridiculous to sign him. I said the following "If you want Clowney and players of that caliber in FA you better be prepared to shell out 5-6 years.... which means big money in future seasons... which means less flexibility to extend the young core. " 

 

Edited December 17, 2019 by JGMcD2

[Chuck Wagon]

Just now, JGMcD2 said:

The only deals I laid out were for our players... I said that I believe we could reasonably TARGET those players. Never suggested what type of deals we would sign them to. It wasn't a list of all the players we would sign nor was it a comprehensive list of all the players we would target. So. 

 

I also never said it would be ridiculous to sign him. I said the following "If you want Clowney and players of that caliber in FA you better be prepared to shell out 5-6 years.... which means big money in future seasons... which means less flexibility to extend the young core. " 

 

 

 

The Rams haven't had any problem extending their young core.  The problem has been Goff and Gurley turning into pumpkins overnight.  The Saints have operated in "cap hell" for a decade.  Unless the next CBA dramatically changes the salary structure, anyone operating under a cap conservative mindset is showing a lack of understanding.  McBeane should be aggressive and target the best players suited to our team needs.

[BillsFanSD]

3 hours ago, stosh64 said:

I'm just thankful I have complete faith (finally) in McBeane to bring in the right people to keep this team a contender for years to come and that these decisions are out of my hands.

 

Same here -- I'm on board with whatever this FO does.

[JGMcD2]

Just now, Chuck Wagon said:

 

 

The Rams haven't had any problem extending their young core.  The problem has been Goff and Gurley turning into pumpkins overnight.  The Saints have operated in "cap hell" for a decade.  Unless the next CBA dramatically changes the salary structure, anyone operating under a cap conservative mindset is showing a lack of understanding.  McBeane should be aggressive and target the best players suited to our team needs.

Again, if you had just read my post, I wasn't suggesting being cap conservative. Those deals for White and company wouldn't go into effect until 2021... money was being spent... it was just future money. Leaving flexibility for the immediate future to supplement what we have in place. 

[GunnerBill]

6 hours ago, CorkScrewHill said:

The problem with Derrick henry is the cost to sign him (which means money is not being spent elesewhere) and the cliff that RBs almost always hit in their second contract. I can not think of a single high priced RB signing that has worked out for the team (La'veon Bell, Todd Gurley, Doug Martin). Then look at the teams consistently competing for the Super Bowl. They get lower priced guys on prove it deals. Please no Derrick Henry

 

In fairness the Rams made the Superbowl with Gurley on that deal. Not that I am saying it invalidates your point or that I am in favour of signing Henry. 

34 minutes ago, Chuck Wagon said:

 

 

The Rams haven't had any problem extending their young core.  The problem has been Goff and Gurley turning into pumpkins overnight.  The Saints have operated in "cap hell" for a decade.  Unless the next CBA dramatically changes the salary structure, anyone operating under a cap conservative mindset is showing a lack of understanding.  McBeane should be aggressive and target the best players suited to our team needs.

 

Gurley's knee is a problem and Goff turning it over more is a problem. The main problem is the league has completely worked their scheme out. 

[ghostwriter]

Defense
Bud Dupree would be a guy I’d like to take over for Lorenzo. He is a 8 sack per year kind of player. Re-sign Shaq Lawson, dump Murphy. Retain Jordan Phillips. Sign Aqib Talib to a 1 year contract, defense is set.

 

Offense

Draft Jedrick Wills offensive tackle from Alabama. He goes on the right side, Ford goes into LG. Spain walks, Feliciano is signed to a 3 year deal in the neighborhood of $5-6m annually. I’d target a WR in Rd 2. Justin Jefferson preferably, if not Tee Higgins.

 

Retain/Sign/Extend

Dion Dawkins

Matt Milano

TreDavious White

Jordan Phillips

Shaq Lawson

Jon Feliciano 

Jordan Poyer

 

Don’t overspend in free agency, take care of our own guys. Draft em and re-sign them. Pay TreDavious White more than any other corner in the NFL, you won’t find a better corner.

 

 

[ColoradoBills]

8 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I am a big Spain fan but I think he will get a bigger contract next year than he got this year. When you add to that they might well want to move Ford inside.... then I think it allows them to do that and focus on a RT in FA / draft.

 

8 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Spain decision entirely depends on what they think of Ford at RT for me. If they like him enough there to commit to him I think they take a run at Spain. If they don't they let Spain walk and I think Ford is your starting LG next year, and they go with Ty and a mid round pick or a low end FA at RT.

 

Spain and Long (club option) and what their end of year thoughts on Ford will drive everything OL related.

Spain signed a prove it deal and for the most part has proven it.  What him and his agent think he is worth is everything.

His length of contract will also have a huge impact on whether the Bills pursue him.

 

Generally I think FA is highly dependent on what the Bills staff thinks about its depth.  If they like a lot of the depth now I can see

a swing on a big signing or 2.  Not the top 5 FAs but some significant upgrades.

 

Some posters still think that very good FAs still won't want to sign with the Bills.  I think the opposite is true.

Players know the league and Buffalo is going to be a good place to come to next year.  There could be a decent pickup or two of

players wanting to sign a "prove it" deal here.  I am so hoping for that.

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

Guys I'd be interested in by position:

 

QB: Not a free agent, but cut candidate - Andy Dalton

RB: Kenyan Drake - Not sure he'd come here since he probably wants a feature role, but i always thought he was really talented

WR: None of the UFAs really impress me as i doubt we make a run at cooper.  I'd be willing to trade for someone like Diggs or A. Robinson.. but this looks like a position that won't be addressed until the draft

OL: Depends how they see ford.  If they really want to roll him at RT, then i'd say try and bring back spain.  Otherwise Make a run at RT - there's a few names that should be available.

DL: I'd like to keep our own, and probably draft another pass rusher.

LB: Depth needed here, probably an overpay for dupree or judon but they could both add some wrinkles here.